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Climate Change Discussion and Questions (Read 37749 times)
pjb05
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #135 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 3:31pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 7th, 2009 at 10:21am:
[

The "Gaia hypothesis" actually works quite well. The Earth tends to compensate for changes quite well. Microbial life is a very important buffer to maintaining viable atmospheric conditions- but there are limits.  James Lovelock and other supporters of the idea now call it "Gaia theory", regarding it as a scientific theory and not mere hypothesis, since they believe it has passed predictive tests.



Isn't Lovelock the guy who said that AGW will reduce the human population to a few breeding pairs in Antarctica? Regarding the statement you highlighted, isn't that at odds with you catastrophic claims resulting from climate change (eg the GBR to be extinct in 50 years)?
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #136 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 6:22pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 6th, 2009 at 8:54am:
LOL - even though it's not relevant, I just wondered what would happen if I extracted the data and subjected it to some analysis.

The nearest thing I could find on that URL on the graph to what it was claimed to be was "Seasonal_HadCET_mean.txt (1659 on)"

First of all the data is broken down into seasons, so I converted the file to a csv, using search and replace to convert the white spaces to commas. Then I calculated the mean temperature for each year and finally calculated running averages over each 10 years so that we can make some sense of the trends.

Guess what? My graph looks nothing like the graph on your post, pjb. It shows a remarkable increase in temperatures in recent times.

Now why does that not surprise me?  Grin

I'm starting to wonder if they actually used any of the data on that site, and if so, which data set did they use?


Remarkable? I can see a couple of periods of rising temperatures on your version that look remarkably similar to the recent warming!
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #137 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 6:37pm
 
pjb05 wrote on Nov 7th, 2009 at 3:31pm:
muso wrote on Nov 7th, 2009 at 10:21am:
[

The "Gaia hypothesis" actually works quite well. The Earth tends to compensate for changes quite well. Microbial life is a very important buffer to maintaining viable atmospheric conditions- but there are limits.  James Lovelock and other supporters of the idea now call it "Gaia theory", regarding it as a scientific theory and not mere hypothesis, since they believe it has passed predictive tests.



Isn't Lovelock the guy who said that AGW will reduce the human population to a few breeding pairs in Antartica? Regarding the statement you highlighted, isn't that at odds with you catastrophic claims resulting from climate change (eg the GBR to be extinct in 50 years)?


He said something about people living in Antarctica but he was referring to the distant future. I attended his talk in Adelaide a couple of years ago. A few breeding pairs ? no. He did say that maybe 2 billion of us would survive, but he didn't give a timescale.

As far as the Great Barrier Reef being extinct in 50 years, that's pretty well mainstream thought now. A lot of work has been done since AR4 in 2007.  By about 2055, the rate of calcification will not be able to keep pace with the rate of erosion, so the GBR will start a fairly rapid decline.  

There has been a considerable amount of work done on this at James Cook University in Townsville, and a great deal more since the following book was published:  

Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef: A Vulnerability Assessment

Quote:
There is overwhelming evidence that corals and the reefs they build will not be able to maintain themselves or grow if CO2 concentrations rise above 500 parts per million. This level of CO2 is at the lower end of the range of greenhouse scenarios for the end of this century.
(For the last few years, carbon emissions have been at the upper range of IPCC Scenarios.)

You can download the entire publication here:
http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/corp_site/info_services/publications/misc_pub/climate_c...

Even back in 2004, a WWF Report stated that:

Quote:
Change to the health of our ecosystems as a result of climate change is inevitable. Even under the best case scenario, losses of at least 50% of the Reef’s living coral cover are likely to occur by 2050.
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #138 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 6:43pm
 
I see that I didn't answer your question. The Earth's Ecosystems can adapt quite well, but not well enough to cope with 7 extra Gigatonnes of carbon emissions per year. Around the year 2000, it was estimated that dropping to 2 Gigatonnes per annum would result in the  atmospheric concentration of CO2 stabilising. I don't know offhand what that figure would be now.
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #139 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 7:47pm
 
pjb05 wrote on Nov 7th, 2009 at 6:22pm:
Remarkable? I can see a couple of periods of rising temperatures on your version that look remarkably similar to the recent warming!


OK, first of all bear in mind that it's data from Central England, not Global data.

There have been warming periods in the past, but the mechanism was different. That's not a cop-out either. To explain that, we'd have to look at Solar Irradiance proxies, and most of the work in that area has been done by the Max Plank Institute using a number of proxies. Let me just look that up and we'll take a look at what the Sun has been doing over that period (I hope it's published on the web).

Of course, there was the Maunder minimum in the late 17th Century, so the first temperature increase may well be a result of the recovery from that period.  

The last 50 years has shown a steady decline in Solar output, yet there has been a  rise in global mean temperature.  

For approximately 10,000 years before that, there was excellent correlation between solar output and global average temperature.

Prior to 10,000 years BP, this correlation ended as the Milankovich Orbital variationbecame the dominant factor. The main driver for the last period of glaciation was related to the Earth's tilt and the eccentricity of its orbit. Changes in the sun's output became a secondary factor.
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #140 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 8:22pm
 
These people are under continual disquietudes, never enjoying a minutes
peace of mind; and their disturbances proceed from causes which very
little affect the rest of mortals.  Their apprehensions arise from
several changes they dread in the celestial bodies: for instance, that
the earth, by the continual approaches of the sun towards it, must, in
course of time, be absorbed, or swallowed up; that the face of the sun,
will, by degrees, be encrusted with its own effluvia, and give no more
light to the world; that the earth very narrowly escaped a brush from the
tail of the last comet, which would have infallibly reduced it to ashes;
and that the next, which they have calculated for one-and-thirty years
hence, will probably destroy us
.  For if, in its perihelion, it should
approach within a certain degree of the sun (as by their calculations
they have reason to dread) it will receive a degree of heat ten thousand
times more intense than that of red hot glowing iron, and in its absence
from the sun, carry a blazing tail ten hundred thousand and fourteen
miles long, through which, if the earth should pass at the distance of
one hundred thousand miles from the nucleus, or main body of the comet,
it must in its passage be set on fire, and reduced to ashes: that the
sun, daily spending its rays without any nutriment to supply them, will
at last be wholly consumed and annihilated; which must be attended with
the destruction of this earth, and of all the planets that receive their
light from it.

They are so perpetually alarmed with the apprehensions of these, and the
like impending dangers, that they can neither sleep quietly in their
beds, nor have any relish for the common pleasures and amusements of
life.  When they meet an acquaintance in the morning, the first question
is about the sun's health, how he looked at his setting and rising, and
what hopes they have to avoid the stroke of the approaching comet.  This
conversation they are apt to run into with the same temper that boys
discover in delighting to hear terrible stories of spirits and
hobgoblins, which they greedily listen to, and dare not go to bed for
fear.

Jonathan Swift

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #141 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 10:26pm
 
This may surprise you, but I'm not some eccentric Cassandro trying to get you all to wear tinfoil hats.

I'm doing no more than trying to explain the science to you. This is mainstream stuff. The blogosphere has been filled with total nonsense which you are quite happy to regurgitate.

For once, Kevin Rudd was right in a recent speech that warned of the danger of what he called Climate Sceptics. In an age where people prefer the truth according to Facebook and Twitter rumours, we are in danger of being overrun by a growing idiocracy that guffaws at good hard science.

Quote:
"Formica Davis: Well it started off boring and slow with Not Sure trying to bullshit everyone with a bunch of smart talk: Blah blah blah. You gotta believe me! That part of the trial sucked! But then the Chief J. just went off. He said, Man, whatever! The guys guilty as poo! We all know that. And he sentenced his ass to one night of rehabilitation."

(From Idiocracy)

   
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Soren
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #142 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 10:41pm
 
Jonathan Swift is not on Facebook.  Nor Twitter.

Dead for 250 years, yet he is pertinent. Fancy that!! - a longer view.







Muso, in all seriousness, what bit of climate doom, presented 50 or a 100 years ago, does still hold today? Indeed, what bit of climate science of 1959 or 1909 or 1859 does still hold today?





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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #143 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 10:53pm
 
Soren wrote on Nov 7th, 2009 at 10:41pm:
Jonathan Swift is not on Facebook.  Nor Twitter.

Dead for 250 years, yet he is pertinent. Fancy that!! - a longer view.







Muso, in all seriousness, what bit of climate doom, presented 50 or a 100 years ago, does still hold today? Indeed, what bit of climate science of 1959 or 1909 or 1859 does still hold today?



I know who Jonathon Swift is. I read Gulliver's Travels when I was about 9.

Well,  the basic physics hasn't changed too much since the days of Arrhenius in the 19th Century. There is nothing difficult or controversial about the Basic Physics.

http://www.jstor.org/pss/4314542
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #144 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 10:59pm
 
Dear Sir Muso

Where is the hard evidence tying man to the current level of CO2 levels?

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #145 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 11:00pm
 
Thank you.  Read the sticky posts.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1247904929

If there is something you don't understand, please ask here.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #146 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 11:01pm
 
Off topic remark removed. Please keep to the Topic.

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #147 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 11:05pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 7th, 2009 at 11:00pm:
Thank you.  Read the sticky posts.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1247904929

If there is something you don't understand, please ask here.


So where is the irrefutable evidence that man is responsible?

You don't have any.
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #148 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 11:07pm
 
JM,

Let's keep this on topic. I would love it if somebody would actually try to follow the argument without being blinded by a personal agenda.

I won't delete any more of your posts if you promise not to make any more personal attacks.
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Discussion and Questions
Reply #149 - Nov 7th, 2009 at 11:10pm
 
Quote:
So where is the irrefutable evidence that man is responsible?

You don't have any.


There is certainly irrefutable evidence. Let's start with the carbon balance.

How accurately do you think we can measure the amount of Oil, Coal and Natural Gas that is being burnt every year?
What about Cement Production? How accurately do you think we ca measure that?
How accurately do you think we can measure the Carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere ?
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