Australian Politics Forum - Re: Climate Science

perceptions_now

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #240 - Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:43pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:27pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 8^th, 2010 at 2:11pm:

muso wrote on Sep 8^th, 2010 at 11:10am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 7^th, 2010 at 10:26pm:

Quote:

I think we are on safe ground to say -
1) We are approaching the end of a long period of warming, which started in the depths of the last Ice Age.
2) It is very likely that we (humans) and our Industrial & Defense complex, have had a substabtial impact on what is happening and we may even be fast tracking the process.
3) As sure as night follows Day, the current warming period will Peak, at some future time and then another Ice Age will follow. That much can be clearly demonstrated by scientific history.

The period in between now & the onset of the next Ice Age must see a dramatic change in humanity, otherwise we will not survive!

I have had a great appreciation of those thoughts, for some time!

"1) We are approaching the end of a long period of warming, which started in the depths of the last Ice Age."..
Umm no, the current InterGlacial period (the Holocene) which started about 12,000 years ago, and the Glacial Period (or Ice Age if you prefer) ended 15,000 years ago...

This is simply one of many 'warmer' periods with in the Glaciation....

I'd dispute parts of the highlighted analysis, but the explanation will take longer than this post.

We are in an interglacial, but most people with the exception of geologists use the terms "Ice Age" and glaciation interchangeably.

The actual terminology is not important. We can see from the ice core records that there is cyclic variation in global temperatures due to the Milankovich cycles. The actual period of those cycles changed about 1 million years ago from around 41,000 years to about 100,000 years.

The next glacial period is due in around 50,000 years. That will happen regardless of what we do to the atmosphere in the next 100 years.

Again, it's all too easy to talk about a slow warming. You need to look at the actual data to see what is actually occurring. We can do that if you like.

Muso,
The highlighted area would be me, I think.

Perhaps there is a discussion about correct terminology, but whatever we call the various periods, one end is too bloody cold for a complex society such as we now have and the other end is too bloody hot!

Enough of the levity!

The facts are clear that -
1) We (humans) have impacted the recent part of this warming cycle.
2) The Peak between the top of this warming cycle, compared to other recent gaps, shows that this current gap is already longer than usual.
3) As we have both said, it is certain that once the current warming cycle finishes, it will be followed by another Ice Age/Glacial period.
4) In my humble opinion, the sort of complex human society we see today, will have an uphill battle to survive the next Ice Age/Glacial period, whenever it arrives.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f8/Ice_Age_Temperature.png...

One end of the scale will be too cold for society......but unless the 'other end' goes over 10 degrees above the current temps......we will still be able to deal with it...

Do you think so?

10 degrees above current temperatures? Really?

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muso

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #241 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 8:28am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:27pm:

One end of the scale will be too cold for society......but unless the 'other end' goes over 10 degrees above the current temps......we will still be able to deal with it...

Gizmo - if you're young enough, just wait until we see 2045. That will probably be about 2-3 degrees of warming. Do you want me to dig out some papers on the effects on dwindling water supplies, differential migration of ecosystems, reduced calcification in marine organisms, including most commercial catches (Google otolith) etc. ?

Can you grow tomatoes in Summer where you are? I can grow them over winter, but not in Summer. On the back of a packet of seeds, you'll see a map of Australia which indicates where certain plants will grow. For many crop species, it's quite limited.

Just add look at the isotherms on this map and imagine them 3 degrees higher. Do the same for summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/temperature/index.jsp

There are very few people who share your opinion that we could survive at anything like 10 degrees above the current. Think what a seasonal 1 degree anomaly does to bushfire frequency alone.

Quote:

No, my money is not on the 'World' ending...but instead on the world becoming unsuitable for human life....

In other words....WE may become extinct, like the dinosaurs..

I picked up this quote from the other thread. Interesting that you think that way. I am an eternal optimist. I'd like to think that we'll conquer the energy barrier. There are two things that will affect it - These are Global warming and Peak resources. Peak resources include Oil, Phosphates and a few other things.

With Peak resources, it's a question of demand outstripping supply in the first instance.

Maybe some commercial crops will grow somewhere on Earth with temperatures 10 degrees higher than today's. The question is more related to crop yields, land areas that are suited for cropping, rainfall patterns, coastal aquifer salinity etc.

It all comes down to the demands of a 6.8 billion population.

Do I share your view that humanity will no longer be able to live on Earth? No. I think that we have the nouse to survive.

I honestly think we'll eventually get things under control, but not without some pain.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #242 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 9:55am

muso wrote on Sep 15^th, 2010 at 8:28am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:27pm:

One end of the scale will be too cold for society......but unless the 'other end' goes over 10 degrees above the current temps......we will still be able to deal with it...

Gizmo - if you're young enough, just wait until we see 2045. That will probably be about 2-3 degrees of warming. Do you want me to dig out some papers on the effects on dwindling water supplies, differential migration of ecosystems, reduced calcification in marine organisms, including most commercial catches (Google otolith) etc. ?

Can you grow tomatoes in Summer where you are? I can grow them over winter, but not in Summer. On the back of a packet of seeds, you'll see a map of Australia which indicates where certain plants will grow. For many crop species, it's quite limited.

Just add look at the isotherms on this map and imagine them 3 degrees higher. Do the same for summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/temperature/index.jsp

There are very few people who share your opinion that we could survive at anything like 10 degrees above the current. Think what a seasonal 1 degree anomaly does to bushfire frequency alone.

Quote:

No, my money is not on the 'World' ending...but instead on the world becoming unsuitable for human life....

In other words....WE may become extinct, like the dinosaurs..

I picked up this quote from the other thread. Interesting that you think that way. I am an eternal optimist. I'd like to think that we'll conquer the energy barrier. There are two things that will affect it - These are Global warming and Peak resources. Peak resources include Oil, Phosphates and a few other things.

With Peak resources, it's a question of demand outstripping supply in the first instance.

Maybe some commercial crops will grow somewhere on Earth with temperatures 10 degrees higher than today's. The question is more related to crop yields, land areas that are suited for cropping, rainfall patterns, coastal aquifer salinity etc.

It all comes down to the demands of a 6.8 billion population.

Do I share your view that humanity will no longer be able to live on Earth? No. I think that we have the nouse to survive.

I honestly think we'll eventually get things under control, but not without some pain.

Well I don't garden, myself......but my neighbour does......and they did grow tomatoes last summer I think...

And I've read various papers (and websites) that seem to indicate that equatorial regions don't have the massive fluctuations in temperature that the more 'polar' areas do..(although the articles only mention the northern Hemisphere).....

In other words, the increases would be far more 'extreme' in Northern Europe/America than in, say Queensland.....

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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perceptions_now

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #243 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 1:47pm

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:43pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:27pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 8^th, 2010 at 2:11pm:

muso wrote on Sep 8^th, 2010 at 11:10am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 7^th, 2010 at 10:26pm:

Quote:

I think we are on safe ground to say -
1) We are approaching the end of a long period of warming, which started in the depths of the last Ice Age.
2) It is very likely that we (humans) and our Industrial & Defense complex, have had a substabtial impact on what is happening and we may even be fast tracking the process.
3) As sure as night follows Day, the current warming period will Peak, at some future time and then another Ice Age will follow. That much can be clearly demonstrated by scientific history.

The period in between now & the onset of the next Ice Age must see a dramatic change in humanity, otherwise we will not survive!

I have had a great appreciation of those thoughts, for some time!

"1) We are approaching the end of a long period of warming, which started in the depths of the last Ice Age."..
Umm no, the current InterGlacial period (the Holocene) which started about 12,000 years ago, and the Glacial Period (or Ice Age if you prefer) ended 15,000 years ago...

This is simply one of many 'warmer' periods with in the Glaciation....

I'd dispute parts of the highlighted analysis, but the explanation will take longer than this post.

We are in an interglacial, but most people with the exception of geologists use the terms "Ice Age" and glaciation interchangeably.

The actual terminology is not important. We can see from the ice core records that there is cyclic variation in global temperatures due to the Milankovich cycles. The actual period of those cycles changed about 1 million years ago from around 41,000 years to about 100,000 years.

The next glacial period is due in around 50,000 years. That will happen regardless of what we do to the atmosphere in the next 100 years.

Again, it's all too easy to talk about a slow warming. You need to look at the actual data to see what is actually occurring. We can do that if you like.

Muso,
The highlighted area would be me, I think.

Perhaps there is a discussion about correct terminology, but whatever we call the various periods, one end is too bloody cold for a complex society such as we now have and the other end is too bloody hot!

Enough of the levity!

The facts are clear that -
1) We (humans) have impacted the recent part of this warming cycle.
2) The Peak between the top of this warming cycle, compared to other recent gaps, shows that this current gap is already longer than usual.
3) As we have both said, it is certain that once the current warming cycle finishes, it will be followed by another Ice Age/Glacial period.
4) In my humble opinion, the sort of complex human society we see today, will have an uphill battle to survive the next Ice Age/Glacial period, whenever it arrives.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f8/Ice_Age_Temperature.png...

One end of the scale will be too cold for society......but unless the 'other end' goes over 10 degrees above the current temps......we will still be able to deal with it...

Do you think so?

10 degrees above current temperatures? Really?

Gizmo,
I thought you may appreciate the following chart?

Much over 2-3 degrees and we will really start "smokin"!

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #244 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 2:19pm

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 15^th, 2010 at 1:47pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:43pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 14^th, 2010 at 10:27pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 8^th, 2010 at 2:11pm:

muso wrote on Sep 8^th, 2010 at 11:10am:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 7^th, 2010 at 10:26pm:

Quote:

I think we are on safe ground to say -
1) We are approaching the end of a long period of warming, which started in the depths of the last Ice Age.
2) It is very likely that we (humans) and our Industrial & Defense complex, have had a substabtial impact on what is happening and we may even be fast tracking the process.
3) As sure as night follows Day, the current warming period will Peak, at some future time and then another Ice Age will follow. That much can be clearly demonstrated by scientific history.

The period in between now & the onset of the next Ice Age must see a dramatic change in humanity, otherwise we will not survive!

I have had a great appreciation of those thoughts, for some time!

"1) We are approaching the end of a long period of warming, which started in the depths of the last Ice Age."..
Umm no, the current InterGlacial period (the Holocene) which started about 12,000 years ago, and the Glacial Period (or Ice Age if you prefer) ended 15,000 years ago...

This is simply one of many 'warmer' periods with in the Glaciation....

I'd dispute parts of the highlighted analysis, but the explanation will take longer than this post.

We are in an interglacial, but most people with the exception of geologists use the terms "Ice Age" and glaciation interchangeably.

The actual terminology is not important. We can see from the ice core records that there is cyclic variation in global temperatures due to the Milankovich cycles. The actual period of those cycles changed about 1 million years ago from around 41,000 years to about 100,000 years.

The next glacial period is due in around 50,000 years. That will happen regardless of what we do to the atmosphere in the next 100 years.

Again, it's all too easy to talk about a slow warming. You need to look at the actual data to see what is actually occurring. We can do that if you like.

Muso,
The highlighted area would be me, I think.

Perhaps there is a discussion about correct terminology, but whatever we call the various periods, one end is too bloody cold for a complex society such as we now have and the other end is too bloody hot!

Enough of the levity!

The facts are clear that -
1) We (humans) have impacted the recent part of this warming cycle.
2) The Peak between the top of this warming cycle, compared to other recent gaps, shows that this current gap is already longer than usual.
3) As we have both said, it is certain that once the current warming cycle finishes, it will be followed by another Ice Age/Glacial period.
4) In my humble opinion, the sort of complex human society we see today, will have an uphill battle to survive the next Ice Age/Glacial period, whenever it arrives.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f8/Ice_Age_Temperature.png...

One end of the scale will be too cold for society......but unless the 'other end' goes over 10 degrees above the current temps......we will still be able to deal with it...

Do you think so?

10 degrees above current temperatures? Really?

Gizmo,
I thought you may appreciate the following chart?

http://www.gemzies.com/img_photos/risk_and_impacts_of_global_warming_global_warming_9_9c748eb566d7d846ad974b84600630e1_490x350.png

Much over 2-3 degrees and we will really start "smokin"!

According to the same people pushing AGW.....

The point is, humans first evolved in a climate between 3 and 5 degrees warmer than now...

We've managed to adapt and survive in temperatures that were up to 15 degrees C COLDER than now......
If we can exist in conditions up to 20 C colder than optimum, why will 5 C hotter than optimum be lethal????

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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perceptions_now

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #245 - Sep 15^th, 2010 at 6:37pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Sep 15^th, 2010 at 2:19pm: