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Re: Climate Science (Read 80980 times)
Paella
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #60 - Jun 10th, 2010 at 11:55pm
 
Soren wrote on Jun 10th, 2010 at 11:11pm:
Paella wrote on Jun 10th, 2010 at 11:09pm:
...but he can do a very convincing impersonation of someone who is!

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..........................

I present herewith exhibit A.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #61 - Jun 15th, 2010 at 10:14pm
 
Paella wrote on Jun 6th, 2010 at 4:44pm:
If I hold a cup at shoulder height and drop it, it will accelerate towards the Earth. That prediction is based on a theoretical model. Is it, therefore, inaccurate?



It is not inaccurate if if you share a fundamentally Christian worldview. But if you are, say,  a Mohammedan, then your prediction is based on a wild misunderstanding of the universe:

"One of the core tenets of Islamic philosophy is that everything in the universe is continously being upheld by Allah. Thus, a stone does not fall to the ground due to (secular) gravity, it falls because it is the will of Allah. Was Allah to change his will, the stone might just as well fly upwards tomorrow, for Allah is considered to be upholder of all things, and thus able to do anything he desires. The implication is that in principle it it futile to search for consistent behaviour and natural laws, for any such laws could be reversed by Allah without notice."
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Paella
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #62 - Jun 16th, 2010 at 4:46pm
 
I see, soren, that you have retreated to your old MO:

When all else fails, change the subject.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #63 - Jun 16th, 2010 at 11:40pm
 
Paella wrote on Jun 16th, 2010 at 4:46pm:
I see, soren, that you have retreated to your old MO:

When all else fails, change the subject.


The subject remains the same: the reliability and/or universal acceptability of models. Your model of gravity is not accepted by people who swear by  completely different model.

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muso
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #64 - Jun 17th, 2010 at 8:03am
 
When it comes to most matters, both Christians and Muslims invariably revert to their common sense, regardless of what they have been taught.  I have met Muslim scientists who would take a major issue with your caricature of Muslim thought.

What you describe is no different to the Christian or Jewish God. In practice, it doesn't change much in terms of scientific thought.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #65 - Jul 11th, 2010 at 2:16pm
 
muso wrote on Jun 17th, 2010 at 8:03am:
When it comes to most matters, both Christians and Muslims invariably revert to their common sense, regardless of what they have been taught.  I have met Muslim scientists who would take a major issue with your caricature of Muslim thought.

What you describe is no different to the Christian or Jewish God. In practice, it doesn't change much in terms of scientific thought.


Good work, Muso, I liked your spread on -
Climate Change (Global Warming) Explained

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #66 - Jul 11th, 2010 at 4:37pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jul 11th, 2010 at 2:16pm:
muso wrote on Jun 17th, 2010 at 8:03am:
When it comes to most matters, both Christians and Muslims invariably revert to their common sense, regardless of what they have been taught.  I have met Muslim scientists who would take a major issue with your caricature of Muslim thought.

What you describe is no different to the Christian or Jewish God. In practice, it doesn't change much in terms of scientific thought.


Good work, Muso, I liked your spread on -
Climate Change (Global Warming) Explained



Thanks for your feedback.
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vegitamite
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #67 - Jul 11th, 2010 at 9:25pm
 
I have pasted  this  quite a lot in 'Climate Science proof of  'debates. I like this explanation;

Don't expect science to come up with 'definitive proof' of climate change. It can't. Science makes observations, then develops theories based on those observations, and then make predictions based on those theories. If those predictions don't come to pass, they adjust their theories until their predictions more accurately reflect the observations. In this way scientific predictions evolve as new observations are made. At this stage the vast majority of observations are consistent that human activity playing a major role in causing climate change. If YOU want to bet that the scientists are wrong - be it on YOUR head if they are right!!! And if they are wrong, we can all save a truck load of money by cutting down on our wasteful energy-consuming life styles


Smiley
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muso
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #68 - Jul 12th, 2010 at 1:54pm
 
Quote:
I have pasted  this  quite a lot in 'Climate Science proof of  'debates. I like this explanation;

Don't expect science to come up with 'definitive proof' of climate change. It can't. Science makes observations, then develops theories based on those observations, and then make predictions based on those theories. If those predictions don't come to pass, they adjust their theories until their predictions more accurately reflect the observations. In this way scientific predictions evolve as new observations are made. At this stage the vast majority of observations are consistent that human activity playing a major role in causing climate change. If YOU want to bet that the scientists are wrong - be it on YOUR head if they are right!!! And if they are wrong, we can all save a truck load of money by cutting down on our wasteful energy-consuming life styles


Smiley



True, but it makes it appear that the odds in favour of established climate science being wrong, is much higher than it actually is. Maybe I'm reading it wrongly.

It's not an each-way bet.  I hate to criticise, but we're talking about almost certainty here. You can't 'prove' that the sun will rise tomorrow morning either.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #69 - Jul 27th, 2010 at 2:45pm
 
You wouldn't read about it: climate scientists right


Chances are, you have not heard much about Climategate lately, but last November it dominated the media. Three weeks before the Copenhagen summit, thousands of emails from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia were published on a Russian website.

The research institute was a leading contributor to the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and some of the leaked emails showed the scientists in a poor light.

The scandal was one of the pivotal moments in changing the politics of climate change. What seemed close to a bipartisan agreement on an environmental trading scheme collapsed with Tony Abbott's defeat of Malcolm Turnbull. Within months the Rudd government lost its nerve on what the former prime minister called ''the greatest moral and economic challenge of our time''.

By casting doubt on the integrity of the scientists, Climategate helped puncture public faith in the science, and probably contributed to Labor's political panic. The echo chamber of columnists reverberated with angry and accusatory claims. In Australia, Piers Akerman said: ''The tsunami of leaked emails ... reveal a culture of fraud, manipulation, deceit and personal vindictiveness to rival anything in a John le Carre or John Grisham thriller.'' Later he wrote: ''The crowd that gathered in Copenhagen were there pushing a fraud.''

Andrew Bolt thought that ''what they reveal is perhaps the greatest scientific scandal'' of our time. ''Emails leaked on the weekend show there is indeed a conspiracy to deceive the world - and Mr Rudd has fallen for it.''

Miranda Devine wrote: ''We see clearly the rotten heart of the propaganda machine that has driven the world to the brink of insanity.''

The ramifications of Climategate were immediate. The climate unit's head, Professor Phil Jones, was forced to stand down. Three inquiries were set up to examine the scientists' conduct.

The first, a British House of Commons select committee, reported in March that the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and the CRU remained intact. The second, a science assessment panel, set up with the Royal Society and consisting of eminent British researchers, reported in April.

Its chairman, Lord Oxburgh, said his team found ''absolutely no evidence of any impropriety whatsoever'' and that ''whatever was said in the emails, the basic science seems to have been done fairly and properly''.

The third, set up by the university itself, published its 160-page report two weeks ago. On the specific allegations made against the behaviour of the CRU scientists, ''we find that the rigour and honesty [of the scientists] as scientists are not in doubt''. Importantly, it concluded: ''We did not find any evidence of behaviour that might undermine the conclusions of the IPCC assessments.''

In other words, nothing in the emails undermined the research of the climate scientists. Like the other two, the inquiry found aspects of the scientists' behaviour that fell short of professional standards - ''failing to display the proper degree of openness''.

While not fully excusing their behaviour, one has to appreciate the embattled position of scientists who received a steady stream of obscene and abusive emails and constant public attacks on their integrity.

After the leaks, Jones, now reinstated, received death threats and said he had contemplated suicide.

You might imagine the media would be keen to report on authoritative conclusions about allegations it had found so newsworthy in December. But coverage of each of the reports has been non-existent in many news organisations and in others brief or without prominence.

The newspapers that gave greatest play to the allegations tended to give less attention to the findings. The columnists who gave greatest vent to their indignation have not made any revisions or corrections, let alone apologised to the scientists whose integrity they so sweepingly impugned.

Even at the time, it was clear much of the coverage was more attuned to maximising sensation rather than to reporting with precision. The sheer number of leaked emails, for instance, was sometimes taken as proof of the scale of the scandal, as if they were all disreputable.

It is a common criticism of the media that it prominently publishes allegations, but gives less coverage to the prosaic facts that later refute them. But rarely is the disproportion so stark. Rarely has such an edifice of sweeping accusation and extravagant invective been constructed on such a slender factual basis.

Rarely does it do such damage.
Link -
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/you-wouldnt-read-about-it-clima...
===========
But, in the interim, the timing and ferocity of the attacks meant that climate change was severely dented and mitigation was postponed for possibly 4 years or more.

The questions is who were those who stood to gain the most, from these outcomes?

That said, those in opposition are unlikely to change their stance.

Even if one or both Ice Poles were to substantially melt, the opposition would simply say it has happened before & it will happen again, Which is actually true, but not when there were 7 billion humans on the planet & not with humanity contributing so much to bring it on!
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Soren
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #70 - Jul 27th, 2010 at 3:13pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jul 27th, 2010 at 2:45pm:
Even if one or both Ice Poles were to substantially melt, the opposition would simply say it has happened before & it will happen again, Which is actually true,



Why did it happen the last time?

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #71 - Jul 27th, 2010 at 3:40pm
 
Soren wrote on Jul 27th, 2010 at 3:13pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Jul 27th, 2010 at 2:45pm:
Even if one or both Ice Poles were to substantially melt, the opposition would simply say it has happened before & it will happen again, Which is actually true,



Why did it happen the last time?



Well there was actually a long extended period in which there was no polar ice. The CO2 levels were elevated too at that time. (surprise surprise)

Around 20 million years ago, Antarctic ice began to grow. The CO2 levels over the last 20 million years showed a very gradual downwards trend from probably around 450ppm. Superimposed on that was orbital variation aka Milankovich Cycles.

There were some changes in the orbital variation roughly 1 million years ago, when it changed from a 41,000 glacial cycle to a 150,000 year cycle. We're just starting to get ice cores from that 1 million year horizon from Vostok now.
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #72 - Jul 29th, 2010 at 12:12am
 
muso wrote on Jul 27th, 2010 at 3:40pm:
Soren wrote on Jul 27th, 2010 at 3:13pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Jul 27th, 2010 at 2:45pm:
Even if one or both Ice Poles were to substantially melt, the opposition would simply say it has happened before & it will happen again, Which is actually true,



Why did it happen the last time?



Well there was actually a long extended period in which there was no polar ice. The CO2 levels were elevated too at that time. (surprise surprise)

Around 20 million years ago, Antarctic ice began to grow. The CO2 levels over the last 20 million years showed a very gradual downwards trend from probably around 450ppm. Superimposed on that was orbital variation aka Milankovich Cycles.

There were some changes in the orbital variation roughly 1 million years ago, when it changed from a 41,000 glacial cycle to a 150,000 year cycle. We're just starting to get ice cores from that 1 million year horizon from Vostok now.


And, coming out of the last Ice Age, there were hardly enough numbers of us (HUMANS) to have ourselves considered as a viable species.
...

We were lucky to have made it this far!

We have gone from around 3-4 MILLION around 10,000BC, to around 7 BILLION now and it is suggested that we numbers only in thousands at one point earlier on.
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muso
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #73 - Jul 29th, 2010 at 9:10am
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jul 29th, 2010 at 12:12am:
We were lucky to have made it this far!

We have gone from around 3-4 MILLION around 10,000BC, to around 7 BILLION now and it is suggested that we numbers only in thousands at one point earlier on.


Yeah. We were lucky as a species to make it through the Mt Toba eruption. That's one of the reasons all human beings are so closely related today. Some estimates put the lowest population at about 3,000.

Nevertheless population is not everything. In terms of carbon emissions, 100 poor Africans have the same carbon footprint as one Westerner.

This site might interest you. I've linked it once before, but I really like the cool presentation. Press Play once it loads.

http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/
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« Last Edit: Jul 29th, 2010 at 9:15am by muso »  

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perceptions_now
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Re: Climate Science
Reply #74 - Jul 29th, 2010 at 12:37pm
 
muso wrote on Jul 29th, 2010 at 9:10am:
perceptions_now wrote on Jul 29th, 2010 at 12:12am:
We were lucky to have made it this far!

We have gone from around 3-4 MILLION around 10,000BC, to around 7 BILLION now and it is suggested that we numbers only in thousands at one point earlier on.


Yeah. We were lucky as a species to make it through the Mt Toba eruption. That's one of the reasons all human beings are so closely related today. Some estimates put the lowest population at about 3,000.

1) Nevertheless population is not everything. In terms of carbon emissions, 100 poor Africans have the same carbon footprint as one Westerner.

2) This site might interest you. I've linked it once before, but I really like the cool presentation. Press Play once it loads.

http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/


1) Whilst I agree that Population isn't everything, it certainly is a VERY LARGE part of the problems.

That said, it also works in with your comment about Africans & Westerners, which comes back to Carbon emssions per capita.  

What we have, working thru the current system, is around 2.5 Billion Chinese, Indian & a few others trying to transition from "third world" conditions, to "Western" living, with all that is implied.

My perception (with or without evidence), is that they can not be blamed for wanting what others already have, such as the USA, Europe & OZ.  

However, the reality is that neither they nor us would make it to the other end in tact, as Food, Energy & other essential resources simply could not support another 2.5 Billion Amercian style consumers, except for a very short time, on top on the existing 600 Million or so (in the US Eurpoe & elsewhere), who have already achieved that level of consumption.

In fact, everyone's consumption & the total Global Population is going to have to be reduced substantially, if we (humans) are to make it thru.

In short, we must all start thinking LONG TERM.  
And INSTEAD of ME, the THRUST MUST BE US!


2) Yes, I agree, good site!  
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