Australian Politics Forum - For the Record

perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #600 - Dec 17^th, 2011 at 8:32am

ANZ severs historical RBA interest rate link

ANZ will adjust interest rates more often and by smaller amounts after severing the historical link with monthly Reserve Bank announcements on monetary policy.

Warning that the global economic situation had deteriorated in recent months, chief executive Mike Smith said yesterday that ANZ would have to assess the competitive impact of its new pricing policy to minimise any loss of customers.

"What we should be seeing is more frequent adjustments in small amounts, going up and down," he said after ANZ's annual meeting in Sydney.

"We have to get ourselves off this urban myth that our funding is linked to the cash rate; it's only one element" of the equation.

Global uncertainty fanned by the turmoil in Europe was likely to be around for "several years". This was echoed by chairman John Morschel, who said eurozone stagnation could continue "for as long as a decade".

Mr Smith rated the prospect of recession in Australia as "very, very low". The same applied to a potential credit squeeze.

ANZ, like the other major banks, had reduced its reliance on offshore wholesale funding and was now 61 per cent funded by deposits.

"There is a massive credit crunch in Europe, as banks are shrinking their balance sheets very fast, and of course that's exacerbating the problem because there's no oxygen for growth," Mr Smith said.

"So Europe has got an issue. In Australia we don't have that problem.

"If credit markets in Europe were to stay closed for another six months, then that would be a different thing, but I am not that pessimistic."

The cost of funding, he said, was again rising, "if indeed it is available at all".

Link -
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/anz-severs-historical-rba-int...
=================================

And so, let the games begin!

I would suggest that the ANZ will not be the only bank moving on this rates issue!

These guys are full of spin or just full of it!

There is no chance that the current circumstances in Europe & the USA are not going to flow on to other countries such as China and Australia!

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #601 - Dec 17^th, 2011 at 8:37am

BNP retreats from Australian loans

In the midst of a scramble by European banks to strengthen capital positions, French bank BNP Paribas is retreating from syndicated loans in Australia, according to a report by The Australian.

In making its retreat, BNP has withdrawn from the $3.7 billion syndicated loan for the Victorian desalination plant and closed-out its leading $230 million participation in the $2.1 billion financing for Sevenwest Media, the report said.

Other Australian syndicated loans, including the Royal Adelaide Hospital and the port business, DP World, and funding for companies such as Wesfarmers and Healthscope have also been affected by the retreat of European banks.

A spokeswoman for BNP said the bank remained committed to the Australian market, but said it had to adapt its loan book to reflect the changing regulatory landscape, according to The Australian.

Link -
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/BNP-retreats-from-Australian-...
================================
"So Europe has got an issue. In Australia we don't have that problem." - Per ANZ Bank

Oh Really?

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Ex Dame Pansi Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24168	Re: For the Record Reply #602 - Dec 17^th, 2011 at 9:34am Mr Smith said he rated the chance of a recession in Australia as "low, very low". lol @ Mr Smith considering.......... 39,900 Australians lost jobs in November that's a lot for our population.
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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #603 - Dec 18^th, 2011 at 3:56pm

Comprehensive euro zone deal "beyond reach": Fitch

(Reuters) - A comprehensive solution to the euro zone debt crisis is beyond the region's reach, rating agency Fitch said, warning that six of its economies including Italy and Spain could be hit with credit downgrades in the near future.

The warning late Friday, the second time in two weeks that the bloc has been threatened with multiple ratings markdowns, heightened pressure on leaders to get to grips with the turmoil.

Fitch also said it might also cut AAA-rated France within two years and urged the European Central Bank to take a more active firefighting role.

One ECB policymaker said Saturday that time was running out to come up with solutions to a crisis that could spark a global slump. Another said the bank would not expand the bond buying program it launched to keep a lid on vulnerable states' debt costs.

"The worse scenario is that the negative cycle continues, uncertainty grows, which would lead to a global recession," Liikanen - a member of the bank's governing council -told Finnish public broadcaster YLE in an interview Saturday.

International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde had said no country was immune from the crisis and each needed to act to head off the risk of a global depression.

In a swipe against Germany, Italy's Monti said Europe's response "should be wrapped in a long-term sustainable approach, not just to feed short-term hunger for rigor in some countries."

Pushing for governments to eliminate their bloated budget deficits, Germany has led resistance to allowing the ECB to ramp up its bond purchases to a big enough scale to douse the crisis.

But Fitch added to the pressure for just such a move.

The agency said that, following the EU summit, it had concluded that "a 'comprehensive solution' to the eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach."

Link -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/17/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7BF0OX20111217
=================================
You just wonder sometimes, you really do wonder?

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Grey

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Re: For the Record
Reply #604 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 11:36am

qikvtec wrote on Dec 13^th, 2011 at 9:50am:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Dec 12^th, 2011 at 6:54am:

Grey wrote on Dec 11^th, 2011 at 7:36pm:

qikvtec wrote on Dec 3^rd, 2011 at 10:45am:

Ever get the feeling you are posting to yourself PN?

It's never removed from my favourites and I check it every few days, I bet I'm not the lone ranger. I don't have much to add, sometimes I say something innocuous to show I've been, but it's a very useful service PN supplies as far as I'm concerned.

Please keep posting this valuable information PN. Although I could probably find it on the internet myself, it is much easier to come to the one thread where you know the updates are posted regularly. We also have a timeline. I wish I had have kept the thread from Yahoo message boards.

I bet you had trouble accepting flush toilets too qikvtec.

I have never seen anything but flush toilets; if you are old enough to remember using a thunderbox you should be wise enough to see through this financial Armageddon crap; you've probably been through 10-15 major financial crisis, each one worst than the last, and throughout all of them the same old crap gets spewed out; "It's different this time".
We'll innovate or we'll die; it really is that simple.

The most endearing part of this spam is it's contained to one post.

Yeah lived through financial downturns. I don't remember a mantra of 'this one is different' with any of them though I'd guess some obscure analyst said it somewhere. This time everybody is saying it except you. Go figure.

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"It is in the shelter of each other that the people live" - Irish Proverb

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qikvtec

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Re: For the Record
Reply #605 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 11:59am

Grey wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 11:36am:

qikvtec wrote on Dec 13^th, 2011 at 9:50am:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Dec 12^th, 2011 at 6:54am:

Grey wrote on Dec 11^th, 2011 at 7:36pm:

qikvtec wrote on Dec 3^rd, 2011 at 10:45am:

Ever get the feeling you are posting to yourself PN?

It's never removed from my favourites and I check it every few days, I bet I'm not the lone ranger. I don't have much to add, sometimes I say something innocuous to show I've been, but it's a very useful service PN supplies as far as I'm concerned.

Please keep posting this valuable information PN. Although I could probably find it on the internet myself, it is much easier to come to the one thread where you know the updates are posted regularly. We also have a timeline. I wish I had have kept the thread from Yahoo message boards.

I bet you had trouble accepting flush toilets too qikvtec.

I have never seen anything but flush toilets; if you are old enough to remember using a thunderbox you should be wise enough to see through this financial Armageddon crap; you've probably been through 10-15 major financial crisis, each one worst than the last, and throughout all of them the same old crap gets spewed out; "It's different this time".
We'll innovate or we'll die; it really is that simple.

The most endearing part of this spam is it's contained to one post.

Yeah lived through financial downturns. I don't remember a mantra of 'this one is different' with any of them though I'd guess some obscure analyst said it somewhere. This time everybody is saying it except you. Go figure.

Did you have any skin in the game in the last financial crashes?

November 2, 1987

March 5, 1984

Jan 13, 1992

September 28, 1992

May I suggest having a read of Sir John Marks Templetons sage advice.

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Politicians and Nappies need to be changed often and for the same reason.

One trouble with political jokes is that they often get elected.

Alan Joyce for PM

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: For the Record
Reply #606 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 12:29pm

If you're not reading the signs it's your fault qikvtec and if I'm reading them wrong it's my fault. If it doesn't happen, I'm prepared and if it does happen, I'm prepared, but in the end the signs are all there for a major economic collapse.

Europe has nowhere to go and if Europe has nowhere to go, the UK and America have nowhere to go and so on and so on until it reaches us.

The debt is there, but the funds are not. Work that one out if you're a good economist.

Have you actually looked at the European, American, uk debt qikvtec?

How would you pay it?

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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Grey

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Re: For the Record
Reply #607 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 12:57pm

Quote:

Did you have any skin in the game in the last financial crashes?

No, I always invest in what I'm doing. Playing MONOPOLY tm. as a life has never interested me, beyond keeping an eye on things. I did consider 'cashing up' in 2007 but the wife was against it. She said (quite rightly) "the value of the family home is in being a home, so the value on paper is irrelevant".

Quote:

May I suggest having a read of Sir John Marks Templetons sage advice.

Quote:

Sir John had accurately predicted the dot-com crash of 2000 and 2001. When I met him again for the last time in December of 2004, he was warning that the housing bubble would eventually crash, with home prices falling by as much as 50 percent or more from their highs in some markets.

He predicted a fall-off of the stock market after that.

Both predictions were not widely accepted at the time, yet they eventually came to pass.

In his last memorandum on the markets and the economy, he elaborated on these same themes, warning of dire economic “chaos” — which he predicted would last many years.

Still, he was optimistic on equity investments, specifically in globally diverse companies with high growth patterns and wide profit margins.

He suggested such stocks would remain “valuable” for investors to preserve and grow one’s wealth.http://www.newsmax.com/Ruddy/john-templeton-John-Templeton/2010/03/09/id/352142

I don't share his optimism in 'blue chips'. Nobody can predict the patterns created by flushing, especially when they're still pissing in the bowl. The pass the parcel game of global securities packages which include Two Quadrillion dollars worth of derivatives doesn't stack up against, for example a US GDP of 14 Trillion.

The financial markets are not suffering from a 'bubble' like an inflated price for tulips. It's now in the realm of general nonsense . I haven't the faintest idea what the future holds, (other than chaos) and I say anybody that does is a damned liar.

What's needed is vision and a sharp scalpel to cut out the rot, all I see is a lot of headless chickens. Grin

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"It is in the shelter of each other that the people live" - Irish Proverb

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #608 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 12:58pm

China Economy May Drag World Down

My column of June 24, 2011 ("China Yield Inversion May Portend Economic Slowdown") opened with the following sentence:

“The yield on Chinese bonds are inverting at an accelerating rate. This does not portend well for the Chinese economy, and this may have negative implications globally.”

China’s contribution to global economic growth this year is nearly 40%.

The reason: property construction in China boomed significantly during the previous decade.

The Chinese government controls all the allocation of land. Beginning in 1998, Chinese authorities permitted individuals to buy the “right” to use property for 70 years. Domestic capital controls, which limited investment outside China, increased demand for this asset.

As a result, property construction boomed. The increased supply resulted in high levels of employment, income, and demand for residential and commercial properties.

The problem: insufficient demand to absorb the excess investment in property development.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics in China, real estate development for 2011 will total nearly $1 trillion, a 32% increase over last year. This investment represents approximately 15% of GDP, as calculated by the World Bank.

According to Jonathan Anderson of UBS, this is “the single most important sector in the entire global economy, in terms of its impact on the rest of the world.”

The reason: significant, productive economic activity is dependent on this sector.

Forty percent of Chinese steel use is related to property construction. China produces more steel than the next 10 steel producing countries combined, deeming it the most important procurer of iron ore, a key input for steel manufacturing.

Other essential steel manufacturing inputs are copper, cement, coal, and power generation. These activities generate a significant amount of income that is used to purchase global products and services.

Today, the average home price in China equals 9 times average annual income. The price for luxury apartments in Versailles Residentiel de Luxe La Grand Maison, located in the city of Wenzhou, are 350 times average annual income.

The perspective: at the peak of the U.S. real estate bubble, this ratio was 5.1. It is currently near 3, the historic average.

Using the current income level in China, real estate prices would need to fall by two thirds to be sustainably priced. Should income rise 50% in the coming decade (4% per annum), prices could fall 50% to achieve a stable equilibrium.

In the past year, real estate transactions (sales) and prices have fallen dramatically. At the current rate, prices may drop 50% within over the coming decade.

This decline has been due to low income demand at the current price level and the tremendous supply of inventory (approximately 20 years based on current vacancies, pending projects, and future population projections).

Demand for property development is decreasing. Less construction translates into lower income, personal, corporate, and governmental (local government derives 40% of its income from property sales). Smaller incomes suggest lower demand for global products and services.

In addition, lower property values imply less collateral for future credit, thereby limiting growth prospects.

This portends poorly for the global economy.

China’s annual trade surplus has been halved since 2008 to roughly $150 billion. This reflects a decrease in export and import growth, with exports declining at a greater rate. This decline is partially a manifestation of decreased demand by the eurozone and China’s domestic market.

In recent years, China increased the required reserve ratio for bank deposits to limit monetary growth, reduce aggregate demand, and minimize inflationary pressures.

However, due to the impending global economic slowdown, China recently reduced the reserve requirement to foster economic growth.

Deleveraging of the massive global debt, which is 3 times global income, will reduce monetary velocity (transactions) and income over the next decade.

Increases in monetary aggregates, credit, and liquidity may provide meager assistance in the immediate term.
In fact, it will delay, and possibly exacerbate, the underlying economic dysfunction, thereby extending anemic global growth for years to come.

Moreover, the increased money supply, without much increase in value added product supply, will increase transaction demand for existing products, thereby placing upward price pressures.

Lower government revenues may require additional debt issuance at higher interest rates to attract scarce capital. Existing economies of scale may not be sufficient to offset a possible increase in borrowing costs. Upward pressure on retail prices may result, creating an inflationary spiral.

Global stagflation may be the new paradigm over the coming decade.

Link -
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32185.html
==================================
Well, the Chinese Economy certainly has been very significant in a Global context, certainly over the last few decades.

However, it has been slipping already (as shown in the chart at the following site), due to falling Global Demand and I strongly suspect that the current trends will not turn around, any time soon!
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#symbol=000001.ss;range=6m;compar...

Btw, OZ shareholders are again having an off day!

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qikvtec

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Re: For the Record
Reply #609 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:12pm

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 12:29pm:

If you're not reading the signs it's your fault qikvtec and if I'm reading them wrong it's my fault. If it doesn't happen, I'm prepared and if it does happen, I'm prepared, but in the end the signs are all there for a major economic collapse.

Europe has nowhere to go and if Europe has nowhere to go, the UK and America have nowhere to go and so on and so on until it reaches us.

The debt is there, but the funds are not. Work that one out if you're a good economist.

Have you actually looked at the European, American, uk debt qikvtec?

How would you pay it?

If I'm wrong my investments will be worthless as will your cash, any gold will need to be converted to currency which will be equally worthless; either way neither of us will care.

If I'm right however I'll be rolling in it.

Tony Abbott is an economist.

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Politicians and Nappies need to be changed often and for the same reason.

One trouble with political jokes is that they often get elected.

Alan Joyce for PM

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Ex Dame Pansi Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24168	Re: For the Record Reply #610 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:20pm <<Tony Abbott is an economist. >> So is Ben Bernanke lol
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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #611 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:21pm

qikvtec wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:12pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 12:29pm:

If you're not reading the signs it's your fault qikvtec and if I'm reading them wrong it's my fault. If it doesn't happen, I'm prepared and if it does happen, I'm prepared, but in the end the signs are all there for a major economic collapse.

Europe has nowhere to go and if Europe has nowhere to go, the UK and America have nowhere to go and so on and so on until it reaches us.

The debt is there, but the funds are not. Work that one out if you're a good economist.

Have you actually looked at the European, American, uk debt qikvtec?

How would you pay it?

If I'm wrong my investments will be worthless as will your cash, any gold will need to be converted to currency which will be equally worthless; either way neither of us will care.

If I'm right however I'll be rolling in it.

Tony Abbott is an economist.

Is that meant to be comforting?

Because, none of the other Economists have any idea what's going on, either!

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qikvtec

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Re: For the Record
Reply #612 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:34pm

perceptions_now wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:21pm:

qikvtec wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:12pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 12:29pm:

If you're not reading the signs it's your fault qikvtec and if I'm reading them wrong it's my fault. If it doesn't happen, I'm prepared and if it does happen, I'm prepared, but in the end the signs are all there for a major economic collapse.

Europe has nowhere to go and if Europe has nowhere to go, the UK and America have nowhere to go and so on and so on until it reaches us.

The debt is there, but the funds are not. Work that one out if you're a good economist.

Have you actually looked at the European, American, uk debt qikvtec?

How would you pay it?

If I'm wrong my investments will be worthless as will your cash, any gold will need to be converted to currency which will be equally worthless; either way neither of us will care.

If I'm right however I'll be rolling in it.

Tony Abbott is an economist.

Is that meant to be comforting?

Because, none of the other Economists have any idea what's going on, either!

My point exactly, so why would anyone put any faith in them?

A stopped watch is right twice a day.

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Politicians and Nappies need to be changed often and for the same reason.

One trouble with political jokes is that they often get elected.

Alan Joyce for PM

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perceptions_now

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Re: For the Record
Reply #613 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:45pm

qikvtec wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:34pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:21pm:

qikvtec wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 1:12pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Dec 19^th, 2011 at 12:29pm:

If you're not reading the signs it's your fault qikvtec and if I'm reading them wrong it's my fault. If it doesn't happen, I'm prepared and if it does happen, I'm prepared, but in the end the signs are all there for a major economic collapse.

Europe has nowhere to go and if Europe has nowhere to go, the UK and America have nowhere to go and so on and so on until it reaches us.

The debt is there, but the funds are not. Work that one out if you're a good economist.

Have you actually looked at the European, American, uk debt qikvtec?

How would you pay it?

If I'm wrong my investments will be worthless as will your cash, any gold will need to be converted to currency which will be equally worthless; either way neither of us will care.

If I'm right however I'll be rolling in it.

Tony Abbott is an economist.

Is that meant to be comforting?

Because, none of the other Economists have any idea what's going on, either!

My point exactly, so why would anyone put any faith in them?

A stopped watch is right twice a day.

I have as much "faith" in 99% of Economists, as I have in 99% of Politicians, which is exactly zero!

So, Tony receives a double whammy, as he is both!

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perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: For the Record Reply #614 - Dec 19^th, 2011 at 4:40pm ALL ORDINARIES 4,113.90 -104.90 http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXASX:XAO It must have been all too much for Etrade, as their website seems to have gone missing, in the action?
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