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Why is this statement true, but irrelevant? (Read 32362 times)
Darwin
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #120 - Nov 22nd, 2009 at 5:43pm
 
God, the denialists here are really excited aren't they? someone hacked the email server at Uni of East Anglia and posted the emails. Denialists and cherry-pickers like Andrew Dolt republished some of those. All this is supposed to prove AGW isn't happening (tho dolts like Andrew Dolt, LOW_IQ and Deepshit have no real idea what the emails say. Hey, if Dolt publishes it it must be true, not?)

So, no AGW (BTW, which of the published emails say this?????) why was it so bloody HOT here in SA the past week? Why is NSW suffering bushfires and 41C temperatures?

Nothing from any of the emails illegally obtained (hacked) and published show any doubt about AGW, or proof they are falsifying data or are in the pay of anyone to publish AGW data etc etc.

But the great unwashed like LOW_IQ and his bum mate Deepshit of course take Andrew Bolt's words as gospel. So the heat SA suffered is imaginary? Don't think so: I suffered through that record spring heatwave.

The timing of the hacking and publishing of these private emails is obviously meant to derail Copenhagen. My great fear is that they may have been succesful.
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muso
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #121 - Nov 22nd, 2009 at 5:52pm
 
I'm sure that we'll get more nonsense as we get closer to the Copenhagen conference.

The Hadcrut project is a collaboration between the University of East Anglia's CRU and the UK Met Office. It's not the most representative of data sets, since it doesn't include as much Polar data as NASA's GISS.
I'm sure the truth will come out in the wash, but the unofficial version will stay in circulation, much like the myth of the 'Hockey Stick'. Grin
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Darwin
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #122 - Nov 22nd, 2009 at 5:55pm
 
There are some I would like to take a hocky stick to!
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Darwin
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #123 - Nov 22nd, 2009 at 5:57pm
 
BTW I might be posting a bit more here: Aussie has made the PA attached to this site a sanitised playpen no adult wants to play in. Freediver unfortunately doesn't give a stuff.
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pjb05
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #124 - Nov 22nd, 2009 at 6:14pm
 
Darwin wrote on Nov 22nd, 2009 at 5:43pm:
So, no AGW (BTW, which of the published emails say this?????) why was it so bloody HOT here in SA the past week? Why is NSW suffering bushfires and 41C temperatures?



You can't have it both ways Darwin.  Skeptics (or as you prefer 'denialists) get chided if they mention the weather in the context of global warming.

PS bushfires and 40 deg plus heatwaves aren't anything unusual in NSW this time of year.
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Darwin
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #125 - Nov 22nd, 2009 at 7:22pm
 
It IS unusual in SA.

I was just pointing out the idiocy of saying the hacked emails said there was no AGW.

Re the heatwaves, in SA we have had so many in the last 3 years (both spring and fall) that it is a 1 in 200,000 chance that these were not caused by some agency--the only agency being AGW.

I will keep an anxious eye on my 88yo mother this summer, max temperatures in Adelaide, 48.5C last year--another record--will likely exceed 50C. I predict that about 2000 elderly people in SA & Vic will die from the record high summer temperature. Do you have any elderly relatives? If you do, any harm in making sure they will be OK at the height of summer heat? Not only AGW you know: the sun is entering a more active state and the Pacific is warm both on the Aust side AND the S American side.
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« Last Edit: Nov 23rd, 2009 at 5:24pm by Darwin »  
 
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #126 - Nov 22nd, 2009 at 7:36pm
 
Darwin wrote on Nov 22nd, 2009 at 7:22pm:
It IS unusual in SA.

I was just pointing out the idiocy of saying the hacked emails said there was no AGW.

Re the heatwaves, in SA we have had so many in the last 3 years (both spring and fall) that it is a 1 in 200,000 chance that these were not caused by some agency--the only agency being AGW.

I will keep an anxious eye on my 88yo mother this summer, max temperatures in Adelaide, 58.5C last year--another record--will likely exceed 50C. I predict that about 2000 elderly people in SA & Vic will die from the record high summer temperature. Do you have any elderly relatives? If you do, any harm in making sure they will be OK at the height of summer heat? Not only AGW you know: the sun is entering a more active state and the Pacific is warm both on the Aust side AND the S American side.


I think it is being suggested that the hacked emails show references to manipulating data and peer review and other unsavory behaviour. Also i think you will find the hottest temperature for Adelaide was 12 January 1939, 46.1 °C.

PS people die from the cold too.
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« Last Edit: Nov 22nd, 2009 at 7:51pm by pjb05 »  
 
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Soren
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #127 - Nov 22nd, 2009 at 9:38pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 22nd, 2009 at 12:50pm:
Soren wrote on Nov 22nd, 2009 at 12:05pm:
Remind me where this anthropogenic signature is.


I'm talking about a clear causality based on:

1. The undeniable fact that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas whose specific absorbance (for want of a better term) at infrared wavelengths, can be measured quite accurately and compared to other greenhouse gases.

2. The fact that energy is conserved, and that the net longwave radiation over time can be demonstrated to be decreasing as confirmation of the increasing radiative forcing of specific greenhouse gases, and that the major effect is due to carbon dioxide.

3. The undeniable fact that anthropogenic activities currently emit  approximately 8 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere every year, and that this value has been increasing almost every year.

4. The undeniable fact that the increased mass of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has an isotope ratio indicatve of fossil fuel origins.  

5. The undeniable fact that ocean acidification is rising as a result of increased dissolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Is that succinct enough for you?



1. CO2 is a greenhouse gas and its qualities of absorbing infrared (longwave) wavelengths are measurable (it is not mentioned that this absorbtive quality is logarithmic - most of the absorbtion is done by the normal CO2 levels, doubling the CO2 does not double the absorbtion.)
2. Energy is conserved - and the rest is an assumption. The elision has to do with what is elided in 1.
3. a measurement
4. another measurement
5. a declaration that the change in oceanic pH is due to 1-4. 



A fair summary?




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mozzaok
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #128 - Nov 23rd, 2009 at 7:42am
 
Soren, did you read the link with the correspondence between Monbiot and Plimer?
Did you also read the links that showed a climate scientists responses to Plimer's questions to Monbiot?
Did you agree, or disagree with the thrust of the whole exchange, which portrayed Plimer as deceptive, evasive, and craven?

I obviously drew those conclusions, from my reading of it, but I really am interested to see the view that someone who thinks Plimer is a champion of impartial, independent science, who stands up to IPCC bullies, would make of this particular little episode????

I will repeat the link in case you missed it.
[url]http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2009/09/14/correspondence-with-ian-plimer//url]

I also would question why you think just replying that something is measured, is supposed to taken as therefore inherently flawed, as you seem to do in your last response to muso.
If you consider a particular set of figures wrong, then an explanation why, or a link to a study which offers "measurements" you consider accurate, would probably strengthen your position.
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muso
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #129 - Nov 23rd, 2009 at 7:51am
 
pjb05 wrote on Nov 22nd, 2009 at 6:14pm:
You can't have it both ways Darwin.  Skeptics (or as you prefer 'denialists) get chided if they mention the weather in the context of global warming.




Correct. You can only go by long term trends. No climate scientist will say that the current heatwave in the Southern States is due to global warming. It's impossible to do so.
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muso
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #130 - Nov 23rd, 2009 at 8:16am
 
Quote:
1. CO2 is a greenhouse gas and its qualities of absorbing infrared (longwave) wavelengths are measurable (it is not mentioned that this absorbtive quality is logarithmic - most of the absorption is done by the normal CO2 levels, doubling the CO2 does not double the absorbtion.)


Correct - otherwise no amount of mitigation would help. I've already spoken about the so called 'tiny proportion= tiny effect' fallacy in my example with SF6. Nobody is hiding the fact that it's logarithmic. In fact climate sensitivity is expressed in terms of doubling of CO2.

Quote:
2. Energy is conserved - and the rest is an assumption. The elision has to do with what is elided in 1.


The rest is not an assumption. We know which IR absorption bands are related to CO2 through direct  measurement. (hence the importance of point 1) The reduction in longwave radiation is a measurement that confirms what we know about CO2 and radiative forcing, and puts a value on it. It provides a means of verifying the mechanism and an independant means of measurement..

Quote:
3. a measurement

Correct. That's significant. It's not just a speculation. It's a measurement, and together with 4, it confirms that carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases to some extent) are increasing.

Quote:
4. another measurement

Not just another measurement - a very important measurement of  the atmospheric abundances of the 13C isotope (Francey and Farquhar, 1982) and molecular oxygen (O2) (Keeling and Shertz, 1992; Bender et al., 1996). That's the real human signature.

Quote:
5. a declaration that the change in oceanic pH is due to 1-4.  


It's not a declaration. It's a conclusion that comes across as a consequence of a very fundamental law of physics (Henry's Law) The solubility of a gas in a liquid depends on temperature, the partial pressure of the gas over the liquid, the nature of the solvent and the nature of the gas.

The reduction in ocean pH can be clearly demonstrated to be due to the increase in atmospheric CO2. We can carry out very basic analyses on the sea water , such as total carbon, or determination of carbonate and bicarbonates using ion chromatography. Nothing airy fairy about this. It's very basic chemistry.

Quote:
A fair summary?


Now that I've tidied it up, yes it's a fair summary. It clearly shows that the effect is confirmed by direct measurement, based on the laws of physics and chemistry. This is a knowledge base that is quite fundamental. We can use our knowledge of science to build computers and TV's and to synthesise medicinal drugs among other things.  

You trivialise measurements, but it only through such things as direct measurement that we can confirm that this is a very real effect.

Maybe now, you'll begin to grasp that this effect has some very basic science to back it up, and you'll understand some of my frustrations in dealing with people who don't understand/ don't want to understand.

Even if it hasn't clicked yet, I still congratulate you for attempting to see it from where I stand. It's more than others have done.

So far, we've only grazed the surface of this subject. At least I haven't had to explain how preserved bubbles of atmosphere in the polar ice sheets can be used to assess paleoclimate, but I'm prepared to talk about that if required.
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« Last Edit: Nov 23rd, 2009 at 10:31am by muso »  

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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #131 - Nov 23rd, 2009 at 10:15am
 
mozzaok wrote on Nov 22nd, 2009 at 1:20pm:
I cannot comprehend how anybody could look at all the emails, and subsequent links, and have any confidence at all in Ian Plimers integrity as a scientific contributor of value to this issue.


I can't understand how he can even function as a scientist to be quite frank. He lacks the necessary honesty.

Quote:
Plimer’s claim that the human influence on climate can be ignored, relative to natural variations, seems to rest on three main strands of argument:

a: the extent of natural variability is larger than considered in ‘mainstream’ analyses;
b: changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gases have less effect than determined in
‘mainstream’ analyses;
c: the IPCC uses a range of misrepresentations to conceal points a and b.

Among the many errors made in attempting to establish these claims, are cases where Plimer:

►misrepresents the content of IPCC reports on at least 15 occasions as well as misrepresenting
the operation of the IPCC and the authorship of IPCC reports;
►has at least 28 other instances of misrepresenting the content of cited sources;
►has at least 2 graphs where checks show that the original is a plot of something other than
what Plimer claims and many others where data are misrepresented;
►has at least 10 cases of misrepresenting data records in addition to some instances (included
in the total above) of misrepresenting data from cited source.


Read through the comedy of errors in the linked pdf below. That's 35 pages describing errors in 'Heaven and Earth'.

http://www.complex.org.au/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=91
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« Last Edit: Nov 23rd, 2009 at 10:26am by muso »  

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Soren
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #132 - Nov 23rd, 2009 at 11:15am
 
Re 5 points:
Muso offered 2 statements, followed by 2 measurements and another statement about oceanic pH.
They do not add up to a demonstration of AGW, whether in its original form, in my summary or Muso's 'cleaned up' version of my summary.

Plimer and Monbiot - I scanned the pages, I did not check the links.
There was to be depate at The Spectator. The place and time were settled, the event was advertoised.

Then Monbiot asked Plimer to answer some questions before the debate. I stress that this was AFTER the debate was booked. All concerned immediately saw through Monbiot's move as a way of trying to get out of it.
Plimer, obviously miffed, and unwilling to be so blatantly snookered, countered with his own questions.
Monbiot declared himself unqualified to answer them (but not unqualified to discuss the whole AGW issue, obviously).
WHen Plimer was not forthcoming with the answers, Monbiot triumphantly declared him a chicken and congratulated himself on his own cleverness by wriggling out of a debate while blaming his opponent whom, it appears to me, he was afraid to face on a debating podium.



Re Plimer's errors as detailed by http://www.complex.org.au/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=91
I only sampled this effort and read the couple of references to Plimer's treatmeant of the medieval warming. To my mind, the compiler has not made any dent on Plimer's claims that the medieval warming period was warmer than the present and that it was obviously unrelated to human emissions of CO2. As these points are not refuted by the compiler, I am not sure what he is on about.  WIth that in mind, I am sceptical (!!) about the rest of this document.
If it warms your hearts, I haven't read Plimer's book either. And I am not planning to, either.


The emerging news overataking us is the hacked emails in England. I have not looked into this beyond the headlines and what the ex-Chancellor has said in The Times:


Copenhagen will fail – and quite right too

Astonishingly, what appears, at least at first blush, to have emerged is that (a) the scientists have been manipulating the raw temperature figures to show a relentlessly rising global warming trend; (b) they have consistently refused outsiders access to the raw data; (c) the scientists have been trying to avoid freedom of information requests; and (d) they have been discussing ways to prevent papers by dissenting scientists being published in learned journals.

There may be a perfectly innocent explanation. But what is clear is that the integrity of the scientific evidence on which not merely the British Government, but other countries, too, through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, claim to base far-reaching and hugely expensive policy decisions, has been called into question. And the reputation of British science has been seriously tarnished. A high-level independent inquiry must be set up without delay.

It is against all this background that I am announcing today the launch of a new high-powered all-party (and non-party) think-tank, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (www.thegwpf.org), which I hope may mark a turning-point in the political and public debate on the important issue of global warming policy. At the very least, open and reasoned debate on this issue cannot be anything but healthy. The absence of debate between political parties at the present time makes our contribution all the more necessary.



Scepticism has its place and uses. It's good, don't knock it, boys.



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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #133 - Nov 23rd, 2009 at 11:41am
 
Well soren, you have taken a pretty intransigent stance it seems, the interpretation you put on the Plimer/ Monbiot exchange would be a stretch for any unbiased person to make, especially without even reading the linked to responses to Plimers questions, which were pretty well exposed as a scientifically verbose attempt at distraction, while Monbiots questions were, as he stated, direct references to actual "errors" and "deceptions", contained in Plimer's book, "Heaven & Earth", which he wished to have addressed in the debate, and because of the scientific nature of defending his claims, and the position of other scientists debunking them, a pre debate exchange on those salient points, would be critical to a fair debate being possible.
Seeing Plimer's return questions and the nonsensical rubbish that many of them were(as was explained in the link you chose not to read) actually supports Monbiot's desire to have the critical scientific issues dealt with before the debate.
If this had been done, then both the pro, and anti arguments could not be merely deluged with a pretentious stream of incoherent scientific gobbledy gook on the day, as was Monbiot's concern, and a particularly valid one I may add in light of Plimer's ridiculous response questions.

To put it in lay terms, he was trying to avoid the old "bullshit baffles brains" tactics that are so often applied when people are trying to defend the indefensible.

As long as you stick your head in the sand and refuse to even examine the evidence of Plimer's incredibly inept attempts at creating an alternate theory for Global warming, then you do yourself the disservice of pinning your hopes of having your beliefs validated, on the extremely shaky ground of the credibility of a man who is clearly being denounced on scientific grounds, by the wider scienctific community.

If these emails that you refer to, are not thoroughly investigated, and any details of any or all misrepresentation of any meaningful data is not absolutely addressed by the scientific community, then they will be guilty of what I accuse the denialists of doing, and that is wilfully ignoring the evidence before them, but I do not expect that will be the case, because real scientists have more integrity than some less honest people who would do that. Wink
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Re: Why is this statement true, but irrelevant?
Reply #134 - Nov 23rd, 2009 at 11:50am
 
OK. Here is the information I have so far on the so called CRU hack:

The hack had absolutely nothing to do with the Hadley Centre which deals with temperature records, so any alleged tampering with temperature records is a non starter. Here's the Real Climate take on this:

Quote:
Phil Jones in discussing the presentation of temperature reconstructions stated that “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.” The paper in question is the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) Nature paper on the original multiproxy temperature reconstruction, and the ‘trick’ is just to plot the instrumental records along with reconstruction so that the context of the recent warming is clear. Scientists often use the term “trick” to refer to a “a good way to deal with a problem”, rather than something that is “secret”....


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/

So adding in a plot of real temperatures to a graph of multi proxy temperatures is basically just making a graph to show how actual temperatures compare to those derived from proxies on the same graph. Nothing wrong with that.

It related to correspondance between the Real Climate site, which is basically just a public communication site, and the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University.

There was no plot to falsify data. No demonstration that AGW was false. It was just a publicity stunt that was organised prior to the Copenhagen Conference to attempt to show researchers in a poor light.  

It's a storm in a tea cup.

Copenhagen will fail? It has absolutely nothing to do with Copenhagen. It was about presenting a graph for the Real Climate web site.  Grin


Quote:
As for the ‘decline’, it is well known that Keith Briffa’s maximum latewood tree ring density proxy diverges from the temperature records after 1960 (this is more commonly known as the “divergence problem”–see e.g. the recent discussion in this paper) and has been discussed in the literature since Briffa et al in Nature in 1998 (Nature, 391, 678-682). Those authors have always recommended not using the post 1960 part of their reconstruction, and so while ‘hiding’ is probably a poor choice of words (since it is ‘hidden’ in plain sight), not using the data in the plot is completely appropriate, as is further research to understand why this happens.
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