Australian Politics Forum - Re: Climate Science

muso

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #90 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 12:31am

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 31^st, 2010 at 10:31pm:

And, if warming trend projections become reality, we (humans) may find out (to our detriment), just how much potential there is, in a massive Methane thawing of the Artic Tundra.

Like some other things, this event is not one you want on your watch or on your resume, it could be an Extinction Level Event, from our perspective!

Exactly. The other 'watch this space' event is the release of methane clathrates from the sea bed.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #91 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:09pm

The current warming event is not, in truth, detrimental to humans...

The various Homo Sapien species evolved in condition that were much warmer than today...
If anything, the current global average temperatures are several degrees celcius below the optimum for human life.
We, as a species, can adapt to higher temperatures...it's lower temperatures that cause problems for humans...

All the 'life will die if the average temperature increases by 2 degrees C' stories are complete rubbish....
Before the last Glaciation the temperatures were as much as 10-20 degrees C higher than now.....That is when the hominids first evolved

During the Roman Warm Period(2.5-3 C warmer than now) is when all the great civilizations like the Babylonians, the Greeks, the Egyptians and the Romans flourished....But during the last Ice Age Glaciation is when humans very nearly died out....

We are NOT adapted to low temperatures, but to mild or high temperatures....
We are currently moving out of a period of LOW temperatures and into a period of more mild or high temperatures....

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mozzaok

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #92 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:51pm

How on earth can you compare humankinds ability to survive higher temps by saying the hunter gatherer lifestyle would be able to sustain 8 billion people?

If temps were warmer when early man ran around throwing pointy sticks at things, I hardly think that is relevant to how a modern agricultural society would cope with rapidly changing temperatures.

What so many people that deny climate change is an issue fail to appreciate is the rate of change is unprecedented.

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OOPS!!! My Karma, ran over your Dogma!

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #93 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:07pm

mozzaok wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:51pm:

How on earth can you compare humankinds ability to survive higher temps by saying the hunter gatherer lifestyle would be able to sustain 8 billion people?

If temps were warmer when early man ran around throwing pointy sticks at things, I hardly think that is relevant to how a modern agricultural society would cope with rapidly changing temperatures.

What so many people that deny climate change is an issue fail to appreciate is the rate of change is unprecedented.

How can you claim that the only gas in the whole 'Greenhouse Gas' cocktail that is 'bad' is also the only one that is necessary for the continuation of life on Earth?????

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #94 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:16pm

mozzaok wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:51pm:

How on earth can you compare humankinds ability to survive higher temps by saying the hunter gatherer lifestyle would be able to sustain 8 billion people?

If temps were warmer when early man ran around throwing pointy sticks at things, I hardly think that is relevant to how a modern agricultural society would cope with rapidly changing temperatures.

What so many people that deny climate change is an issue fail to appreciate is the rate of change is unprecedented.

I didn't say that adaption to increased temperatures won't produce difficulties...
It will. We'll need to move away from the equator for a start...
But then most of the 'colonisation' was carried out during the Little Ice Age, when Europe was too cold to support many people...

We might have to colonise North and South, away from the tropics....But that isn't a major problem....

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muso

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #95 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:36pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:09pm:

The current warming event is not, in truth, detrimental to humans...

The various Homo Sapien species evolved in condition that were much warmer than today...
If anything, the current global average temperatures are several degrees celcius below the optimum for human life.
We, as a species, can adapt to higher temperatures...it's lower temperatures that cause problems for humans...

All the 'life will die if the average temperature increases by 2 degrees C' stories are complete rubbish....
Before the last Glaciation the temperatures were as much as 10-20 degrees C higher than now.....That is when the hominids first evolved

During the Roman Warm Period(2.5-3 C warmer than now) is when all the great civilizations like the Babylonians, the Greeks, the Egyptians and the Romans flourished....But during the last Ice Age Glaciation is when humans very nearly died out....

We are NOT adapted to low temperatures, but to mild or high temperatures....
We are currently moving out of a period of LOW temperatures and into a period of more mild or high temperatures....

If it was all about temperature then things would be just dandy, but it's not.

First of all it's about rate of change - rate of change of ocean acidification and rate of change of temperature.

You need to check your sources on the Roman Period. They're wrong, that is from a global perspective. You're probably quoting Plimer. He has a few howlers in his book.

Quote:

Before the last Glaciation the temperatures were as much as 10-20 degrees C higher than now.....That is when the hominids first evolved

That was quite a few glaciations ago. You're talking about at least 2 million years BP. Homo Sapiens didn't even exist then. Let me check that data and clarify what you're saying.

(edit ) Try about 2 degrees, and you'd have to go back 5 million years..

However, things were starting to get a bit boring around here with all the resident denialists keeping clear.

You are very welcome. Expect some of your points to be disputed though.

orexis leonis magnus est Shocked

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« Last Edit: Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:56pm by muso »

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muso

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #96 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:39pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:07pm:

mozzaok wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:51pm:

How on earth can you compare humankinds ability to survive higher temps by saying the hunter gatherer lifestyle would be able to sustain 8 billion people?

If temps were warmer when early man ran around throwing pointy sticks at things, I hardly think that is relevant to how a modern agricultural society would cope with rapidly changing temperatures.

What so many people that deny climate change is an issue fail to appreciate is the rate of change is unprecedented.

How can you claim that the only gas in the whole 'Greenhouse Gas' cocktail that is 'bad' is also the only one that is necessary for the continuation of life on Earth?????

Water is essential for life too, but it doesn't mean that drowning is good for you.

Again, nobody is claiming that it's only about one gas. Didn't you read my post in which I was discussing methane?

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #97 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:42pm

mozzaok wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:51pm:

How on earth can you compare humankinds ability to survive higher temps by saying the hunter gatherer lifestyle would be able to sustain 8 billion people?

What 8 billion people are you talking about???
We haven't reached 8 billion YET, and probably won't until about 2023....

All the 'environmentalist' groups are against 2 things, industry and population.....so there's a good chance we will NEVER reach 8 billion population....

The whole 'luddite'(AGW) concept is designed to a) Destroy industrial manufacturing, and return us to agrarian, non-technological farming and b) reduce the population to 'sustainable' levels....
THAT is the whole purpose behind the AGW/CC ideology....to make ALL humans live in communes and grow their own food, make thier own clothes and relinquish all maunfacturing, medicine and technology....

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muso

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #98 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:48pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:42pm:

mozzaok wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:51pm:

How on earth can you compare humankinds ability to survive higher temps by saying the hunter gatherer lifestyle would be able to sustain 8 billion people?

What 8 billion people are you talking about???
We haven't reached 8 billion YET, and probably won't until about 2023....

All the 'environmentalist' groups are against 2 things, industry and population.....so there's a good chance we will NEVER reach 8 billion population....

The whole 'luddite'(AGW) concept is designed to a) Destroy industrial manufacturing, and return us to agrarian, non-technological farming and b) reduce the population to 'sustainable' levels....
THAT is the whole purpose behind the AGW/CC ideology....to make ALL humans live in communes and grow their own food, make thier own clothes and relinquish all maunfacturing, medicine and technology....

Mate, if people lived in communes growing their own food organically , most of us would die.

Do you think that the CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are behind this so-called conspiracy too?

I don't know about your objectives, but survival is top of my agenda.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #99 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:48pm

muso wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:36pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:09pm:

The current warming event is not, in truth, detrimental to humans...

The various Homo Sapien species evolved in condition that were much warmer than today...
If anything, the current global average temperatures are several degrees celcius below the optimum for human life.
We, as a species, can adapt to higher temperatures...it's lower temperatures that cause problems for humans...

All the 'life will die if the average temperature increases by 2 degrees C' stories are complete rubbish....
Before the last Glaciation the temperatures were as much as 10-20 degrees C higher than now.....That is when the hominids first evolved

During the Roman Warm Period(2.5-3 C warmer than now) is when all the great civilizations like the Babylonians, the Greeks, the Egyptians and the Romans flourished....But during the last Ice Age Glaciation is when humans very nearly died out....

We are NOT adapted to low temperatures, but to mild or high temperatures....
We are currently moving out of a period of LOW temperatures and into a period of more mild or high temperatures....

If it was all about temperature then things would be just dandy, but it's not.

First of all it's about rate of change - rate of change of ocean acidification and rate of change of temperature.

You need to check your sources on the Roman Period. They're wrong, that is from a global perspective. You're probably quoting Plimer. He has a few howlers in his book.

However, things were starting to get a bit boring around here with all the resident denialists keeping clear.

You are very welcome. Expect some of your points to be disputed though.

orexis leonis magnus est Shocked

The 'rate of change' is NO higher than it has been at any number of times in history....

The 'usual' rate of increase/decrease of temperatures throughout history is 1-2 degrees C per century.....

The rate of 'change' since 1850 has been 0.7-1.5 degrees C per century....In other words....right in the middle of the 'normal' range for temperature change...

So NO different to the changes (up or down) in temp that have happened at any other time in history....

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Climate Science Reply #100 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:50pm You'll need data to back that up, because your assertion is incorrect re rate of change.
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muso

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #101 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:53pm

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:42pm:

mozzaok wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:51pm:

How on earth can you compare humankinds ability to survive higher temps by saying the hunter gatherer lifestyle would be able to sustain 8 billion people?

What 8 billion people are you talking about???
We haven't reached 8 billion YET, and probably won't until about 2023....

*Strawman already responded to*

The problem we face is not so much the conditions now, but those between now and the end of the century. You have a problem with projecting the population to 8 Billion? and a period of 13 years?

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muso

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #102 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 7:22pm

Quote:

Before the last Glaciation the temperatures were as much as 10-20 degrees C higher than now.....That is when the hominids first evolved

I'm very interested in your source for this, because it's so wrong that it's amusing.

I think your source means the period when Mount Toba erupted which was around 74,000 years BP.

At that time, modern human beings existed. There were also Neaderthals around of course.

Hominids first evolved around 5 million years BP. At that time, glaciations were taking place every 41,000 years. The first homo species appeared around 2.5million years BP (give or take a million years or so). That was around 30 glaciations ago.

The last interglacial was around 130,000 years ago, and the temperatures were around 2 degrees higher than today's on a global basis.

As far as trends in ocean acidification are concerned, you'd have to go much much further back to find rates of change similar to today and the projected values of the next 50 years or so. - and it wasn't a very good period for the world's species.

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #103 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 7:42pm

muso wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 7:22pm:

Quote:

Before the last Glaciation the temperatures were as much as 10-20 degrees C higher than now.....That is when the hominids first evolved

I'm very interested in your source for this, because it's so wrong that it's amusing.

I think your source means the period when Mount Toba erupted which was around 74,000 years BP.

At that time, modern human beings existed. There were also Neaderthals around of course.

Hominids first evolved around 5 million years BP. At that time, glaciations were taking place every 41,000 years. The first homo species appeared around 2.5million years BP (give or take a million years or so). That was around 30 glaciations ago.

The last interglacial was around 130,000 years ago, and the temperatures were around 2 degrees higher than today's on a global basis.

As far as trends in ocean acidification are concerned, you'd have to go much much further back to find rates of change similar to today and the projected values of the next 50 years or so. - and it wasn't a very good period for the world's species.

Hmm 'so wrong that it's amusing'???
Ok try this:
"the mid-Pliocene was similar to today in terms of the positions of the continents and oceans and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, but global warmth was distributed differently. During the mid-Pliocene, temperatures at high northern latitudes, above 70°N, were as much as 10°–20°C higher than today, but tropical temperatures were near the same. Understanding the much warmer mid-Pliocene climate, then, has the potential to unlock the secret to climate sensitivity. The past may indeed be the key to the present. "

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008EO490001.shtml

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gizmo_2655

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Re: Climate Science
Reply #104 - Aug 1^st, 2010 at 7:44pm

muso wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 6:36pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 1^st, 2010 at 5:09pm:

The current warming event is not, in truth, detrimental to humans...

The various Homo Sapien species evolved in condition that were much warmer than today...
If anything, the current global average temperatures are several degrees celcius below the optimum for human life.
We, as a species, can adapt to higher temperatures...it's lower temperatures that cause problems for humans...

All the 'life will die if the average temperature increases by 2 degrees C' stories are complete rubbish....
Before the last Glaciation the temperatures were as much as 10-20 degrees C higher than now.....That is when the hominids first evolved

During the Roman Warm Period(2.5-3 C warmer than now) is when all the great civilizations like the Babylonians, the Greeks, the Egyptians and the Romans flourished....But during the last Ice Age Glaciation is when humans very nearly died out....

We are NOT adapted to low temperatures, but to mild or high temperatures....
We are currently moving out of a period of LOW temperatures and into a period of more mild or high temperatures....

If it was all about temperature then things would be just dandy, but it's not.

First of all it's about rate of change - rate of change of ocean acidification and rate of change of temperature.

You need to check your sources on the Roman Period. They're wrong, that is from a global perspective. You're probably quoting Plimer. He has a few howlers in his book.

Quote:

Before the last Glaciation the temperatures were as much as 10-20 degrees C higher than now.....That is when the hominids first evolved

That was quite a few glaciations ago. You're talking about at least 2 million years BP. Homo Sapiens didn't even exist then. Let me check that data and clarify what you're saying.

(edit ) Try about 2 degrees, and you'd have to go back 5 million years..

However, things were starting to get a bit boring around here with all the resident denialists keeping clear.

You are very welcome. Expect some of your points to be disputed though.

orexis leonis magnus est Shocked

And if you are stupid enough toi confuse 'Homo-Sapiens' with hominids, then you need help...

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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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