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Not "climate change" (Read 60446 times)
Grendel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #105 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 8:52am
 
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Perhaps you should try applying the same standards to your own claims Grendel. Remember, the politics is all about risk management, not proof. It is irrational to demand proof in the face of risk.


ROTFLMAO>>

If you stop something due to RISK...  but it's something that will have no effect on the outcome... then you aren't mitigating the RISK  Cheesy

That's why you need some sort of real proof first fd.
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Grendel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #106 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 8:57am
 
Oh dear at least we got one post without ad hom in it today muso...  well done.  Any improvement is welcome.

Now how about proving that CO2 increases... increase temperature.  How about proving that all the other "Greenhouse" gases don't have the same effect or more of an effect on temperature.

So far all you've managed to do is point out that green house gases..  sorry CO2... increases marginally within the overall atmospheric makeup as a reaction to increased temperature.
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #107 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 9:30am
 
Grendel wrote on Nov 28th, 2008 at 8:57am:
Now how about proving that CO2 increases... increase temperature.  How about proving that all the other "Greenhouse" gases don't have the same effect or more of an effect on temperature.

So far all you've managed to do is point out that green house gases..  sorry CO2... increases marginally within the overall atmospheric makeup as a reaction to increased temperature.


Your question is - how does increasing atmospheric CO2 result in an increase in mean global temperatures?

I should note that CO2 accounts for approximately 93-95% of the radiative forcings at this point in time. Other greenhouse gases such as methane, N2O and CFC's have a relatively low contribution, even though methane has approximately 8 times the Greenhouse Warming potential of CO2 taken over a 50 year period. (That's off the top of my head - feel free to look it up)

The heating effect is a very well understood relationship, although the CO2 forcing part of the equation has a few feedbacks attached to it. The greatest effect on global temperature is due to the water vapour feedback, which hopefully as you can appreciate is a function of temperature. Arrhenius understood this relationship way back when, and the forcing equation is based on a derivative of the Stefan Boltzmann equation - some very basic physics.

Increase temperature by increasing CO2 and you increase atmospheric water vapour concentration, which in turn drives the temperature up further.

Imagine the infrared radiation coming from space (ie from the sun). It hits the earth, and a proportion of the radiation escapes into space - it is reflected. Some surfaces reflect somewhat better than others.

For example, pine forest has a very low albedo, and this absorbs IR radiation very effectively whereas ice tends to reflect to a much greater extent.

On the balance, the earth reflects about 51% of the total incident radiation it receives.  OK?

When IR radiation of specific frequencies come in contact with CO2 in the atmosphere, they are absorbed and re-emitted at different (lower) angles. The overall effect is that 1. The layer of atmosphere closer to the earth (the troposphere) heats up more and 2. the layer above that (the stratosphere) experiences a net cooling effect. Do you understand that part? Both effects have been observed.

One question - What happens to air density as the mole fraction of water vapour increases?  (In other words as air gets more humid, does it get denser or less dense?)

That's not a trick. I'm just trying to get you to follow the logic.

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« Last Edit: Nov 28th, 2008 at 9:52am by muso »  

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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #108 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 9:36am
 
So - I think you understand, (more or less) that heat drives the weather. How much radiation we receive, and it's retained. That heat is transported around the globe by various mechanisms. That air masses move according to differentials in heat. How various pressure regimes occur. How these determine winds, directions, velocities. All that comes into play when we consider atmospheric general circulation models, but in the meantime, let's stick to radiation balance.

Using the Radiation Balance Equation, we can determine what the average received solar insolation is:

[(K + k)(1 - a)]

K = Shortwave Direct Radiation
k = Shortwave Indirect Radiation
a = Reflectivity of the Surface or Surface Albedo

That's only a partial answer though. To gain a better picture of what's happening, we look at the Global Shortwave Energy Cascade, which takes into account all insolation that ultimately reaches the surface and is absorbed, reemitted, or reflected:

The Global Shortwave Radiation Cascade describes the relative amounts (based on 100 units available at the top of the atmosphere) of shortwave radiation partitioned out to various atmospheric processes as it passes through the atmosphere. 19 units of insolation are absorbed (and therefore transferred into heat energy and longwave radiation) in the atmosphere by the following two processes:

- Stratospheric Absorption of the Ultraviolet Radiation by Ozone 2 units; and

- Tropospheric Absorption of Insolation by Clouds and Aerosols 17 units.

23 units of solar radiation are scattered in the atmosphere subsequently absorbed at the surface as diffused insolation. 28 units of the incoming solar radiation are absorbed at the surface as direct insolation. Total amount of solar insolation absorbed at the surface equals 51 units. The total amount of shortwave radiation absorbed at the surface and in the atmosphere is 70 units.

Three main losses of solar radiation back to space occur in the Earth's shortwave radiation cascade. 4 units of sunlight are returned to space from surface reflection. Cloud reflection returns another 20 units of solar radiation. Back scattering of sunlight returns 6 units to space. The total loss of shortwave radiation from these processes is 30 units. The term used to describe the combined effect of all of these shortwave losses is Earth albedo.

Global Shortwave Energy Cascade:

K' = (K + k)(1 - a)

L' = (LD - LU)

Q' = (K + k)(1 - a) -LU + LD

Q' is surface net radiation (global annual values of Q' = 0 , because input equals output, local values can be positive or negative),

K' is surface net shortwave radiation,

K is surface direct shortwave radiation,

k is diffused shortwave radiation (scattered insolation) at the surface,

a is the albedo of surface,

L' is net longwave radiation at the surface,

LD is atmospheric counter-radiation (see Greenhouse Effect) directed to the Earth's surface, and

LU is longwave radiation lost from the Earth's surface.

Having seen where and in what percentages we receive our daily incoming solar energy, then the question arises, "what does it do once it's been absorbed?"

Well, obviously, once received, it is re-emitted as longer wavelengths, or held as latent energy in the atmosphere, oceans, or ice.

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freediver
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #109 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 10:05am
 
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That's why you need some sort of real proof first fd.


There is sufficient evidence to warrant taking the risk seriously. Demanding absolute proof before avoiding risk is irrational.
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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #110 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 10:18am
 
Let's forget the semantics around the word proof just for a moment.

Do you honestly think that the highly conservative and vaulted echelons of the Nobel Foundation would have awarded the 2007 Nobel Prize to the IPCC (and some American Politician with a mouth) for for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change if there was any doubt about the matter?

It's cut and dried guys. It's far more certain than decisions that are taken on a day to day basis by large businesses.

Even Oil Companies and Coal Miners have issued public statements that acknowledge the certainty of AGW.

Now there might be a few flies left in the ointment, but they are very scary guys and girls.
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Grendel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #111 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 11:13am
 
I think giving Al Gore a NPP is a joke...  and did more to harm the credibility of the awards than anything I can remember in recent history.

oh and once more....  I'm not denying that GW happens nore are most of the so called skeptics or deniers...  which makes you a bigger denier.  The argument is about what is causing it.  What the driver of climate change is...  and so far it ain't coming up CO2.
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #112 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 12:02pm
 
Grendel wrote on Nov 28th, 2008 at 11:13am:
I think giving Al Gore a NPP is a joke...  and did more to harm the credibility of the awards than anything I can remember in recent history.


FD - can we get Al Gore added to the list of bad words? Substitute anything you like. The blue Tellietubby might be appropriate given his political affiliation.


Quote:
 The argument is about what is causing it.  What the driver of climate change is...  and so far it ain't coming up CO2.


The question is - what is the cause of the temperature increases of the last (say) 50 years? We know pretty well what factors determine atmospheric temperature. There is a close relationship between temperature and CO2, although I think you're saying that it only goes one way ? Is that correct, or do you have to nip over to Climate Audit to check what you think?

What
do you think it could be, given the data we've seen for solar irradiance? Do you reject the fundamental basis of atmospheric physics? Do you think it's Satan (alias the red tellietubby) ?

Do you think that my last couple of posts were just BS?
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Grendel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #113 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 5:23pm
 
Well thanks for the tip...  more ad hom...  cant help yourself... it;s that ego and superiority complex you have trouble dealing with.  Grin

I haven't been to that site in particular, but be sure I'll look at it now.
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easel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #114 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 6:16pm
 
muso wrote on Nov 28th, 2008 at 10:18am:
Let's forget the semantics around the word proof just for a moment.

Do you honestly think that the highly conservative and vaulted echelons of the Nobel Foundation would have awarded the 2007 Nobel Prize to the IPCC (and some American Politician with a mouth) for for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change if there was any doubt about the matter?

It's cut and dried guys. It's far more certain than decisions that are taken on a day to day basis by large businesses.

Even Oil Companies and Coal Miners have issued public statements that acknowledge the certainty of AGW.

Now there might be a few flies left in the ointment, but they are very scary guys and girls.


Didn't the Nobel mob give Mandela an award? And Al Gore?

Mandela was a communist terrorist. Al Gore is just a wanker who lies and deceives.

As far as I am concerned, they're a bunch of tossers.
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I am from a foreign government. This is not a joke. I am authorised to investigate state and federal bodies including ASIO.
 
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #115 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 8:47pm
 
Grendel wrote on Nov 28th, 2008 at 5:23pm:
Well thanks for the tip...  more ad hom...  cant help yourself... it;s that ego and superiority complex you have trouble dealing with.  Grin

I haven't been to that site in particular, but be sure I'll look at it now.


Grendel - a prime characteristic of an huge inflated ego is not even bothering to reply  or read something  that somebody has taken a lot of trouble to compile.

Quite frankly, I give up trying to explain it to you. You are a lost cause.  Maybe somebody else is not so scared to read my posts that they could find out that I might actually be telling the truth.  

You, and others like you would prefer to read nonsense from various contrarian sites even if they deliberately lie. It doesn't matter to you that they don't even agree with each other. You're happy to quote all sorts of nonsense, including that from sites that defame respected researchers who subsequently find it necessary to publish disclaimers on their personal websites.

In point of fact, you have no interest in hearing the facts - have you?
I suspect that your real intention is to troll.
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« Last Edit: Nov 28th, 2008 at 9:03pm by muso »  

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Grendel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #116 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 9:26pm
 
ROTFLMAO....

More ad hom...
 more lack of proof...

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/01/06/br_r_r_where_did_global_warming_go/
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« Last Edit: Nov 29th, 2008 at 1:01am by Grendel »  
 
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easel
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #117 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 9:31pm
 
There are scientifically valid arguments for both sides of the fence in this debate.
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I am from a foreign government. This is not a joke. I am authorised to investigate state and federal bodies including ASIO.
 
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #118 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 10:19pm
 
Environmentology is just another religion. Cool
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עַם יִשְרָאֵל חַי
 
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muso
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Re: Not "climate change"
Reply #119 - Nov 28th, 2008 at 10:34pm
 
Easel,

I can tell you as a practising Environmental Scientist that there is only one side to this as far as the science is concerned. You just need a very basic grounding in general science to understand that fact.

I've already explained that if you go through my posts. I'm just telling the truth here.

Hopefully there is somebody else on this board who understands enough to confirm what I'm saying. 

Some of the few scientists who take a contrarian stance actually know the truth, and they know that perfectly well. I suspect that some of the people who post on internet forums know the truth of the matter too. To deliberately hide the truth is dishonest.

Richard Lindzen is one of the very few climatologists who take that stance. His Iris theory was disproven and discredited a long time ago, and he hasn't published anything in scientific journals since then. He has an axe to grind.

Even Al Gore, although not a professional climatologist, is actually right on the money most of the time. The fact that he's a politician is not very helpful, although there is now broad support from both sides of politics.
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