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Question: Who is correct about temperatures trends?

Grendel    
  2 (28.6%)
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology    
  5 (71.4%)




Total votes: 7
« Last Modified by: muso on: Jun 16th, 2009 at 10:31am »

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Astroturfing at its best (Read 6849 times)
Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #15 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 2:50pm
 
I'm sorry I didn't think there were time limits on trends...  as I have said b4...  how many years are you going to settle for.  Another 10 andother 20 another 30 another 40...  100 years 1000 years...  how many times will you keep moving the goal posts.

I've been very patient and waited 10 years b4 mentioning there is a trend.  Oh and guess what...  there is.  And in another 10 years and every year in between I'll be pointing it out to you.

Oh and BTW global average temps are recorded on a graph every year not every 10.  

One day you'll learn to read and understand graphs.  I hope  Roll Eyes

Oh and here let me quote the article again for you...

Quote:
New scientific studies suggest a trend that may have started in the late 1990s. The earth may be cooling.


Afraid you'll have to get with the NEW scientific....  I note the words trend and cooling which I have already highlighted for you.  English cannot be that difficult for you.

NOTE THE USE OF THE DATE 1990S  GET IT YET?  HOW MUCH SIMPLER OR CLEARER CAN WE MAKE IT FOR YOU.

Quote:
The Hadley Centre for Climate Change, part of the UK Met Office, tracks global temperature and shows a big drop in global temperature anomalies since January 2007. Based on the HadCRUT3 system of observed temperatures, global surface temperature anomalies have been trending down since 2001. January 2008 had the coldest anomaly since 1995.


HADCRUT...  GET IT?  TRENDING DOWN?  GET IT?  SINCE WHEN?????

nOT LAST MONTH BOYO... Cheesy
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« Last Edit: Jun 15th, 2009 at 3:02pm by Grendel »  
 
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #16 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 4:10pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 15th, 2009 at 2:50pm:
Oh and BTW global average temps are recorded on a graph every year not every 10.  

One day you'll learn to read and understand graphs.  I hope  Roll Eyes


That part may be the case - however, in order to make any sense of it, we need to take moving averages.  Annual data is too unreliable.

Take NOAA, NASA GISS and Hadcrut data. Now superimpose annual data - see how different they are if you just take the data on a year by year basis? There is no point in trending raw annual data.

Climate is longterm. We need to take at least 4-5 year moving averages to show any trend. Monthly temperatures are even more meaningless. Once you actually take moving averages, the different datasets start to match up. Actually HadCrut doesn't show such a pronounced rising trend because it misses a lot of polar data. This is not deliberate - it's just a consequence of having fewer resources.

By the way, I think all the geologists in Australia are jumping on the bandwagon to have a go at Ian Plimer. This time it's David Karoly from the school of Earth Sciences in Melbourne.

Given the errors, the non-science, and the nonsense in this book, it should be classified as science fiction in any library that wastes its funds buying it. The book can then be placed on the shelves alongside Michael Crichton's State of Fear, another science fiction book about climate change with many footnotes. The only difference is that there are fewer scientific errors in State of Fear.

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2009/2593166.htm


Do you want to read what Kurt Lambeck said about it?

Today Professor Kurt Lambeck, president of the Australian Academy of Science, discusses Professor Ian Plimer's book Heaven and Earth.

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/ockhamsrazor/stories/2009/2589206.htm

Spreading confusion through poorly argued science does not help in addressing this question.
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« Last Edit: Jun 16th, 2009 at 9:49am by muso »  

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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #17 - Jun 15th, 2009 at 4:32pm
 
You just cant accept it can you?

oh dear abandoned by HADCRUT....  what shall I do?

hello?  hello? is anybody home?

Get with it Muso...  1+1+1+  etc =10  the trend is DOWNWARDS
I've told you.
Other people I've cited have told you
The data tells you
the graphs show you

Yet still you choose to live in denial... 

The trend IS downwards...  repeat after me...  the trend is downwards.

Sheesh.

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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #18 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 9:46am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 15th, 2009 at 4:32pm:
You just cant accept it can you?

oh dear abandoned by HADCRUT....  what shall I do?

hello?  hello? is anybody home?

Get with it Muso...  1+1+1+  etc =10  the trend is DOWNWARDS
I've told you.
Other people I've cited have told you
The data tells you
the graphs show you

Yet still you choose to live in denial...  

The trend IS downwards...  repeat after me...  the trend is downwards.

Sheesh.



What are you talking about? The graph was your precious Hadcrut.

Why this obsession with what is probably the least representative of all worldwide global temperature datasets?

Read the link that I provided before. The trend is not downwards unless you cherry pick the data. 

Talking about trends in climate for an 8 year period is a nonsense.
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #19 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 10:03am
 
Is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology astroturfing too? Format might  be a little strange.  

WAITING FOR GLOBAL COOLING
by
Robert Fawcett and David Jones
National Climate Centre
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Melbourne, Australia
April 2008
Corresponding author:
Dr David Jones
National Climate Centre
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Vic 3001
Tel: 03 9669 4085
Email: d.jones@bom.gov.au

Summary

There is very little justification for asserting that global warming has gone away over the past ten years, not least because the linear trend in globally-averaged annual mean temperatures (the standard yardstick) over the period 1998-2007 remains upward. While 1998 was the world’s warmest year in the surface-based instrumental record up to that point in time, 2005 was equally warm and in some data sets surpassed 1998. A substantial contribution to the record warmth of 1998 came from the very strong El Niño of 1997/98 and, when the annual data are adjusted for this short-term effect (to take out El Niño’s warming influence), the warming trend is even more obvious.

Because of the year-to-year variations in globally-averaged annual mean temperatures, about ten years are required for an underlying trend to emerge from the “noise” of those year-toyear fluctuations. Hence, the fact that 2006 and 2007 were cooler than 2005, is nowhere near enough data to clearly establish a cooling trend.

Global warming stopped in 1998. Global temperatures have remained static since then, in spite of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Global temperatures have cooled since 1998. Because 2006 and 2007 were cooler than 2005, a global cooling trend has established itself.

All these statements, and variations on them, have been confidently asserted in the international and Australian media in the past year or so, but the data do not support them.
2
Data
We use here three of the most prominent globally-averaged annual mean temperature anomaly1 data sets, one British and two American. Northern and southern hemisphere data sets are also available from these three sources. Australian (national) annual temperature data
have been obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology.............


(from Fawcett,  Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
December 2007) Edit - added full reference.
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« Last Edit: Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:37am by muso »  

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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #20 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 10:25am
 
Yeah 10 years is enough to see a trend....  and the trend is DOWN...  so much denial must make you and your compatriots heads ache.

here let me try to dumb down something for you...

If you draw a line from say 1970 to the latest yearly temp the trend is UP.  Which is what you keep citing ad infinitum ad nauseum...

But..

If you draw a line from 1998 to the latest...  the trend is DOWN...  why do you and you cohorts and dumbos like you just quoted just admit the truth instead of lying about it so blatantly.
Anyone not blind can see the difference.
And apparently 10 years is fine to note a trend...  woo hoo.

SO LET ME TYPE THIS SLOWLY FOR YOU...  SINCE 1998 THE OVERALL TREND IS D O W N...

nOW i'VE TOLD YOU THAT AND EXPLAINED IT SEVERAL TIMES...
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #21 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 10:31am
 
My cohorts now include the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Do you want me to quote some more authorities? I can if you like. Then it will be Grendel versus the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the British Met Office, NOAA, NASA, Météo-France, and the World Meteorological Organization.

Ok Don Quijote de la Mancha - We'll put it to a poll - not that polls are proof or anything.

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« Last Edit: Jun 16th, 2009 at 10:42am by muso »  

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Grendel
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #22 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 10:46am
 
No don't bother just stick to the name calling and ridicule...  that's your strength.

I've explained things simply and often enough for you..  denialist.  Grin
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muso
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #23 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:12am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 16th, 2009 at 10:46am:
No don't bother just stick to the name calling and ridicule...  that's your strength.

I've explained things simply and often enough for you..  denialist.  Grin



You've yet to explain what you think I'm denying.   Why don't you just email Dr Jones and tell him he's wrong?

I gave you his email address.
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« Last Edit: Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:24am by muso »  

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locutius
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #24 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:24am
 
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is "Da BOM". Word!
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I dream of a better tomorrow, where chickens can cross the road and not be questioned about their motives.
 
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #25 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:29am
 
It is pathetic to go back to this garbage, to even try and argue that every year must be hotter than the year before, to accept Global Warming, is just reducing the argument to childish naivity.

The inconsistency of just what the denialists are arguing against becomes befuddling in itself.

1998 hottest year ever? Why? CO2?
No Way Jose, says the denialists, it is?
Solar activity.
Of course the fact that science disagrees with this contention does not deter them from repeating the lie ad infinitum.

Of course the fact that nine or ten of the hottest years ever recorded have been during this "cooling" period since 1998 does not rate a mention by denialists.

The "COOL" year of 2008, tied with 2001 as the eighth hottest year ever recorded.
2005 tied with 1998 as the hottest ever.
The 12 years from 1998 onwards include the ten hottest years ever recorded.
The decade from 1998 to 2007 was the hottest decade ever recorded.

Quite a cooling trend there Grendel.

Oh, you want to forget that stuff, and start again starting, Now, no Now, how about Now?

Push the start and finish points of where you want to measure from, or to, around, and I am sure you can find cooling periods in every set of data ever recorded, but it takes a denialist to then call that "evidence"


So, if you can tear yourself away from the denialist propaganda for a minute, try reading this brief scientific explanation Grendel.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Is-the-climate-warming-or-cooling.html

If we look at the models, we will probably not see the trend change upwards again until 2010, so then you can start blaming the sun, or something else again, but you just need to hold out until the next period of declining temps, to start rehashing this particular line of BS.

The trouble is that each decline in temperature, will be a "Temporary" decline from a new "RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE", and despite the protestations of the belligerently and wilfully ignorant, Global Warming will continue on, unabated, and unaddressed, if this lunatic fringe of spoilers have their way.

I could ask that if the period from 2010 to 2016 does happen to provide new record high temperatures, would you desist from rehashing this particularly silly line of denialist BS?
I think we both can predict an accurate answer to that one can't we Grendel?
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OOPS!!! My Karma, ran over your Dogma!
 
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #26 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:45am
 
ROTFLMAO

hONESTLY mOZZ YOU HAVE TO STOP LISTENING TO mUSO

Not arguing about every year before  gotta be hotter etc.  

Quite the contrary...  I'm talking trend.

Your last post is full of crap which shows you don't understand the arguments.  So if you could please don't comment or make up stuff ok.

Hottest decade...  ? Well Mozz if you are starting from a high point and trending down it'll still be hot for a while statistically speaking.  (You do understand that don't you?)

It aint rocket science Mozz.  do try harder.  Your arguments are spurious and shallow.
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #27 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:49am
 
mozzaok wrote on Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:29am:
It is pathetic to go back to this garbage....


Some good points Mozza.
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #28 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 12:00pm
 
Really?  what were they?
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Re: Astroturfing at its best
Reply #29 - Jun 16th, 2009 at 12:32pm
 
Professor Kurt Lambeck, president of the Australian Academy of Science

Quote:
It is important to recognise that scientists are not consensus animals. We are all driven by our own demons: the satisfaction of being able to understand a particularly complex question, a desire to use science to improve the human condition; a search for recognition and fame and the next Nobel prize or a search for notoriety in the public gallery. Thus the concept that hundreds of researchers are conspiring to defraud the world's policy-makers requires a level of conspiracy theory that not even Dan Brown has reached.


Even for those of us that have pedestrian - average understanding of the scientific diciplines involved should understand this comment alone as common sense. Much of the other science at a general level is not insurmountable for the layman.

Much of the very detailed and complementary data does require a choice of where you confidence lies. Which does not mean that I expect the pro-warming science or statistics to be 100% accurate or understood. But I expect that with any science that is still learning, that being all of them.

From what I can understand Grendal, the denialist camp is the one you are sitting in.


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I dream of a better tomorrow, where chickens can cross the road and not be questioned about their motives.
 
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