qikvtec wrote on Dec 5^th, 2011 at 9:35pm:


Well, I agree, there are quite a few that will lose their shorts & the shirts off their backs and that is a certainty!

With one month to go in the data series, US Total Non-Farm Payrolls have averaged 131.08 million in 2011. The problem is that the US is a Very Large System, and needs growth to support its array of future obligations, primarily Social Security and the debt it incurs to run its military budget, and other entitlements.

If you had told someone ten years ago that Total Non-Farm Payrolls would be at similar levels in 2011, that likely would have sounded impossible, or extreme. But the fact is, US Total Non-Farm Payrolls averaged 131.83 million ten years ago, in 2001. The implications for this lack of growth are quite dire. | see: United States Total Non-Farm Payrolls in Millions (seasonally adjusted) 2001-2011.


With less economic growth, and no growth in global oil production leading to permanently higher oil prices, the United States is trying to operate its Empire at previous levels. Now you know why the country along with the rest of the West has gone more deeply into debt. The population keeps growing, obligations keep expanding, inputs costs keep rising. But growth keeps slowing. | see: Global Average Annual Crude Oil Production mbpd 2001 – 2011.


Care to forecast the US will return to economic growth, given energy prices and aggregate levels of debt in the OECD nations? Good luck with that. The US could certainly increase taxes, and reduce government spending. But that won’t restore economic growth. How about increasing annual government deficits more rapidly, to double our debt even faster? Good luck with that too. As I have written before, the energy limit and total debt now trump the tiresome argument between Austrians and Keynesians, rendering the conversation moot.

There was a time when many “experts” forecast that oil prices would come back down, and that global oil production would increase. Six years later, you don’t hear much from these people anymore. Their books, asserting there never was or would be an oil crisis, can now be had for .99 cents through used bookstores on the Amazon network. I expect them to be joined by economic revival advocates, no later than mid-decade. Growth in real terms, in the OECD nations, has now basically come to an end.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/311748-the-end-of-growth-in-the-united-states?if...
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Nuff said!

qikvtec wrote on Dec 6^th, 2011 at 1:15pm:


As is the capacity of anyone, if you don't agree with what I post, you can do your own moderating and self impose a ban on reading some or all of what I post?

You are entitled to come to your own conclusions, but others may see things differently.

Btw, as I have indicated previously, what you call negativity, I call realism.  

In any event time will tell, but I suspect many things will become apparent, by the end of 2012!

In the interim, happy posting & happy Christmas! And, happy reading?

Jim Puplava: Joining me as my special guest on the program today is Ann Barnhardt, formerly of Barnhardt Capital Management. And Ann, you were a commodity broker for eight years and then you formed your own independent brokerage for six years. A couple of weeks ago you made the painful decision to shut your doors because you felt your clients' money and positions were no longer safe. What led you to draw those conclusions?

Ann Barnhardt:  Well, obviously, it was the MF global collapse and more specifically the fall out after the MF Global collapse and the reaction by the CFTC, the SEC and most especially by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [the Merc]. The actions, specifically by the Merc after the MF Global collapse were unprecedented, unfathomable and completely and totally intolerable. The Merc itself basically did the equivalent of sticking a nine millimeter in their mouth and pulling the trigger by not stepping forward, backstopping the MF Global client accounts and at the very least, the Merc should have allowed the MF Global customers to liquidate their accounts and then transfer to other firms. What the Merc did was the worst possible thing - they froze those people out of their accounts and didn't allow them to liquidate while the markets continued to trade.

This has never happened before. This was a complete breach of fiduciary duty by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange itself to the point that it literally has destroyed the entire paradigm. I got to the point where I could no longer tell my clients that their free cash customer funds, not even exposed to the market place - just their cash sitting in their account, non-margined - was not safe. I couldn't tell them that their money was safe. At that point it was morally incumbent upon me to get my client out of this completely dysfunctional, basically destroyed marketplace. Get them off of those railroad tracks and get them away from the risk. Now, I didn't clear through MF, but with the European collapse and knowing what we know about how these financial entities are leveraged in European paper and the cascading nature of all of this I had to act before the proverbial poop hit the fan because if you sit around and you wait until after the poop hits the fan it is too late. You wouldn't get anybody out. To me, it wasn't really a painful decision. It was a complete no brainer.

Link -
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/12.11/barnhardt.html
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Its Facist, can't you see it?
Gerald Celente

Two embedded video's in the following link -
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/12.11/fascist.html
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Neither Ann or Gerald are happy!
Neither are happy, with the system!

The above stories remind me of a certain TV advert -


Btw, there is much more to Ann's rant and I recommend you have a read thru the full text, but there was simply too much to post here.  
And, have a look at Gerald's video's, whilst he has some self-interest in the MF story, he still makes some valid points.

qikvtec wrote on Dec 7^th, 2011 at 10:07pm:

How are renewables going to power the Auto transport sector, particularly over the next 30-40 years, which is when a large lump of Oil Supply will be depleting?
And, how will renewables cater for the enormous amount of Products that come from Oil?

Aside from an enormous Growth in Costs, via Health care, for a rapidly aging Global Population, the other big Growth winner over the next 30-40 years will be Funneral Parlours, as some 1.5-2.0 Billion Baby Boomers depart the scene, forever!

But, whilst that may be good for the funeral business sector, it will also depress Demand greatly. So overall, NO there will be NO Growth, in the Local or Global Economy!

perceptions_now wrote on Dec 9^th, 2011 at 8:20am:


I have re-posted the above here, to provide a ready reference of what may be expected on a  Global basis, as Boomers from pretty much every country start to left us forever, over the next 30-40 years.

When it is considered that the recent Global Population has been of the order of 1% annual Growth, to reverse that to a 1% Decline will have a substantial adverse impact on Demand in many sectors.

When this sort of Demand destruction is combined with the effects caused by Peak Energy, Climate Change and the fact that we are already at Peak Global Debt, even at this early point in the sequence of events, it would suggest we are & will continue to experience dliemma's of once in history proportions AND FRANKLY I DOUBT THERE ARE MANY (POLITICIANS OR OTHERS) WHO CAN UNDERSTAND OR ACCEPT THE RAMIFICATIONS, LET ALONE HAVE THE UNDERSTANDING TO KNOW THAT A CHANGE IN COURSE IS REQUIRED OR WHAT THAT COURSE COULD OR SHOULD BE!

Btw, does the small 2% change here ring any bells for anyone?
How about the phrase " self re-enforcing adverse Climate Change loops"?  

In case you haven't noticed, the rest of the world continues to slow down and the negative data is accelerating. The big powerhouses of the world, the eurozone including Germany, Japan, and China are leading this trend and there is no reason to believe that the U.S. will not follow.

I've been writing about this theme frequently lately because, while we are seeing some positive numbers here in the U.S., we are also seeing signs of weakness starting to show up, and since we live in a world of international trade, the world's woes will hit us.

The first thing to note about this phenomenon is that the central banks of the world, including the Fed, have been doing all they can to support their economies with plentiful money. According to a recent Bloomberg article, "Central banks across five continents are undertaking the broadest reduction in borrowing costs since 2009 to avert a global economic slump stemming from Europe’s sovereign-debt turmoil."

        Monetary easing will push the average worldwide central bank interest rate, weighted for gross domestic product, to 1.79 percent by next June from 2.16 percent in September, the largest drop in two years, according to data and projections from JPMorgan, which tracks 31 central banks. The number of those banks loosening credit is the most since the third quarter of 2009, when 15 institutions cut rates, the data show. ...

        The People’s Bank of China has raised its main interest rate three times this year to fight inflation. India’s central bank lifted rates on Oct. 25 by a quarter of a percentage point, while signaling it was nearing the end of its record cycle of increases as the economy cooled.

This is nothing new. Since the Crash of 2008, most central banks have been pumping fiat money into their economies.

The multiple EU sovereign insolvencies—you don't need to default to be insolvent—are hitting eurozone credit hard, which is a trigger for deflation as money supply declines. Lenders are stuck with bad sovereign loans and there isn't enough money to bail them all out, much less the PIIGS.

The thing to remember about the eurozone is that it's not just sovereign insolvencies that is their problem. They became insolvent, yes because governments spent too much, but also because their economies are in the tank mainly for many of the same reasons the U.S. economy declined (money inflation boom, high debt/spending, housing market collapse triggering depression, high taxes and regulation, and various bailouts to prevent recovery). Until they fix the underlying causes, their banks will collapse and countries will default.

China's economy relies on the West for its exports, and as a result:

    Manufacturing production falls at fastest rate in 3 months; the lowest service sector growth since August;
    Overall input costs fall for the first month since July 2010;
    Service sector business optimism second-lowest in series history.

China's frequent monetary stimulus, along with government real estate policies, keeps feeding their real estate boom-bust cycles.

Once you look at the data, below, you will see where we and the world are headed.

While these economies are shrinking, demand for commodities, capital goods, and manufactured goods all decline. This is impacting commodity prices; they have been falling since this summer (mainly a supply-demand factor, not just a money deflation issue). Each country/zone will have a different reaction to all this. Most will continue to inflate ("print" money).

Money printing will have little impact on declining prices for the time being. Unless they panic. If they panic, that is, massively pump money, they will suffer from price inflation. China will have more booms and the eurozone will also stagnate as well. Japan will continue to go "Japanese", and depending on what the Fed does, it is likely we'll go Japanese as well.

N.B. The word "depression" frightens a lot of people. It should. But, we are in one now. Our leaders just invented the word "recession" to take our minds off what's really happening. Murray Rothbard in his book, America's Great Depression noted that when the economy crashed again in 1937, FDR and his advisers didn't want to use the "D" word so they came up with "recession." Until that time there were no "recessions." Now a "recession" is just a mini-depression. Since we, in my opinion, have not yet recovered from the Crash of 2008, we are in a depression. Just ask the 25 million Americans who either don't have a job, can't find one, stopped looking, or are working part-time because they can't find full-time work. Just ask the 24% of home owners whose homes are financially underwater.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/312879-the-worldwide-depression-recession-of-201...
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Grey wrote on Dec 11^th, 2011 at 7:36pm:



Please keep posting this valuable information PN. Although I could probably find it on the internet myself, it is much easier to come to the one thread where you know the updates are posted regularly. We also have a timeline. I wish I had have kept the thread from Yahoo message boards.

I bet you had trouble accepting flush toilets too qikvtec.