Australian Politics Forum - Climate change is natural...

mantra

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #15 - Dec 9^th, 2009 at 9:02pm

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No doubt denialist liars will again claim we are cooling, but the facts will be that the global warming trend will be continuing, but with usual seasonal variability seeing some lower temps until the next record highs hit a few years after that.

I've forgotten his name - it's on one of the threads on this board - but the head scientist of the IPCC actually changed his mind about global warming being imminent and stated that we were in for a couple of decades of global cooling.

It's not that I don't believe in man made global warming, but the IPCC and associated organisations and scientists need to ensure their theories or "findings" have no holes in them.

We can't be sold something unless we're convinced it's essential. They have to get their facts right so that when questioned, they can provide feasible responses.

Atomic and nuclear bombs change the weather pattern, so you would assume heavy pollution has a similar affect, but a more important and immediate problem than lowering carbon emissions, is cleaning up the discarded filth and waste contaminating this consumer driven planet and its seas.

Fuel industries might emit unsafe levels of CO2 - but the bi products are even worse ie contaminated water basins, dams and rivers, toxic dam tailings, iron ore dust, oil spills etc. Nothing is going to be done about their waste or careless destruction.

Some of the industries listed might not have high emissions, but the collateral damage in production is far worse.

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muso

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #16 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 8:01am

mantra wrote on Dec 9^th, 2009 at 7:25pm:

I'm not familiar with Carter, but he has made a valid point. The IPCC has really stuffed up lately - not only in reversal of certain predictions, but they are generally being careless. Just some errors picked up this year and there have been plenty since the IPCC officially released its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 - the word on the science behind global warming.

Mantra,

I would be more concerned about somebody who did not publish corrections and amendments. It's normal in any branch of science to acknowledge modifications and minor changes. The objective is to get the information as robust as possible.

Have you seen Ian Plimer publish a list of corrections to "Heaven and Earth"? Do you think he's likely to issue a reprint with all the corrections applied? Don't hold your breath. He's really not interested in the truth. He just wants to spread confusion.

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mozzaok

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #17 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 8:03am

Spot on Mantra, we must not concentrate on Global Warming to the exclusion of all other major pollution issues, and that is another reason why we need to put this ridiculous, blogosphere driven, Denialim Campaign, behind us.
The science is settled, there is scientific concensus, no serious respected or reputable scientist denies it, and no studies support the ridiculous Denialist claims.
All their arguments have been comprehensively deconstructed, and absolutely refuted by scientists who would rather being doing constructive work than needing to waste time refuting an industry instigated campaign to promote confusion, and to continue to cause the type of delays that we have seen so far.

Once we finally put Denialist folly behind us, then hopefully scientists will not have to waste their valuable time correcting lies sponsored by major polluters who do not want to change their ways, and we can see other pressing environmental issues receive the attention they deserve.

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muso

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #18 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 8:23am

mantra wrote on Dec 9^th, 2009 at 9:02pm:

I've forgotten his name - it's on one of the threads on this board - but the head scientist of the IPCC actually changed his mind about global warming being imminent and stated that we were in for a couple of decades of global cooling.

Professor Latif, but if you read what he actually said, it was nothing what you wrote. He is by no means a climate denialist.

I like this You-Tube series, because Peter Sinclair aka greenman3610 is an extremely good communicator.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khikoh3sJg8&feature=sub

Please watch and be elucidated.

Quote:

It's not that I don't believe in man made global warming, but the IPCC and associated organisations and scientists need to ensure their theories or "findings" have no holes in them.

There are always going to be 'holes' in any branch of knowledge, Mantra. There are still some things we don't understand about the effects of radiation on the human body, yet we can still use it to treat cancer. There are some things we know extremely well and there are some things where there is more uncertainty. At this stage, on the question of Global Warming, the certainty is over 99%. It's pretty well certain. Colonel Mustard has practically been caught in the conservatory with a knife in his hand, and blood on his hands, stabbing the victim in the chest"

Quote:

We can't be sold something unless we're convinced it's essential. They have to get their facts right so that when questioned, they can provide feasible responses.

We're long past that stage. The Great Barrier Reef is a goner. They are talking about a +2 degree guard rail, based on risk assessment. If we can limit CO2 to under 500 ppm, let alone 450, it will be an amazing feat.

Quote:

Atomic and nuclear bombs change the weather pattern, so you would assume heavy pollution has a similar affect, but a more important and immediate problem than lowering carbon emissions, is cleaning up the discarded filth and waste contaminating this consumer driven planet and its seas.

While it's important, it's more important to reduce carbon emissions because if Ocean pH's continue to fall, the seas will be a stinking mass of uninhabitable marine desert.

Quote:

Fuel industries might emit unsafe levels of CO2 - but the bi products are even worse ie contaminated water basins, dams and rivers, toxic dam tailings, iron ore dust, oil spills etc. Nothing is going to be done about their waste or careless destruction.

A lot of work continues to be done in that area. It's by no means perfect, but industries are a lot more accountable now than they ever were. Take it from me, I'm just preparing for a huge audit in 2010. All other industries are getting the same deal.

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skippy

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #19 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 8:48am

[quote][They lie that the earth is cooling, yet 11 of the last 14 years, were the hottest ever recorded, since instrumental temperature recording began, 150 years ago.\

Now because 1998 was the hottest year ever, that fact that each year since then has not increased in temperature, has these liars going around saying that the earth is cooling, and it just is not so./quote]

Mozz is right, the confusionalists say the world has been cooling for the last ten years, LIE. In fact the last ten years are the hottest ten years since records began, FACT. In fact this year as of yesterday is the third hottest year on record,FACT.

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Climate change is natural... Reply #20 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 10:26am An animated journey through the Earth's climate History: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2009/copenhagen/8386319.stm Worth Watching.
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Tom

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #21 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 11:32am

1998 hottest year ever, ice caps melting? Watch less tv please.

"The decade 2000-2009 is very likely to be the warmest on record,” WMO secretary general Michel Jarraud.

Here below is the real graph of the temperature data in recent history and the real highest temperatures over the centuries.

And how you can keep spewing out the same lies like this mozzoak and muso and still be a moderator baffles me. 31, 000 scientists with 9000 PHD's who know that global warming is a conspiracy on the other side at the UN only the 2,500 bureaucrats.

Their side hasn't been deconstructed nor even barely debated by anyone. I don't know where you get these ideas from but it does worry me that you'll keep telling people these lies.

There has been no debating because the warmists attitude has been your own, 'the debate is over, the science is settled'. That is utterely ridiculous and is a lie. I applaud Grendel for repeatedly slamming you and your religious gullable followers but it doesn't seem to have much use.

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« Last Edit: Dec 10^th, 2009 at 11:46am by Tom »

UAH_LgT_1979_thru_Nov_09_thumb.jpg (44 KB | 45 )

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Tom New Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 30	Re: Climate change is natural... Reply #22 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 11:34am Graph...
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Sprintcyclist

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #23 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 11:44am

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Greenhouse Effect

The greenhouse effect affects the inner planets temperatures, through the atmospheric absorption of the heat emitted by the surface and its re-radiation back to the ground. This effect makes the temperature increase 5 ºK (1 ºK = 1 ºC) on Mars, 35 ºK on Earth and 500 ºK on Venus.

The main actors of the greenhouse effect are the carbon dioxide (on Venus, Earth and Mars), the water vapour (on Venus and Earth), sulphur dioxide and sulphur acid clouds (Venus), the water clouds (Earth) and the suspended dust particles (Mars). However, the dust and sulphur acid particles tend to heat the atmosphere around them but to cool the lower atmospheric layers, due to the absorption of the solar light.

http://brattahlid.tripod.com/sw3-62web.htm

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Modern Classic Right Wing

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mozzaok Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 6741 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Climate change is natural... Reply #24 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 12:23pm I love that second graph you supplied Tom, would you care to reveal it's source? I would love to put it in with this years Christmas Crackers, they are the usual resting ground for stale jokes.
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Tom New Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 30	Re: Climate change is natural... Reply #25 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 12:55pm This graph appears in many internet sources. http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/02/11/a-2000-year-global-temperature-record/ You can see the obvious Medieval warming period in which global temperatures were above those of now.
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muso

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #26 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 2:14pm

Tom wrote on Dec 10^th, 2009 at 11:32am:

"The decade 2000-2009 is very likely to be the warmest on record,” WMO secretary general Michel Jarraud.

Correct. This is pretty good evidence that the recent years have been consistently hotter than previous - We've been trying to tell you this - and your point?

Quote:

Here below is the real graph of the temperature data in recent history and the real highest temperatures over the centuries.

No it isn't LOL Grin

We just don't have such a thing. Instrumental readings are fairly recent. (Listen mate - Is this a joke, or are you trying to be serious)

As for the more recent one, give me a break! What good are 13 month running averages. You need at least 15 year running averages for climate. Grin

Quote:

And how you can keep spewing out the same lies like this mozzoak and muso and still be a moderator baffles me. 31, 000 scientists with 9000 PHD's who know that global warming is a conspiracy on the other side at the UN only the 2,500 bureaucrats.

LOL - Are you the comic relief?

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« Last Edit: Dec 10^th, 2009 at 2:31pm by muso »

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muso

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #27 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 2:19pm

Tom wrote on Dec 10^th, 2009 at 12:55pm:

This graph appears in many internet sources.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/02/11/a-2000-year-global-temperature-record/

You can see the obvious Medieval warming period in which global temperatures were above those of now.

Sigh - Energy and Environment is not a reputable Science journal. It's a political paper. It doesn't appear on the ISI Listing for Scientific Journals noplace no-how. The papers are irrelevant.
http://science.thomsonreuters.com/cgi-bin/jrnlst/jloptions.cgi?PC=master

Here is the real graph based on peer reviewed science. Note the divergence of the various proxy studies in older studies? That's because they are proxy studies based on things like tree rings.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

You can find the sources of the data on that page.

For the umpteenth time, it was a local phenomenon. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) or Medieval Climate Optimum was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region, lasting from about AD 800–1300.

Even for some miraculous reason it were warmer than today and if it were global and not local, this information would be irrelevant anyway. Solar output has varied significantly in the past. No argument.

It's the rate of change in greenhouse gases and the impending rate in change in temperature that is extremely unusual, not the actual global average temperatures.

All we have for the medieval period is a set of proxies.

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« Last Edit: Dec 10^th, 2009 at 2:30pm by muso »

2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png (38 KB | 46 )

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Tom

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #28 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 2:33pm

Are you kidding?

"Now because 1998 was the hottest year ever, that fact that each year since then has not increased in temperature, has these liars going around saying that the earth is cooling, and it just is not so./quote]"

Many news websites and and newsletters/papers are saying the same thing. And that this decade is the hottest of all time.

The temperature has risen in recent years but there is 0, no way to and hasn't been proved to be in any way related to CO2 in the atmosphere. Rises in temperature have been proven to rise before CO2 rises, obviously showing that the process is natural.

I don't know how many times I have to say it, I don't know how many times you're going to say it. Conflicting arguments against the global warming religion have no standing. The vast majority of legitimate scientists and climatologists are against it.

The 30 year graph shows plainly that the temperature has risen very little and that this should normally just be seen as a natural process.

As for the second graph:
There are dozens of very interesting ways to peer into the climatic past of a location, and Loehle included borehore temperature measurements, pollen remains, Mg/Ca ratios, oxygen isotope data from deep cores or from stalagmites, diatoms deposited on lake bottoms, reconstructed sea surface temperatures, and so on.

Are you going to deny the legitimacy of the graphs?

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Tom

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Re: Climate change is natural...
Reply #29 - Dec 10^th, 2009 at 2:40pm

SO, you are going to deny dozens of other sources but listen to wikipedia. Okay... Not only is wikipedia changable by anyone at any time and I find it laughable that you are relying on wikipedia as a source, but the government has been known to change wikipedia articles all the time. I think Wikipedia can be called political papers.

If the temperature is really that warm then why are the ice caps actually growing in the North Atlantic? How can you relate the current climate to CO2 and not to solar activity?

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