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Warmest Decade in Australia on Record (Read 8596 times)
Soren
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #30 - Jan 12th, 2010 at 2:32pm
 
Mozz, you are proceeding by analogy and resembance, like the medievals, and so did Muso with his analogy of inhaling toxins.
Medievals believed that walnuts were a cure for brain diseases due to - resemblance.

CO2 is a trace gas and it is certinly not the most significant greenhouse. We ARE inhaling the 384 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. ANd wild weather has always been with us.

What is the delay time between emitting a certain amount of CO2 and its noticable effect on the climate? I ask because despite my repeated request for evidence of causation or even correlation between climate variation and variations in CO2 concentration, I have not seen any. ANd to that I say - because there isn't any evidence. It is not possible to find it. Muso's forcing is not a satisfactory explanation
There is pleanty of conjecture, there is plenty of modelling based on conjecture (a.k.a. proving the faith) but there is no evidence that shows causation or even correlation.
I have seen evidence that warming precedes increased CO2, but not the other way round.


Go ahead, look at any AGW temperature graph and compare it with a graph of CO2 emissions by humans.


The Leninist mental reflexes and conspiratorial language is the most intemperate thing attributable to CO2

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Soren
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #31 - Jan 12th, 2010 at 2:59pm
 
muso wrote on Jan 12th, 2010 at 1:59pm:
Soren wrote on Jan 12th, 2010 at 1:26pm:
This just in:
Some brainiac professor now thinks it has been CFCs all along. That's scientific consensus for ya, what? In a peer-reviewed mag! WHat's the world coming to?




The effects of CFC's on global warming have been known for years. They make a minor contribution - that's all. CFC-12 for example, has a Global Warming potential of 11000, compared to CO2 = 1.

Fortunately the atmospheric concentration of CFC-12 is negligible. (To get the overall warming effect, you multiply the GWP by the concentration. )

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf

Yawn - Soren - go read what the paper says, not some bs on a denialist site that cherry picks the "interesting" bits.




What,  peer-reviewed Physics Reports ain't good enough no more? 

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muso
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #32 - Jan 17th, 2010 at 2:00pm
 
Soren wrote on Jan 12th, 2010 at 2:59pm:
What,  peer-reviewed Physics Reports ain't good enough no more?  



Tell you what  - read the original paper then you decide if the message in the paper is that the recent warming is all due to CFC's -

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TVP-4XVC4M5-1&_user=1...

It might be on every single denialist site on the blogosphere, but nowhere in the original paper does it actually say (and I paraphrase)  that "it wasn't CO2 - it was CFC's all along".

They didn't actually say that , soren. Good try but no cigar.

So let me get this right. What you're saying is that AGW is crap, but it's not crap as long as it's driven by CFC's, and if it is happening, it's good for us because of the fact that crops thrive in warm conditions and with excess CO2 (plant food). Does that just about sum up your position, Soren?  

Can't you see the mendacious and superficial nature of your argument (or the one that you're cutting and pasting).

OK once again, CFC-12 has a much greater GWP than CO2, but the overall effect is tiny because of its extremely low concentration (yes, even lower than that of CO2) - and you do know what GWP stands for because I've told you before.
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Soren
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #33 - Jan 17th, 2010 at 2:27pm
 
muso wrote on Jan 17th, 2010 at 2:00pm:
Soren wrote on Jan 12th, 2010 at 2:59pm:
What,  peer-reviewed Physics Reports ain't good enough no more?  



Tell you what  - read the original paper then you decide if the message in the paper is that the recent warming is all due to CFC's -

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TVP-4XVC4M5-1&_user=1...

It might be on every single denialist site on the blogosphere, but nowhere in the original paper does it actually say (and I paraphrase)  that "it wasn't CO2 - it was CFC's all along".

They didn't actually say that , soren. Good try but no cigar.

So let me get this right. What you're saying is that AGW is crap, but it's not crap as long as it's driven by CFC's, and if it is happening, it's good for us because of the fact that crops thrive in warm conditions and with excess CO2 (plant food). Does that just about sum up your position, Soren?  

Can't you see the mendacious and superficial nature of your argument (or the one that you're cutting and pasting).

OK once again, CFC-12 has a much greater GWP than CO2, but the overall effect is tiny because of its extremely low concentration (yes, even lower than that of CO2) - and you do know what GWP stands for because I've told you before.



It's the CFC that did it - that's just to show that the  science is settled  on CO2 induced antropomor... - no wait! what was the question again?

AGW - I don't buy the 'CO2 is to blame' hysteria. I am sceptical about our ability to change the climate in any way other than by an all out nuclear war.

Does climate change? Probably does it all the time.

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muso
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #34 - Jan 17th, 2010 at 2:48pm
 
Soren wrote on Jan 17th, 2010 at 2:27pm:
It's the CFC that did it - that's just to show that the  science is settled  on CO2 induced antropomor... - no wait! what was the question again?

AGW - I don't buy the 'CO2 is to blame' hysteria. I am sceptical about our ability to change the climate in any way other than by an all out nuclear war.

Does climate change? Probably does it all the time.



Soren, CFC's do have some global warming potential. No question about it. It's just that the dominant effect is due to CO2.

Of course if you don't accept that such a tiny fraction of CO2 could have any effect, then 'obviously' a hardly discernable fraction of CFC's, would not even be worth bringing up........unless of course it backs up your mantra, and then it becomes important beyond any other factor.

Soren's mantra:

Quote:
AGW - I don't buy the 'CO2 is to blame' hysteria. I am sceptical about our ability to change the climate in any way other than by an all out nuclear war.


This mantra is ok....as a religious, faith based mantra, but in the light of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, it becomes a little tired.

Lets face it, there is not a single scientific paper that supports your "AGW is crap" position.
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locutius
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #35 - Jan 18th, 2010 at 11:04am
 
Soren wrote on Jan 17th, 2010 at 2:27pm:
muso wrote on Jan 17th, 2010 at 2:00pm:
Soren wrote on Jan 12th, 2010 at 2:59pm:
What,  peer-reviewed Physics Reports ain't good enough no more?  



Tell you what  - read the original paper then you decide if the message in the paper is that the recent warming is all due to CFC's -

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TVP-4XVC4M5-1&_user=1...

It might be on every single denialist site on the blogosphere, but nowhere in the original paper does it actually say (and I paraphrase)  that "it wasn't CO2 - it was CFC's all along".

They didn't actually say that , soren. Good try but no cigar.

So let me get this right. What you're saying is that AGW is crap, but it's not crap as long as it's driven by CFC's, and if it is happening, it's good for us because of the fact that crops thrive in warm conditions and with excess CO2 (plant food). Does that just about sum up your position, Soren?  

Can't you see the mendacious and superficial nature of your argument (or the one that you're cutting and pasting).

OK once again, CFC-12 has a much greater GWP than CO2, but the overall effect is tiny because of its extremely low concentration (yes, even lower than that of CO2) - and you do know what GWP stands for because I've told you before.



It's the CFC that did it - that's just to show that the  science is settled  on CO2 induced antropomor... - no wait! what was the question again?

AGW - I don't buy the 'CO2 is to blame' hysteria. I am sceptical about our ability to change the climate in any way other than by an all out nuclear war.

Does climate change? Probably does it all the time.



Same as some people are "sceptical" about the dangers of 2nd hand smoke in all but incinerated corpses.

I think you misuse the word sceptical when you have a self confessed benchmark (total nuclear war) which remains defiant of the concerted peer examined efforts of 10's of thousands of scientists.

But I do agree that climate change does/has happened minus the human in the equation. Does not mean we can't/haven't influenced it. The concept of natural balance and natural checks are not Gianism (or  Cheesy Lennonist)
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I dream of a better tomorrow, where chickens can cross the road and not be questioned about their motives.
 
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muso
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #36 - Jan 21st, 2010 at 9:25am
 
The summary for the GISS (Global) data is now out. 2009 tied as the second warmest year since records started 130 years ago.

The warmest year was 2005.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100115_Temperature2009.pdf
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« Last Edit: Jan 21st, 2010 at 11:18am by muso »  

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Darwin
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #37 - Jan 22nd, 2010 at 4:35pm
 
When does the sun enter its more active stage? Been quiet for a while I believe, thus masking AGW to some extent.
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muso
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #38 - Jan 22nd, 2010 at 6:14pm
 
There are two separate issues - the ENSO cycle and the Solar cycle. They are not directly related. We are curretly in an El Nino and the Solar Cycle has passed the minimum. Sunspot numbers are starting to increase again.
I posted a graph showing actual and prohected sunspot numbers either on this thread or another one. I'll see if I can find it for you. (Reply 4 on this thread) The projected maximum is around 2013.
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Darwin
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #39 - Jan 22nd, 2010 at 6:30pm
 
So it will get hotter!

And, yeah, knew about the El Nino/La Nina thing.
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muso
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #40 - Jan 23rd, 2010 at 3:12pm
 
Abusive post removed to spare the poster embarrassment.  If you drink and post, please come back and remove it in the morning.
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muso
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Re: Warmest Decade in Australia on Record
Reply #41 - Jan 23rd, 2010 at 3:29pm
 
Soren wrote on Jan 12th, 2010 at 2:32pm:
I have seen evidence that warming precedes increased CO2, but not the other way round.



You still don't get it, do you? Nobody is saying this. It's a straw man.

Read reply 3 on the sticky thread. Read paragraph 3 carefully.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1247904929
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