gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 18^th, 2010 at 1:45pm:


Good. That's the point I was making too - the 80:20 rule.


Quote:


You've fallen for that fallacy, have you? - and it is a fallacy. I can see I need to talk about the carbon balance. I'll try to find some of my older posts on that and see if I can clarify them.

You are obviously capable of understanding the issues. It makes for a change. I disagree with p_n that you'll never be convinced.

The science is easy. Getting around the deliberate smokescreens is less easy.

Let me collect my thoughts on the carbon balance and see if I can make sense to you. Keep an open mind - that's all I ask.

You've had your turn Soren.

req wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2010 at 6:37pm:


Enjoy & join in!

Hi friends, Thanks for sharing some good information which is useful to me. I am new to the forum and i am glad to be here.


Thanks

muso wrote on Sep 18^th, 2010 at 9:02pm:

August 2010 Global Temperature Anomalies – Supplemental Figures and Information

Summary Figures from the Global Report
The global report is a monthly snapshot of the climate system around the globe that informs the public of the current state of the global climate and helps planners, academics and sector users factor the climate’s current state and recent trends into their decision making. The report details the average global land temperature, the average global ocean temperature, and the combined average of the two. Instead of using raw temperatures, the report presents temperature anomalies, which means the difference from average temperatures for any given area over a period of time. Using anomalies allows for a more accurate understanding of temperature trends over space and time, even with some fluctuations in data availability (see additional information below).

August 2010 Global Temperature Anomalies
This figure depicts the global surface temperature anomalies for the month of July from 1880 to 2010.


Highlights:
The global land and ocean surface temperature (land and ocean) for August 2010 was the third warmest August on record, behind 1998 (warmest) and 2009 (second warmest).
This was the 306th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last month with below average temperatures was February 1985.
It was the second warmest August on record for the land surfaces of the globe. Previous record was set in 1998. It was the warmest August on record for the Northern Hemisphere and all land areas of the Northern Hemisphere.
The worldwide oceans experienced the sixth warmest August on record. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to decrease as La Niña continued to develop. This tends to have a slight cooling influence on global sea surface temperatures, much as El Niño tends to have a slight warming influence on them.
The data from China had not yet arrived by the time NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center “froze” its analysis of August temperatures. The Chinese Meteorological Agency reported that August 2010 was the warmest on record for China, so it is likely that the final August temperature analysis is very slightly warmer than reported, especially for the Northern Hemisphere land component.

Year-to-Date January - August 2010 Global Temperature Anomalies
This figure depicts the global surface temperature anomalies for the period of time from January to August 2010. The temperature is compared to the average global temperature from 1971-2000.


Highlights:
The global land and ocean surface temperature (land and ocean) for January–August 2010 tied with 1998 as the warmest such period on record.
It was the warmest January–August on record for the land surfaces of the globe. The previous record was set in 2004.
The worldwide oceans experienced the second warmest August on record, behind 1998.

Comparing 10 years of Global Temperature Trends
Each of the 10 warmest average global temperatures recorded since 1880 have occurred in the last thirteen years. The warmest year-to-date on record, through August, was 1998 (note: although 1998 was the warmest year through August, a late-year surge in 2005 made that year the warmest total year). Analysis by the National Climatic Data Center reveals that, averaged globally, 2010 had the third-warmest August on record, and is virtually tied with 1998 for the warmest from January through August.


This graph plots the year-to-date average global land and ocean temperature. The 2010 value, complete only through August, is shown in bright red. On the graph, "ONI" stands for Oceanic Niño Index, which is one way of measuring whether El Niño or La Niña is occurring. Each of the three warmest years on record (2005, 1998, and [so far] 2010) began with a positive ONI, which is associated with El Niño and warmer than normal conditions across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, each of these years eventually transitioned into negative ONI values at some time in the year, which - after some lag - tends to depress global average temperatures slightly below the long-term trend.


Link -
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100915_globalstats_sup.html
===================

It's a concern, but it needs to be quantified better. There is no major evidence of increased atmospheric methane levels around the tundra to date, and we can measure that real time from satellite. If there is going to be a significantly greater effect than that from CO2, it will occur after 2100.

Of course we're getting into unknown territory, so it's possible that  we'll see methane start to rise again.  So far, it has plateaued. If methane clathrates start decomposing, we don't even know if we can stop it. The best option might be to capture it if possible and use it for fuel.