Will popular democracy bring down the New World Order?

A fair question. For Western peoples are growing increasingly reluctant to accept the sacrifices that the elites are imposing upon them to preserve that New World Order.

Political support for TARP, to rescue the financial system after the Lehman Brothers collapse, is being held against any Republican candidate who backed it. Germans and Northern Europeans are balking at any more bailouts of Club Med deadbeats.

Eighty-one members of David Cameron's party voted against him to demand a referendum on whether Britain should leave the European Union altogether, the worst Tory revolt ever against the EU.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou imperiled the grand bargain to save the eurozone by announcing a popular vote on whether to accept the austerity imposed on Greece, or default, and let the bank dominoes begin to fall. The threat faded only when Papandreou cancelled the referendum.

But the real peril is Italy, No. 3 economy in the eurozone, with a national debt at 120 percent of gross domestic product.

After the plan to save the eurozone was announced, interest rates on new Italian debt surged above 6 percent, with 6.5 regarded as unsustainable.

When Papandreou announced his referendum, the cost of Italian debt surged again. Should buyers of Italy's debt go on strike, fearing a Rome default or write-down, that is the end of the eurozone and potentially the end of the EU.

But an even larger question hangs over Rome.

Will Italy survive as one nation and one people?

For the austerity demanded of Italy to deal with its debt crisis is adding kindling to secessionist fires in the north, where the Lega Nord of Umberto Bossi, third largest party in Italy, seeks to lead Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto, with the cities of Turin, Milan and Venice, out of Italy into a new nation - Padania.

According to Italy's National Office of Statistics, in 2009 the fertility rate of Italian women was 1.41 children per woman. This is only two-thirds of what is needed simply to replace Italy's existing population.

Italy's fertility rate has been below replacement levels for 35 years. By mid-century, Italy will be a nation with a birth rate that will have been below, at times far below, zero population growth for 75 years.

Italy's birth rate in 1950 was almost twice its death rate. But the death rate equaled the birth rate in 1985, exceeds it today and will be approaching twice the birth rate by 2050.

Italy is not only aging, with the median age of its population going from 43 today to 50 at midcentury, Italy is dying. If this does not change, what the world knows as Italy will not exist at the end of this century.

Like other European nations, Italy faces an existential crisis.

Her national debt is twice what the EU says is tolerable. She must undergo years of painful austerity to pay back what she has borrowed and spent. Yet a shrinking population of working age young and an expanding pool of seniors and aged to care for will make that increasingly difficult, and default on her debts increasing attractive, as it is today to the Greeks.



Link -
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.11/roma.html
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I may not agree with everything the author says, but the article does highlight quite starkly, some of the issues that I have already  raised!

THE Senate today voted to pass the carbon tax by 36 votes to 32.

There was applause from supporters in the public gallery as the nine Greens voted with Labor to pass the package of 18 bills.

The Coalition voted against as did Independent Senator Nick Xenophon and DLP senator John Madigan.

Coalition MPs called out "shame".

The House of Representatives voted for the package two weeks ago.

It means the tax of $23 a tonne on the nation's 500 biggest polluters will begin on July 1.

Households will receive $5 billion a year in tax cuts and welfare and business will get $3 billion a year in assistance.

With Climate Change Minister Greg Combet watching from the public gallery, Finance Minister Penny Wong said it was a historic moment.

"It has been a long path to this day," she said.

Drawing inspiration from US President Barack Obama, Senator Wong said: "Yes, we will act."

"Today marks the beginning of the clean energy future," said Senator Wong, who was Climate Change Minister in the Rudd Government when Parliament rejected his emissions trading scheme.

Greens leader Bob Brown said he was delighted with the vote and future generations would thank Parliament for making the move to fight pollution.

“The Australian Greens are celebrating the historic Senate vote for world-leading legislation to tackle the global nemesis of climate change,” he said.

“People 50 years, or 500 years, from now will thank us for doing this. This is a vote for Australian householders, economic planners and ecologically sound business, as well as the Great Barrier Reef, Ningaloo, the Murray Darling Basin and 700,000 property owners on our coastal margins.”

But the bitter political debate continued right until the final vote today, with the Coalition renewing its vow to rescind the carbon tax if it won power.

Opposition Senate leader Eric Abetz said the carbon tax was a "betrayal" by the Government of its election pledge not to have a carbon tax.

Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce said the carbon tax would hurt families but not change the temperature of the globe.

“It’s an attack on every household via the powerpoint in their home,” he said.

Opposition leader Tony Abbott said Ms Gillard had no mandate to introuduce the tax.

“Today Julia Gillard and the Labor Party have confirmed in law their betrayal of the Australian people. The carbon tax is a toxic tax based on a lie from a Prime Minister who promised six days before the last election 'there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead',” he said.

“This new tax is a blow to the future of Australian manufacturing and a new burden for families struggling under cost of living increases.  The tax will increase but the so-called compensation won’t."

Abbott's comments came as he left the country for a week-long trip to England.

Treasurer Wayne Swan accused Mr Abbott of scurrying off despite his criticism of the tax.

Independent Senator Nick Xenophon said he did not believe Prime Minister Julia Gillard lied but she had misled the public.

Ms Gillard returned to Australia today after visiting troops in Afghanistan and attending the G20 in France.

Government spirits were lifted by the latest Newspoll showing Labor's primary vote rose 3 points to a six month high of 32 per cent, but the Coalition still holds a much stronger core vote of 44 per cent.

In two-party preferred terms, the Coalition has an election-winning lead of 53-47 per cent but its six-point lead is down from a massive 18 point margin a few months ago.

Link -
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/senate-votes-to-pass-carbon-tax-by-36...
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So, in Thunderbird terminology,  it seems the Carbon Tax is a GO!

To be fair, THIS A TAX, it is meant to raise Revenue for the government of Australia, to offset rising costs.

At the same time, it can be sold as "doing something" about Climate Change, which it will not. At least, not by itself, not by ourselves and not without the major world players getting down & getting "undirty", WHICH IS DESPERATELY NEEDED, BUT UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN, at least not soon enough!

Finally, whichever way it is viewed and under whatever name changes may take place, the Liberals will also need the taxes raised here, so in one way, shape or form, it is likely that the Carbon tax will continue.

perceptions_now wrote on Oct 11^th, 2011 at 8:11pm:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NkGojA_yiQw

Phunnie... may need to copy and past to your web browser.

It's a protest song done to the old pop song Amadeus... and called F U Papandreou.

I wonder, this time, is there any actual/real reason, for a change of such magnitude?

http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

Italy’s government presented lawmakers with the budget measures pledged to European Union allies, paving the way for parliamentary votes this week that will lead to Prime MinisterSilvio Berlusconi’s resignation.

Italy’s bond yields surged past the 7 percent threshold that prompted Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts after Berlusconi’s majority unraveled yesterday and LCH Clearnet SA said it would demand additional collateral on Italian debt. Months of bickering within Berlusconi’s Cabinet over the budget measures ended up fueling the collapse of the government and the selloff of the country’s debt.

“Italy is now in a dance of death,” Fredrik Erixon, head of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, said in a telephone interview. “What we need is a strong reaction from other euro zone leaders to calm markets. But we don’t have it.”

Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-09/italy-gives-lawmakers-budget-measures-t...
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I would suggest higher rates are on the way for Italy, following the Greek example and with Italy we are now talking about an Economy of SIZE, so the dilemma becomes even greater.

They can not afford Italy to go the way of Greece, but neither can they afford to bail it out!

• Report warns the UK could slip into negative growth over next six months
• PM says the Treasury is planning for all eventualities
• France and Spain could be next to face contagion as Italy borrows another £2bn in order to stave off bankruptcy
• UK growth expected to slow to 0.7% by end of this year and 0.6% in 2012
• In the eurozone, growth is expected to be 0.5% next year

Britain was preparing for economic 'Armageddon' last night as the European Union warned the UK is at serious risk of a double-dip recession.

The toll of the turmoil in Europe to our economy was laid bare in a report which predicted the UK could slip into negative growth over the next six months – and economic forecasts were slashed for the whole of Europe.

David Cameron said the Treasury was planning for 'all eventualities' and warned eurozone leaders they have to act now or face a 'moment of truth' that will leave the world in a worse position than the 2008 credit crunch.

With fears that the euro could collapse altogether, Business Secretary Vince Cable said that such an outcome would unleash an 'Armageddon scenario' that would drag British banks down as well.

With Italy forced to borrow £2billion more yesterday to stave off bankruptcy, fears were growing last night that France and Spain will be the next to face contagion from the debt crisis as the interest they have to pay on their debts crept inexorably upwards.

The burgeoning crisis spread yesterday when the EU admitted that the debt disaster is now obliterating the prospects of healthy economic growth in Europe.

Officials in Brussels painted a grim picture of the UK's economic prospects for the next two years, warning 'contraction in GDP in at least one of the next few quarters cannot be ruled out' – code for a double dip recession.

The report forecast that British economic output would grow by just 0.7 per cent in 2011, while inflation and unemployment rise.

And in a worrying sign that the economy could stagnate well into next year, growth will slow even further in 2012, to 0.6 per cent.

The prognosis for the eurozone is even bleaker, the report said, warning that economic recovery in the single currency has 'come to a standstill' – with growth projected to be just 0.5 per cent next year, compared to a previous forecast of 1.8 per cent.

The Commission's economics supremo Olli Rehn said: 'Growth has stalled in Europe, and there is a risk of a new recession.'

Asset management firm Schroders also predicted a 'serious' eurozone recession in 2012, and this could result in a recession in EU countries such as Britain which are outside the single currency.

The Italian government was forced to borrow another £2billion on the markets at an interest rate of 7 per cent – the threshold which has triggered financial rescue packages for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

David Cameron warned that Italy could drag the rest of Europe down. In a speech to business leaders in London, he said: 'Its current state is a clear and present danger to the eurozone and the moment of truth is approaching.

'If the leaders of the eurozone want to save their currency then they – together with the institutions of the eurozone – must act now. The longer the delay, the greater the danger.'

Vince Cable, asked what would happen if the euro collapsed, said: 'Well, certainly it affects our trade; and potentially – in what [is called] an “Armageddon scenario” – it affects the banking system.'

The Prime Minister's remarks that the 'institutions of the eurozone' must act was a reference to the European Central Bank (ECB), which the British Government has been calling on to act as lender of last resort for the single currency.

THE VIEW FROM PARIS
The overwhelming emotion in France over the euro crisis is fear. Many believe the country could be the next victim and is facing financial catastrophe.

After unveiling a £50billion austerity programme earlier this year, the government in Paris warned that bankruptcy could be a matter of months away.

Overall public debt stands at more than £1.5trillion.

But a spokesman for the Socialist Party, which is expected to triumph at next year’s presidential elections, said the cuts response amounted to an attack on ‘the French social model, public services and social security’.

If the eurozone situation deteriorates, as seems inevitable, then France faces the prospect of widespread social unrest.

AND THEY SEE IT IN BERLIN

It may be one of the most enthusiastic European countries, but the single currency crisis is making Germany nostalgic for the days of the deutschmark.

Sixty per cent of Germans want their old currency back and believe the euro will be consigned to history.

The political and banking elite, however, are determined to hang on to the single currency, despite the high costs.

They believe its failure would be a failure of the entire European project.

And in the corridors of power in Berlin they fear the alternative is a Weimar-style economic collapse – hyper-inflation, mass unemployment, a search for new scapegoats, the blossoming of ultra-nationalism – like that which ushered in the Nazis in the 1930s.

Link -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059756/Britain-prepares-economic-Armage...

It’s official: The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) plan announced at the EU summit on October 27th is essentially dead prior to arrival.

As a consequence, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy appear to be betraying signs of throwing in the towel on the Euro project as it exists today. They appear to be actively contemplating ways to engineer an orderly breakup of the Euro.

As financial market participants gets wind of their intentions - albeit tentative - expect financial markets to accelerate the unfolding of events. The entire Euro edifice could collapse before the New Year.

EFSF Chief: The Insurance Plan Is Dead Prior To Arrival

When the Chief of the EFSF is pessimistic about the capacity of the EFSF to be leveraged to an extent that is adequate to the task at hand, then you might as well kiss the whole thing goodbye.

Since there are only about 250 billion euros available for the EFSF first-loss insurance scheme, that means that, even assuming 30% were sufficient, the mechanism would only be adequate to cover about 800 billion euros worth of debt issuance by Italy and Spain -- and any other euro area country that needed funding.

It has been estimated that roughly two trillion euros of funding are needed to simply merely meet projected roll-over and fresh financing needs through mid 2013. Therefore, the 800 billion projection is totally insufficient to the task at hand.

Conclusion
Merkel and Sarkozy will soon learn that an orderly break-up of the Euro is not possible. Even the slightest hint that a breakup is being contemplated will cause a global financial disturbance that is so great that any perceived benefits of a break-up will be completely overwhelmed by the costs that will be imposed by the market.

By the same token, Merkel and the Germans are unwilling to do what it takes to save the Euro.

Thus, a situation is fast approaching where a crisis is becoming unavoidable. European leaders cannot break up the Euro without incurring unacceptable costs. At the same time, the costs of saving the euro seem prohibitive. The result of this configuration of choices will likely be paralysis that will lead to outcomes that will be dictated by panicked financial markets rather than carefully planned policies.

Markets will move must faster than the Eurocracy can agree on anything of substance. As detailed here, various markets that have served as leading indicators in the past appear to be getting ahead of the curve already.

In the absence of aggressive intervention by the ECB, I believe that Europe could find itself in the midst of a full-fledged crisis before New Year. This accelerated timing could be averted through a series of aggressive and shrewd actions by European leaders and the ECB. However, investors should prepare for this potential eventuality before New Year.

Under such circumstances I would expect the S&P 500 index (SPX) to ultimately fall to the area between 950 and 1,020 within a matter of just a few months. I expect the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) to fall to the area around 1,850-2,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) should ultimately decline to an area between the 9,000 and 10,000 level.

This implies declines for the SPY, DIA and QQQ of between 20%-30% from current levels.

Given the magnitude of the risks faced on a six-month time horizon, in my view, it makes little sense for investors to purchase or hold even very attractive equities such as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) or Pepsi (PEP). Investors will probably be best served by raising cash and letting the current highly dangerous situation play itself out. I believe that investors that raise cash now and wait for the storm to pass will likely be highly rewarded for their patience and discipline.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/307208-prepare-for-europe-collapse-before-new-ye...
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I don't know about timing, but the trend seems unavoidable, given the Macro factors in play!

Unfortunately, the suggested rewards for their patience and discipline, after the storm has passed, could be a long time coming, given those same Macro.