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Climate Change Discussion and Questions (Read 37775 times)
muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #45 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:43am
 
Soren wrote on Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:38am:
That's racists.


Yes, the Irish are very racist. They just introduced new blasphemy legislation.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #46 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:53am
 
So where's Keith Windschuttle when you need him?
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #47 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 11:23am
 
Soren wrote on Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:53am:
So where's Keith Windschuttle when you need him?


Maybe they've sent him to Ireland.  Cool
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #48 - Oct 25th, 2009 at 6:15am
 
Soren wrote on Oct 20th, 2009 at 9:38am:
Well, if it's Monbiot then Plimer has the debate in the bag.



Soren,

If you just read through the line by line refutal of Heaven and Earth by Ian Enting, it would become patently obvious that Plimer is either lying or he's suffering from an advanced stage of brain rot. I'd suggest the former.

You simply don't alter graph data to win arguments and retain any sense of credibility.  The only reason Plimer would win such an argument would be to refuse to answer the difficult questions entirely and bring up a new string of totally false data. Of course, that's exactly what they do.
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Mercedes With Square Wheels
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #49 - Oct 25th, 2009 at 4:20pm
 
Guys, I'm having a really hard time trying to bring myself to care about climate change. While more and more I'm realizing that the science behind it is valid and that it is probably happening as a result of human industrial activity, it only takes twenty seconds of looking at the kind of people who are complaining about it all the time to make me want to bag the hell out of them. Is there anybody who can help me or am I right to believe that it's basically happening but there's nothing that can be really done about it at present and its prophets of doom are just incorrigble faggots?
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« Last Edit: Oct 25th, 2009 at 7:43pm by N/A »  
 
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #50 - Oct 25th, 2009 at 6:53pm
 
Quote:
Guys, I'm having a really hard time trying to bring myself to care about climate change. While more and more I'm realizing that the science behind it is valid and that it is probably happening as a result of human industrial activity, it only takes twenty seconds of looking at the kind of people who are complaining about it all the time to make me want to bag the hell out of them. Is there anybody who can help me or am I right to believe that it's basically happening but there's nothing that can be really done about it at present and the its prophets of doom are just incorrigble faggots?



Yeah, I feel your pain.

People banging on about antropogenic climate change (used to be global warming) are by and large insufferable. (Not you, muso)

Does climate change? Yes - what doesn't?

Is it caused by human carbon emission? No.

Is unlimited carbon emission a good thing? No.

Is it worth switching to renewable, clean energy, regardless? Of course.

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #51 - Oct 26th, 2009 at 8:21am
 
Quote:
Guys, I'm having a really hard time trying to bring myself to care about climate change. While more and more I'm realizing that the science behind it is valid and that it is probably happening as a result of human industrial activity, it only takes twenty seconds of looking at the kind of people who are complaining about it all the time to make me want to bag the hell out of them. Is there anybody who can help me or am I right to believe that it's basically happening but there's nothing that can be really done about it at present and its prophets of doom are just incorrigble faggots?


Have a look on the 'New value of Pi' thread and you'll be encouraged by such manly figures as Richard Lindzen and Christopher Monckton (aka the Potty Peer) with his pink House of Lords logo. Both of them will be quick to reassure you that there is nothing to worry about.

There is a lot that we can do about it, but it's not a simple as some protesters think. Maybe they believe that we can just turn off all coal powered power stations overnight, but some of us have a sense of reality.

Maybe some appear to be total noobs, but if you think about the people in your high school class who actually went out to become doctors and solicitors, they were probably the nerds.

Like it or not, the technocrats - the people who actually know what's going on and the people who have the real say, happen to be nerds. They get into politics too.

No personality? No problem. Just employ a publicity agent. They can advise you to do all kinds of things to improve your popularity with the hip members of society who just like to go out, get drunk, stoned or both, achieve absolutely nothing in life while having a totally epic time, then boast about it on Facebook.  

Slip into a New York strip club, swear at staff occasionally and drop a few really ocker expressions from time to time, and even if you can speak faultless grammatically correct Mandarin, just make sure you learn the ocker expressions carefully and with the right emphasis to make you look like a normal aussie. An intelligent self-respecting nerd could even become PM of Australia by following those simple rules.  Tongue
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« Last Edit: Oct 26th, 2009 at 8:34am by muso »  

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #52 - Oct 26th, 2009 at 11:31am
 
Soren wrote on Oct 25th, 2009 at 6:53pm:
Does climate change? Yes - what doesn't?

Is it caused by human carbon emission? No.



Soren,

I could post any one of numerous reports to back this up. This one shows a plot of Ocean pH over the last ~24 million years. I don't know if I have to explain pH, but it's related to acidification.

Have a look at natural variation in Ocean pH. It's just like any graph of natural variation - things change - slowly. Climate changes - slowly too.  Now look at the line that indicates our progress towards 2100. We're already on that line.

Do you notice anything unusual? Is it all just natural variation, or would you say that the vertical line that sticks out like dogs' gonads just might be different?

Quote:
I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more. ...

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« Last Edit: Oct 26th, 2009 at 1:25pm by muso »  

ocean_pH.jpg (18 KB | 47 )
ocean_pH.jpg

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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #53 - Oct 30th, 2009 at 10:37am
 
Yeah, I notice what an utterly bogus graph it is. Laughable. Look at the scale. Ridiculous.
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blutigeroo
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #54 - Oct 30th, 2009 at 10:50am
 
Thanks for the info Muso, its really interesting. When will our governments change from only talking about the issue of climate change to actually doind something about it.
In Aus we have an abundant supply of many alternative sources of energy: waves, sun, uranium (although I personally would not like us to use uranium if we can help it).
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #55 - Oct 30th, 2009 at 11:17am
 
blutigeroo wrote on Oct 30th, 2009 at 10:50am:
Thanks for the info Muso, its really interesting. When will our governments change from only talking about the issue of climate change to actually doind something about it.
In Aus we have an abundant supply of many alternative sources of energy: waves, sun, uranium (although I personally would not like us to use uranium if we can help it).


Hopefully after Copenhagen in December. I sincerely hope that there will be no more empty promises.

As for Uranium, the Australian people will never agree to commercial scale nuclear reactors in Australia, but in the end it doesn't matter where it's used as fuel, as long as it is used as fuel. We share the same atmosphere with the rest of the world.

As long  as we keep producing as much Uranium as possible for power generation purposes, then the end result will be the same or better.

There are better informed populations elsewhere who will welcome it, and they don't have the benefit of huge geothermal and solar resources like Australia. If we concentrate on deveoping geothermal and solar resources and sell our uranium overseas, it might be the best option anyway.   


Soren, for an obviously well-educated person, the depth of your delusion and hypocrisy on this issue quite frankly astounds me.
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« Last Edit: Oct 30th, 2009 at 11:24am by muso »  

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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #56 - Oct 30th, 2009 at 11:59am
 
muso wrote on Oct 30th, 2009 at 11:17am:
Soren, for an obviously well-educated person, the depth of your delusion and hypocrisy on this issue quite frankly astounds me.


Meh...



It is a ridiculous graph. It tries to show 100-200 years on a graph of 25 million years. And it tries to say that the pH of the oceans is changing uniformly. It's a Gore-y graph.


I am reassured that all you can say to that is that I am deluded and hypocritical (where is the double standard, by the way, that evokes cries of hypochrisy? )

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #57 - Oct 30th, 2009 at 7:36pm
 
I think you're missing the point. The pH of the ocean is changing dramatically as a result of increased CO2 from burning fossil fuels, cement production and changes in tropical land use.

You can clearly see how far removed we are from the slow natural changes.

The graph was part of the Copenhagen Sythesis report and was submitted by Dr. Carol Turley, Plymouth Marine Laboratory in the UK.

It was submitted by the researcher herself, and was not third hand and distorted like most of Plimer's.

Quote:
Ocean acidification is a direct and certain consequence of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere; its consequences on the global ocean are only now emerging. The oceans have already taken up around 27-34% of the CO2 produced by humankind since the industrial revolution. Whilst this has limited the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, it has come at the price of a dramatic change to ocean chemistry. In particular, and of great concern, are the observed changes in ocean pH and carbonate and bicarbonate ion concentrations.

Evidence indicates that ocean acidification is a serious threat to many organisms and may have implications for food webs and ecosystems and the multi-billion dollar services they provide. For instance, erosion is likely to outpace growth of tropical coral reefs at 450-480 ppm CO2; there are already reports of a 19% decrease in growth of Great Barrier Reef corals.

When atmospheric CO2 reaches 450 ppm, large areas of the polar oceans will likely have become corrosive to shells of key marine calcifiers, an effect that will be strongestin the Arctic. Already, loss of shell weight in planktonic Antarctic calcifiers has been observed. Decreasing pH could also make oceans noisier in the audible range with potentialimplications for marine life, as well as for scientific, commercial, and naval applications using ocean acoustics.

The rate of change in ocean chemistry is very high (see figure), faster than previous ocean acidification-driven extinctions in Earth’s history, from which it took hundreds of thousands of years for marine ecosystems to recover. Ocean acidification will continue to track future CO2 emissions to the atmosphere so urgent and substantial emission reductions are the only way of reducing the impact of ocean acidification.


It's not the scale of the graph that's ridiculous, but the recent rate of change in ocean pH.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #58 - Oct 30th, 2009 at 9:08pm
 
Don't be ridiculous. How did she measure acidification over 25 million years?

She didn't. She is guessing, or rather conjecturing from corals, probably. Anybody who is talking about that amount of change in pH over 25 million years as fact is bullsh!tting. And what is the margin of error of these guesstimates?
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« Last Edit: Oct 30th, 2009 at 9:15pm by Soren »  
 
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #59 - Oct 31st, 2009 at 7:29am
 
Soren wrote on Oct 30th, 2009 at 9:08pm:
Don't be ridiculous. How did she measure acidification over 25 million years?

She didn't. She is guessing, or rather conjecturing from corals, probably. Anybody who is talking about that amount of change in pH over 25 million years as fact is bullsh!tting. And what is the margin of error of these guesstimates?



Aha! - deliberately spreading confusion again.  Acidification is the recent process where increased production of CO2 is leading to reduction in ocean pH. The parameter measured over 25 million years is pH, not acidification. Soren, if you protest wildly about technical matters that you don't actually understand, then it doesn't matter how much impeccable rhetoric you use. You still end up looking foolish.

As far as the question of how you measure ocean pH over 25 million years, it is done by the use of proxies. Obviously an indirect method was used.

You are familar of course with the proxy data that is used to measure global temperature using Deuterium in ice cores? The one that is quite happily accepted and manipulated by denialists such as McIntyre? (I should add that he doesn't have the resources to produce his own data, so he manipulates that of others)

Anyway that's another example of proxy data. The proxy data matches quite well with recent data, and that gives us the confidence to use it over a longer period, especially if it's backed up by other proxy data.  The boron isotope ratio of biogenic carbonate is well established as a proxy for ocean pH.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/282/5393/1468

There have been many other studies that corroborate that one of course. Corals? - no, bad guess, Soren. They usually use benthic foraminifera.  

It's quite enlightening that you didn't ask the question "how did she measure ocean pH?" like most normal people would have done. Instead, you go on the attack immediately without any data to back you up. She was "guessing", you splutter, "conjecturing from corals" probably. In fact the only person doing the guessing is you  Grin

Now for the question of error bars. She could have used error bars, but to do so would have been difficult in this case.  The error in this case is extremely low. A graph of pH is on a logarithmic scale. A pH increase from say 7 to 8 represents a tenfold decrease (in hydrogen ion concentration), so any error in concentration would be reduced to being insignificant on a pH scale.  Try it on your scientific calculator if you don't believe me. There is one built in to your operating system. I'm sure any highschool student worth his salt would be happy to demonstrate its use.

You do understand the concept of logarithm I take it?
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« Last Edit: Oct 31st, 2009 at 8:14am by muso »  

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