BOB Hawke believes the election is still up in the air because it is unclear how much NSW voters will punish Labor for a "very unpopular" state government that he finds hard to defend.

The former Labor prime minister also told a conference today that leaks against Julia Gillard had damaged the Prime Minister's re-election bid, And he praised Tony Abbott's performance in the campaign - although qualifying his remark by saying “I think he's as mad as a cut snake”.

Mr Hawke told the Financial Services Council conference in Melbourne that while he still believed Labor would win on August 21, the outcome would be close and voters' attitude to NSW Labor could be decisive.

Good candidates in federal seats could suffer because of a “very unpopular government”.

“That feeling against Labor in the state is hard to calculate,” he said. “I find it hard to get up and defend them.”

He recalled the 1990 federal election when Labor lost eight seats in Victoria because of its unpopular state government.

“I know from my own experience that a bad state government can hurt,” he said.

The outcome in Queensland was also uncertain.

Mr Hawke praised Mr Abbott's performance so far, saying he liked him personally but “I think he's as mad as a cut snake”.

“I think Tony Abbott has campaigned much better than people expected,” he said.

“He's exercised a great deal of discipline and I think that's been a plus for the Coalition.”
Mr Hawke said Ms Gillard had suffered because of the leaks against her which had “sucked the air” out of the first half of her campaign.

However, Mr Hawke said an average of recent polls still showed Labor ahead and although he did not bet on elections, he noted the odds offered by betting agencies had always been an accurate predictor of the results and those odds still favoured Labor by a significant margin.

“I think that Labor will get across the line,” he said.