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Climate Change Discussion and Questions (Read 37761 times)
Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #75 - Nov 1st, 2009 at 11:18am
 
muso wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 9:17am:
pjb05 wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 7:50am:
It smacks of another agenda to want to shift 'blame' onto so called profit hungry big business.


Your post smacks of an agenda to shift from the scary science and get back to nice comfortable politics.

Most businesses are not concerned about 2050. The longest term detailed planning is 10 years or maybe 15 years.

What is, in fact an extremely urgent issue is being treated as a minor inconvenience that we'll probably get round to fixing one day.

Australia is in a dilemma as a major coal producer and with an enormous reliance on coal fired power stations.

To be blunt, coal production must stop - not just eventually. It needs to be phased out within the next 15 years. We need to be spending enormous amounts of capital in decarbonising the economy. It needs to be done in conjunction with other coal producing countries.

I've already talked about the risks of not doing that. It's in the Copenhagen sythesis report.

Will it affect jobs, and the economy? You bet it will. Big time.

If we do nothing about it, will it affect jobs and the economy worse?

Is the Pope Catholic? What the bugger do you think we've been saying all along?


Let me give you an analogy. You're on a sinking ship and you need to get to the lifeboat. The deck around it is under 6 inches of water.

What would you do? Bitch and whine that if we have to get in the lifeboat, we'll get our feet wet and die of hypothermia, and we'd be safer standing on the dry part of the ship?



The boat is not sinking. In fact there is no boat. It's all hysterical nonsense. And so it must be skewerd and ridiculed mercilessly, at every turn.

Sir David King condemns green scaremongering; Herod condemns child abuse; Osama Bin Laden condemns Islamist terrorism; etc

By James Delingpole Politics Last updated: October 31st, 2009

Professor Sir David King – Tony Blair’s former chief scientific advisor and foot-and-mouth massacre guru – has spoken out against climate change alarmism. He has told the Times:

“When people overstate happenings that aren’t necessarily climate change-related, or set up as almost certainties things that are difficult to establish scientifically, it distracts from the science we do understand. The danger is they can be accused of scaremongering. Also, we can all become described as kind of left-wing greens.”

Presumably he is no relation of the Sir David King who claimed in January 2004 in Science magazine that climate change is “the most severe problem we are facing today” and “a far greater threat to the world than international terrorism.” (Hat tip: Benny Peiser)

Nor of the Sir David King who was reported thus in May 2004:

"Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming remains unchecked, the government’s chief scientist, Professor Sir David King said last week. He said the Earth was entering the ‘first hot period’ for 60 million years when there was no ice on the plane and “the rest of the globe could not sustain human life”.

Nor of the Sir David King who made the following claim as recently as June 2008:

"If all the ice on Greenland were to melt, sea level would rise by seven metres. Is that likely to happen? Well I was saying six years ago unlikely [but] I’m afraid that that’s having to be revised… 80 percent of our human population lives within less than a one metre rise of sea level so imagine the destabilisation of our geopolitical system with a sea level rise of the order of one or two metres. And that is on the cards I’m afraid."

Nor, one hopes, is he any relation of the Sir David King who led the British delegation to a science conference in Moscow in 2004, whose performance prompted the following disgusted after-action report by the conference chairman Alexander Illarionov:

“In our opinion the reputation of British science, the reputation of the British government and the reputation of the title “Sir” has sustained heavy damage.”

If I were sensible, moderate Professor Sir David King I would have stern words with this soundalike character: otherwise some people might be in danger of mistaking him for an hysterical fool.



Antropogenic Global Warmists are humourless, po-faced drones.

Except you, Muso, of course. Smiley

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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #76 - Nov 1st, 2009 at 11:43am
 
Soren wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 11:18am:


The boat is not sinking. In fact there is no boat. It's all hysterical nonsense.



Don't you understand the word "analogy"?  

Quote:
“When people overstate happenings that aren’t necessarily climate change-related, or set up as almost certainties things that are difficult to establish scientifically, it distracts from the science we do understand. The danger is they can be accused of scaremongering. Also, we can all become described as kind of left-wing greens


Some of the things that we read in newspapers is totally off-the wall alarmism. I've read just as much nonsense written overstating what Climate change means as I have seen nonsense denying that it exists -  OR that it will be beneficial.

I can understand that David King would make such a remark, because some of the things that are being said by deep green environmentalists are totally inaccurate.

However, he has not changed his mind on the fact that it's by far the major issue this century.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #77 - Nov 1st, 2009 at 3:31pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 11:43am:
Soren wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 11:18am:


The boat is not sinking. In fact there is no boat. It's all hysterical nonsense.



Don't you understand the word "analogy"?  

Quote:
“When people overstate happenings that aren’t necessarily climate change-related, or set up as almost certainties things that are difficult to establish scientifically, it distracts from the science we do understand. The danger is they can be accused of scaremongering. Also, we can all become described as kind of left-wing greens


Some of the things that we read in newspapers is totally off-the wall alarmism. I've read just as much nonsense written overstating what Climate change means as I have seen nonsense denying that it exists -  OR that it will be beneficial.

I can understand that David King would make such a remark, because some of the things that are being said by deep green environmentalists are totally inaccurate.

However, he has not changed his mind on the fact that it's by far the major issue this century.



"there is no boat" is also an analogy.

Warmists can't agre among themselves. The ideas, the data, the interpretations, the gloom-doom, the 'well all be rooned' stuff is all over the place.
The one thing they all agree on is that anyone who does not quite agree with them is lying, is possessed by the devil or is the devil.

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #78 - Nov 1st, 2009 at 4:25pm
 
As I said to Grendel once before, you include in that category of 'Warmists' by implication every scientific body of National Standing in the world, and organisations such as the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology - basically the entire scientific establishment.

If your 'warmists' were just a group of tree-hugging hippies, perhaps your point might look less ludicrous and quixotic. Like Grendel you bring up the usual strawmen, like Al Gore. Of course, we all know that it's all a plot hatched by Al Gore to fund his Solar power industry Grin

And that's as ridiculous as blaming bad news on the Channel 7 Newsreader.  
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #79 - Nov 1st, 2009 at 4:50pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 4:25pm:
As I said to Grendel once before, you include in that category of 'Warmists' by implication every scientific body of National Standing in the world, and organisations such as the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology - basically the entire scientific establishment.

If your 'warmists' were just a group of tree-hugging hippies, perhaps your point might look less ludicrous and quixotic. Like Grendel you bring up the usual strawmen, like Al Gore. Of course, we all know that it's all a plot hatched by Al Gore to fund his Solar power industry Grin

And that's as ridiculous as blaming bad news on the Channel 7 Newsreader.  


I think you will find it is the leadership of these scientific bodies and not every scientist that is endorsing AGW. Plus they are scientists and not Gods and can be just as fallible and prone to political influence as the rest of us. Your are trying to create an aura of certanty on this issue which I don't think exists. 
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #80 - Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:00pm
 
It's every single scientist apart from a few cranks.

It's very difficult to overlook the elephant in the room. 305 billion tonnes of carbon (GtC) have been emitted since the 18th century, nearly 42% of the total atmospheric inventory of 750 GtC, which has pushed CO2 levels to 387 ppm this year, 38% higher than the maximum of 280 ppm of the last 2.8 million years of glacial-interglacial Earth history.

No matter what you do, you can't hide that fact.
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #81 - Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:29pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:00pm:
It's every single scientist apart from a few cranks.



No wonder Soren described the language of warmists, for want of a better word, as Leninistic. Anyone who doesn't tow the line is a crank, in the pay of big business etc.  Stalin used similar methods when he was battling for supremacy, using the Trotskyism label for his opponents - making them a permanent herssy by definition.  
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #82 - Nov 1st, 2009 at 7:02pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:00pm:
It's every single scientist apart from a few cranks.

It's very difficult to overlook the elephant in the room. 305 billion tonnes of carbon (GtC) have been emitted since the 18th century, nearly 42% of the total atmospheric inventory of 750 GtC, which has pushed CO2 levels to 387 ppm this year, 38% higher than the maximum of 280 ppm of the last 2.8 million years of glacial-interglacial Earth history.

No matter what you do, you can't hide that fact.


From 280 particles per million to 387 particles per million.

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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #83 - Nov 2nd, 2009 at 7:59am
 
pjb05 wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:29pm:
muso wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:00pm:
It's every single scientist apart from a few cranks.



No wonder Soren described the language of warmists, for want of a better word, as Leninistic. Anyone who doesn't tow the line is a crank, in the pay of big business etc.  Stalin used similar methods when he was battling for supremacy, using the Trotskyism label for his opponents - making them a permanent herssy by definition.  



It's every single scientist, except for a few cranks, not because Scientists tow the line, but because, when it comes to data validation, scientists are among the most anal and fastidious of people around. (There's that word again)

I can't imagine any scientist I know actually subscribing to a general consensus unless the general consensus was quite rigorously established. It's more than my job is worth to lie about data. I would rather lay my job on the line than agree to something just because it fitted a certain agenda. It's the next worse thing to prostitution, and I know that the vast majority of scientists would agree.

Obviously there are one or two scientists who don't share my scruples about such things. A cluster of creationists at the University of Huntsville, Alabama spring to mind. I guess if they can change their views on reality based on scripture, then lying about other things is just a formality for them, whether it's the Christian Bible or the Bible of the Republican lobby. Their standard of honesty is clearly compromised if they can stoop to deliberately falsifying satellite temperature data. It speaks volumes about their learned establishment if they can commit such criminal fraud and still retain their positions. There are obviously great advantages to being on intimate terms with Senator Inhofe and other equally hypocritical good ol' boys.

Generally in the US, this issue used to be polarised on political grounds. Like anything else environmental, it is seen as a hindrance to business and is laughed aside.  Many Republicans are starting to realise the folly of the Bush Era thinking.

Unfortunately the extreme religion and the extreme attitude to the Environment seem to have gone hand in hand. If the world is about to end, way'll maybe it's just part of a grand prophesy - the Will of Gawd Almahdee and we should jest let it happen.    
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #84 - Nov 2nd, 2009 at 8:03am
 
Soren wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 7:02pm:
muso wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:00pm:
It's every single scientist apart from a few cranks.

It's very difficult to overlook the elephant in the room. 305 billion tonnes of carbon (GtC) have been emitted since the 18th century, nearly 42% of the total atmospheric inventory of 750 GtC, which has pushed CO2 levels to 387 ppm this year, 38% higher than the maximum of 280 ppm of the last 2.8 million years of glacial-interglacial Earth history.

No matter what you do, you can't hide that fact.


From 280 particles per million to 387 particles per million.



parts per million. Your point?
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #85 - Nov 2nd, 2009 at 8:32am
 
muso wrote on Nov 2nd, 2009 at 7:59am:
pjb05 wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:29pm:
muso wrote on Nov 1st, 2009 at 5:00pm:
It's every single scientist apart from a few cranks.



No wonder Soren described the language of warmists, for want of a better word, as Leninistic. Anyone who doesn't tow the line is a crank, in the pay of big business etc.  Stalin used similar methods when he was battling for supremacy, using the Trotskyism label for his opponents - making them a permanent herssy by definition.  



It's every single scientist, except for a few cranks, not because Scientists tow the line, but because, when it comes to data validation, scientists are among the most anal and fastidious of people around. (There's that word again)  


The line is toed for them:

THE nation's peak science agency has tried to gag the publication of a paper by one of its senior environmental economists attacking the Rudd government's climate change policies.

The paper, by the CSIRO's Clive Spash, argues the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme is an ineffective way to cut emissions, and instead direct legislation or a tax on carbon is needed.

The paper was accepted for publication by the journal New Political Economy after being internationally peer-reviewed.

But Dr Spash told the Australia New Zealand Society for Ecological Economics conference that the CSIRO had since June tried to block its publication.

In the paper, Dr Spash argues the economic theory underpinning emissions trading schemes is "far removed" from the reality of permit markets. "While carbon trading and offset schemes seem set to spread, they so far appear ineffective in terms of actually reducing GHGs (greenhouse gases)," he says. "Despite this apparent failure, ETS remain politically popular amongst the industrialised polluters.

"The public appearance is that action is being undertaken. The reality is that GHGs are increasing and society is avoiding the need for substantive proposals to address the problem of behavioural and structural change."

Dr Spash said trading schemes did not efficiently allocate emission cuts because their design was manipulated by vested interests. For example, in Australia, large polluters would be compensated with free permits while smaller, more competitive firms would have to buy theirs at auction. The schemes were also flawed because: global warming was caused by gases other than carbon; emissions were difficult to measure; carbon offsets bought from other countries were of dubious value; and the schemes "crowded out" voluntary action by individuals. He concludes that more direct measures, such as a carbon tax, regulations or new infrastructure would be simpler, more effective and less open to manipulation.

Dr Spash could not be contacted by The Australian.

However, his presentation to the ANZSEE conference in Darwin last Wednesday stated: "The CSIRO is currently maintaining they have the right to ban the written version of this paper from publication by myself as a representative of the organisation and by myself as a private citizen."

Dr Spash said CSIRO managers had written to the journal's editor demanding the paper not be published.

CSIRO spokesman Huw Morgan said the publication of Dr Spash's paper was an internal matter and was being reviewed by the chief executive's office.

However, he said that under the agency's charter scientists were forbidden from commenting on matters of government or opposition policy.

The CSIRO charter, introduced last year, was trumpeted by Science Minister Kim Carr as a way to guarantee freedom of expression for scientists.

Senator Carr said he was seeking a briefing from the CSIRO.

Opposition science spokesman Eric Abetz accused the government of empty spin.

Julian Cribb, adjunct professor of science communication at the University of Technology, Sydney, said gagging scientists deprived the public of scientific knowledge they had funded.

ANZSEE president Wendy Proctor said if Dr Spash's research questioned current orthodoxy, it should be made public to inform debate.
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #86 - Nov 2nd, 2009 at 8:38am
 
That's political censorship pure and simple.  Besides, it's bean counters, not scientists. Even I  said many times that a carbon tax is the way to go.  So that article is relevant to the subject at hand? ....why?
Quote:
Dr Spash said trading schemes did not efficiently allocate emission cuts because their design was manipulated by vested interests. For example, in Australia, large polluters would be compensated with free permits while smaller, more competitive firms would have to buy theirs at auction. The schemes were also flawed because: global warming was caused by gases other than carbon; emissions were difficult to measure; carbon offsets bought from other countries were of dubious value; and the schemes "crowded out" voluntary action by individuals. He concludes that more direct measures, such as a carbon tax, regulations or new infrastructure would be simpler, more effective and less open to manipulation.


Isn't that what I've been saying all along?
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #87 - Nov 2nd, 2009 at 9:52am
 
muso wrote on Nov 2nd, 2009 at 8:38am:
That's political censorship pure and simple.  Besides, it's bean counters, not scientists. Even I  said many times that a carbon tax is the way to go.  So that article is relevant to the subject at hand? ....why?


See above:


Quote:
Warmists can't agre among themselves. The ideas, the data, the interpretations, the gloom-doom, the 'well all be rooned' stuff is all over the place.
The one thing they all agree on is that anyone who does not quite agree with them is lying, is possessed by the devil or is the devil.




The last time the Thames froze over was in the 1810s. Then it warmed and there was, in Australia for example, a massive drought in the late 19th century. Then in the 1920s and 1930s it was warmer. Then from the 1940s to the 1970s it was colder, then warmer. Take those models, calculations, conjectures and proofs or whatever they are,  predicting future catastrophy  - and run them backwards, over those known and documented past temperature changes.
Can you say that your 'human emissions of CO2 causes global warming" thesis stands up and explaines those past changes? No. You cannot establish the influence of human CO2 emissions over these past changes, let alone causality.


What's the relevance of my spelling out the meaning of ppm as in 387 parts/particles per million? you ask.

One relevance is that the differnce between 280 and 387 - 107 parts per million - is not all human emission. but to make it simple, let's say it's all human emission. So the thesis is that global warming of catastrophic proportions is causedd by an increase of 100 parts in a million of the atmosphere. That is 1 percent of 1 percent.

The second relevance is related. What do the models, run backwards and forward, tell us about the function, changes, influence, relevance, yada yada yada of the other 99.99% of the atmosphere? WHy is the rest of the atmosphere ignored. Is it ignored?

And that's just the atmosphere. Is global climate really turning on a catastrophic scale on nothing more that a 0.01% change in the proportion of one of the gases that make up the atmosphere? The plant food component?


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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #88 - Nov 2nd, 2009 at 10:24am
 
Point 1 in Climate Change (Global Warming) Explained (The Sticky notes on top of this forum)

The actual concentration of Carbon dioxide is currently around 385 parts per million and has increased by around 30% in the last 50 years. This might seem like a very low concentration, but very low concentration can still have a significant effect. The basic physics is well established, and was first discovered by Arrhenius at the turn of the 20th Century.

As I've explained countless times before, there are of course other Greenhouse gases, and it is well established what they are and the degree to which they contribute to radiative forcing. The main ones are carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and then there are minor ones such as CFC12.

For convenience sake, we convert other gases to CO2 equivalents so that we can compare apples with apples, so we talk in terms of CO2 equivalents.

Water vapour is a feedback. Unlike the other greenhouse gases mentioned above, water is easily precipitated from the atmosphere when the temperature cycles down due to normal variations in the wether or diurnal/seasonal  temperatures etc.  It  obviously doesn't have the same accumulative effect, but in general, increased levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases lead to increased water vapour concentration.

Quote:
So the thesis is that global warming of catastrophic proportions is causedd by an increase of 100 parts in a million of the atmosphere.


Where did you get that from? 387ppm is today's level of CO2.
Do you see global warming of catastrophic proportion yet? I don't.

****Flawed logic detected*****


Quote:
Warmists can't agre among themselves. The ideas, the data, the interpretations, the gloom-doom, the 'well all be rooned' stuff is all over the place.
The one thing they all agree on is that anyone who does not quite agree with them is lying, is possessed by the devil or is the devil.


Sounds like an article of faith. Just who are these 'warmists' then? You haven't really told us yet. I suggested before that it includes the entire scientific establishment.
Quote:
And that's just the atmosphere. Is global climate really turning on a catastrophic scale on nothing more that a 0.01% change in the proportion of one of the gases that make up the atmosphere? The plant food component?


The plant food component eh? Damn. I put a heap of plant food on my lawn in Winter, which is also the driest part of the year. What do you think happened to the lawn? (maybe I didn't add enough)

After all, it's just plant food isn't it? Tell you what, I'll wait until it gets really hot and dry until I apply some more plant food? Do you think that will work better?

Isn't that what you're saying here?
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #89 - Nov 2nd, 2009 at 10:50am
 
Soren wrote on Nov 2nd, 2009 at 9:52am:
The second relevance is related. What do the models, run backwards and forward, tell us about the function, changes, influence, relevance, yada yada yada of the other 99.99% of the atmosphere? WHy is the rest of the atmosphere ignored. Is it ignored?



I'll tell you what. I'll try running time backwards so that all the money I spent last month comes back.  Do you really think you can run climate models backwards? Have you heard of the Second Law of Thermodynamics?

Is 99.99% of the atmosphere ignored in climate models?  I don't think so. Do you think we could model atmospheric heat transfers in a near vacuum? - because if 99.9% of the atmosphere was ignored, the climate models would come up with a climate more suited to a planet with low atmospheric pressure, such as Mars. Mind you I often get the feeling that you're on a different planet from the rest of us.
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