Australian Politics Forum - Not "climate change"

pjb05

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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #300 - Dec 14^th, 2008 at 8:46am

freediver wrote on Dec 13^th, 2008 at 9:30pm:

pjb05 wrote on Dec 12^th, 2008 at 7:51pm:

freediver wrote on Dec 12^th, 2008 at 6:16pm:

If you are referring to this one:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1227222079/188#188

that is a warming trend, not a cooling trend. You don't get a trend by selecting the two most favourable points, drawing a straight line between them, and ignoring the trend. That is the sort of thing that gives real statisticians a bad name.

It's not a warming trend over the last ten years, and this not an insignificant amount of time. If it goes on much longer questions will be increasingly asked about AGW.

Yes it is a warming trend PJ. You can't just pick the two most favourable data points to make a trend from.

It's not a matter of 'picking the two most favourable data points', it's commenting of the most recent trend. Yes if you look back prior to the the last 10 years to the warming of the 80's and 90's this trend is not yet broken in statistical terms - but if the trend of the last ten years continues - it will be.

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Not "climate change" Reply #301 - Dec 14^th, 2008 at 9:39am PJB, The GISS Data is more complete. ok? The HadCRUT3v is an incomplete data set and the ONLY one that shows such a trend. ▼
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freediver

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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #302 - Dec 14^th, 2008 at 10:26am

pjb05 wrote on Dec 14^th, 2008 at 8:46am:

freediver wrote on Dec 13^th, 2008 at 9:30pm:

pjb05 wrote on Dec 12^th, 2008 at 7:51pm:

freediver wrote on Dec 12^th, 2008 at 6:16pm:

If you are referring to this one:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1227222079/188#188

that is a warming trend, not a cooling trend. You don't get a trend by selecting the two most favourable points, drawing a straight line between them, and ignoring the trend. That is the sort of thing that gives real statisticians a bad name.

It's not a warming trend over the last ten years, and this not an insignificant amount of time. If it goes on much longer questions will be increasingly asked about AGW.

Yes it is a warming trend PJ. You can't just pick the two most favourable data points to make a trend from.

It's not a matter of 'picking the two most favourable data points', it's commenting of the most recent trend. Yes if you look back prior to the the last 10 years to the warming of the 80's and 90's this trend is not yet broken in statistical terms - but if the trend of the last ten years continues - it will be.

I am commenting on the most recent trend. The last ten data points show an increasing trend. Try doing the maths if you don't believe me. You are giving undue weight to the single outlying point.

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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

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Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: Not "climate change" Reply #303 - Dec 14^th, 2008 at 12:27pm It's the 2-wise-monkeys effect pj... hands over eyes and ears.... helps maintain denial. Said almost the exact same thing earlier... 'round and 'round we go.....
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muso

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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #304 - Dec 14^th, 2008 at 1:05pm

Grendel wrote on Dec 14^th, 2008 at 12:27pm:

It's the 2-wise-monkeys effect pj... hands over eyes and ears.... helps maintain denial. Said almost the exact same thing earlier... 'round and 'round we go.....

Repetition often works when people have difficulty learning a new concept. Would you like me to provide a statistic breakdown for you complete with regression analysis? It's quite easy. The functions are built into Excel.

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