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Climate Change Debate (Read 26322 times)
muso
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #45 - Jul 20th, 2008 at 12:37pm
 
freediver wrote on Jul 20th, 2008 at 10:43am:
Can the computer programmer say what this important message is, or does his code not cover it? The fact that there may have been other causes previously is not in any way evidence that CO2 is not the cause today. That's the whole point of the current research.




I missed the other thread.

Basically you're talking about a company that was hired to write a computer program that accounted for carbon in organic substances such as timber, soils etc, based on instructions from experts in the field.   

It's like asking the electrician who rewired the White House to comment on US politics. He might offer all kinds of expert opinions at the bar after the job.

PB - You might hire somebody that puts "Rocket Scientist' on their CV, but I wouldn't.
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liko
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Re: Renewable Energy Sources
Reply #46 - Jul 24th, 2008 at 11:59pm
 
Quote:
Could you explain further what you mean? There are feedbacks that are not fully accounted for, but generally these are all positive feedbacks.

If you mean that the IPCC synthesis report for 2007 is inaccurate due to political pressure, mainly from China, I agree with you.

I know one climatologist personally, and from what he says, the IPCC report was not even discussed in much depth in Bali, because it was woefully understating the reality.

Even though the IPCC Third Assessment Report (WG1- 2001) was much more conservative than AR4 last year, the real situation is much worse.  
Anyone with any brains knows that "man made" global warming is a scam,Just read "the club of romes-first global revolution- in it they state why the super rich agreed on it ,for their purposes.It is for the mass idiot,and scientists who don't do their own research! I can't believe how so many people can get sucked into this.It prob wasn't discussed because they all know the report is totally flawed & tampered with.They only talk about it when they are trying to sell you(the mass idiot) some bullshit enviromental policy.
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« Last Edit: Jul 25th, 2008 at 12:05am by liko »  
 
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Acid Monkey
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #47 - Aug 2nd, 2008 at 8:54pm
 
The climate change smokescreen

August 2, 2008

Global warming scepticism is being manipulated by tactics reminiscient of an earlier campaign of denial, writes David McKnight.

When the tobacco industry was feeling the heat from scientists who showed smoking caused cancer, it took decisive action, engaging in a decades-long public relations campaign to undermine the medical research and discredit the scientists.

The aim was not to prove tobacco harmless but to cast doubt on the science. In the space provided by doubt, billions of dollars in sales could continue.

....

In May, the multibillion-dollar oil giant Exxon Mobil acknowledged it had been doing something similar. It said it would cease funding nine groups that had fuelled a global campaign to deny climate change.

Exxon's decision came after a shareholder revolt by members of the Rockefeller family and big superannuation funds to get the company to take climate change more seriously. Exxon (once Standard Oil) was founded by John D. Rockefeller.

Brad Miller, chairman of the US House of Representatives oversight committee on science and technology, last year said Exxon's support for sceptics "appears to be an effort to distort public discussion". The funding of an array of think tanks and institutes which house climate sceptics and deniers also worried Britain's premier scientific body, the Royal Society. It found that in 2005, Exxon distributed nearly $3 million to 39 groups which "misrepresented the science of climate change by outright denial of the evidence that greenhouse gases are driving climate change". Its protests helped force Exxon's recent retreat.

....

In Australia, the main body trying to undermine the science of global warming is the Lavoisier Group. It maintains a website with links to the Competitive Enterprise Institute (more than $2 million from Exxon), the Science and Environmental Policy Project ($20,000) and the Centre for the Study of Carbon Dioxide (at least $100,000). The Competitive Enterprise Institute returns the compliment to Lavoisier in its publication, which praised the group for its work in defeating the Kyoto protocol. Lavoisier, it said, "provides the principal intellectual and organisational opposition in Australia to Kyoto". Its sources of funding are not public.

The Lavoisier group is certainly influential in the Federal Opposition. During the Howard years, a senior figure in the group told Guy Pearse, author of High & Dry, a study of climate policy in Australia, there was "an understanding in cabinet that all the science is crap".


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The full SMH article here



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Acid Monkey
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #48 - Aug 2nd, 2008 at 9:01pm
 
Common Myths About Climate Chnage




The world has been cooling since 1998.
Temperatures have been going up and down slightly, but the clear trend is upwards. Since regular temperature records began in 1850, 12 of the past

13 years have been the hottest on record. Air samples from bubbles trapped in ancient ice, and cross-checked with other samples, show temperatures are rising faster than at any time since modern humans appeared.


The world is getting warmer but we don't know the real cause.
The causes of global warming are not absolutely certain, but the overwhelming majority of researchers, working independently in different parts of the world and using different models, have been coming to the same conclusions for two decades. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reached the conclusion that it is "very likely" that human activity is the main cause of climate change; that is, there is a certainty "greater than 90 per cent". Few scientific theories approach that level of certainty.


Climate change is caused by solar activity.
Changes in radiation from the sun affect Earth's climate, as do oscillations in the Earth's orbit. But since the 1970s, when temperatures increasingly rose beyond norms, both the sun's energy output and the Earth's orbit have been stable. In any case, solar activity is included in climate models.


There is no consensus among scientists.
There is clear and growing consensus in the world scientific community, and in Australia, that human activity is the main driver of climate change, and that cutting greenhouse gas emissions is the only way of slowing it. This is now the view of all the world's leading national science academies and institutes. This does not constitute a unanimous view, however, with a small minority of scientists in relevant fields believing it is too early to be sure.


Why believe long-term predictions when meteorologists cannot even say if it will rain next week?
Climatology takes a step back from day-to-day weather prediction and looks at longer-term patterns. Numerous independent studies have concluded that carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases put into the atmosphere by humans are the new variable causing climate change. Climate models have been repeatedly tested and shown to accurately simulate climate scenarios.


Human emissions are smaller than natural emissions, so cannot be blamed for climate change.
Rotting vegetation releases far more greenhouse gases than does human activity, but those emissions are absorbed by an equal amount of growing vegetation and by the oceans. The new element in this closed system is the extra carbon humans are removing from underground coal, oil and gas reserves and putting into the atmosphere.


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The full SMH article here

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pjb05
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #49 - Aug 2nd, 2008 at 10:17pm
 
I saw the SMH article. Those small amounts of funding by the fossil fuel industry are hardly startling giving that it is dwarfed by the funding available for climate research. This flow of money depends on keeping the AGW threat alive.
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Acid Monkey
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #50 - Aug 2nd, 2008 at 10:37pm
 
"The aim was not to prove tobacco [climate change] harmless but to cast doubt on the science. In the space provided by doubt, billions of dollars in sales could continue."

Therefore, there is no need to provide huge funding to debunk climate change science - only enough for them to mutter their favourite phrase, "some experts disagree" or "there isn't a concensus on the data".
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pjb05
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #51 - Aug 2nd, 2008 at 11:10pm
 
Acid Monkey wrote on Aug 2nd, 2008 at 10:37pm:
"The aim was not to prove tobacco [climate change] harmless but to cast doubt on the science. In the space provided by doubt, billions of dollars in sales could continue."

Therefore, there is no need to provide huge funding to debunk climate change science - only enough for them to mutter their favourite phrase, "some experts disagree" or "there isn't a concensus on the data".


So are you saying that every scientist who disagrees with the AGW theory only does so because they are in the pay of the fossil fuel industry?
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muso
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #52 - Aug 3rd, 2008 at 8:28am
 
pjb05 wrote on Aug 2nd, 2008 at 11:10pm:
So are you saying that every scientist who disagrees with the AGW theory only does so because they are in the pay of the fossil fuel industry?


I'll give my opinion here. I'd say no. Most 'scientists' in this category are more than a little bit eccentric, including the 'odd' rocket scientist  Wink  There are some who are obviously being paid, not by the fossil fuel industry, but by the very conservative business lobby. Interestingly enough, the fossil fuel industry doesn't fund them any more. Exxon made that decision a couple of years ago. Anglo Coal even provides public sessions on the dangers of Climate Change.

You don't have to be a 'rocket scientist' to see that some very conservative groups see climate change as a threat to their economic survival, and will stop at nothing to derail the debate. I can understand their rationale, but it's for short term gain. Unfortunately mainstream economists have a myopic view on anything beyond 10 years. 

Here's one of the groups I'm talking about:

http://www.ipa.org.au/
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« Last Edit: Aug 3rd, 2008 at 8:36am by muso »  

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muso
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #53 - Aug 3rd, 2008 at 8:55am
 
It seems I was wrong about Exxon:

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/05/exxon_still_funding_misreprese_1.php


    "in 2008 we will discontinue contributions to several public policy interest groups whose position on climate change could divert attention from the important discussion on how the world will secure the energy required for economic growth in an environmentally responsible manner."

Remember Jimmy Durante? "Did you ever have the feeling that you wanted to go, and still have the feeling that you wanted to stay?"

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pjb05
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #54 - Aug 3rd, 2008 at 9:32am
 
I would point out though that everyone has a stake in the economy. Those of lefty-green bent seem to forget (or don't care) that the ordinary worker cops it in the neck first when the economy turns pear shaped.
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mozzaok
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #55 - Aug 3rd, 2008 at 11:13am
 
To be fair, we generally do a little research, listen to views of experts, and or, commentators we respect, run it all past our own experience and then form our opinions.

Could we be misled? Sure, but I certainly do not believe we are in regards to the scientific belief in Climate Change.

The skeptics camp, includes the ultra right wing, whose political attachment to the earliest and most vociferous deniers, the political friends of big oil, saw them wed themselves totally to the denialist camp, and then we have the conspiracy theorists who see collusion and corruption behind every rock, making for very strange bedfellows indeed.

The most ludicrous claim of the denialist camp is that the world's pre-eminent scientists, colluded with each other to create a myth so they could guarantee financial gain for themselves.
This myth presupposes that these highly intelligent scientists would otherwise be unable to stave off starvation, without concocting a false theory to leech funds from governments.

Just how these imaginary conspirators, manage to gain the acquiescence of the vast majority of the scientific community to partake in their claimed swindle, is never even attempted to be explained, apart from whispered innuendo about secret cabals.

So while the denialists cannot all be classified as nutcases, I am satisfied that the description will adequately encompass the majority of them, without too much dispute.
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freediver
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #56 - Aug 3rd, 2008 at 6:07pm
 
As the remaining denialists shrink in number, they will start to look more and more like nutcases and greedy whores. There will not be 100% consensus until the last of them die out. Witch is the way with almost all scientific theories.

This flow of money depends on keeping the AGW threat alive.

That doesn't mean that it impacts on the net results. Individual scientsts would still get far more money if they disproved AGW. It would take an absurd global conspiracy to do what you imply. Given that it is difficult enough to get even two scientists to agree on a new idea you would have to have a slim grasp on reality to take this seriously. Furthermore scientists would get more money if there were greater uncertainty. They would talk up the uncertainty, rather than talking it down as they have been (with the exception of Exxon funded scientsts). The money does not depend on keeping the risk alive as you claim. It depends on keeping it unknown. The skeptic camps are the ones keeping the money pouring into this field of research.
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #57 - Aug 3rd, 2008 at 9:23pm
 
pjb05 wrote on Aug 2nd, 2008 at 11:10pm:
So are you saying that every scientist who disagrees with the AGW theory only does so because they are in the pay of the fossil fuel industry?


I don't think that I've said or have implied that in any of my posts. I'm saying that the business lobby or large corporations whose business is linked directly or indirectly to GW do not have to debunk the science. They only have to cast doubt.
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #58 - Aug 8th, 2008 at 7:09am
 
Australia should be leading the way in fighting climate change and can influence other countries to join in, according to the head of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Angel Gurria, who is in Melbourne for meetings, said Australia had a particular responsibility to face up to climate change.

"Australia is also a very big exporter of raw materials including coal, and therefore it has to set the example," he told ABC Television.

"Australia has a lot to contribute to this process so keep at it."

Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal which, when burned for energy, releases carbon dioxide.

Mr Gurria noted Australia produced more carbon emissions than most other countries.

The OECD represents the 30 mostly wealthy nations who have embraced democracy and the market economy. Members include Australia, the US, Japan and the UK.

Mr Gurria, the OECD's secretary-general, praised the federal government's proposed emissions trading scheme, and said the world was watching.

He said Australia's efforts to reduce greenhouse pollution would "absolutely" influence other nations to follow suit.

"Australia is already leading, it's an example, we're all looking at it."

Mr Gurria denied that moving to cut emissions would hurt Australia's big exporters.

He said a whole new industry of "green" businesses would spring up and there were attractive "first mover opportunities" for the nations who embraced the concept of reducing emissions.

Mr Gurria is in Melbourne for Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation group (APEC) meetings dedicated to removing international market barriers.

© 2008 AAP

Copied from SMH website

http://news.smh.com.au/national/oecd-wants-australia-to-lead-on-climate-20080805...
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #59 - Aug 8th, 2008 at 11:04am
 
The increased pressure on America to ratify kyoto will do far more good than any localised reductions. The global political benefits of joining in (we're still far from taking a lead) are real. China an India also have one less excuse for stalling.
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