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Cooling not warming... (Read 25750 times)
Grendel
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #150 - Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:11pm
 
rotflmao

I can read graphs apparently you cant.

Honestly do you think anyone with even 1/2 a brain is gonna fall for the yellow line con you are trying to pull.

How dumb do you think everyone is?

Your line slopes up from left to right, from the origin point to the end point.
Draw one now from 1998 to the end point which way does it slope?  Cheesy

Now as I asked before...  fess up, be honest.

And I haven't even mentioned the "Simulated Temperatures"  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grinpuhlease lets just stick with the real stuff eh.  Roll Eyes
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muso
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #151 - Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:21pm
 
... and the rationale? or is this just another appeal to authority without an actual argument again?

Well if that's what it has sunk to, I see your Freeman Dyson and I raise you James Lovelock,  Raymond Pierrehumbert, Stephen Schneider, Kevin E. Trenberth and Peter Rayner.

All of the above authorities are climatologists, and they are all published climatologists with real arguments - not just "I don't buy it".

If you want to study Climatology in Australia, Monash University have a very good Atmospheric Science programme.


http://www.arts.monash.edu/ges/research/climate/index.php

Soren - Did you think the thick yellow line was going downwards since 1998 too?
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muso
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #152 - Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:26pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:11pm:
rotflmao

I can read graphs apparently you cant.

Honestly do you think anyone with even 1/2 a brain is gonna fall for the yellow line con you are trying to pull.

How dumb do you think everyone is?

Your line slopes up from left to right, from the origin point to the end point.
Draw one now from 1998 to the end point which way does it slope?  Cheesy

Now as I asked before...  fess up, be honest.

And I haven't even mentioned the "Simulated Temperatures"  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grinpuhlease lets just stick with the real stuff eh.  Roll Eyes


Good. I have your attention and you're starting to think instead of blindly cutting and pasting - Now please provide a graph that illustrates your point, Grendel, and quote the dataset this time.

You can't use annual means for the simple reason that there is too much variability at the one year timescale. You need to use at least 4 year means. In the first graph, use the red line, which uses 5 year means.

We're talking about climate here, not annual variation.
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Soren
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #153 - Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:43pm
 
muso wrote on Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:21pm:

Soren - Did you think the thick yellow line was going downwards since 1998 too?


Which way yellow lines go does not excite me. I have no argument about temperature changes in certain parts of the globe, over the whole globe or what have you. Happens all the time is my my guess. I just don't but the antropomorphic climate change baloney.


http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1242713385/102#102


And all the Bob Brown and Al Gore of this world care only about the antropomorphic bit. It is a political argument to shackle, hinder and undermine. It is an antropophobic argument, like all its predecessors.

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Grendel
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #154 - Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:51pm
 
ROTFLMAO
I'm using 10 years goober....

You are a goose...

I've been waiting for you to try that one on for ages now and its as dumb if not dumber than your original crap.

In another 10 years when the trend is still downwards and 10 ten years after that will you eventually concede you got it wrong or will you move the goal posts so that the start point is in an Ice Age where the temperatures are negative and your graph still slopes upwards.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Since 1998 the TREND has been downwards...  pretty simple really...  just admit that's true.

I don't expect an apology from a hypocrite and liar.
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Happy
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #155 - Jun 8th, 2009 at 6:41pm
 
muso wrote on Jun 2nd, 2009 at 2:17pm:
Here you can see the effects of the Solar cycle on Solar irradiance. Look at the bottom 3 graphs.

You can see the regular changes amounting to about 2Wm-2. That's about 0.14% fluctuation, which is hardly substantial.
Incidentally, do you see how little the output of the sun has changed since 1978?




In a scale of Sun's output maybe it is substantial:
Quote:
New Scientist 4 April 2009, page25

“The sunlight landing on Earth’s surface each day totals a whopping 120,000 terrawats, nearly 7,000 times the power currently used by all humans”




Comes out that humans use about 17 terrawats a day.

If Sun’s energy output fluctuates by 0.01% either way we get 12 terrawats more or less, depending which way it goes.

Hence lack of spots that lower the output of Sun’s energy can equal to all human activities many times over, ... interesting


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muso
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #156 - Jun 9th, 2009 at 12:27pm
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 7th, 2009 at 9:51pm:
ROTFLMAO
I'm using 10 years goober....

You are a goose...

I've been waiting for you to try that one on for ages now and its as dumb if not dumber than your original crap.

In another 10 years when the trend is still downwards and 10 ten years after that will you eventually concede you got it wrong or will you move the goal posts so that the start point is in an Ice Age where the temperatures are negative and your graph still slopes upwards.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Since 1998 the TREND has been downwards...  pretty simple really...  just admit that's true.

I don't expect an apology from a hypocrite and liar.



I'm not sure what a goober is? Is that somebody who hasn't heard of using a simple thing like running averages to determine a trend?

Do you need a tutorial?
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muso
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #157 - Jun 9th, 2009 at 12:31pm
 
Happy wrote on Jun 8th, 2009 at 6:41pm:
muso wrote on Jun 2nd, 2009 at 2:17pm:
Here you can see the effects of the Solar cycle on Solar irradiance. Look at the bottom 3 graphs.

You can see the regular changes amounting to about 2Wm-2. That's about 0.14% fluctuation, which is hardly substantial.
Incidentally, do you see how little the output of the sun has changed since 1978?




In a scale of Sun's output maybe it is substantial:
Quote:
New Scientist 4 April 2009, page25

“The sunlight landing on Earth’s surface each day totals a whopping 120,000 terrawats, nearly 7,000 times the power currently used by all humans”




Comes out that humans use about 17 terrawats a day.

If Sun’s energy output fluctuates by 0.01% either way we get 12 terrawats more or less, depending which way it goes.

Hence lack of spots that lower the output of Sun’s energy can equal to all human activities many times over, ... interesting




Happy,

You'll have to explain that a bit more. The key factor is not the energy expended, but the CO2 (etc) released. All the heat comes from the Sun. As we add more CO2 to the atmosphere, it changes the heat distribution in the atmosphere, causing the troposphere to warm. Compared to the energy provided by the sun, human energy production is tiny. You've got that bit right.

I'm not sure if you were making a point beyond that, but at least you're trying to think it through.

Nobody was ever talking about the direct heat from Human energy use.
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Happy
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #158 - Jun 9th, 2009 at 1:33pm
 
muso wrote on Jun 9th, 2009 at 12:31pm:
Happy,

You'll have to explain that a bit more. The key factor is not the energy expended, but the CO2 (etc) released. All the heat comes from the Sun. As we add more CO2 to the atmosphere, it changes the heat distribution in the atmosphere, causing the troposphere to warm. Compared to the energy provided by the sun, human energy production is tiny. You've got that bit right.

I'm not sure if you were making a point beyond that, but at least you're trying to think it through.

Nobody was ever talking about the direct heat from Human energy use.


Problem could be if instead of loudspeaker global warmers group, global coolers were right.

Prolonged lack of spots on the Sun could lead toward next overdue ice age.
Deficit of energy received from the Sun could be partially compensated by CO2 emitted ….

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muso
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #159 - Jun 9th, 2009 at 3:51pm
 
Happy wrote on Jun 9th, 2009 at 1:33pm:
muso wrote on Jun 9th, 2009 at 12:31pm:
Happy,

You'll have to explain that a bit more. The key factor is not the energy expended, but the CO2 (etc) released. All the heat comes from the Sun. As we add more CO2 to the atmosphere, it changes the heat distribution in the atmosphere, causing the troposphere to warm. Compared to the energy provided by the sun, human energy production is tiny. You've got that bit right.

I'm not sure if you were making a point beyond that, but at least you're trying to think it through.

Nobody was ever talking about the direct heat from Human energy use.


Problem could be if instead of loudspeaker global warmers group, global coolers were right.

Prolonged lack of spots on the Sun could lead toward next overdue ice age.
Deficit of energy received from the Sun could be partially compensated by CO2 emitted ….



Well it ain't going to happen. Solar Cycle 24 has already started. We've already had the solar magnetic field reversal, since the new sunspots were reverse polarity.  Besides, we had virtually no sunspots in the past couple of years, and it didn't exactly make a lot of difference.

Are we going to have another Maunder minimum? I don't think so.
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Happy
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #160 - Jun 9th, 2009 at 4:19pm
 

Quote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/09/2593268.htm?section=justin
From ABC 9 Jun. 09
COMBET WON'T GUARANTEE FIELDING'S ACCESS TO SCIENTISTS
By Online parliamentary correspondent Emma Rodgers

Climate Change Assistant Minister Greg Combet will not say whether he will allow Family First Senator Steve Fielding to speak with Government scientists over the causes of global warming.

After spending a week in the United States on a fact-finding mission, Senator Fielding says he now has doubts over whether human activity is the primary cause of climate change.
Senator Fielding wants the Government to explore whether solar flares could be a major driver of climate change and wants to talk the issue over with Government scientists.
With the Coalition refusing to back its carbon trading scheme before climate change talks in December, the Government is relying on the crossbench senators to get it through the Senate by the end of the month.

But Mr Combet will not say whether he will give Senator Fielding access to government scientists.
"We don't discuss these things through the media, with all due respect. We'll sit down with Senator Fielding and go through the issues," he told The World Today.
Mr Combet says the Government remains determined to get the legislation passed despite Senator Fielding's doubts.

"One thing that we are determined about, that shouldn't be underestimated, is to get this carbon pollution reduction scheme through because we do accept the science," he said.
"The science is in on this issue from the Government's standpoint. Global warming is a reality."
Australia's chief scientist Professor Penny Sackett says the science is clear that greenhouse gases are a major cause of climate change.

"While there is some discussion about just exactly how much the changes in the sun's activity might affect global warming, all of the estimates that are considered in the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] indicate that it's considerably below that caused by other effects - including that of greenhouse gases," she told Radio National.
"What we're seeing now is an unprecedented change and its primary cause is due to greenhouse gas emissions."


He might be wrong like me, but not giving “Senator Fielding access to government scientists” could be unnecessary water on conspiracy wheel.
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Grendel
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #161 - Jun 9th, 2009 at 4:28pm
 
ROTFLMAO

So when you gonna get lessons in reading graphs Muso?

Cant refute cant debate ...  you got big problems.

Cant admit the TRUTH!!!!!!
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muso
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #162 - Jun 12th, 2009 at 8:25am
 
Happy wrote on Jun 9th, 2009 at 4:19pm:
He might be wrong like me, but not giving “Senator Fielding access to government scientists” could be unnecessary water on conspiracy wheel.


If you ask me, it would be a big mistake if they didn't try to explain it to him.
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muso
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #163 - Jun 12th, 2009 at 8:26am
 
Grendel wrote on Jun 9th, 2009 at 4:28pm:
ROTFLMAO

So when you gonna get lessons in reading graphs Muso?

Cant refute cant debate ...  you got big problems.

Cant admit the TRUTH!!!!!!


Sigh  Roll Eyes

In statistics, a moving average, also called rolling average, rolling mean or running average, is a type of finite impulse response filter used to analyze a set of data points by creating a series of averages of different subsets of the full data set. A moving average is not a single number, but it is a set of numbers, each of which is the average of the corresponding subset of a larger set of data points. A moving average may also use unequal weights for each data value in the subset to emphasize particular values in the subset.

A moving average is commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. The threshold between short-term and long-term depends on the application, and the parameters of the moving average will be set accordingly.
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Happy
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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #164 - Jun 12th, 2009 at 10:36am
 

While ago couple of scientists from Japan run computer model on climate change and they came to conclusion that up to 10 years melting icecaps would actually cause temporary cooling effect.

(Roughly 1 gram of ice at 0 C temperature needs about 80 calories to become 1 gram of water at 0 C)

Should their model be right, current seemingly cooling could be just model playing itself out in reality.

Later part of that model would bring catastrophic temperature rises after icecaps are gone.

The only problem is that Southern icecap is actually shrinking in some parts and increasing in thickness in other parts of Antarctica.
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