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Climate Change Discussion and Questions (Read 37797 times)
Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #255 - Jan 30th, 2010 at 12:30pm
 
muso wrote on Jan 30th, 2010 at 11:54am:
John Beddington, but regardless of whether the Himalyan glaciers melt by 2035 or 2053, South East Asian is in for a rough trot in the area of water supply.

Well hello? Nobody has said that the problem has gone away! It's just that the year 2035 was an overestimation.



An overestimation in an interview which was subsequently picked up and eagerly pressed into service because it fitted the political agenda to 'influence' governments.

You can't make people panic if you are all cautios, empirical and disinterested like -  whaddaya call 'em? - scientists.

Add zing - lose credibility, "it's as simple as that" as you like to say. Beddington is waking up. He and the rest have slept in til mid-afternoon, as it were, but a least they are now stirring.





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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #256 - Jan 30th, 2010 at 3:34pm
 
It's in nobody's best interest to overstate the issue. We basically need as many facts as possible in order to address this issue.

Beddington is not the only one to be worried about the false or overstated information that's getting out, particularly from overzealous journalists. It's almost as bad to overstate as it is to play down the crisis.

That doesn't mean that we can relax. Just because the Himalayas glaciers won't melt until 2050 doesn't mean that the whole crisis is over. It's just a question of getting the most accurate information possible. 

- and if there is any waking up to do, it's waking up to the fact that the crisis of climate disruption is still on.
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mozzaok
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #257 - Jan 30th, 2010 at 8:48pm
 
Soren wrote on Jan 30th, 2010 at 10:56am:
mozzaok wrote on Jan 30th, 2010 at 3:08am:
Testing?

Great idea Soren, your new career awaits.



What?? The idea of empirically testing hypotheses catches you by surprise and makes you sneer, as if it was some far-out wacko notion?


Not at all Soren, I think it is a great idea.
Now if you can get the requests through to the great almighty to send through the empirical data from the identical, (except for each possible contributing factor, and combination thereof) parallell universes, we can see the results of empirical testing.
If you can post the results from the parallell universe where you still listen to reason, then that would be entertaining as well.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #258 - Feb 5th, 2010 at 7:33am
 
mozzaok wrote on Jan 30th, 2010 at 8:48pm:
Soren wrote on Jan 30th, 2010 at 10:56am:
mozzaok wrote on Jan 30th, 2010 at 3:08am:
Testing?

Great idea Soren, your new career awaits.



What?? The idea of empirically testing hypotheses catches you by surprise and makes you sneer, as if it was some far-out wacko notion?


Not at all Soren, I think it is a great idea.
Now if you can get the requests through to the great almighty to send through the empirical data from the identical, (except for each possible contributing factor, and combination thereof) parallell universes, we can see the results of empirical testing.
If you can post the results from the parallell universe where you still listen to reason, then that would be entertaining as well.



That's right. AGW is a non-testable hypothesis. Strictly speaking, that makes it only a partially scientific case. The science is not settled, and even by your reckoning cannot be settled, because exprimemental verification or falsification is not possible.

SO consensus has to be built on a different grounds. But most opf those grounds have been destroyed by the crazy, baseless  alarmists overshouting and over-reaching.




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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #259 - Feb 7th, 2010 at 5:01pm
 
Soren wrote on Feb 5th, 2010 at 7:33am:
That's right. AGW is a non-testable hypothesis. Strictly speaking, that makes it only a partially scientific case. The science is not settled, and even by your reckoning cannot be settled, because exprimemental verification or falsification is not possible.

SO consensus has to be built on a different grounds. But most opf those grounds have been destroyed by the crazy, baseless  alarmists overshouting and over-reaching.



I've made the case for this before, but there are a number of ways in which the hypothesis has already been verified. You, for some reason choose to ignore these.

The decreasing temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, and the measured decrease in long wave radiation from the Earth as measured from space provide abundant evidence.  If stratospheric temperatures were rising, it would falsify the hypothesis. If Long Wave radiation were actually increasing with time, it would falsify the hypothesis.

Of course they support the hypothesis.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #260 - Feb 7th, 2010 at 8:44pm
 
All your readings and references are to change in - what is it? - climate, warming, justice, whatever. There is change. There is time, there is change. No biggie, as adolescents say.

What is not established is that these changes are due to human activity.

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #261 - Feb 8th, 2010 at 3:58pm
 
Soren wrote on Feb 7th, 2010 at 8:44pm:
What is not established is that these changes are due to human activity.



Sigh. It is actually and I've explained it before ad nauseum. Please continue to live in denial though.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #262 - Feb 8th, 2010 at 5:43pm
 
muso wrote on Feb 8th, 2010 at 3:58pm:
Soren wrote on Feb 7th, 2010 at 8:44pm:
What is not established is that these changes are due to human activity.



Sigh. It is actually and I've explained it before ad nauseum.



That's the, er, 'science is settled' bit, isn't it?
Grin

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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #263 - Feb 8th, 2010 at 9:03pm
 
Quote:
Have you ever heard of Le Chatelier's Principle? It's more commonly applied to chemical reactions, but in many real-life situations, reactions and effects are reversible. The Global Temperature / atmospheric CO2  relationship is such an equilibrium situation.  Increase the CO2, the temperature rises, but increase the temperature (for example by increases in solar irradiance, and CO2 is released from the Oceans, increasing the atmospheric concentration.   



Muso, this is post-modern, activist science journalism. Unwittingly,  you are undermining your own case in the rush to be seen as as knowledgable. That kind of rerversability of cause and effect, if applied to warming, would mean that the increased CO2 is not due to human activity. So going with Chatelier's Priniple, you would have to revise the A in AGW.

But then we would have a completely different issue and the question would be: how to respond to natural climate change? I would hazard a guess that the existing shake-down principles would continue to apply but at least humanity would not be fingered as the casuei
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #264 - Feb 8th, 2010 at 11:46pm
 
I would like to share three rules I have introduced into my life that have brought me much peace and tranqulity, not to mention saved me an awful lot of time:

1. Do not debate evolution with overzealous christians.
2. Do not debate the causes of lung cancer with tobacco lobbyists.
3. Do not debate anthropogenic global warming with deniers.
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mozzaok
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #265 - Feb 9th, 2010 at 7:08am
 
Fair enough points Paella, but the fact is that most responses are not given in a vain attempt at penetrating the intransigent attitudes of the deniers, but rather to not leave false ideas, and false premises left unchallenged.
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #266 - Feb 9th, 2010 at 10:42am
 
Soren wrote on Feb 8th, 2010 at 9:03pm:
Quote:
Have you ever heard of Le Chatelier's Principle? It's more commonly applied to chemical reactions, but in many real-life situations, reactions and effects are reversible. The Global Temperature / atmospheric CO2  relationship is such an equilibrium situation.  Increase the CO2, the temperature rises, but increase the temperature (for example by increases in solar irradiance, and CO2 is released from the Oceans, increasing the atmospheric concentration.   



Muso, this is post-modern, activist science journalism. Unwittingly,  you are undermining your own case in the rush to be seen as as knowledgable. That kind of rerversability of cause and effect, if applied to warming, would mean that the increased CO2 is not due to human activity. So going with Chatelier's Priniple, you would have to revise the A in AGW.

But then we would have a completely different issue and the question would be: how to respond to natural climate change? I would hazard a guess that the existing shake-down principles would continue to apply but at least humanity would not be fingered as the casue




You display a total ignorance of equilibria. They were teaching Le Chatelier's Principle since at least 1920. They were certainly teaching it in the 1970's when I did my first degree.

There is a natural equilibrium, but superimposed on that is the addition of about 8000 Gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. That is not an insignificant amount.  The effect of that has been to shift the natural equilibrium.
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #267 - Feb 9th, 2010 at 10:45am
 
Soren wrote on Feb 8th, 2010 at 5:43pm:
muso wrote on Feb 8th, 2010 at 3:58pm:
Soren wrote on Feb 7th, 2010 at 8:44pm:
What is not established is that these changes are due to human activity.



Sigh. It is actually and I've explained it before ad nauseum.



That's the, er, 'science is settled' bit, isn't it?
Grin



er no - It's a bit more verbose than that. See the sticky threads.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #268 - Feb 9th, 2010 at 1:42pm
 
Paella wrote on Feb 8th, 2010 at 11:46pm:
3. Do not debate anthropogenic global warming with deniers.


But kibbitzing is OK, presumably.



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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #269 - Feb 9th, 2010 at 2:14pm
 
muso wrote on Feb 9th, 2010 at 10:42am:
Soren wrote on Feb 8th, 2010 at 9:03pm:
Quote:
Have you ever heard of Le Chatelier's Principle? It's more commonly applied to chemical reactions, but in many real-life situations, reactions and effects are reversible. The Global Temperature / atmospheric CO2  relationship is such an equilibrium situation.  Increase the CO2, the temperature rises, but increase the temperature (for example by increases in solar irradiance, and CO2 is released from the Oceans, increasing the atmospheric concentration.   



Muso, this is post-modern, activist science journalism. Unwittingly,  you are undermining your own case in the rush to be seen as as knowledgable. That kind of rerversability of cause and effect, if applied to warming, would mean that the increased CO2 is not due to human activity. So going with Chatelier's Priniple, you would have to revise the A in AGW.

But then we would have a completely different issue and the question would be: how to respond to natural climate change? I would hazard a guess that the existing shake-down principles would continue to apply but at least humanity would not be fingered as the casue




You display a total ignorance of equilibria. They were teaching Le Chatelier's Principle since at least 1920. They were certainly teaching it in the 1970's when I did my first degree.

There is a natural equilibrium, but superimposed on that is the addition of about 8000 Gigatonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. That is not an insignificant amount.  The effect of that has been to shift the natural equilibrium.



And when was the climate in 'natural equilibrium'?

More importantly, you came up with the Chatelier bizo to show how cause and effect can be interchanged to explain away the hoistorical sequence of warming followed by increased CO2.
Applying equilibrium principles to the climate, it would mean that even though in the past Gaia increased her CO2 output in response to warming, now she is increasing her temperature in response to CO2. For the first time ever.

You are saying that by way of Chatelier's Principles of chemical equilibrium, since 1920, the after-effect of previous warmings (CO2) can become the cause of warming. At last, a 'retrospective cause'.

Because as every schoolboy knows, it's really a balance of warming and CO2 when you sit on the climate see-saw, it's only these two things that need to be in the equation. One way or another, it's gotta be that 8000 gigatonnes of CO2. That's an awful lot of lollies, even if it only means less than 0.05% of the total atmospheric gases.




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