Australian Politics Forum - Grendel: man cannot control the climate

Grendel

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #75 - Jul 23^rd, 2009 at 9:36pm

Oh mind reading again are we... Grin

believe me you'll never make a living at it.

wait... so any site that disagrees with your pov is a DIS information site Grin

you'd be funny if you weren't so pathetic

You don't ask hard questions and you never address anything you just ridicule and name-call. but hey a rest for that I'd look forward to.

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mozzaok Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 6741 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate Reply #76 - Jul 23^rd, 2009 at 9:39pm Good one kenny coward, you run away again Grendel. For someone who holds such strong views, you are p1ss weak when it comes to actually defending them. You never answered my question, and you never answer any of musos. Evade, avoid, abuse, it is all you are good for, it is so predictable with you.
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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate Reply #77 - Jul 23^rd, 2009 at 10:10pm I'm sorry... I thought you spoke English.
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Soren

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #78 - Jul 23^rd, 2009 at 11:25pm

Don't mean to interrupt but

Quote:

Climate change goes on. Average global temperatures are now some 0.75 °C warmer than they were 100 years ago and since the mid-1970s average global temperatures have increased at a rate of more than 0.15 °C per decade. Yet over the last 10 years temperatures have risen more slowly, causing some to claim that global warming has stopped. Here we explain why this is not the case and explains that observed changes are entirely consistent with our understanding of natural fluctuations of the climate within a trend of continuing long-term warming. The evidence is very clear that global temperatures are rising and that humans are largely responsible.

That last bit, "and that humans are largely responsible" cannot be gleened from the data. If atmospheric CO2 is the measure of human agency in temperature change then it should have been much faster in the last decade as CO2 emissions incresed much steeper than temperatures which rose more slowly.

Also - from the graph you wouldn't know that there was a massive, coal-based industrialisation in the 19th century in Europe and North America and coal fired engines and railways spread all across the globe. What was the impact of that on the data? From the graphs you'd be forgiven for thinking that the 19th century was as cold as a grave digger's arse. And what was the temperature data for the pre-industrial period?

Also - what is taken to be the 'normal' climate is merely an average of a recorded period. Is it not possible to say, on the basis of these graphs, that the climate is warming only in the sense that it is coming out of an unusually cold period (19th century), which was cold despite the massive increase in atmospheric CO2? That is, undisturbed by human CO2 emissions.

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mozzaok

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #79 - Jul 23^rd, 2009 at 11:47pm

Go to any reputable scientific site and see all those furfies you trotted out addressed Soren.
It is, quite frankly, surprising to even see anyone use them anymore, as they have all been thoroughly put to bed as denialist drivel, long ago.

However what is of more note is kenny coward's continued evasion.
Lying that a few words used as a put down somehow addresses any of the real questions posed, shows the calibre of the argument, and of the man making it, in this case both shallow, and reeking of insincerity, that borders on open deceit.

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tallowood

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #80 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 12:12am

Soren wrote on Jul 23^rd, 2009 at 11:25pm:

Don't mean to interrupt but

Quote:

Climate change goes on. Average global temperatures are now some 0.75 °C warmer than they were 100 years ago and since the mid-1970s average global temperatures have increased at a rate of more than 0.15 °C per decade. Yet over the last 10 years temperatures have risen more slowly, causing some to claim that global warming has stopped. Here we explain why this is not the case and explains that observed changes are entirely consistent with our understanding of natural fluctuations of the climate within a trend of continuing long-term warming. The evidence is very clear that global temperatures are rising and that humans are largely responsible.

That last bit, "and that humans are largely responsible" cannot be gleened from the data. If atmospheric CO2 is the measure of human agency in temperature change then it should have been much faster in the last decade as CO2 emissions incresed much steeper than temperatures which rose more slowly.

Also - from the graph you wouldn't know that there was a massive, coal-based industrialisation in the 19th century in Europe and North America and coal fired engines and railways spread all across the globe. What was the impact of that on the data? From the graphs you'd be forgiven for thinking that the 19th century was as cold as a grave digger's arse. And what was the temperature data for the pre-industrial period?

Also - what is taken to be the 'normal' climate is merely an average of a recorded period. Is it not possible to say, on the basis of these graphs, that the climate is warming only in the sense that it is coming out of an unusually cold period (19th century), which was cold despite the massive increase in atmospheric CO2? That is, undisturbed by human CO2 emissions.

"Average global temperatures are now some 0.75 °C warmer than they were 100 years ago..."

Have they used the same measurement methodology and grid 100 years ago as now or is it again rhetoric of "it was cold in the morning and warm in noon..."?

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Soren

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #81 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 12:40am

mozzaok wrote on Jul 23^rd, 2009 at 11:47pm:

Go to any reputable scientific site and see all those furfies you trotted out addressed Soren.
It is, quite frankly, surprising to even see anyone use them anymore, as they have all been thoroughly put to bed as denialist drivel, long ago.

I am not 'using' them in some scheme. Man made warming is not an open and shut case and saying so is not denialist drivel. If the atmosphere is a blanket, any amount of CO2 making that blanket denser or thicker ought to show up in warming IF CO2 is so decisive. But the century of industrialisation does not show up.

It is not my heresy that the case of antropogenic warming remains unconvincing. The theory has by now reached such complexity that the originally posited direct correlation between CO2 and warming is unsustainable. What started out as warming is now 'change'. But the desire for politically motivated control and intervention burns just as brightly.

Why? Well, the inquisitorial sentiments evident in your heretic-exposing language, like 'denialist' drivel', simply confirms that the case for antropogenic global warming is socio-political dogma and group-think for most people, dogma which even the adherents can't quite master or grasp in its detail. And I don't blame you. Best to refer to the authority of sacred texts, the 'repurtable scientific sites'. But scientific sites are miriad. Reputation, like beauty, it now seems, is in the eye of the beholder. What you mean by reputable is what you agree with. At any rate, General Motors was a reputable company a year ago. Reputations change unexpectedly.

You may call it 'denialist drivel', I think of it as resisting the Spanish Inquisition, which nowadays is anything but unexpected. What a change 30 years make in the intellectual climate!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHGOl-jfUK0

Come in again (take 459).i

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muso

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #82 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 8:22am

Soren wrote on Jul 23^rd, 2009 at 11:25pm:

Don't mean to interrupt but

Quote:

Climate change goes on. Average global temperatures are now some 0.75 °C warmer than they were 100 years ago and since the mid-1970s average global temperatures have increased at a rate of more than 0.15 °C per decade. Yet over the last 10 years temperatures have risen more slowly, causing some to claim that global warming has stopped. Here we explain why this is not the case and explains that observed changes are entirely consistent with our understanding of natural fluctuations of the climate within a trend of continuing long-term warming. The evidence is very clear that global temperatures are rising and that humans are largely responsible.

That last bit, "and that humans are largely responsible" cannot be gleened from the data. If atmospheric CO2 is the measure of human agency in temperature change then it should have been much faster in the last decade as CO2 emissions incresed much steeper than temperatures which rose more slowly.

Also - from the graph you wouldn't know that there was a massive, coal-based industrialisation in the 19th century in Europe and North America and coal fired engines and railways spread all across the globe. What was the impact of that on the data? From the graphs you'd be forgiven for thinking that the 19th century was as cold as a grave digger's arse. And what was the temperature data for the pre-industrial period?

Also - what is taken to be the 'normal' climate is merely an average of a recorded period. Is it not possible to say, on the basis of these graphs, that the climate is warming only in the sense that it is coming out of an unusually cold period (19th century), which was cold despite the massive increase in atmospheric CO2? That is, undisturbed by human CO2 emissions.

Good. I'm impressed. Wink

These are good questions (I mean that not in a patronising way). I will respond to them in some detail today and add the answers to the sticky thread for future reference.

As far as the 19th Century is concerned, when we examine the actual emission data, we'll probably find that it was several magnitudes lower than recent times. The population was also significantly lower, and the sinks (eg tropical rainforest) were much higher. I'll add numbers to that answer and address your other points later.

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« Last Edit: Jul 24^th, 2009 at 8:30am by muso »

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate Reply #83 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 12:22pm Well you should open your mind to all possibilities instead of just being rusted on to one side of the argument then eh.
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muso

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #84 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 2:15pm

Grendel wrote on Jul 24^th, 2009 at 12:22pm:

Well you should open your mind to all possibilities instead of just being rusted on to one side of the argument then eh. Cheesy

If you were to open your mind to all possibilities, you would rapidly come to the conclusion that there is no argument, because we're left with possibilities versus impossibilities.

Unfortunately the work of thousands of climatology scientists is perfectly valid. There is no valid counter argument.

In order to mount a counter argument, you need to publish - in serious climatology and scientific magazines - not economic ones.

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muso

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #85 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 2:17pm

Soren wrote:

Quote:

Also - from the graph you wouldn't know that there was a massive, coal-based industrialisation in the 19th century in Europe and North America and coal fired engines and railways spread all across the globe. What was the impact of that on the data? From the graphs you'd be forgiven for thinking that the 19th century was as cold as a grave digger's arse. And what was the temperature data for the pre-industrial period?

Soren,

World Production of coal in 1905 for example was 924 million short tons or 838 million tonnes. Oil production was minimal.

World production of coal in 2007 was 7080 million tonnes, then we had an Oil production of 78.9 million bbl.

As you can see, the rate at which we consumed these resources even in the early 20th century was down by a factor of about 8 (ok?) on today's annual consumption/production.

Yes - If we cut carbon emissions by 87.5% and went back to 1905 levels (or better - to 19th century levels), we'd definitely see a difference. Cold as a grave digger's arse? well yes, comparatively speaking.

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« Last Edit: Jul 24^th, 2009 at 3:27pm by muso »

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muso

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #86 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 2:43pm

Soren -

Quote:

That last bit, "and that humans are largely responsible" cannot be gleened from the data.(I'll call this FAQ 1. ) If atmospheric CO2 is the measure of human agency in temperature change then it should have been much faster in the last decade as CO2 emissions increased much steeper than temperatures which rose more slowly.

Part 1 (unhighlighted) is correct, but we can glean that information from things like the global carbon balance. We know how much coal and oil we burned (as I've said before, accountants keep a good track on those kinds of statistics) so we can work out how much carbon we're putting into the atmosphere.

Good. I knew I posted that basic guide for a reason. You'll find this explanation for FAQ 1, in the 'sticky section' at the top of Environment.

You'll notice that the slope of the line has levelled off slightly since 1998. This is largely due to the Strong El Nino in 1998 and the predominant La Nina in recent years. La Nina events cause an upswelling of colder water from the ocean depths, causing a temporary cooling effect on average global temperatures. We are currently in a mild El Nino, so this trend is expected to change within the next few years.

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« Last Edit: Jul 24^th, 2009 at 3:24pm by muso »

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muso

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #87 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 2:51pm

Soren wrote:

Quote:

Also - what is taken to be the 'normal' climate is merely an average of a recorded period. Is it not possible to say, on the basis of these graphs, that the climate is warming only in the sense that it is coming out of an unusually cold period (19th century), which was cold despite the massive increase in atmospheric CO2? That is, undisturbed by human CO2 emissions.

Massive increase in atmospheric CO2? - What massive increase in atmospheric CO2? It rose from around 280ppm to around 290 ppm between 1800 and 1900. (3.5%) Compare that to the period between 1950 and the present day. It rose from 300 to 385ppm (28%)

It's chalk and cheese.

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« Last Edit: Jul 24^th, 2009 at 3:10pm by muso »

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate Reply #88 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 3:34pm Graph of World Oil Production - just for completeness.
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Soren

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Re: Grendel: man cannot control the climate
Reply #89 - Jul 24^th, 2009 at 6:22pm

muso wrote on Jul 24^th, 2009 at 2:51pm:

Soren wrote:

Quote:

Also - what is taken to be the 'normal' climate is merely an average of a recorded period. Is it not possible to say, on the basis of these graphs, that the climate is warming only in the sense that it is coming out of an unusually cold period (19th century), which was cold despite the massive increase in atmospheric CO2? That is, undisturbed by human CO2 emissions.

Massive increase in atmospheric CO2? - What massive increase in atmospheric CO2? It rose from around 280ppm to around 290 ppm between 1800 and 1900. (3.5%) Compare that to the period between 1950 and the present day. It rose from 300 to 385ppm (28%)

It's chalk and cheese.

Are you telling us that 19th century industrialistaion, almost entirely fuelled by the dirtiest of coal, increased atmospheric CO2 by only 3.5% over a century?
I don't believe it.

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