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frost this morning, therefore no global warming (Read 12424 times)
mozzaok
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #45 - Jun 28th, 2009 at 3:01pm
 
You saying that you don't fall into that category Grendel?

I know you say you are left wing, but for the sake of argument, we will call you a left winger, who happens to very strongly support many ultra nationalist, right wing opinions, OK?
And if you are trying to tell me you don't get down and dirty with a bit of a "Halleluha", and a "Praise The Lord", then I will accept your word on it.
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OOPS!!! My Karma, ran over your Dogma!
 
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Grendel
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #46 - Jun 28th, 2009 at 3:44pm
 
Really and what would those opinions be?

I am no way near a right winger and even less a fundamentalist Christian.

Oh dear don't tell me you stereotyped everyone who dissents your opinion of AGW on your pathetic attempt to once more name-call and slander me?  What is the world coming to?

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mozzaok
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #47 - Jun 28th, 2009 at 4:48pm
 
Well I will accept you as the exception to my rule then Grendel.

I just get used to silly right wing bible bashers going for it with their anti-science stuff.
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freediver
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #48 - Jun 28th, 2009 at 6:15pm
 
Quote:
They say that the trend of the last 15 years is actually cooling, and that is arguably correct


I have never seen any attempt by denialists to measure this. It would be a very simple thing to do. Microsoft excel will even do it for you. Last time I checked it out, even if you did cherry pick from the hottest year till now, the trend was still warming.

Quote:
BTW the only word I'm spreading is man cannot control the climate


How odd, Grendel offering up an opinion. I think this might be worth a new thread.

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I'm also waiting for proof that man made CO2 emissions is creating dangerous warming.


The only way to prove it Grendel is to do an experiment, for example by drastically cutting our CO2 emissions and seeing if the temperature follows suit. Although of course this would still not be absolute proof, as science can never give you absolute proof. Unfortunately for you people have to manage uncertainty, not wait in vain for certainty.

Quote:
Trying to convince either side of the climate change debate that they are wrong is impossible - so compromise to ensure that we are safeguarded for the future.


Not true Mantra. Over the last decade or two, the percentage of our population that falls into the 'denialist' category has fallen from the vast majority to only a small minority that has obvious trouble with the logic in their argument. That is why, rather than mounting a serious argument, just about all we see from the denialist camp these days are various versions of the title of this thread.

Quote:
I am no way near a right winger


So how would you categorise yourself Grendel? Tree hugging hippy?
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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.
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pjb05
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #49 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 8:16am
 
Here's a review of Prof Pilmers book. Note Paul Sheehan of the SMH has been promoting AGW in his writings up until now.

Beware the climate of conformity
Paul Sheehan

April 13, 2009

Page 1 of 3

What I am about to write questions much of what I have written in this space, in numerous columns, over the past five years. Perhaps what I have written can withstand this questioning. Perhaps not. The greater question is, am I - and you - capable of questioning our own orthodoxies and intellectual habits? Let's see.

The subject of this column is not small. It is a book entitled Heaven And Earth, which will be published tomorrow. It has been written by one of Australia's foremost Earth scientists, Professor Ian Plimer. He is a confronting sort of individual, polite but gruff, courteous but combative. He can write extremely well, and Heaven And Earth is a brilliantly argued book by someone not intimidated by hostile majorities or intellectual fashions.

The book's 500 pages and 230,000 words and 2311 footnotes are the product of 40 years' research and a depth and breadth of scholarship. As Plimer writes: "An understanding of climate requires an amalgamation of astronomy, solar physics, geology, geochronology, geochemistry, sedimentology, tectonics, palaeontology, palaeoecology, glaciology, climatology, meteorology, oceanography, ecology, archaeology and history."

The most important point to remember about Plimer is that he is Australia's most eminent geologist. As such, he thinks about time very differently from most of us. He takes the long, long view. He looks at climate over geological, archaeological, historical and modern time. He writes: "Past climate changes, sea-level changes and catastrophes are written in stone."

Much of what we have read about climate change, he argues, is rubbish, especially the computer modelling on which much current scientific opinion is based, which he describes as "primitive". Errors and distortions in computer modelling will be exposed in time. (As if on cue, the United Nations' peak scientific body on climate change was obliged to make an embarrassing admission last week that some of its computers models were wrong.)
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pjb05
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #50 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 8:18am
 
Plimer does not dispute the dramatic flux of climate change - and this column is not about Australia's water debate - but he fundamentally disputes most of the assumptions and projections being made about the current causes, mostly led by atmospheric scientists, who have a different perspective on time. "It is little wonder that catastrophist views of the future of the planet fall on fertile pastures. The history of time shows us that depopulation, social disruption, extinctions, disease and catastrophic droughts take place in cold times … and life blossoms and economies boom in warm times. Planet Earth is dynamic. It always changes and evolves. It is currently in an ice age."

If we look at the last 6 million years, the Earth was warmer than it is now for 3 million years. The ice caps of the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland are geologically unusual. Polar ice has only been present for less than 20 per cent of geological time. What follows is an intense compression of the book's 500 pages and all their provocative arguments and conclusions:

Is dangerous warming occurring? No.

Is the temperature range observed in the 20th century outside the range of normal variability? No.

The Earth's climate is driven by the receipt and redistribution of solar energy. Despite this crucial relationship, the sun tends to be brushed aside as the most important driver of climate. Calculations on supercomputers are primitive compared with the complex dynamism of the Earth's climate and ignore the crucial relationship between climate and solar energy.

"To reduce modern climate change to one variable, CO2, or a small proportion of one variable - human-induced CO2 - is not science. To try to predict the future based on just one variable (CO2) in extraordinarily complex natural systems is folly. Yet when astronomers have the temerity to show that climate is driven by solar activities rather than CO2 emissions, they are dismissed as dinosaurs undertaking the methods of old-fashioned science." Continued...

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pjb05
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #51 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 8:20am
 
Over time, the history of CO2 content in the atmosphere has been far higher than at present for most of time. Atmospheric CO2 follows temperature rise. It does not create a temperature rise. CO2 is not a pollutant. Global warming and a high CO2 content bring prosperity and longer life.

The hypothesis that human activity can create global warming is extraordinary because it is contrary to validated knowledge from solar physics, astronomy, history, archaeology and geology. "But evidence no longer matters. And any contrary work published in peer-reviewed journals is just ignored. We are told that the science on human-induced global warming is settled. Yet the claim by some scientists that the threat of human-induced global warming is 90 per cent certain (or even 99 per cent) is a figure of speech. It has no mathematical or evidential basis."

Observations in nature differ markedly from the results generated by nearly two dozen computer-generated climate models. These climate models exaggerate the effects of human CO2 emissions into the atmosphere because few of the natural variables are considered. Natural systems are far more complex than computer models.

The setting up by the UN of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988 gave an opportunity to make global warming the main theme of environmental groups. "The IPCC process is related to environmental activism, politics and opportunism. It is unrelated to science. Current zeal around human-induced climate change is comparable to the certainty professed by Creationists or religious fundamentalists."

Ian Plimer is not some isolated gadfly. He is a prize-winning scientist and professor. The back cover of Heaven And Earth carries a glowing endorsement from the President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus, who now holds the rotating presidency of the European Union. Numerous rigorous scientists have joined Plimer in dissenting from the prevailing orthodoxy.

Heaven And Earth is an evidence-based attack on conformity and orthodoxy, including my own, and a reminder to respect informed dissent and beware of ideology subverting evidence.

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skippy
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #52 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 9:13am
 
mozzaok wrote on Jun 28th, 2009 at 1:55pm:
Yes I know, Grendel, just my paranoid delusions.
I wonder if we polled those here, how many would fall into line?
Right Wing?
Born Again Type?

Unfortunately, in the US, where most of this denialist garbage sprang from, there is no shortage of folk that fall into these categories, but fortunately not even all of them fall for the denialist line of bull.

This is so right, Fielding is a bible basher, climate confusionalist,and all round dangerous dude. I think these confusionalist bible bashers should be rounded up and kept in a safe place away from the mainstream population, they are as dangerous as any terrorist,in my opinion worse than terrorists.
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muso
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #53 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 12:04pm
 
Plimer's book would be good if it were true.

What the reviewer doesn't mention is that there has been a virtual avalanche of reviews by leading scientists, and they all say very similar things about it.

- and they are not impressed. The errors are fundamental, and the treament of astronomy is bizarre to put it mildly.

This guy is well past his use-by date. His ideas are decidedly "on the nose".

If he's right, we'll have to change most of the laws of physics for a start.
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freediver
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #54 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 1:58pm
 
PJ, that so-called 'expert' doesn't have a clue.

Quote:
but he fundamentally disputes most of the assumptions and projections being made about the current causes, mostly led by atmospheric scientists, who have a different perspective on time. "It is little wonder that catastrophist views of the future of the planet fall on fertile pastures. The history of time shows us that depopulation, social disruption, extinctions, disease and catastrophic droughts take place in cold times
…

Odd for someone who bleats on about time scales to put social disruption in there with extinction.

Quote:
Planet Earth is dynamic. It always changes and evolves. It is currently in an ice age."


No it isn't.

Quote:
The Earth's climate is driven by the receipt and redistribution of solar energy.


If it wasn't for the greenhouse effect the whole planet would be below freezing point.

Quote:
Despite this crucial relationship, the sun tends to be brushed aside as the most important driver of climate.


No it isn't. It is a crucial part of the theory. For someone who claims to have a valid scientific criticism of climate change theory he shows remarkanly little understanding of it.

Quote:
"To reduce modern climate change to one variable, CO2, or a small proportion of one variable - human-induced CO2 - is not science.


Saying that the greenhouse effect influences climate is not the same thing as saying that it is the only factor that drives climate. Plimer completely misrepresents climate change theory by suggesting that the sun is brushed aside. He is building a giant strawman.
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muso
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #55 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 3:07pm
 
A recent comment by Professor Kurt Lambeck, president of the Australian Academy of Science sums it up nicely:

If this had been written by an honours student, I would have failed it with the comment: You have obviously trawled through a lot of material but the critical analysis is missing. Supporting arguments and unsupported arguments in the literature are not distinguished or properly referenced, and you have left the impression that you have not developed an understanding of the processes involved. Rewrite!

I would then identify a number of specific issues which, while in isolation could be seen as minor, collectively indicate carelessness at best, and at worst an attempt to undermine the integrity of the science case.....
........................
....The science community has the responsibility to provide the best evidence to help our policymakers reach conclusions that are founded in science, that are based on our best current understanding. This is in the interests of society as a whole, not only of particular interest groups. Spreading confusion through poorly argued science does not help in addressing this question.

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Grendel
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #56 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 6:00pm
 
http://sciencespeak.com/

No evidence....  Grin
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muso
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #57 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 6:33pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 29th, 2009 at 6:00pm:
http://sciencespeak.com/

No evidence....  Grin


Dave needs to learn the basics too.
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Grendel
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #58 - Jun 29th, 2009 at 6:59pm
 
ROTFLMAO...
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muso
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Re: frost this morning, therefore no global warming
Reply #59 - Jun 30th, 2009 at 2:30pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 29th, 2009 at 6:59pm:
ROTFLMAO...

- and get a real job. You see, there is overwhelming evidence.

- I'll let Google take over for once. This site explains it as well as I can:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htm

Quote:
Expected warming

Many lines of evidence show that the Earth has in fact warmed by an amount consistent with theory. Some aspects of the warming are unique to CO2 warming - the carbon "fingerprint".

    * Surface weather station measurements
    * Satellite measurements show that the troposphere is warming
    * The stratosphere is cooling as predicted by anthropogenic global warming theory (this cannot be explained by solar variability)
    * Temperatures at the ocean surface and at various ocean depths show warming as far down as 1500 meters
    * Sea level rise
    * Gravitometric measurements of Greenland and Antarctica show net ice loss
    * Sea-ice loss in the Arctic is dramatically accelerating
    * Acceleration of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, particularly within the last few years.
    * The rise of the tropopause
    * Poleward migration of species
    * Increased intensity of hurricanes as expected from rising sea surface temperatures
    * Accelerating decline of glaciers throughout the world
    * Rise in temperatures at greater depths in the permafrost
    * Rapid expansion of thermokarst lakes throughout parts of Siberia, Canada and Alaska
    * Changes in ocean circulation as predicted by climate models, for example, with temperatures rising more quickly overland
    * Disintegration of permafrost coastlines in the arctic
    * Changes in the altitude of the stratosphere
    * An energy imbalance - the earth is receiving more energy than it emits (Hansen 2005)
    * Poleward movement of the jet streams (Archer 2008, Seidel 2007, Fu 2006)
    * Widening of the tropical belt (Seidel 2007, Fu 2006)
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« Last Edit: Jun 30th, 2009 at 2:36pm by muso »  

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