Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Page Index Toggle Pages: 1
Send Topic Print
IPCC reports politics not science? (Read 1625 times)
Grendel
Gold Member
*****
Offline


OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male
IPCC reports politics not science?
Jul 3rd, 2009 at 12:34pm
 
http://www.ad2000.com.au/articles/2008/jun2008p13_2819.html

Man-made climate change: politics not science
Peter Finlayson


Like many of our fellow citizens, Alex Gardner depends very much for his position on man-made climate change on his faith in the reliability of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The book by Singer and Avery, published in its 2nd edition in 2007 just before the IPCC Fourth Technical Assessment Report (AR4), exposes much more evidence than space available in the March AD2000 allowed and shows that the findings in the IPCC reports do not conform to scientific orthodoxy and are not consensus documents. May I suggest that what Professor Gardner refers to as scientific orthodoxy is more correctly called political orthodoxy.

One piece of such omitted evidence was the fact that six separate sentences in an earlier draft IPCC report that cautioned against linking carbon dioxide to global warming were removed in the final report and replaced with the overarching conclusion that such a linkage is proven by the scientific data, a position which became the mantra for the alarmist lobby thereafter.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Grendel
Gold Member
*****
Offline


OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #1 - Jul 3rd, 2009 at 12:34pm
 
Climate scientist
In relation to the reports being 'consensus' documents, a letter to me from one of the 'orthodox' climate scientists who contributed to the IPCC reports states about their collation:

'The IPCC 'consensus' is a few activists who are lead authors and primary reviewers and a large number of contributors. The contributors send in their research on the basis that it will be reflected accurately but are not involved in formulating the findings or recommendations. Only about 100 scientists sent in reviews to the Draft AR4 and most of these individually sent in only about half a dozen comments relating to their own area of work or expertise. A few, like myself, sent in comments covering the Summary and Technical Overview but were largely ignored.'

Even more compelling evidence of the lack of scientific orthodoxy in the IPCC findings are the conclusions of the (March) 2008 International Conference on Climate Change held in New York, attended by 500 scientists, climatologists, academics and economists (News Weekly, 29 March 2008). (See www.heartland.org/NewYork08/newyork08.cfm

Its conclusions were largely contrary to those of the IPCC reports, which had been politicised to suit a particular alarmist agenda. This conference, free of the Green and environment lobby 'noise', and including the President of the Czech Republic, V‡clav Klaus, reinforced the dominant influence of the sun and oceans on climate.

On the 'moral' issues the conference supported initiatives to diversify energy sources and improve energy efficiency, but not to control climate. In that context, an important moral consequence of precipitously replacing cheap coal with expensive renewable sources of energy will be the negative impact on developing countries' economies and their citizens' livelihoods.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Grendel
Gold Member
*****
Offline


OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #2 - Jul 3rd, 2009 at 12:36pm
 
Omission
In relation to the omission of 'irradiance' in my article, I accept this criticism with due humility, mainly because this is part of the many uncertainties about the details of the complex climate science.

At the risk of confusing the reader, my understanding is that there is good correlation between sun spot activity and global temperatures, which has been known for a century, but the process involved is not yet understood. The IPCC's conclusion that solar irradiance has a minor influence on warming is an orthodox finding. However the IPCC AR4 omitted to adequately account for the solar-terrestrial factor, (which is where the science gets a bit 'heavy', for me anyway!)

The best way to understand this concept is to consider the earth and its atmospheric envelope as a giant evaporative cooling system. Thus, at its simplest, like the Coolgardie safe, as temperature rises, more moisture is evaporated from the oceans (and latent heat is exchanged), which ascends and condenses to form clouds, which thereby lower the surface temperature.

The calculated relationship between surface temperature rise and evaporation is well known to climate scientists. However, the IPCC, in acknowledging a relationship, chose to underestimate its cooling effect by two-thirds, presumably to ensure that the sensitivity of the climate models to carbon dioxide remains dominant.

This is another example of the data being adjusted to fit the ideology of the IPCC's politicised 'drivers'.

This piece of orthodox science highlighting the seriously incorrect rate of increase of evaporation with temperature in the IPCC models has been confirmed in two recent peer-reviewed papers, and adds to the other major flaws that have been identified in the computer models that form the basis for the IPCC's 2007 global warming projections. They explain why the Garnaut and Stern carbon dioxide economic impact analyses are grossly exaggerated.

Of course, political orthodoxy ignores these data to sustain its global hoax, just as it ignores the data that show that the pre-industrialisation climate was no more stable than it has been since.

pt1
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Grendel
Gold Member
*****
Offline


OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #3 - Jul 3rd, 2009 at 12:38pm
 
pt2

Be assured, I am very comfortable with the orthodoxy of the sceptics' science, however unpalatable it may be to Professor Gardner's position on the issue: there is just too much solid evidence to simply discard as irrelevant.

From a man-made climate change sceptics' website which likens IPCC and the alarmists to Chicken Little who warned everyone that the sky was about to fall


Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #4 - Jul 3rd, 2009 at 1:51pm
 
Hmmm trilobites were bottom feeders too.  They were also pretty primitive and unsophisticated - they basically consumed everything they could find without being picky - including all the ***t that was available on the Cambrian ocean floor. Of course, like other primitive species,  they were doomed to extinction.  Wink

Nice analogy. I think you should consider a new nickname. 'Grendel' is a bit jaded.  Trilobite is rather apt, don't you think?  
Back to top
 

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
Grendel
Gold Member
*****
Offline


OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #5 - Jul 3rd, 2009 at 2:49pm
 
no answers again eh.

How long you gonna try on this Trilobite crap...  you know only the really dumb will go along with it.

I'm glad you finally admit you have no answers and what I've been saying all along about your name-calling and ridicule in place of reason argument and fact is now blatantly there for all to see.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #6 - Jul 6th, 2009 at 4:12pm
 
There is no point. Like everything else you churn up, it comes down to a number of commonly stated fallacies. For a start, there is a complete lack of appreciation of the importance of natural variability on short time scales, the common but erroneous belief that any attribution of past climate change to solar or other forcing means that CO2 has no radiative effect, and lastly, a hopeless lack of familiarity of the basic science of detection and attribution.

They don’t even notice the contradictions in their own citations.
Back to top
 

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
Grendel
Gold Member
*****
Offline


OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #7 - Jul 6th, 2009 at 4:42pm
 
You are right there is no point...
Have fun being alarmed, praising the Emperor's clothes, etc, etc, etc...
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
tallowood
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Израиль Навсегда

Posts: 9483
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #8 - Jul 6th, 2009 at 5:51pm
 
muso, you are wrong again about extinction of primitive species this time. E.g. ants are biologically more primitive then dinosaurs  or humans yet they survived dinos and will survive nuclear wars, which will kill humans.
BTW, personal attack on your opponents discredit your environmental theories more then your opponents ever can. May be that is one of reasons why environmentalism has become so discredited lately.

Back to top
 

עַם יִשְרָאֵל חַי
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #9 - Jul 6th, 2009 at 6:00pm
 
tallowood wrote on Jul 6th, 2009 at 5:51pm:
muso, you are wrong again about extinction of primitive species this time. E.g. ants are biologically more primitive then dinosaurs  or humans yet they survived dinos and will survive nuclear wars, which will kill humans.
BTW, personal attack on your opponents discredit your environmental theories more then your opponents ever can. May be that is one of reasons why environmentalism has become so discredited lately.




However, I have no doubt that the fact that the dominant lifeforms of the time lived underwater didn't escape you, and I'm sure that you know that already.

It makes the argument about temperature differences irrelevant.

Grendel is not my opponent. There isn't even a debate in the field of climatology. The tired old arguments that he's cutting and pasting have been discredited many times before. They don't even make logical sense.

They are just getting more shrill because Copenhagen is coming up.

As for Ian Plimer, he should be prosecuted for fraud.

The errors in his book are not even subtle. It has already been shown that he lied about the source of some of his graphs.
Back to top
 

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
tallowood
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Израиль Навсегда

Posts: 9483
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #10 - Jul 6th, 2009 at 6:12pm
 
muso wrote on Jul 6th, 2009 at 6:00pm:
tallowood wrote on Jul 6th, 2009 at 5:51pm:
muso, you are wrong again about extinction of primitive species this time. E.g. ants are biologically more primitive then dinosaurs  or humans yet they survived dinos and will survive nuclear wars, which will kill humans.
BTW, personal attack on your opponents discredit your environmental theories more then your opponents ever can. May be that is one of reasons why environmentalism has become so discredited lately.



However, I have no doubt that the fact that the dominant lifeforms of the time lived underwater didn't escape you, and I'm sure that you know that already.

It makes the argument about temperature differences irrelevant.

Grendel is not my opponent. There isn't even a debate in the field of climatology. The tired old arguments that he's cutting and pasting have been discredited many times before. They don't even make logical sense.

They are just getting more shrill because Copenhagen is coming up.

As for Ian Plimer, he should be prosecuted for fraud.

The errors in his book are not even subtle.


Yes they should've never came out of water then there would not be any environmental problems created by their descendants, but now with them out and mud all over the place there isn't clear view what the argument is all about Copenhagen or not. Nobody except few care any longer, the cynicism of political component is too great and too obvious.

Back to top
 

עַם יִשְרָאֵל חַי
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #11 - Jul 7th, 2009 at 8:39am
 
tallowood wrote on Jul 6th, 2009 at 6:12pm:
Yes they should've never came out of water then there would not be any environmental problems created by their descendants, but now with them out and mud all over the place there isn't clear view what the argument is all about Copenhagen or not. Nobody except few care any longer, the cynicism of political component is too great and too obvious.



My personal view is that human civilization is worth saving -worth caring about -  but that's just me.
Back to top
 

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
tallowood
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Израиль Навсегда

Posts: 9483
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #12 - Jul 7th, 2009 at 1:16pm
 
muso wrote on Jul 7th, 2009 at 8:39am:
tallowood wrote on Jul 6th, 2009 at 6:12pm:
Yes they should've never came out of water then there would not be any environmental problems created by their descendants, but now with them out and mud all over the place there isn't clear view what the argument is all about Copenhagen or not. Nobody except few care any longer, the cynicism of political component is too great and too obvious.



My personal view is that human civilization is worth saving -worth caring about -  but that's just me.


Fair enough though if humanity is the reason of climate change then the change can't be stop without removing or modifying the reason.
With all the tropics coming may be the best chance on long ran is to to evolve back to underwater again?

Back to top
 

עַם יִשְרָאֵל חַי
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: IPCC reports politics not science?
Reply #13 - Jul 7th, 2009 at 1:43pm
 
tallowood wrote on Jul 7th, 2009 at 1:16pm:
muso wrote on Jul 7th, 2009 at 8:39am:
tallowood wrote on Jul 6th, 2009 at 6:12pm:
Yes they should've never came out of water then there would not be any environmental problems created by their descendants, but now with them out and mud all over the place there isn't clear view what the argument is all about Copenhagen or not. Nobody except few care any longer, the cynicism of political component is too great and too obvious.



My personal view is that human civilization is worth saving -worth caring about -  but that's just me.


Fair enough though if humanity is the reason of climate change then the change can't be stop without removing or modifying the reason.



I'm all for modifying  Grin


To add some context, the article that Grendel posted was from AD2000 - a journal of religious opinion. Although it was a cut and paste from a confusionalist site, it's very apt that the article is in a religion journal.

Let me try to find the original source.
Back to top
« Last Edit: Jul 8th, 2009 at 8:04am by muso »  

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
Page Index Toggle Pages: 1
Send Topic Print