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Not "climate change" (Read 60444 times)
Grendel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #75 - Nov 26th, 2008 at 6:23pm
 
Well gee thanks for telling me something I already know.

Woosh...  watch out another point flew right over your head.

Oh almost forgot...

sea·son      (sē'zən)  Pronunciation Key
n. 

   1.
        1. One of the four natural divisions of the year, spring, summer, fall, and winter, in the North and South Temperate zones. Each season, beginning astronomically at an equinox or solstice, is characterized by specific meteorological or climatic conditions.

Cheesy
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Soren
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #76 - Nov 26th, 2008 at 6:55pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 26th, 2008 at 11:16am:
Soren wrote on Nov 26th, 2008 at 10:07am:

To date, neither the forecasts of catasptrophy nor human culpability are established to a reasonable enough degree for people to hand over political control to the boosters.


Total Horsefeathers. I think it's obvious that virtually every professional climatologist and every national academy in the world disagrees with that statement.

Do you still think it's the sun/ orbital changes or volcanoes?

Please provide evidence. Put your money where your mouth is.

I can supply evidence that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to fossil fuel burning and other anthropogenic sources. The evidence is there from the isotope ratios. There is a well establshed science of tracking  δ 13C plumes throughout the world. Are you saying there is a problem with this measurement? If so, please explain.  Roll Eyes

These parameters are being monitored, and it's a pretty basic measurement.

So if it's not the sun, it's not volcanoes, what else could be causing this increase in fossil fuel derived CO2?  The tellytubbies?

Tellytubbies? Cute.

You tell me what caused all previous, pre-indusrial age climate changes.
Then tell me how CO2 overrides all these previous causes.
Then we'll be on the same page.





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freediver
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #77 - Nov 26th, 2008 at 8:29pm
 
Quote:
Then tell me how CO2 overrides all these previous causes.


Who says it overrides other causes?
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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.
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Soren
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #78 - Nov 26th, 2008 at 8:59pm
 
freediver wrote on Nov 26th, 2008 at 8:29pm:
Quote:
Then tell me how CO2 overrides all these previous causes.


Who says it overrides other causes?

Well, if it doesn't  - what the hell is it doing in here??


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freediver
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #79 - Nov 26th, 2008 at 9:45pm
 
AGW causes and additional change, on top of the natural variability in climate.
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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.
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Soren
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #80 - Nov 26th, 2008 at 9:51pm
 
freediver wrote on Nov 26th, 2008 at 9:45pm:
AGW causes and additional change, on top of the natural variability in climate.



that's too breeze to justify handover of political control.

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freediver
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #81 - Nov 26th, 2008 at 10:40pm
 
Yes it is Soren. Fortunately the scientists put together more than one sentence on the issue. I was just responding to your query.
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #82 - Nov 27th, 2008 at 8:23am
 
Soren wrote on Nov 26th, 2008 at 6:55pm:
You tell me what caused all previous, pre-indusrial age climate changes.
Then tell me how CO2 overrides all these previous causes.
Then we'll be on the same page.



Good. You're starting to think.  Remember how I said before that there is an equlibrium between atmospheric CO2 and temperature?

An equilibrium is not a cause and effect situation. Increase temperature ('turn up' the sun) and you increase CO2. Increase CO2 (from burning fossil fuels etc) and you increase temperatures.

The relationship between temperature and CO2 is well established. I'm sure you've see the ice cores from Vostok, the Deuterium proxy temperature curve and the corresponding CO2 levels. They follow each other pretty well. In the pre-industrial era that was due to changes in Solar irradiance, mainly due to orbital changes (see Milankovich cycle)

The increase in CO2 and temperature that we have experienced in the last roughly 50 years can not be explained by changes in solar irradiance, which is your primary natural input. We know that because we can measure solar irradiation (see my previous link to PMOD a few posts back). We can therefore eliminate solar irradiance effects - not entirely - we still have slight changes in intensity on approximately 11 and 22 year cycles, but we can account for all that.

Please let me know if you understand what I'm saying. If you are actually trying to understand with an open mind, it will all suddenly click.  I find it very frustrating explaining these things, but I have had a few people suddenly understand, which makes it all worthwhile.

The natural cycles exist, but what we have seen in the last 50 years or so is much more dramatic and has a much higher rate of change. It cannot be explained by the measurements we have on solar irradiance.  



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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #83 - Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:17am
 
Incidentally, the reason that I singled out Dr. Sami Solanki--director and scientific member at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany, was because he is actually a highly respected  lead researcher involved in solar irradiance series. The Max Planck Institute is at the forefront of extrapolating Solar irradiance figures back at least until the beginning of the 19th century.

It's quite a complex task to do that. It involves many proxies, orbital calculations and also takes into account solar activity.

Here is his Home Page:

http://www.mps.mpg.de/homes/solanki/nonsci.html

A misleading account of my views was published in the Toronto National Post in March, 2007 (and is to be found at different places on the web). In contrast to what is written there I am not a denier of global warming produced by an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Already at present the overwhelming source of global warming is due to manmade greenhouse gases and their influence will continue to grow in the future as their concentration increases. The same newspaper already misquoted other scientists on this topic. See, for example, the home page of Nigel Weiss of Cambridge University http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/now/

Grendel - doesn't that even bother you that he was included on that list you quoted? Just stop and think about it. Are you concerned that your post repeated a lie?
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Grendel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #84 - Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:48am
 
Yet the claim is that CO2 is released over time after a warming period.  In fact that there is a substantial lag time between the 2.

So isn't it possible that this warming event  just happens to coincide with the CO2 from the last warming event.

Some alternate opinions.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-440049/Greenhouse-effect-myth-say-scientists.html

But Professor Ian Clark, an expert in palaeoclimatology from the University of Ottawa, claims that warmer periods of the Earth's history came around 800 years before rises in carbon dioxide levels.

http://www.curezone.com/forums/fm.asp?i=1204144


Abdusamatov claimed that the upper layers of the world's oceans are - much to climatologists' surprise - becoming cooler, which is a clear indication that the Earth has hit its temperature ceiling already, and that solar radiation levels are falling and will eventually lead to a worldwide cold spell.

http://www.green-agenda.com/greenland.html

“At least three careful ice core studies have shown that CO2 starts to rise about 800 years (600-1000 years) after Antarctic temperature during glacial terminations... The reason has to do with the fact that the warmings take about 5000 years to be complete. The lag is only 800 years. All that the lag shows is that CO2 did not cause the first 800 years of warming, out of the 5000 year trend. The other 4200 years of warming could in fact have been caused by CO2, as far as we can tell from this ice core data. The 4200 years of warming make up about 5/6 of the total warming. So CO2 could have caused the last 5/6 of the warming, but could not have caused the first 1/6 of the warming.“

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2007/12/global_warming_10.html

After further research, new high-resolution ice core results (data points only a few hundred years apart) in 2000–2003 allowed us to distinguish which came first, the temperature rises or the CO2 rises. We found that temperature changes preceded CO2 changes by an average of 800 years. So temperature caused the CO2 levels, and not the other way around as previously assumed. The world should have started backpedaling away from blaming carbon emissions in 2003.

Ah muso the only concern I have is your obsessive belief in something unproven.  And the lengths you go to to belittle and shoot the messenger.

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Grendel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #85 - Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:52am
 
Oh and I almost forgot..

Don't you suppose that during warming periods that all Greenhouse gasses increase?

Oh dear.  Cheesy
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #86 - Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:53am
 
Grendel wrote on Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:48am:
Yet the claim is that CO2 is released over time after a warming period.  In fact that there is a substantial lag time between the 2.


Grendel. Think about what you write. Yes there is. There are all sorts of lag times involved depending on the thermal inertia of the oceans and other factors.

CO2 and temperature are in a metastable equilibrium.
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #87 - Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:54am
 
Grendel wrote on Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:52am:
Oh and I almost forgot..

Don't you suppose that during warming periods that all Greenhouse gasses increase?

Oh dear.  Cheesy


Yes. That's what I said in my previous post. What point are you trying to make here?
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #88 - Nov 27th, 2008 at 10:01am
 
Grendel wrote on Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:48am:
Ah muso the only concern I have is your obsessive belief in something unproven.  And the lengths you go to to belittle and shoot the messenger.



You're obviously not reading my posts. It's yet another strawman.

Doesn't it even concern you that some of the sources you quote are deliberately lying? Do you have any personal integrity?

Grendel wrote on Nov 27th, 2008 at 9:48am:
Yet the claim is that CO2 is released over time after a warming period.  In fact that there is a substantial lag time between the 2.

So isn't it possible that this warming event  just happens to coincide with the CO2 from the last warming event.

Some alternate opinions.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-440049/Greenhouse-effect-myth-say-scientists.html

But Professor Ian Clark, an expert in palaeoclimatology from the University of Ottawa, claims that warmer periods of the Earth's history came around 800 years before rises in carbon dioxide levels.




This part is undiluted male bovine excreta. Professor Ian Clark has not published anything on Antarctic ice cores, or on the lag between carbon dioxide and temperature.
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #89 - Nov 27th, 2008 at 10:18am
 
A little bit of information on Richard Lindzen:

Professor Richard Lindzen
Lindzen is Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a well-regarded meteorologist with a distinguished publication record (see http://tinyurl.com/28wszg); however, his research is mostly in meteorology (the weather) rather than on climatology.

His last original research in climatology was published in 2001 (ISI WoS) and hypothesized an adaptive “Iris Effect” of clouds in the tropics that reduces the temperature change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. However, this hypothesis has since been strongly disputed by other climate scientists (see http://tinyurl.com/23gwno).

Lindzen co-authored a 2001 report of the National Academy of Sciences http://tinyurl.com/yuswbu, which concluded that:

Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability.”

He has since claimed that the summary did not accurately reflect the main report, and has made similar criticisms of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers from its 2001 Third Assessment Report (see http://tinyurl.com/2ay5vj)  – although he has yet to demonstrate the basis of these claims.

Despite reportedly saying that he is “willing to take bets that global average temperatures in 20 years will in fact be lower than they are now”, he has refused to accept a bet with climatologist James Annan on this, unless the payout was 50:1 or better in his favour (see http://tinyurl.com/39e5ne).

Lindzen has also been accused by distinguished scientists of having said things in public testimony, in order to win an argument, that he knew were not supported by the scientific evidence – see: http://tinyurl.com/yo5and, http://tinyurl.com/ytb2g9, http://tinyurl.com/2a35a6and http://tinyurl.com/yrbcju.

C.17.1 Direct Corporate Funding
In a 1995 article in Harper’s Magazine, Ross Gelbspan asserted that Lindzen “charges oil and coal interests $2,500 a day for his consulting services; his 1991 trip to testify before a Senate committee was paid for by Western Fuels; and a speech he wrote, entitled Global Warming: the Origin and Nature of Alleged Scientific Consensus, was underwritten by OPEC” (see http://tinyurl.com/2rpr7k, subscription required).

C.17.2 Links to Corporate-funded Lobby Groups
(For information about the following organisations and the funding they receive, see Appendix D: Corporate-funded Organisations Linked to Contributors to the Programme).

1.
He is a Member of the Science and Economic Advisory Council of The Annapolis Center for Science-Based Public Policy (see http://tinyurl.com/26rdf5).

2.
He is a Contributing Expert to the Cato Institute , and has also written reports for them. See, for example, Lindzen, R., 1992, Global warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus, Regulation Magazine, Vol.15, No. 2, Spring 1992: published by the Cato Institute, http://tinyurl.com/y9gk3j.

3.
He is a Contributing Expert to the George C. Marshall Institute (see http://tinyurl.com/2sq4pf).

4.
He has been a contributor to TCS Daily, the web-based magazine of the Tech Central Science Foundation (see http://tinyurl.com/2lbqad).

5.
He is a global warming expert with the Heartland Institute (see: http://tinyurl.com/33txc4).


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