Australian Politics Forum - Cooling not warming...

skippy

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #105 - May 27^th, 2009 at 4:54pm

Grendel wrote on May 27^th, 2009 at 3:19pm:

Running to cheersquad bozos like skippy is hardly doing you any good.
he doesn't even read whats written and when he infrequently does its only one side of the argument.

So BOB CARTER... address the person not some other person.

sheesh... basic debating skills go right out the window with you eh hypocrite.

Al Gore Mr credibility for you... eh? Whats' that j-curve boy. How many mistakes in an Inconvenient lie?

On the contrary, I read most posts, I skim over the obvious right whinge loony posts, like what you write, but still find a need to correct your mistakes. Roll Eyes

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« Last Edit: May 27^th, 2009 at 4:59pm by N/A »

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Grendel

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #106 - May 29^th, 2009 at 12:12pm

Now where were we?
Oh yes...

more dissent from people involved with the IPCC

http://www.nzcpr.com/guest147.htm

So, I am a climate realist because the available evidence indicates that climate change is predominantly, if not entirely, natural. It occurs mostly in response to variations in solar heating of the oceans, and the consequences this has for the rest of the Earth’s climate system. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis runaway catastrophic climate change due to human activities.

and...

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=10fe77b0-802a-23ad-4df1-fc38ed4f85e3

The over 700 dissenting scientists are now more than 13 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.

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Soren

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #107 - May 29^th, 2009 at 9:05pm

A true scientist in government? Quelle scandale! Mon dieu! Are the French about to lead Europe into a second Enlightenment and a new age of reason?
Climate Depot reports:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy appears ready to appoint renowned geophysicist and former socialist party leader Dr. Claude Allegre – France’s most outspoken global warming sceptic – to head the new super-ministry of industry and innovation.

Ze rest is 'ere, at Ze Spectateur:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/3649281/a-true-scientist-in-governmen...

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muso

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #108 - May 30^th, 2009 at 9:31am

Can we have some actual scientific argument instead of the 'Appeal to Authority' gambit, because it gets boring refuting it all the time.

The trap is that the only counter to 'Appeal to Authority' is to demonstrate that the authority is not an authority.

Even if that's true, which it usually is, it leads to claims of hypocrisy.

Just so that everybody is aware - a claim about climatology requires qualifications in climatology.

A claim about a person's qualifications can be verified by just about anybody - no specialist knowledge required. A secretary can do it.

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Soren Gold Member Offline Posts: 25654 Gender:	Re: Cooling not warming... Reply #109 - May 30^th, 2009 at 9:58am Muso, is it true that there have been ice ages (significantly cooler climate) in the past with greater levels of atmospheric CO2 then at present?
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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Cooling not warming... Reply #110 - Jun 1^st, 2009 at 2:48pm Soren wrote on May 30^th, 2009 at 9:58am: Muso, is it true that there have been ice ages (significantly cooler climate) in the past with greater levels of atmospheric CO2 then at present? Read my posts in the other thread about the Ordovician glaciation.
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tallowood

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #111 - Jun 1^st, 2009 at 8:25pm

muso wrote on May 30^th, 2009 at 9:31am:

Can we have some actual scientific argument instead of the 'Appeal to Authority' gambit, because it gets boring refuting it all the time.

The trap is that the only counter to 'Appeal to Authority' is to demonstrate that the authority is not an authority.

Even if that's true, which it usually is, it leads to claims of hypocrisy.

Just so that everybody is aware - a claim about climatology requires qualifications in climatology.

A claim about a person's qualifications can be verified by just about anybody - no specialist knowledge required. A secretary can do it.

Can we design a repeatable experiments to test various environmental hypothesis? "It has to be a reasonable test that would disprove the hypothesis if it were false". If we cannot design such an experiment, an environmental hypothesis is not scientific.

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עַם יִשְרָאֵל חַי

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Soren

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #112 - Jun 1^st, 2009 at 8:30pm

Yeah, I did. A classic snow job.

"... here's quite an old paper that may have some answers" Or it may not, as it happens. It's the kind of wild assumming that woudl say things like "if Auntie Mary had a willy she'd be Uncle Bob"

Quote:

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999PalOc..14..542P

The analysis of the geologic record [i]has revealed a question concerning how the Late Ordovician glaciation could have occurred simultaneously with high CO2 levels (10-18x). Sensitivity studies using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model show that it is possible to maintain a permanent snow cover (which corresponds to 60% of all the glacial deposits found on Gondwana) under 10x CO2 levels, warm fall/cool spring orbital parameters, a 4.5% reduction in solar luminosity, a length of day of 21.5 hours, and an enhanced snow/sea ice albedo of 0.3. A cold summer orbit experiment with 10x CO2 and a reduced snow/sea ice albedo of 0.1 also sustains a permanent (albeit less extensive) snow cover. The geographic configuration of the Late Ordovician results in an up to ~42% increase in the global ocean poleward heat transport in the Southern Hemisphere relative to present-day and a significant asymmetry relative to the equator[/i].

It is not even as straightforward as the Auntie/ Uncle hypothesis. All it actually says is that the question arises whether Auntie Mary, in case she had a willy, could be taken for Uncle Bob with a long white beard, considering that experiments with dummies along these lines showed the possibility of mistaking one for the other from a long way away.

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muso

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #113 - Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 9:18am

Welcome to scientific research, Soren. We can't say too much for certain about a glaciation that happened 433 Million years ago, just as we can't say for certain what 'absolutely definitely' caused the extinction of the dinosaurs.

This explanation makes a great deal of sense though. Ever wonder why there was so much more ice cover in the Antarctic nowadays? Land masses have that effect.

So I see your desperate clutch at straws and I'll raise you my intelligent guess based on the best data we have available.

Incidentally your highlighting indicates that you don't understand the flow of the abstract. It starts off with the questions and doubts, then shows how the study addresses them.

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« Last Edit: Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 9:46am by muso »

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muso

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #114 - Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 9:25am

tallowood wrote on Jun 1^st, 2009 at 8:25pm:

Can we design a repeatable experiments to test various environmental hypothesis? "It has to be a reasonable test that would disprove the hypothesis if it were false". If we cannot design such an experiment, an environmental hypothesis is not scientific.

OK Karl Popper Tongue

Yes - the claim that the increased increased tropospheric warming is largely due to the increased CO2 concentration is testable.

The reasonable test is that the stratosphere should show a corresponding cooling for that period.

If the observed tropospheric warming is due to increased solar output, then that should show an increase in stratospheric temperatures and an increase in solar irradiance.

That's a reasonable test to apply.

We already know how much cooling is caused by CFC's and other ozone depletants.

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« Last Edit: Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 9:32am by muso »

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Happy

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #115 - Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 11:57am

Quote:

From ABC, 1 Jun 09

RED CENTRE SHIVERS IN RECORD COLD

Alice Springs has had its coldest May day on record, with the temperature reaching just 9.6 degrees Celsius on Saturday.
After a balmy 29.6 degrees Celsius the previous Sunday, winter came two days early to the Red Centre.
Jenny Farlow from the weather bureau says Saturday was the coldest May day ever recorded in Alice Springs.
And it was only slightly warmer yesterday, reaching 10.8C.
"It was actually really interesting because the minimums were very close to the maximums," she said.
The cooler temperatures and steady rain caused havoc for some sporting events, including the weekend's horse racing.
"They just deemed it unsafe to run so unfortunately we had to call the meeting off," the turf club's general manager, Matthew Champ, said.
The operations manager at the Alice Springs airport, Simon Hatfield, says there was no disruption to scheduled flights but it had to postpone a runway upgrade last night.

I know one event doesn't make climate change, but seems that those events of record cold temperatures are recorded more often in last few years.

One of the models for global warming mentioned that while icecap are melting we can expect temporary drop in average and extreme temperatures, so this could also be confirmation of warming.

Well, time will tell.

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Cooling not warming... Reply #116 - Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 12:08pm I'll say this, Happy. Watch this space. I see that they are forecasting an El Nino by the end of the year. 2010 might be just a tad hotter than normal, especially if the Sunspot cycle catches up by then.
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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Cooling not warming... Reply #117 - Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 12:18pm An El Nino.... OMG are you saying man-made CO2 drives that now. OMG weather and climate confusion OMG solar activity What is the world coming to?
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Happy

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #118 - Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 12:25pm

muso wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 12:08pm:

... I see that they are forecasting an El Nino by the end of the year.

2010 might be just a tad hotter than normal, especially if the Sunspot cycle catches up by then.

I watched few days ago program that proved Indian Ocean to affect our rainfall not Pacific Ocean.

If I could have it my way. Pipelines with water from the north would be heading south.

By the way great recession buster opportunity, also desalination plants in every coastal city.
(After all if icecaps are melting we have dilution of salinity, so we could only help here concentrating salinity a bit)

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skippy

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Re: Cooling not warming...
Reply #119 - Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 1:52pm

Happy wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 12:25pm:

muso wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2009 at 12:08pm:

... I see that they are forecasting an El Nino by the end of the year.

2010 might be just a tad hotter than normal, especially if the Sunspot cycle catches up by then.

I watched few days ago program that proved Indian Ocean to affect our rainfall not Pacific Ocean.

If I could have it my way. Pipelines with water from the north would be heading south.

By the way great recession buster opportunity, also desalination plants in every coastal city.
(After all if icecaps are melting we have dilution of salinity, so we could only help here concentrating salinity a bit)

I saw that show Happy, I think it was Catalyst, it was very interesting as it did show our climate here depends largely on the Indian Ocean not the Pacific.

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