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Climate Change Discussion and Questions (Read 37771 times)
muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #30 - Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:26pm
 
NorthOfNorth wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:15pm:
Who are you? And what have you done with Grendel? Grin


He's Soren of Borg. Grendel has been assimilated.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #31 - Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:48pm
 
muso wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:18pm:
Soren wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:06pm:
muso wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 1:53pm:
he overestimated the actual change in sea level (130 metres over 14,000 years) It's more like 120 metres over 25,000 years.


Time to get out that fire extinguisher again.



Wow, 10 metres, less than 10% difference,  between the estimates for difference over 14-25 millenia!! Head for the hills!!


I agree, it is a major issue whether you are 120 or 130 metres under water.




Gloss-over alert!   No - not 10%. Notice that the number of years is  different. It's actually more like 80 metres over the 14,000 year span.

I make that a 75% error, not a 10% error.




OK, 120 OR 130 metres ever a bloody long pre-historic time.


Is this a 5 minute argument or the full half hour?

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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #32 - Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:54pm
 
muso wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:24pm:
[quote author=athiest link=1247905174/15#24 date=1255928919]I thankyou for explaining all of this Muso, it can get confusing with the denialist camp doing their best to undermine the scientific facts with lies.
People like Plimer and those that believe his lies care more about their hip pocket than they do about our earths future.



I really don't know what motivates Plimer. /quote]

So now Robyn Williams and his Science Unit at your ABC are putting senile professors on air?



Quote:
The best I can judge is that he's just senile.


Mebbe he has a point or two. Has that ever crossed your mind?


Or... would that be racist?

Smiley
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NorthOfNorth
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #33 - Oct 19th, 2009 at 4:41pm
 
muso wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:26pm:
NorthOfNorth wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:15pm:
Who are you? And what have you done with Grendel? Grin


He's Soren of Borg. Grendel has been assimilated.

Ah... That explains the two heads;D
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #34 - Oct 19th, 2009 at 6:09pm
 
Borg? Two heads?

Sorry fellas, you are passing the ball to people only you can see.

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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #35 - Oct 19th, 2009 at 10:51pm
 
Soren wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 6:09pm:
Borg? Two heads?

Sorry fellas, you are passing the ball to people only you can see.


'There are none so blind' ...
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #36 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 8:02am
 
Soren wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:54pm:
So now Robyn Williams and his Science Unit at your ABC are putting senile professors on air?



Robyn Williams did the only fair thing that was open to a civilised cricket playing gentleman. He gave Plimer a chance to defend himself after hosting several heated attacks on his book.

Did you notice how little Robyn Williams actually said though during that lengthy and embarassing monologue (embarrassing for Plimer)?

He well and truly bit his tongue.  It must be tough being a journalist and a scientist, but as far as I know, the decision was made for him.

It's quite clear from previous Science Shows where he stands.
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« Last Edit: Oct 20th, 2009 at 8:39am by muso »  

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #37 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 8:38am
 
Soren wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:54pm:
Mebbe he has a point or two. Has that ever crossed your mind?



I looked very closely at the transcript, and no - he did not make a single point that was relevant to the issue.

I don't think anybody else in recorded history has elicited such a strong response from Australian scientists. These people are generally known for being unflappable. The greatest reaction has been from his own field of Geology and Earth Science.

Kurt Lambeck, earth scientist and president of the Australian Academy of Science:

Quote:
To give his arguments a semblance of respectability the book is replete with references. But the choice is very selective. Plimer will quote, for example, a paper that appears to support his argument, but then he does not mention that the conclusions therein have been completely refuted in subsequent papers. Elsewhere, he refers to a specific question raised in published work but does not mention that this issue has subsequently been resolved, has been incorporated in subsequent analyses, and is no longer relevant. Or he simply misquotes the work or takes it out of context. An example of this is a reference to my own in the Mediterranean where he gives quite a misleading twist to what we actually concluded.


Climate scientist Barry Brook
Quote:
It may well be held up as an example for the future. An example of just how deluded and misrepresentative the pseudo-sceptical war against science really was in the first decade of the 21st century.


Earth scientist Andrew Glikson

Quote:
The book negates the well documented consistent relations between climate and carbon gases, which through the Earth’s history resulted in temperature changes in the range of several degrees C , including abrupt climate changes and related mass extinction of species .


I'll go over the post size limit if I quote many more, but you just need to Google Plimer and the following for more damning evidence:

Climate scientist David Karoly
Astronomer Michael Ashley
Geologist and Planetary scientist Malcolm Walter

There are many others from overseas.
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« Last Edit: Oct 20th, 2009 at 9:07am by muso »  

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #38 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 9:24am
 
It should be interesting when Plimer visits the UK in November. George Monbiot has plans for a face to face debate.

Here are Monbiot's preliminary questions:

1. The first graph in your book (Figure 1, page 11) shows global temperatures, as measured by the Hadley Centre (HadCRUT), falling by 0.3C between 2007 and 2008. In reality the fall recorded by the HadCRUT3 data series is 0.089C.

How do you explain the discrepancy between the HadCRUT3 figure and your claim?

2. Figure 3 (page 25) is a graph purporting to show that most of the warming in the 20th Century took place before 1945, and was followed by a period of sharp cooling. You cite no source for it, but it closely resembles the global temperature graph in the first edition of Martin Durkin's film The Great Global Warming Swindle. Durkin later changed the graph after it was shown to have been distorted by extending the timeline.

In your book it remains unchanged.

Tim Lambert has reproduced the graph here.

a. What is the source for the graph you used?

b. Where was it first published?

c. Whose figures does it use?

d. How do you explain the alteration of both the curves and the timeline?

3. You maintain that:

    "the last two years of global cooling have erased nearly thirty years of temperature increase."

(page 25)

Again you do not provide a reference. As you can see here, the Met Office HadCRUT3 series shows that this claim is untrue.

a. Please give the source for your claim.

b. How do you reconcile it with the published data?

4. In your discussion of global temperature trends, you maintain that:

    "NASA now states that […] the warmest year was 1934." (p99)

a. Are you aware that this applies only to the United States?

b. Was this a mistake or did you deliberately confuse these two datasets?

5. Discussing climate trends in the Arctic, you state that:

    "the sea ice has expanded" (p198).

Again, you give no reference.

a. Please give a source for this claim.

b. How do you explain the discrepancy between this claim and the published data?

6. You state that:

    "If the current atmospheric CO2 content of 380 ppmv were doubled to 760 ppmv […] [a]n increase of 0.5C is likely" (p366).

Again you give no source. Please provide a reference for this claim.

7. You claim that:

    "About 98% of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere is due to water vapour." (p370).

Ian Enting says:

    "In some cases the numbers given by Plimer are exaggerated to such an extent as to imply that without water vapour, Earth's temperature would be below absolute zero - a physical impossibility."

He explains this as follows.

You state:

    "The Earth has an average surface temperature of about 15C […] If the atmosphere had no CO2, far more heat would be lost from Earth and the average surface temperature would be -3C." (p366)

Enting says:

    "The implication of attributing 18C of warming to CO2 while saying […] 'About 98% of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere is due to water vapour' is to imply that in the absence of CO2 and H2O, the temperature would be 900C lower, i.e. well below the physical limit of absolute zero."

Again you give no source.

a. Please provide a reference for your claim about water vapour.

b. Please explain how your two statements (98% of the greenhouse effect is caused by water vapour and 18C can be attributed to CO2) can both be true.

8. You cite a paper by Charles F Keller as the source of your claim that:

    "satellites and radiosondes show that there is no global warming." (p382)

This is what the paper says:

    "The big news [is] the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions."

a. How did you manage to reverse the findings of this paper?

b. Was it a mistake or was it deliberate misrepresentation?

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #39 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 9:24am
 
Monbiot's questions continued:

9. You state:

    "The Hadley Centre in the UK has shown that warming stopped in 1998" (p391).

Again you produce no reference.

This is what the Hadley Centre says:

    "The evidence is clear – the long-term trend is that global temperatures are rising, and humans are largely responsible for this rise. Global warming does not mean that each year will be warmer than the last. Natural phenomena will mean that some years will be much warmer and others cooler. You only need to look at 1998 to see a record-breaking warm year caused by a very strong El Niño. In the last couple of years, the underlying warming is partially masked caused by a strong La Niña. Despite this, 11 of the last 13 years were the warmest ever recorded. […] Over the last ten years, global temperatures have warmed more slowly than the long-term trend. But this does not mean that global warming has slowed down or even stopped. It is entirely consistent with our understanding of natural fluctuations of the climate within a trend of continued long-term warming."

a. Please give a reference for your claim.

b. How do you explain the discrepancy between your account of what the Hadley Centre says and theirs?

10. You state that:

    "Volcanoes produce more CO2 than the world's cars and industries combined." (p413)

This is similar to the claim in The Great Global Warming Swindle, whose narrator maintained that:

    "Volcanoes produce more CO2 each year than all the factories and cars and planes and other sources of man-made carbon dioxide put together."

But you do not provide a source for it.

This is what the US Geological Survey says:

    "Human activities release more than 130 times the amount of CO2 emitted by volcanoes".

a. Please provide a reference for your claim.

b. How do you explain the discrepancy between this claim and the published data?

11. You maintain that:

    "termite methane emissions are 20 times potent than human CO2 emissions". (p472)

Please provide a source for this claim.

Thank you,

Yours Sincerely,

George Monbiot
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #40 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 9:38am
 
Well, if it's Monbiot then Plimer has the debate in the bag.


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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #41 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 9:40am
 
muso wrote on Oct 20th, 2009 at 8:02am:
Soren wrote on Oct 19th, 2009 at 3:54pm:
So now Robyn Williams and his Science Unit at your ABC are putting senile professors on air?



Robyn Williams did the only fair thing that was open to a civilised cricket playing gentleman. He gave Plimer a chance to defend himself after hosting several heated attacks on his book.

Did you notice how little Robyn Williams actually said though during that lengthy and embarassing monologue (embarrassing for Plimer)?

He well and truly bit his tongue.  It must be tough being a journalist and a scientist, but as far as I know, the decision was made for him.

It's quite clear from previous Science Shows where he stands.



Really? Fascinating.

Now even your BBC is at it - through clenched teeth, no doubt.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm


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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #42 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:25am
 
If you read the whole article, you'll see that it's not actually defending climate pseudosceptics at all. It's attempting to give journalistic balance (in this case totally misguided)

Remember the bumpy road analogy going up the hill? It might have its bumps, but basically the road is going uphill.

A pseudo sceptic might say that because of the corrugations, the car is actually going downhill for half of the time.

Just to prove that I'm not very politically correct, it's a bit like the Irishman who was asked to check the car indicators. Is it working Paddy?

....yes..no..yes..no..yes..no........
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #43 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:38am
 
That's racists.
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #44 - Oct 20th, 2009 at 10:38am
 
Soren wrote on Oct 20th, 2009 at 9:38am:
Well, if it's Monbiot then Plimer has the debate in the bag.




You obviously did not read the questions. Grin 

Plimer is a dead duck. He's also a major joke among academics by the way.

These are major howlers in his book.  If you can't see that, you probably need new reading glasses.

So roast duck will definitely be on the menu in London but it will probably be over-cooked.
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