Primary

ALP, Down 6 ... 36%
Coalition, Up 4 ... 45%
Greens, Steady ... 12%


Will Labor now replace Gillard, with Swan?

Abbott seizes the lead


JULIA GILLARD has three weeks in which to salvage her campaign, with the latest Herald/Nielsen poll showing Tony Abbott and the Coalition would be swept to power if the election were held today.

In a stunning reversal of fortunes for the Coalition after a disastrous week for the government, support for both the Prime Minister and Labor has plummeted; the Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

This represents a 6 percentage point two-party swing against the government since the last Herald poll a week ago, and a 4.7 point two-party swing against the government since the last election.

If the result were replicated uniformly in the election on August 21, the Coalition would pick up 28 seats; 11 more than it needs to form government in its own right.

The poll shows Labor's primary vote has gone into freefall, plunging six points in a week to 36 per cent while the Coalition's primary vote rose four points to 45 per cent. The Greens remained steady at 12 per cent.

These numbers are similar to the levels of early June which precipitated the move against Kevin Rudd's leadership.

The 58 per cent to 42 per cent lead that Ms Gillard enjoyed over Mr Abbott among women voters only a week ago has disappeared and the female vote for Labor and the Coalition is now statistically even at 49-51.

Ms Gillard's approval rating slumped five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval rating rose six points to 39 per cent. Mr Abbott's approval rose six points to 49 per cent and his disapproval fell six points to 45 per cent.

Ms Gillard's 21-point lead as preferred prime minister was slashed by 13 points to 49-41. Her rating fell six points and Mr Abbott's rose seven points.

The only good news for the government was that 69 per cent expect it will win the election -

four points lower than a week ago - while only 21 per cent, up five points, are backing the Coalition.

In extraordinary developments yesterday, Cheryl Kernot confirmed she had nominated for the Senate as an independent (see story, page 7) and Kevin Rudd was admitted to hospital to have his gall bladder removed.

But the former prime minister raised hopes among Labor by saying that when released from hospital, he would bury the hatchet and campaign with Ms Gillard across the nation if needed.

Labor desperately needs Mr Rudd's help in the pivotal state of Queensland where it is struggling. The Herald reported yesterday that Mr Rudd had been approached.

''Mr Rudd looks forward to resuming campaign activities next week - both in his own electorate, elsewhere in Queensland and the rest of the country as appropriate - in support of the re-election of the government and Prime Minister Gillard,'' his spokesman said.

Ms Gillard was enthused: ''I've always said I wanted to respect Kevin Rudd's wishes about the campaign.

''Obviously, I would welcome his campaigning efforts.''

The poll of 1356 voters was taken from Tuesday night to Thursday night. It encompassed the darkest two days of the campaign for the government which were dominated by damaging cabinet leaks against Ms Gillard, for which Mr Rudd was blamed.

Ms Gillard was accused of arguing against pension increases and paid parental leave. She denied both charges but the allegations were damaging. One MP said yesterday voters in his electorate were scared Ms Gillard would cut pensions if re-elected.

A further embarrassing leak emerged last night with News Ltd reporting that Ms Gillard had sent a former bodyguard, Andrew Stark, to represent her at meetings of the cabinet's national security committee while she was deputy prime minister.

Although the samples are small, the poll shows that among voters aged over 55, support for Labor dived from 38 per cent to 31 per cent in a week and jumped from 49 per cent to 57 per cent for the Coalition.

Also since the last poll there have been the leaders' debate, in which Mr Abbott performed better than expected, and Ms Gillard's widely derided announcement of a citizens' assembly to help develop a community consensus on emissions trading.

The poll finds that 79 per cent of voters are unlikely to change their views before the election. This is the level recorded at the same stage of the 2004 and 2007 campaigns. It indicates 21 per cent could still be influenced by events of the next three weeks.


http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-seizes-the-lead-20100730-10zsa.html?autostart=1

Since Gillard is polling similar to Kevin Rudd, when he was stabbed in the back ... can we expect the faceless Labor committee to dump Gillard and promote Wayne Swan.


Or maybe Labor will now retract their inaction on climate change and commit to a Greens' carbon price.


Or Labor is heading for the political wilderness again ... 12 years wasn't long enough for them?

____ wrote on Jul 31^st, 2010 at 4:23am:


Unless we have a hung parliament with the balance of power to the Greens - if Labor is thrown into the political wilderness - so are the Greens at this point.

The Liberals have distanced themselves altogether from the Greens, so if the Coalition win with a majority - the Greens don't have much of a chance of pushing their policies through.

mantra wrote on Jul 31^st, 2010 at 8:23am:


_/_/_/



Really?


Greens will likely hold the balance in the Senate, so if Abbott wins, he will have a choice of either being a lame duck P.M ... or negotiating with either Labor opposition Senators or Greens Senators to get his legislation through the upper house..

I am sure he is aware Labor Senators will do to him, what Liberals did to Labor over their dirty dirty C.P.R.S.


If Adam Bandt and/or other Green Candidates win House Of Reps seats, Liberals may decide to keep Greens close by offering a seat in their cabinet to Greens, as a way of getting negotiations going to get Liberal Legislation through the Senate.  

George wrote on Jul 31^st, 2010 at 8:30am:



_/_/_/


Incorrect

Greens policies will give certainty for business.

How will a Liberal maybe we will / maybe we wont put a price on carbon give certainty to electricity suppliers to invest in electricity infrastructure. Do Liberals really want rolling black / brown outs at the next federal election just because they failed to give certainty to electricity suppliers.


Liberal Electricity Shortages are bad for the economy ... bad for Business.

Liberal are ignoring electricity like they ignored the Murray Darling Basin, last time they were in government



Just look at the Murray - Darling Basin ... Federal Liberal inaction are the cause of it's collapse.

ellis wrote on Jul 31^st, 2010 at 9:17am:



_/_/_/


Green preferences go where voters decide.

Are you saying Liberal voters are unable to mark their voting card to reflect their vote ellis? Are you saying Liberal Voters are stupid?


Liberal Voters who vote Greens 1 and then Liberals 2 double their vote since no Liberal electorate is likely to go to the Greens this election.


Here is the best opportunity for (small l) Liberals to tell Tony Abbott to moderate his extremism and also get real and act on human caused climate change. All by voting Greens and preference Liberals above Labor.

____ wrote on Jul 31^st, 2010 at 9:32am:


Greens' voters may care enough to number their ballot paper carefully, but other voters might not. If Labor and the Greens are swapping preferences - they stand more of a chance of getting the balance of power.

Liberals will not be giving the Greens any preferences - so by giving the Liberals our second preference - it will be wasted. As FD pointed out earlier (or someone did) - the Greens are scattered all over the country, not accumulated in any area specifically as are the Nationals.

They need all the help they can get.

Should anyone not be aware of their "policies" check out their web site.

The fact they are in bed with the ALP gives you an insight into the party