Australian Politics Forum - For the Record

Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register

Forum rules, Recent posts (with text), RSS, Search options, Browse all uploaded images
Home, Articles, Green Tax Shift, Evolution,

Australian Politics Forum › Member Run Boards › Finance and Economics › For the Record

(Moderator: perceptions_now)

‹ Previous Topic | Next Topic ›

Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 ... 117

For the Record (Read 220942 times)

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #255 - Jan 13^th, 2011 at 2:45pm

The Future of Food Riots

If all the food in the world were shared out evenly, there would be enough to go around. That has been true for centuries now: if food was scarce, the problem was that it wasn't in the right place, but there was no global shortage. However, that will not be true much longer.

The food riots began in Algeria more than a week ago, and they are going to spread. During the last global food shortage, in 2008, there was serious rioting in Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt. We may expect to see that again this time, only bigger and more widespread.

Most people in these countries live in a cash economy, and a large proportion live in cities. They buy their food, they don't grow it. That makes them very vulnerable, because they have to eat almost as much as people in rich countries do, but their incomes are much lower.

The poor, urban multitudes in these countries (including China and India) spend up to half of their entire income on food, compared to only about ten percent in the rich countries. When food prices soar, these people quickly find that they simply lack the money to go on feeding themselves and their children properly - and food prices now are at an all-time high.

"We are entering a danger territory," said Abdolreza Abbassian, chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organisation, on 5 January. The price of a basket of cereals, oils, dairy, meat and sugar that reflects global consumption patterns has risen steadily for six months, and has just broken through the previous record, set during the last food panic in June, 2008.

"There is still room for prices to go up much higher," Abbassian added, "if for example the dry conditions in Argentina become a drought, and if we start having problems with winter kill in the northern hemisphere for the wheat crops." After the loss of at least a third of the Russian and Ukrainina grain crop in last summer's heat wave and the devastating floods in Australia and Pakistan, there's no margin for error left .

It was Russia and India banning grain exports in order to keep domestic prices down that set the food prices on the international market soaring. Most countries cannot insulate themselves from this global price rise, because they depend on imports for a lot of domestic consumption. But that means that a lot of their population cannot buy enough food for their families, so they go hungry. Then they get angry, and the riots start.

Is this food emergency a result of global warming? Maybe, but all these droughts, heat waves and floods could also just be a run of really bad luck. What is nearly certain is that the warming will continue, and that in the future there will be many more weather disasters due to climate change. Food production is going to take a big hit.

Global food prices are already spiking whenever there are a few local crop failures, because the supply barely meets demand even now. As the big emerging economies grow, Chinese and Indian and Indonesian citizens eat more meat, which places a great strain on grain supplies. Moreover, world population is now passing through seven billion, on its way to nine billion by 2050. We will need a lot more food than we used to.

Some short-term fixes are possible. If the US government ended the subsidies for growing maize (corn) for "bio-fuels", it would return about a quarter of US crop land to food production. If people ate a little less meat, if more African land was brought into production, if more food was eaten and less was thrown away, then maybe we could buy ourselves another fifteen or twenty years before demand really outstripped supply.

On the other hand, about a third of all the irrigated land in the world depends on pumping groundwater up from aquifers that are rapidly depleting. When the flow of irrigation water stops, the yield of that highly productive land will drop hugely. Desertification is spreading in many regions, and a large amount of good agricultural land is simply being paved over each year. We have a serious problem here.

Climate change is going to make the situation immeasurably worse. The modest warming that we have experience so far may not be the main cause of the floods, droughts and violent storms that have hurt this year's crops, but the rise in temperature will continue because we cannot find the political will to stop the greenhouse-gas emissions.

The rule of thumb is that we lose about 10 percent of world food production for every rise of one degree C in average global temperature. So the shortages will grow and the price of food will rise inexorably over the years. The riots will return again and again.

In some places the rioting will turn into revolution. In others, the rioters will become refugees and push up against the borders of countries that don't want to let them in. Or maybe we can get the warming under control before it does too much damage. Hold your breath, squeeze your eyes tight shut, and wish for a miracle.

Link -
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/01/10-1
==============
This is the affect, not the cause, it is a bi-product, of -
1) Over Population
2) Energy Decline (Oil)
3) Climate Change

Btw, for a number of reasons, I can not see the Global Population reaching the 9 billion referred to!

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #256 - Jan 13^th, 2011 at 4:53pm

Outlook 2011: Irreversible Upward Pressures

The good news is that gold is rising in value; the bad news is – well nearly everything else about the economy.

First, the three dominant mid-term trends we discussed last year.

These are:

Central bank buying
Movement away from the US dollar
China

Central Bank Buying
In 2009, for the first time in 20 years, monetary gold, or central bank and investment buying, outpaced gold buying for industrial or jewelry purposes. In 2010 China, Iran, Russia and India’s central banks were all significant buyers as they moved cash reserves to gold.

In Q3 of 2010, Russian central bank gold holdings rose 7% to 756 tonnes. In 2010, the Russian Central Bank bought two thirds of its own gold production.

In December we learned that China had imported 209.7 metric tonnes of gold in the first 10 months of the year. This was a 500% increase over the same period of 2009 and on top of their world leading domestic gold production.

By the third quarter, India’s gold imports, both commercial and private, for the year were 624 tonnes, putting them 100 tonnes above the previous year’s total of 595 tonnes. Fourth quarter purchases could put India’s annual total over 750 tonnes.

China and Russia need to acquire gold to bring their gold reserve ratio to outstanding currency closer to Western central banks. Russia needs to acquire at least 1,000 tonnes and China at least 3,000 tonnes to remain on parity with the US. Chinese officials have stated publicly that China would like to acquire at least 6,000 tonnes. Unofficially they have stated targets as high as 10,000 tonnes.

Movement Away from US Dollar
Last year we quoted a November 2009 story written by veteran journalist Robert Fisk claiming Russia and China along with France, were working on an agreement to trade oil with Arab states using currencies other than the US dollar. As expected, central bankers fervently denied these rumors. The US dollar has since 1973 been the only currency that oil could be traded in. This is the only reason the US has been able to amass nearly $14 trillion in debt. Loss of the petrodollar’s hegemony would have a devastating effect on the US as this is essentially the only reason foreign countries in the past needed to hold US dollars.

On Nov. 24, 2010, China and Russia officially ``quit the dollar`` and agreed to use each other’s currencies for bilateral trade – including oil. Official trading on Moscow’s MICEX Index began Dec. 15, 2010.
In 2009, Robert B. Zoellick, made his well-publicized comment that, the US would be "... mistaken to take for granted the dollar's place as the world's predominant reserve currency.” And that, “... looking forward, there will increasingly be other options to the dollar." In 2010 he continued hinting at a new reserve currency made up of five currencies with gold as the “reference point.” He also called for a new Bretton Woods agreement this year. Mr. Zoellick is no lunatic goldbug. He’s the president of the World Bank.

China
Last month, I was a speaker and panelist at the China Gold and Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai. I can confirm that Chinese buying, both official and public, is a major trend that is not only well in place, but may be the single most important influence on the price of gold in 2011. As I said, the Chinese see gold quite differently from the way we see it. If we are to understand gold’s price direction in 2011 and beyond I believe it is essential to understand the “mindset” the Chinese have built around gold.

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #257 - Jan 13^th, 2011 at 5:11pm

Outlook 2011: Irreversible Upward Pressures (Cont)

Three Irreversible Trends

Clearly, the three medium term trends we noted last year are still firmly in place. Now I’d like to look at three longer irreversible trends that I believe will affect the price of gold and currencies for decades. These are:

The aging population
Outsourcing
Peak oil

The Aging Population
The aging population is a combination of a population that is living longer and the “pig in the python” effect of a huge tidal wave of “baby boomers” born between 1946 and 1963 who are just starting to enter retirement age. As people age, they spend less and downsize. GDP and tax revenues are reduced and a much smaller workforce follows the baby boomers so this is a triple whammy. This problem is universal. In China, it is further exacerbated by their one child per couple policy. Governments will have no choice but to create more currency and further debase it.

Outsourcing
Outsourcing has almost entirely destroyed the manufacturing sectors of many first world countries like the US and Canada and much of Europe. The Chinese worker who built your iPhone made $287 a month; this was after a well-publicized raise. The West simply can no longer compete with these labor costs. The United States was the world’s largest manufacturer after WWII and has driven the world’s economy ever since. However, the US consumer can no longer buy things as they lose their jobs. As factories move off shore the high unemployment becomes systemic. Without jobs, the GDP and the tax revenues of the US fall. The mountain of federal, state and municipal debt will become even harder to service and the government will be forced to go even deeper in debt and to further debase its currency.

Peak Oil
Peak oil is the point at which the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This has already happened in the US, Alaska and the North Sea. In the next few years Mexico will become an importer of oil and the US will lose its third largest supplier. Our fragile, highly indebted economy relies on this land based cheap oil to continue and it cannot withstand the shock of transitioning to more expensive alternatives. In September of 2010 a German military think tank reported that the German government is taking the threat of peak oil seriously and preparing accordingly. Numerous studies around the world have concluded that we are very close to peak oil production, which will be accelerated due to gulf drilling bans.

This will lead to higher price inflation for most goods. This will be another blow to the fragile US economy, which currently pays less for oil and gas than any of the first world countries. When added to the effects of the waning strength of the petrodollar the results will be devastating.

May I remind you that if China, which currently has one tenth the number of cars per capita as Americans, was to reach par with the US, we would need, by one estimate, seven more Saudi Arabia’s to meet their needs.

These three mega trends will continue to lower the GDP, lower the tax revenue, create higher trade deficits, create higher unemployment, resulting in the need for further currency creation. This will cause inflation to rise as currencies depreciate in value and create higher universal debt. All of this means the gold price will continue to rise.

Link -
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/1/Pages/Outlook-2011-Irreversible-Upwa...
================================

The author makes many logical & powerfull arguments, for the why of where the future trends are heading!

However, in respect of the West not being able to compete, it should be born in mind that the competitive forces will realign significantly, as Energy costs begin to rise dramatically, as will Transport costs!

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #258 - Jan 15^th, 2011 at 11:02am

Economists play safe with gloomy forecasts

The world must create a joint network to react to potential risks. This is the conclusion drawn by experts of the World Economic Forum. They have prepared a presentation for the economic forum in Davos which opens on the 26th of January. The key conclusion of their research report, titled Global Risks 2011, is that it is time to recognize the helplessness of world economics in the face of future crises and pursue preemptive tactics.

Having analyzed the consequences of the world financial crisis, experts have come to the conclusion that the global economy has exhausted all possible ways of fighting it. At the same time, the frequency and depth of problems threatening global stability have grown. The point is that systems built in the 20th century cannot cope with 21st century challenges,

shifting risks to others.

Analyzing these conclusions, many experts point out a number of drawbacks. Criticizing the existing model, researchers do not make any specific suggestions, only mentioning the need for innovations. Meanwhile, all leading world economists say that globalization and cash flows have been expanding lately.

However, until now, everyone tried to mitigate the consequences of the crisis, rather than fight its cause.

Link -
http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/01/13/39622940.html
======================
It seems, even the Russians now understand how Economics works?

An observation -

In saying, "rather than fight its cause", the author is perhaps suggesting that the Economic status quo can somehow win a fight, to retain the way that Economics & Politics has run the world, in recent times?

I say categorically, that will not happen, as the laws of Nature & the realities of Humanity, mean that Limitless Growth, is impossible!

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #259 - Jan 15^th, 2011 at 11:40am

Japan Exporting Deflation Reveals Meaning of Bernanke Nightmare

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Deflation is so entrenched in Japan that companies are exporting it.

Prices in Japan as measured by the gross domestic product deflator have declined almost without interruption since 1994. That has muted the effect of falling wages and provides a cautionary tale for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who has been lecturing on deflation’s perils as a central banker since 2002.

“Retailers like Uniqlo were able to ride the wave of deflation and grow,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, a senior economist at Itochu Corp. in Tokyo. “To win these pricing wars at home, companies had to keep cutting workers’ pay, and that’s spiraled down with prices falling and then falling some more, with deflation never ending.”

“Everyone knew deflation was bad for jobs and bad for the economy, but gradually, households and companies just got used to it,” said Martin Schulz, a former Bank of Japan researcher and now senior economist in Tokyo at Fujitsu Research Institute. “The risk is that it takes hold in the U.S. as well.”

‘Unavoidable Endgame’

Deflation will steadily sap nominal growth, depriving the government of revenue, until one day Japan will no longer be able to finance its borrowing, Jerram said. The country will either default on a debt of about twice the size of the economy or debase its currency to reduce the real value of liabilities.

“That’s the unavoidable endgame,” said Jerram, who has analyzed the Japanese economy since 1987. “As long as it’s in the future, everybody can pretend it’s someone else’s problem.”

U.S. inflation is lower than policy makers’ long-term forecast. The Fed’s preferred price gauge, which strips out food and energy, rose at a record-low 0.5 percent annual pace, the Dec. 22 Commerce Department report showed.

Bernanke Advice

During a visit shortly afterward to Tokyo, he urged his Japanese counterparts to work with the Finance Ministry to buy more government bonds to keep interest rates low and cut taxes to spur consumer spending.

“At stake is not only the economic health of your country but also, to a significant degree, the prosperity of the rest of the world,” he said.

Retirees on Savings

For Japan, with the fastest-aging population in the developed world, a sudden rebound in prices would hurt pensioners and retirees living off savings.

With almost one fourth of the population over 65 years old, Japan chose to stay in deflation, said Feldman. That turned cash into an investment, as money left in bank deposits gained in purchasing power the longer it stayed there. Today, Japanese households keep 56 percent of their financial assets in cash, compared with 14 percent in the U.S.

“The factors that produced and permitted deflationary policy seem likely to persist,” Feldman said in a report.

Link -
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBVTk6VzPN_M
=================
As I said in another post -

There are two issues going in opposite directions

1) Under the current system Debt, Money Supply & indeed the entire Economy, must always Grow exponentially.

2) Two of the three major Economic Drivers, Population Growth & Energy Supply, are now steadily slowing.

Population Growth

-
Can not be revitalised, it is likely to continue to slow until around 2030-2040, when it will then start to go into reverse, which it will continue to do, probably until around the end of this century. There are obvious issues involving a reversal of Demand for most Products & Services.

Energy Supply

Is unlikely to be re-juvenated and as Fossil Fuels are now starting to decline in Production, there will be dramatic effects on the disposal income of individuals & countries, plus a decline in Productivity and the Supply of many Products & Services.
In particular, the lack of alternative Liquid Fuels for transport will secerely inhibit any transition away from the current Fossil fuels.

It would seem that 2 absolutes are colliding, but in reality there is only one absolute and the current Money/Economic/Political systems will either adapt or crash!

There are also a few other
MINOR PROBLEMS
-

Climate Change!

The Baby Boomer Aging Bust

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #260 - Jan 16^th, 2011 at 11:37am

The Mighty US$

Last Report dated 01/01/2011

US$ Index (basket of Currencies): @ 79.06 (Last Report - 78.96) (2010/06/04 - 87.85)
http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/usdollar/usdollarindex24hour.php

Euro - US$: @ 1.3388 (Last Report - 1.3384) (2010/06/04 - 120.44)
AUD$ - US$: @ 0.9888 (Last Report - 1.0233) (2010/06/04 - 83.17)
AUD$ - GBP: @ 0.6231 (Last Report - 0.6573) (2010/06/04 - 57.04)
AUD$ - EURO: @ 0.7385 (Last Report - 0.7619) (2010/06/04 - 69.06)
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/fxc.html

Gold - @ US$1,360.50 (Last Report - US$1,421.40) (2010/06/04 - $1,207.80)
Oil - @ US$91.54 (Last Report - US$91.38) (2010/06/04 - $72.59)

DOW @ 11,787 - (Up 55 @ Friday close) (Last Report - 11,577) (2010/06/04 - 11,444)
ALL ORDS @ 4,909 (Up 7 @ Wednesday close) (Last Report - 4,847) (2010/06/04 - 4472)
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE @ 2,791 (Up N/a @ Friday close) (Last Report - N/a) (2010/06/04 - 2,553)
http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0

Last 5 years DOW -
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart3:symbol=

THERE was movement at the FED, for the word had passed around, That the US$ was an old Regret and its value had long since passed away
==================
The VOLATILITY continues!

After approaching 89 in June and going under 76 in November, the US$ index has finished 2010 at 78.96, then rose to 81, before finishing Friday at 79.06.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/M

One of the big winners last year was the OZ$, which slid to $0.83 against the US$ in June and has since recovered dramatically to close 2010 at $1.0233. The OZ$ has since declined to finish Friday at $0.988 on the back of severe flooding on the Eastern seaboard, which may well cost $30-$40 Billion +, in lost Agricultural & Mining revenue, plus Repair & other costs.

Gold dipped a little early in the year to around $1,050 in February, but finished the year strongly at $1,421.40. It has since slipped to $1,360.50, as at Friday. The recent decline in Glod is interesting, given the relative lack of movement in the US$.

Having slipped below $70 mid year, Crude Oil recovered to finish 2010 at $91.38, it is now $91.54.

Share markets also bounced back, after reaching mid year lows, as the DOW went from just under 9800 in July, to finish 2010 at 11,577 and it has continued its rise to now be at 11,787.

The Australian market rose from just under 4,300 in July to finish 2010 at 4,847 and is now at 4,909.

The Shanghai Composite continues to be the Roller Coaster Ride! However, it does seem to be on the decline since mid November, so the actions taken by the Chinese government seem to be hitting their markets.

Given the prevailing Macro Factors at play in the Global Economy, I am reminded of Alan Greenspan’s statement about the markets & “irrational exuberance”.

The likelihood of triple digit Oil, continues to loom larger and with January 1st, 2011 came the first of the “official Boomer retirements” and also the likelihood of a further Economic slowdown looms larger!

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #261 - Jan 16^th, 2011 at 3:52pm

Hotter, colder, wetter: it's a new world of extremes

IN A land of droughts and flooding rains, it's often hard to remember when you're being scorched by one or submerged by the other. But lately Australia seems to be oscillating between increasingly regular and ruinous extreme weather events - and sometimes suffering the opposite ends of the extremes at the same time.

So one side of the continent is inundated by the worst floods in memory, while its south-west corner is hit by bushfires. Is this the future? Are these a sign of things to come with climate change?

Dr David Jones, climate analyst with the Bureau of Meteorology agrees. ''The last year (of extreme weather events across the world) certainly has been really extreme, but in the Australian context the really major story is La Nina,'' he says. ''It's one of the strongest in recorded history.''

The last comparable La Nina, from 1973 to 1975, brought similar calamity, he notes, including the record Brisbane floods and cyclone Tracy of 1975. La Ninas in 1955 and 1917 also brought major flooding.

''The warming we've seen over the last 30 or 40 years, of about half a degree, has to have an effect on changing the background climate on which natural variabilities such as La Ninas and El Ninos operate,'' says Monash University meteorologist Professor Neville Nicholls. Unfortunately, no one has a computer big and fast enough, nor enough money to run the sort of models that could confirm the link or predict any effect into the future, he says.

Professor Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute, says there's ''definitely'' a growing risk that events of this type will become more frequent as the climate warms. ''One-in-100-year events would become a one-in-20 or one-in-30-year event as the climate shifts … we say with some confidence they are becoming more frequent and they will become more frequent in future.''

Certainly, the world appears to have increasingly suffered wild and damaging swings in its weather in recent years, from the record high temperatures and bushfire havoc of Black Saturday in February 2009 to monsoonal flooding in January 2011, from scorching Russian summer to recently snowbound Europe and North America.

Global reinsurance giant Munich Re recently plotted 950 natural catastrophes over 2010. It found more than 90 per cent were weather-related - with a cost of more than $US130 billion and a huge loss of life. It estimated the Russian heatwave and associated fires and air pollution in July killed at least 56,000 people and Pakistan's worst-ever floods killed 1769.

Worldwide, 2010 was the wettest on record but, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, also the hottest since instrumental climate records began in 1850. Eighteen nations experienced their hottest-ever temperatures. It was the coolest year in Australia since 2001 but still above the long-term average.

Professor Nicholls says that while it is not possible to accurately predict global warming-induced changes to natural variables like La Nina, one prediction can be made with confidence - heatwaves.

''The last 10 years has been the decade of unprecedented heatwaves around the world,'' he says. ''A whole string of heatwaves much more dramatic than we've seen before and they've been killer heatwaves.''

The last three days of January 2009, in the week before Black Saturday (at 46.4 degrees, itself the hottest February day in Melbourne by more than three degrees) there were 374 extra deaths in Victoria due to the heatwave, he says.

Dr Tolhurst says we can also expect more fires. In Victoria, about 27 per cent of bushfires in the past 30 years have been started by lightning. Because of inaccessibility and multiple strikes causing separate fires to converge, the area burnt is about 70 per cent of the total. But lightning-sparked fires have been increasing. In 2003 and 2007 they accounted for about 40 per cent of all bushfires.

University of Southern Queensland climatologist Professor Roger Stone, director of the Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments and chairman of a United Nations global team investigating the impacts of climate change and extreme weather on agriculture, says the see-saw pattern of changes between La Ninas and El Ninos would have a significant future impact on Australia's economy.

''These events can often reduce GDP growth by half of 1 per cent because they have a huge impact on our mining industry, agriculture, tourism, insurance companies … someone has to pay for this at the end of the day.''

Professor David Karoly, from Melbourne University's school of earth sciences, agrees: ''In terms of planning for these events, we need to develop adaptation measures that cope with even greater variability in rainfall in Australia. So hotter and drier conditions in some years and very wet conditions in other years,'' he says. ''We need to be able to cope with Australia becoming a land of more droughts and worse flooding rains.''

Link -
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/hotter-colder-wetter-its-a-new-worl...
========================
Hotter & either Wetter or Dryer!

We either start to mitigate the risks now or future events will become overwhelming!

And, that also applies to Energy & Over-Population!

« Last Edit: Jan 16^th, 2011 at 4:01pm by perceptions_now »

IP Logged

perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: For the Record Reply #262 - Jan 18^th, 2011 at 8:53pm You gotta love it! Courtesy of StingingNettle @ Taoeconomics.
Back to top	IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #263 - Jan 19^th, 2011 at 1:18pm

Rookie Rand Paul tackles budget head-on

1) Like other Republicans, Paul is pushing a constitutional amendment to force Congress to balance its books, calling for a two-thirds-majority vote to increase taxes.

2) And he plans to float bills that would kill certain federal regulations.

3) Breaking from most lawmakers, he also wants to force a debate over instituting a limit of two terms for senators.

4) And he’ll propose establishing a waiting period before lawmakers cast major votes and forcing them to read legislation.

5) “The difference between me and others is that I haven’t been beaten down by the process for 30 years,” Paul said. “I don’t understand why I can’t do something, why I can’t change anything. I’m incredibly optimistic.”

Link -
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47720.html
================

1) Pure Politics! Can anyone see going from the current massive deficits (Overt & Co-vert), to a balanced set of books, given the likely long term Macro Economic factors, anytime this century?

2) Interesting, given that a lack of certain regulations was involved in this GFC getting under way?

3) Interesting, as a Political Ploy, given the chance of success would be "slim to none", but its sure to get him some followers.

4) Huh?

5) The difference is, he has only just been elected and hasn't had time to be beaten into shape by the system, perhaps he doesn't yet understand that TPTB will tell him what he can & can't do (that's being generous), that he won't change a damn thing thing and that he is being incredible over-optimistic and that's being generous!

For those on the Right or Left of Politics OR those into Supply-side or Demand-side Economics, let me assure you, they all have variable front entrances, but the backroom exits are all the same!

Finally for anyone who thinks this &/or other similar sounding rhetoric may change likely outcomes, I invite comment on how any of this could change the course of the following 3 major factors, which dominate Global Economics -
1) Demographics - Aging & Slowing Growth rate.
2) Peak Everything, including Energy, Food Other Essentials.
3) Climate Change

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #264 - Jan 19^th, 2011 at 2:41pm

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/20-shocking-new-economic-records-tha...

==============

And that's only the known (overt) debt, it does not include unfunded liabilities for Pensions & Health ($50 Trillion +), not covert Debt, including the FED (who knows)!
Chart courtesy of StingingNettle @ taoeconomics.

Spiralling US Debt also comes at a time when the US GDP is stalling!

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #265 - Jan 19^th, 2011 at 5:30pm

World food shortage in 10 years

A GLOBAL population explosion combined with the steady effects of climate change are forecast to create a worldwide food shortage in the next 10 years, but the news isn't all bad for some countries.

The United States, China, Ethiopia and parts of northern Europe are among the select few expected to be able to grow more crops as a result of changes in temperature and rainfall, according to a study.

However, those gains will not be enough to stave off an increase in world starvation and price spikes for food as a result of a shortfall in three of the four main cereal crops, said the report by the Universal Ecological Fund, a non-profit group.

The forecast is based on UN figures about climate change released in 2007, and projects the impact of temperature changes that will leave the planet at least 2.4 degrees Celsius warmer by 2020.

While there are more recent analyses that make slight allowances for how the Earth may adjust itself, researchers used the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, combined with ``the business-as-usual path the world is currently following,'' said lead author Liliana Hisas.

The analysis describes a scenario in which a population boom packs the world with an additional 890 million people by 2020, for a total of 7.8 billion.

Changes in agriculture wrought by swings in rain and temperature then forge across-the-board deficits in wheat, rice and maize, meaning there will not be enough to feed all those extra mouths.

The result will be more prevalent hunger -- one in five people going hungry, up from the current rate of one in seven -- and food price spikes of up to 20 per cent, according to the study.

"At least every other newborn in Africa; one in every four newborns in Asia; and one in every seven newborns in Latin America and the Caribbean would be sentenced to undernourishment and malnutrition,'' it said.

On the whole, Africa is expected to be the hardest hit. Due to hotter, drier temperatures, nearly two-thirds of arable land on the continent could be lost by 2025, and maize growing could die out completely in some areas, according to the study.

It said grape and olive growing in Mediterranean countries like Italy, Spain and France will suffer due to mounting dryness, as will the vineyards of California -- a $US3.9 billion ($A3.91 billion) industry.

For the United States, a major global grain producer, wheat crops are forecast to grow five to 20 per cent, while corn crops could falter slightly.

Northern Europe could see wheat yields climb between three and four per cent.

Meanwhile, the vast continent of Asia will see drastically different impacts in crop growth and rainfall.

India, the second largest world producer of rice and wheat, could see yields fall 30 per cent, the study said.

But not so for China, the world's biggest producer of wheat and rice, which is expected to boost yields up to 20 per cent.

The effects of climate change are expected to be harsher for India because of its tropical climate, as opposed to China, which lies in the temperate zone. Growers in Bangladesh and Pakistan could also expect to see declines.

"Currently, 80 per cent of global agriculture depends on rain,'' said Hisas.

Ethiopia was singled out in Africa as a country that could benefit because higher temperatures could combine with rainfall changes to boost the growth of its key crop, coffee. Ethiopia is the world's sixth largest coffee producer.

The US and China are among those expected to grow more of every main cereal group.

Soybean production is forecast to result in a five percent surplus, but the other three will see deficits across the world due to rising demand: a 14 per cent shortfall in wheat, 11 per cent for rice and nine percent for maize.

Latin America will see an overall decline in cereal yield of 2.5 to five per cent by 2020. Australia's forecast was mixed: significant yield drops in the southwest but moderate increases in the northeast.

The study urged nations to adjust crop timing and move livestock to areas where water availability is improved.

Some dietary habits may have to shift, such as consuming more potatoes, beans and lentils instead of cereal grains and animal proteins.

But the primary change it recommended was reducing harmful pollutants in the atmosphere, or greenhouse gases.

"Reducing GHG emissions is the first and most important step. Efforts so far have been numerous, but unsuccessful,'' the study said.

Link -
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/world-food-shortage-in-10-years/story-e6f...
============

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #266 - Jan 22^nd, 2011 at 8:36am

The Day After The Dollar Crashes

Courtesy of StingingNettle @ TaoEconomics

It'll never happen, at least not as depicted in this video!

Why?

Because the DOW will never reach a new all time high of 14,207, as depicted at the start of the video!

However, other than that error, the US$ and many other "Fiat currencies" do seem set for an unpleasant future.

« Last Edit: Jan 22^nd, 2011 at 11:08am by perceptions_now »

IP Logged

perceptions_now

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: male

Re: For the Record
Reply #267 - Jan 22^nd, 2011 at 11:48am

The Mighty US Banking System?

Last Report dated - 18/12/2010

Banks gone this week - 4

Banks Gone last week - 1

Banks gone since last report - 7

Banks gone this month, so far (January) - 7

Banks gone last month (December) - 8

Total Banks failed, so far, in 2011 - 7

Total Banks Failed in 2010 - 157

Total Banks Failed in 2009 - 140

FDIC Link -
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
============
The next 12 months will see many more US Banks fail!

FDIC graph of failures - per year

IP Logged

gizmo_2655 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16010 South West NSW Gender:	Re: For the Record Reply #268 - Jan 22^nd, 2011 at 1:41pm Perceptions....why are you SO fixated on the US economy????
Back to top	"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition. It's similar to a strawman fallacy" Bobbythebat IP Logged

perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: For the Record Reply #269 - Jan 22^nd, 2011 at 3:12pm gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 22^nd, 2011 at 1:41pm: Perceptions....why are you SO fixated on the US economy???? What would your guess be?
Back to top	IP Logged

Pages: 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 ... 117

‹ Previous Topic | Next Topic ›

« Forum

‹ Board

Top of this page