Australian Politics Forum - The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...

Paella

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #45 - May 1^st, 2010 at 2:56pm

Grendel wrote on May 1^st, 2010 at 12:08am:

Concede doesnt have to be hesitant nor with a grudge.

And no I'm not mixing them up.

I used concede in the ironic sense once I believe.

You do understand irony I take it Pooella?

Oh I understand Irony all right. I also understand what esp. means.

But I think you will find you were being sarcastic, not ironic.

You do understand sarcasm I take it Beopup?

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Grendel

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #46 - May 1^st, 2010 at 3:09pm

esp is the short form of Espana or Spain.
Sarcasm can be irionic or used as irony...
oh dear... so much to learn and so little time.

Do I understand sarcasm...?
I use it all the time.
So piss off with your penis measuring for a while will you... I find it not only tiresome but irksome...
you might like to look them up too.

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz... Reply #47 - May 1^st, 2010 at 3:11pm Quote: The bit that you missed was the fact that the data itself is valid - It's just the way it's expressed that's wrong. That could only be written by someone with a very biased pov with a very specific if not narrow agenda.
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Grendel

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #48 - May 1^st, 2010 at 3:18pm

back to the last point b4 the sidetrack...

Quote:

The atmosphere of Earth is a layer of gases surrounding the planet Earth that is retained by Earth's gravity. The atmosphere protects life on Earth by absorbing ultraviolet solar radiation, warming the surface through heat retention (greenhouse effect), and reducing temperature extremes between day and night. Dry air contains roughly (by volume) 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.038% carbon dioxide, and small amounts of other gases. Air also contains a variable amount of water vapor, on average around 1%.

Composition of Earth's atmosphere. The lower pie represents the trace gases which together compose 0.039% of the atmosphere. Values normalized for illustration. The numbers are from a variety of years (mainly 1987, with CO2 and methane from 2009) and do not represent any single source.

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180px-Atmosphere_gas_proportions_gif.png (19 KB | 50 )

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Grendel

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #49 - May 1^st, 2010 at 3:49pm

Quote:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) forms approximately 0.04% of the nominal 5,000,000 gigatonnes of gas and aerosols that comprise the Earth's atmosphere. It is essential to photosynthesis in plants and other photoautotrophs, and is also a prominent greenhouse gas.

Quote:

Over 95% of total CO2 emissions are non-anthropogenic.

Quote:

Composition of the Atmosphere

The atmosphere is primarily composed of Nitrogen (N2, 78%), Oxygen (O2, 21%), and Argon (Ar, 1%). A myriad of other very influential components are also present which include the water (H2O, 0 - 7%), "greenhouse" gases or Ozone (O, 0 - 0.01%), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2, 0.01-0.1%).

and.... we have....

http://www.visionlearning.com/library/module_viewer.php?mid=107

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« Last Edit: May 1^st, 2010 at 3:55pm by Grendel »

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz... Reply #50 - May 1^st, 2010 at 5:34pm Quote: Large amounts of carbon dioxide are dissolved in the oceans, plant life is also a major remover of CO2. Off all the CO2 emitted in the atmosphere (0,039%) only 3% is of human origin (0,00117%). Worldwide aviation emissions causes only 2% of all man made carbon in the atmosphere (0,0000234%).
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muso

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #51 - May 1^st, 2010 at 6:57pm

Good.

All that is true, although the >95% figure, and the 3 percent (on 1999 figures) is talking about carbon fluxes as I said before - and that doesn't really count because the natural fluxes balance.

Let me try to give an analogy. Imagine a hamster's tread mill with half of it in the water and half in the air. The treadmill goes round and round. The wire represents the carbon, and the total mass doesn't vary much from year to year although it's continually being transferred to and from the atmosphere. .

By burning fossil fuels, we are upsetting that balance, and here we leave the analogy. The extra bit of carbon that we add to the system goes mostly into the atmosphere and about 1/3 gets absorbed by the ocean. So it's accumulating each year. It might just be 2.9% of the flux based on 1999 figures, or 4.3% based on today's figures, but it's not going anywhere and it's accumulated since we first started burning fossil fuels so that we now have 20-25% of the CO2 due to Anthropogenic sources.

The worrying statistic is the fact that we are adding about 1% (and counting) of the atmosphere's total inventory of CO2 every single year.

On the Aviation emissions, well heavy transportation is all lumped together and accounts from about 14% globally. Aviation could account for 2%. I can't be bothered to check that at the moment, but it's probably about right.

None of what you've said so far comes as a revelation. Feel free to challenge any of my figures.

I like the new style of your posts, Grendel.

Let's chill out on the bickering guys.

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« Last Edit: May 1^st, 2010 at 7:28pm by muso »

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Grendel

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #52 - May 1^st, 2010 at 8:44pm

I understand about the adding to non-absorbed co2... I understand it varies over time and place.
I understand about carbon sinks.
I understand the carbon cycle and that you are saying we are adding to the non-absorbed atmospheric load (if I can put it like that).
Even though we live in a carbon based natural system and all carbon in whatever form... was there and will be there, stored or released.
(I know that is a bit vague).

My preferred solution is new technologies and reafforestation.

But here for now, I am talking about the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere/air by % of composition.

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« Last Edit: May 1^st, 2010 at 8:55pm by Grendel »

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muso

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #53 - May 1^st, 2010 at 9:54pm

The proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is one of the most well established things we can put a finger on.

Do you also understand that the major atmospheric gases (nitrogen and oxygen) don't absorb longwave infrared radiation to any extent, but carbon dioxide does, even though it's in a relatively tiny proportion of the entire atmosphere?

This is probably the most sense you've made for a long time if you don't mind me saying so.

Sooner or later we'll have to bite the bullet and go with new technologies. Apart from Global Warming, a lot of people are now saying that we reached peak oil in 2008, and that peak oil indirectly caused the GFC. (I'll explain that in more detail if you like) So for any number of reasons, we'll have to stop relying on fossil fuels, and phase them out while we have the chance.

Reafforestation sounds great, at least in the short term, but 30 or 40 years down the track, many forests will go from net carbon sinks to net emitters.

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Grendel

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #54 - May 1^st, 2010 at 10:10pm

Yes I understand that...
I also understand that water vapour is THE major greenhouse gas.
I also understand that CO2 in the outer layer radiates heat away from us.
But I will eventually get around to that.

BTW people have been saying we reached peak oil before that and every decade or so they repeat it.

We haven't reached peak oil.

There are also many more alternative sources if we get desperate enough to want to use them.

Peak oil is a fair way off yet.

As for making sense... I always have... you've just been too busy trying to ridicule me.

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« Last Edit: May 1^st, 2010 at 10:23pm by Grendel »

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muso

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #55 - May 1^st, 2010 at 10:22pm

Grendel wrote on May 1^st, 2010 at 10:10pm:

Yes I understand that...
I also understand that water vapour is THE major greenhouse gas.
I also understand that CO2 in the outer layer radiates heat away from us.
But I will eventually get around to that.

BTW people have been saying we reached peak oil before that and every decade or so they repeat it.

We haven't reached peak oil.

There are also many more alternative sources if we get desperate enough to want to use them.

Peak oil is a fair way off yet.

As for making sense... I always have... you've just been too busy trying to ridicule me.

Peak Oil is determined by production levels, and by demand outstripping supply. The GFC gave us time to prove more reserves, but getting back to 2008 levels is going to be difficult.

It has less to do with the actual reserves, and more to do with the rate at which we can extract oil to meet the growing demand. The limiting factor will be production rates, especially with new sources.

An article I read last week discussed how people with sub-prime mortgages had to pay ever increasing fuel costs, because they generally had further to travel to work than others. As a result of the fuel hikes, a lot more people started to default on their mortgages, and the rest is history.

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz... Reply #56 - May 1^st, 2010 at 10:26pm Believe me... they claimed we reached peak oil b4 the turn of the century... I read somewhere the US have reserves in Alaska as big as the Arabian fields and the new sources found in the Gulf are also very substantial. Canada have oil sands that potentially rival the Middle East.
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muso

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #57 - May 1^st, 2010 at 10:27pm

Grendel wrote on May 1^st, 2010 at 10:10pm:

I also understand that CO2 in the outer layer radiates heat away from us.

You'll need to explain what you mean by that. Do you have a url you can reference?

There are a number of overlapping effects in the outer atmosphere, but I'll leave that for another day. It's getting late.

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Grendel

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Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz...
Reply #58 - May 1^st, 2010 at 10:54pm

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/2867591.htm
Quote:

After 50 kilometres, the next layer is the mesosphere, and the temperature starts dropping again. By 85 kilometres, the top of the mesosphere is the coldest place on earth. The density of the upper atmosphere is so low that carbon dioxide actually radiates heat away into space, rather than trapping it.

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Paella Senior Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 290	Re: The atmosphere, warming, and all that jazz... Reply #59 - May 2^nd, 2010 at 12:50am Beo, you're losing this one really really badly. Give it away. It's starting to read like a snuff movie, and I'm also starting to feel sorry for you.
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