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Climate Change Debate (Read 26269 times)
lee
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #165 - Sep 1st, 2023 at 1:23pm
 
Linus wrote on Aug 31st, 2023 at 11:11pm:
With respect to corals read the whole article. It's still clear that the GBR is still under threat from rising temperatures and is being adversely affected by them, in spite of your attempt to downplay.


And nowhere was the GBR 93% bleached. And of course corals have been around for millions of years. Sometimes hotter and sometimes cooler, but now it is thermageddon. Roll Eyes

Edit: "Reconstructing Four Centuries of Temperature-Induced Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef"

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00283/full

Linus wrote on Aug 31st, 2023 at 11:11pm:
Initially, climate scientists were surprised by Linzden and Choi's article but on examination found it to be BOLLOCKS...


How exactly did they determine that clouds were likely net positive? I will give you a hint. They didn't, that's why they parameterise them in the models. It helps with their theory.

Linus wrote on Sep 1st, 2023 at 1:12am:
"Climate models are often attacked, but most of the time they're remarkably good


So that is why Hausfather etc say the models run too hot?

Oh I see you are using a 2019 paper.

"Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same.

    Zeke Hausfather, Kate Marvel, Gavin A. Schmidt, John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Mark Zelinka"

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2

From 2022

A description -

"Scientists need to get much choosier in how they use model results, a group of climate scientists argues in a commentary published today in Nature. Researchers should no longer simply use the average of all the climate model projections, which can result in global temperatures by 2100 up to 0.7°C warmer than an estimate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “We need to use a slightly different approach,” says Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payment services company Stripe and lead author of the commentary. “We must move away from the naïve idea of model democracy.” Instead, he and his colleagues call for a model meritocracy, prioritizing, at times, results from models known to have more realistic warming rates."

https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-models-exaggerates-i...
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #166 - Sep 4th, 2023 at 1:16pm
 
I see JM now believes a climate modeller is a climate scientist. Smiley
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #167 - Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm
 
Lucless Lee wrote:

Quote:
And nowhere was the GBR 93% bleached. And of course corals have been around for millions of years. Sometimes hotter and sometimes cooler, but now it is thermageddon. Roll Eyes

Edit: "Reconstructing Four Centuries of Temperature-Induced Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef"

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00283/full


None of which says the GBR isn't under threat from  AGW You like to trot out articles thinking they support your case against AGW but it's clear you can't or refuse to understand them.

From the mouths of the authors of the article you quoted:

"Over the past 400 years, the time span covered by our cores, Great Barrier Reef corals have shown evidence that they can recover from widespread bleaching events. However, since the 1800s, both the number of such events and the number of corals involved have increased, indicating they may not be able to cope well with sustained increases in temperature, and are possibly reaching a tipping point."

https://theconversation.com/the-great-barrier-reef-has-been-bleaching-for-at-lea...


Quote:
Quote:
Linus wrote on Sep 1st, 2023 at 1:12am:
"Climate models are often attacked, but most of the time they're remarkably good



So that is why Hausfather etc say the models run too hot?


Linus did not say it, Hausfather said it. Hausfather said that climate models are remarkably good. He embraces them unlike you. Can you read or not? Moreover, can you read without going cross-eyed and confusing who is saying what?

Recognising that models are imperfect doesn't mean they are wrong. The article I pointed you at makes that clear. Models are being improved all the time and they are getting a lot of what is going on right.

By the way Lee, have you and the Qld senator figured out how to pass your "bicycle pump" theory on global warming through peer-review?   Smiley


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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #168 - Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:44pm
 
Lisa Jones wrote:

Quote:
Nope! Linus is 10000% a Mong (shared btwn Bwian and Groggy etc).

Their ridiculous Mong personas are now way too easy to spot: For starters ALL Manure Mound Mongs lie AND deflect in the face of brutal truth. Anyway ... I’m happy to discuss Climate Change with you Lee. And with Freediver.


Well, you've had half a dozen cracks at trying to pin me to some or other ID and you haven't been able to do it. I only use this one ID- LINUS. 

And I'm still waiting to hear your views on climate change. All you have done thus far is carry on like a deranged, paranoid lunatic that's lost touch with reality

Oh, didn't you see that even Freediver keeps a barge poll distance from Lee on climate change. Freediver almost fell over laughing at Lee embracing a "bicycle pump" theory of global warming proposed by some crackpot senator from Queensland.

Sure, you and Lee go discuss climate change in between your doses of Thorazine.  Roll Eyes
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #169 - Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:54pm
 
Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
None of which says the GBR isn't under threat from  AGW You like to trot out articles thinking they support your case against AGW but it's clear you can't or refuse to understand them.


You were the one posted about the GBR being 93%  bleached, and now it is my fault. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
"Over the past 400 years, the time span covered by our cores, Great Barrier Reef corals have shown evidence that they can recover from widespread bleaching events. However, since the 1800s, both the number of such events and the number of corals involved have increased, indicating they may not be able to cope well with sustained increases in temperature, and are possibly reaching a tipping point."


So much wombling. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Linus did not say it, Hausfather said it.


I never said you did. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Recognising that models are imperfect doesn't mean they are wrong.


If they are imperfect, they are by definition wrong. A maximum of only one can be right.  Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Models are being improved all the time and they are getting a lot of what is going on right.


That doesn't mean they are fit for purpose. That's why they want to drop the ensemble approach. An ensemble can never be right because of all the ones that are wrong. The only one close to being right is the Russian one, which doesn't have a tropospheric hotspot. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
By the way Lee, have you and the Qld senator figured out how to pass your "bicycle pump" theory on global warming through peer-review?   


So you don't believe the science that says atmospheric pressure is increasing? You denier you. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #170 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm
 
lee wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:54pm:
Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
None of which says the GBR isn't under threat from  AGW You like to trot out articles thinking they support your case against AGW but it's clear you can't or refuse to understand them.


You were the one posted about the GBR being 93%  bleached, and now it is my fault. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
"Over the past 400 years, the time span covered by our cores, Great Barrier Reef corals have shown evidence that they can recover from widespread bleaching events. However, since the 1800s, both the number of such events and the number of corals involved have increased, indicating they may not be able to cope well with sustained increases in temperature, and are possibly reaching a tipping point."


So much wombling. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Linus did not say it, Hausfather said it.


I never said you did. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Recognising that models are imperfect doesn't mean they are wrong.


If they are imperfect, they are by definition wrong. A maximum of only one can be right.  Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
Models are being improved all the time and they are getting a lot of what is going on right.


That doesn't mean they are fit for purpose. That's why they want to drop the ensemble approach. An ensemble can never be right because of all the ones that are wrong. The only one close to being right is the Russian one, which doesn't have a tropospheric hotspot. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 4th, 2023 at 7:30pm:
By the way Lee, have you and the Qld senator figured out how to pass your "bicycle pump" theory on global warming through peer-review?   


So you don't believe the science that says atmospheric pressure is increasing? You denier you. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


1. I was not posting about the GBR being 93% bleached, I was posting articles about how Moore and Linzden misrepresent climate science/scientists or get the science wrong. You seized one aspect of one article in your constant lame attempts to dismiss/discredit AGW.

2. "Womblng"? You cited authors to make a case that the GBR was not in danger from AGW. Contrary to this  lame attempt, the authors did not support your case. They themselves recognise the danger.

3. And you again, produced a climate scientist, Haufather, thinking he supported your denialism and I demonstrated from his own words he does not.

4. Contrary to what you say, the models confirm AGW and have been very useful. And if you stick your head out the window you can see it happening: retreating glaciers, retreating Arctic ice, melting Antarctic ice sheets, increasing temperatures, rising sea levels and acidification thereof, increasing extreme  weather events etc.

5. With respect atmospheric pressure, I told you before in another thread that it plays a minor role in the unfolding AGW. It's not a sole determinant like you and the crackpot senator appear to think.

Luckily, governments around the world are listening to climate scientists and not the idiots you dig up( and choose to follow), who can't see the forest for the trees.



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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #171 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:51pm
 
Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
1. I was not posting about the GBR being 93% bleached, I was posting articles about how Moore and Linzden misrepresent climate science/scientists or get the science wrong. You seized one aspect of one article in your constant lame attempts to dismiss/discredit AGW.


It was the article you linked to, own it. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
2. "Womblng"? You cited authors to make a case that the GBR was not in danger from AGW. Contrary to this  lame attempt, the authors did not support your case. They themselves recognise the danger.


They went from science to necromancy. Seeing as they start in 1620, that bleaching occurred in the LIA. So both cool and warm causes bleaching. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
3. And you again, produced a climate scientist, Haufather, thinking he supported your denialism and I demonstrated from his own words he does not.


You didn't read his 2022 paper did you. The one with Gavin Schmidt.

lee wrote on Sep 1st, 2023 at 1:23pm:
"Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of  the community should do the same.

    Zeke Hausfather, Kate Marvel, Gavin A. Schmidt, John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Mark Zelinka"

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2


or

https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-models-exaggerates-i...

Same author different conclusion. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
4. Contrary to what you say, the models confirm AGW and have been very useful. And if you stick your head out the window you can see it happening: retreating glaciers, retreating Arctic ice, melting Antarctic ice sheets, increasing temperatures, rising sea levels and acidification thereof, increasing extreme  weather events etc.


So how do models "confirm" AGW. What is the seminal paper that concluded that?  Models can confirm nothing. Garbage In/Garbage Out. GIGO. Roll Eyes

So we are warming coming out of the LIA. Who knew? Grin Grin Grin Grin

It is about the same temperature as twe Roman Warm Period - where Hannibal took elephants over the Alps, the Minoan warm period and Holocene Optimum.

The models only confirm we are warming. Not AGW. IF it is AGW when did it start? Back in 1880 when CO2is estimated to have been 280ppm or 292ppm as the paper you listed insisted?

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
5. With respect atmospheric pressure, I told you before in another thread that it plays a minor role in the unfolding AGW. It's not a sole determinant like you and the crackpot senator appear to think.


If it is such a minor role why is it in the models? Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
Luckily, governments around the world are listening to climate scientists and not the idiots you dig up( and choose to follow), who can't see the forest for the trees.


So now Hausfather is an idiot? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

But tell us more about the "journalist" behind Mediabiasfactcheck. Wink
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #172 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm
 
lee wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:51pm:
Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
1. I was not posting about the GBR being 93% bleached, I was posting articles about how Moore and Linzden misrepresent climate science/scientists or get the science wrong. You seized one aspect of one article in your constant lame attempts to dismiss/discredit AGW.


It was the article you linked to, own it. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
2. "Womblng"? You cited authors to make a case that the GBR was not in danger from AGW. Contrary to this  lame attempt, the authors did not support your case. They themselves recognise the danger.


They went from science to necromancy. Seeing as they start in 1620, that bleaching occurred in the LIA. So both cool and warm causes bleaching. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
3. And you again, produced a climate scientist, Haufather, thinking he supported your denialism and I demonstrated from his own words he does not.


You didn't read his 2022 paper did you. The one with Gavin Schmidt.

lee wrote on Sep 1st, 2023 at 1:23pm:
"Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of  the community should do the same.

    Zeke Hausfather, Kate Marvel, Gavin A. Schmidt, John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Mark Zelinka"

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2


or

https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-models-exaggerates-i...

Same author different conclusion. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
4. Contrary to what you say, the models confirm AGW and have been very useful. And if you stick your head out the window you can see it happening: retreating glaciers, retreating Arctic ice, melting Antarctic ice sheets, increasing temperatures, rising sea levels and acidification thereof, increasing extreme  weather events etc.


So how do models "confirm" AGW. What is the seminal paper that concluded that?  Models can confirm nothing. Garbage In/Garbage Out. GIGO. Roll Eyes

So we are warming coming out of the LIA. Who knew? Grin Grin Grin Grin

It is about the same temperature as twe Roman Warm Period - where Hannibal took elephants over the Alps, the Minoan warm period and Holocene Optimum.

The models only confirm we are warming. Not AGW. IF it is AGW when did it start? Back in 1880 when CO2is estimated to have been 280ppm or 292ppm as the paper you listed insisted?

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
5. With respect atmospheric pressure, I told you before in another thread that it plays a minor role in the unfolding AGW. It's not a sole determinant like you and the crackpot senator appear to think.


If it is such a minor role why is it in the models? Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 2:25pm:
Luckily, governments around the world are listening to climate scientists and not the idiots you dig up( and choose to follow), who can't see the forest for the trees.


So now Hausfather is an idiot? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

But tell us more about the "journalist" behind Mediabiasfactcheck. Wink



1. Poor try. If you scroll back, anyone can see I was addressing the post about Linzden and Moore. Like your pals, you like to cherry pick and misrepresent. Linzden and Moore were debunked.

2. And you still overlook the fact the authors you chose to debunk danger to the GBR in their own words acknowledged that rapidly rising temperatures threaten the reef. A reference was provided.

3. Models and the reality they reflect debunk the denialists you follow. The models indicate that if we continue increasing CO2 emissions we are heading to a very uncomfortable future.

Here read about why you're full of crap, Lee, in respect of climate models:

https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-climate-change-models-are-our-best...

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-fut...

4. We are supposed to be in a cooling period, yet temperatures are rising. And do note everything else I noted about what's going on.

5. No, Hausfather isn't an idiot but he and Shmidt made an idiot out of you.  Roll Eyes

""By and large our models have gotten it right, plus or minus a little bit," said Hausfather, a UC Berkeley scientist who is climate and energy director at the Breakthrough Institute. "If they get it wrong, it's slightly on the warm side, but I wouldn't read too much into that.""

Unlike you, Lee, they see the forest from the trees. You don't know what you're talking about Lee, and it seems that in your case it's IIGO- Information In Garbage Out.

6. Atmospheric pressure is a component of modelling amongst a host of factors. That you and the senator you latched onto are fixated on  it as a primary determinant is just plain dumb.



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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #173 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 4:46pm
 
Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
1. Poor try.


So you don't want to own it. Roll EyesLinus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
Linzden and Moore were debunked.

By whom?

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
2. And you still overlook the fact the authors you chose to debunk danger to the GBR in their own words acknowledged that rapidly rising temperatures threaten the reef. A reference was provided.


You still can't accept that corals bleach under cooling and warming conditions. It is historical fact. Millions of years they have survived. Both warmer and cooler than now. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
3. Models and the reality they reflect debunk the denialists you follow.



Models ONLY reflect reality when they are programmed in that reality. The models have too many parameters.

"Fermi evokes his friend von Neumann who, when asking him how many arbitrary parameters he used for his calculations, replied, "With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." By this he meant that the Fermi simulations relied on too many input parameters, presupposing an overfitting phenomenon.[1]'

Source wiki.

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
The models indicate that if we continue increasing CO2 emissions we are heading to a very uncomfortable future.


Which of course doesn't make it so. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
Here read about why you're full of crap, Lee, in respect of climate models:


Oh dear. NASA believes that there is a 97% consensus.

Here is the Cooke et al survey -

https://skepticalscience.com/tcp.php?t=search&s=a&a=&c=&e=1&yf=1991&yt=2011

Now that is set to "Explicitly endorses and quantifies AGW as +50%"

The results? 65 papers. Out of 11,944. That's 0.5%. Scary eh?  Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
4. We are supposed to be in a cooling period, yet temperatures are rising.



Who said we are supposed to be in a cooling period? Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
""By and large our models have gotten it right, plus or minus a little bit," said Hausfather, a UC Berkeley scientist who is climate and energy director at the Breakthrough Institute. "If they get it wrong, it's slightly on the warm side, but I wouldn't read too much into that.""


And as time goers by the errors increase. Roll Eyes

That's from your paper. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Try the later one. Wink

"Researchers have since tracked down the causes of the too-hot models, which include those produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the U.S. Department of Energy, the United Kingdom’s Met Office, and Environment and Climate Change Canada. They often relate to the way models render clouds; one result has been excessive predicted warming in the tropics."


Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 3:49pm:
6. Atmospheric pressure is a component of modelling amongst a host of factors.


And it is parameterised. Computer games. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #174 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 5:01pm
 
From your think progress site -

"That idea of course meant ignored the myriad observations that climate impacts are occurring faster, not slower, than the models had predicted, and that therefore the multiple strong amplifying feedbacks are overwhelming whatever few week negative feedbacks occur in the climate system — see Study: Water-vapor feedback is “strong and positive,” so we face “warming of several degrees Celsius” (and below)."

There are NO observations of climate impacts occurring faster. Clouds are water-vapour.

Oh I see they "inferred" it. Roll Eyes

If you think different, post the proof. Roll Eyes
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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #175 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm
 
1.How about you read the links I provided instead of asking stupid questions which indicate that you did not read them.

2. The models and the reality around you, says it is so. Thousands of climate scientists around the world, virtually all, come to the conclusion it is so, clown. But you and the crackpots you grasp know better.  Roll Eyes Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

3. In respect of all your garbage on climate models. The scientists you quoted in your lame attempt to debunk climate models, embrace them. Your high school debating "skills" have let you down. And more specifically,

"Overall, climate models remain incredibly successful research tools, and nothing about this “too hot” generation invalidates the tenets of climate science, says Kate Marvel, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and co-author of the commentary. The greenhouse effect is still warming the planet. Ice is melting, seas are rising, and droughts are becoming more frequent in some areas. "

https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-models-exaggerates-impacts-global-warming

4. God, you're trying. Who said we should be in a cooling period? Look here:

"In 1998, researchers from the US University of Massachusetts Amherst and the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona published a study

showing the average annual global temperature over the past 1,000 years.

To work out earlier temperatures going back half a millennium before the thermometer was invented, they studied so-called proxy or natural records — measurements of ice cores, tree rings and corals.

The outcome illustrated little variation for many hundreds of years until the 20th century, when there was suddenly a sharp rise.

In 2013, research published in the journal Science analyzed even earlier temperatures, dating back 11,000 years. The conclusion was the same: our planet has warmed faster in the past century than at any time since the end of the last ice age.

The study also revealed that for the last 2,000 years Earth has actually been in a natural cooling period in terms of its position relative to the sun.

But this natural cooling has gone unregistered due to unprecedented warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, the paper explains. "

https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-is-global-warming-merely-a-natural-cycle/a-57831350

5. Is there any connection between your brain and mouth? Atmospheric pressure, clouds or whatever else you want to throw under "parameterised" have proven their effectiveness regardless of that. And you haven't been able to prove otherwise. The scientists you thought supported you, didn't. Now that was laughable.
Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


6. Now I'm convinced you're a cretin. Why would they say climate impacts are happening faster than predicted? Because, dopey, they looked at their predictions and looked at what is actually happening.


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00585-7

https://phys.org/news/2022-05-reveals-climate-rapid.html

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-faster-than-predicted/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15550-z


And the website  you quoted in trying to argue your case ie, "https://skepticalscience.com/" is  entirely devoted to debunking AGW denialism/"scepticism". You seem to have a penchant in finding scientists, crackpots, papers and websites that backfire on you.  Grin Grin Grin

You haven't got a clue and you don't even read or contextualise what you throw up as supporting your case. Everything has backfired on you so far , and all we're left looking at is your dopey grin. Roll Eyes


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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #176 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:56pm
 
Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
1.How about you read the links I provided instead of asking stupid questions which indicate that you did not read them.


I quoted from them. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
2. The models and the reality around you, says it is so.


The models say no such thing. The models can't tell what the temperature was a year ago. Let alone a year one hundred years ago. Roll Eyes.

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
Thousands of climate scientists around the world, virtually all, come to the conclusion it is so, clown.


You mean quite apart from those scientists that are shills for fossil fuel? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
3. In respect of all your garbage on climate models. The scientists you quoted in your lame attempt to debunk climate models, embrace


Oh dear an appeal to authority. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
The greenhouse effect is still warming the planet. Ice is melting, seas are rising, and droughts are becoming more frequent in some areas. "


And the greenhouse effect has always been there. The seas have been rising for hundreds of years, And the magical gas CO2 can determine which areas of land get to be drought affected. OK. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
"In 1998, researchers from the US University of Massachusetts Amherst and the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona published a study

showing the average annual global temperature over the past 1,000 years.


Oh the holy tree rings. They measure precipitation more than warming. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
The outcome illustrated little variation for many hundreds of years until the 20th century, when there was suddenly a sharp rise.


So we never had a MWP or an LIA? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
But this natural cooling has gone unregistered due to unprecedented warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, the paper explains. "



OOH unprecedented? 1.5C in 100 years is unprecedented? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
Atmospheric pressure, clouds or whatever else you want to throw under "parameterised" have proven their effectiveness regardless of that.


So tell us which peer-reviewed paper says that clouds are net positive? Wink

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
Why would they say climate impacts are happening faster than predicted? Because, dopey, they looked at their predictions and looked at what is actually happening.


So which extreme weather events are happening faster than predicted. Roll Eyes

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
https://phys.org/news/2022-05-reveals-climate-rapid.html


You didn't read the paper. What a con.

"New data reveals climate change might be more rapid than predicted"

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00585-7


Oh dear. The iPCC says nothing like that at all. The IPCC don't do science. They review science. So tell us which peer-reviewed paper said that. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

This is what the IPCC says, with the appropriate references -

Floods - In summary there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale. Confidence is in general low in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence because of a limited number of studies and differences in the results of these studies, and large modelling uncertainties.

IPCC  AR6 WG1 11.5.4


Droughts - There is medium confidence in the ability of ESMs to simulate trends and anomalies in precipitation deficits and AED, and also medium confidence in the ability of ESMs and hydrological models to simulate trends and anomalies in soil moisture and streamflow deficits, on global and regional scales

IPCC AR6 WG1 11.6.3.6


Cyclones - There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency- or intensity-based metrics due to changes in the technology used to collect the best-track data.

IPCC AR6 WG1 11.7.1.2

Cyclones - The SREX (Chapter 3) concluded that there is low confidence in observed long-term (40 years or more) trends in TC intensity, frequency, and duration

IPCC AR6 WG1 11.7

Now that is what the IPCC said. Anything else is bunkum. Wink

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-faster-than-predicted/


Oh dear A magazine. Hardly scientific. Wink

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15550-z


Climate change did it? Not fertiliser use. Goodo. Grin Grin Grin Grin

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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #177 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 7:02pm
 
Continued -

Linus wrote on Sep 5th, 2023 at 6:29pm:
And the website  you quoted in trying to argue your case ie, "https://skepticalscience.com/" is  entirely devoted to debunking AGW denialism/"scepticism". You seem to have a penchant in finding scientists, crackpots, papers and websites that backfire on you.


And you didn't find what I posted. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

The reason I quoted Cook et al 2013 was because it was fatally flawed. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #178 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 10:11pm
 
Lee wrote:

Quote:
I quoted from them


And you failed to make any effective counterpoint.

Lee wrote:

Quote:
The models say no such thing. The models can't tell what the temperature was a year ago. Let alone a year one hundred years ago.


You'd be delusional. Even Hausfather who you used in a vain attempt to dismiss climate models, refuted you, as did others I quoted. You keep returning to your vomit as if it's new. You've been debunked but lo here we are again. Are you playing a scratched record or is your brain scratched? Roll Eyes

Lee wrote:

Quote:
You mean quite apart from those scientists that are shills for fossil fuel? 


Yes, the overwhelming consensus of climate scientist who refute the fossil fuel shills you have pathetically dragged out to support your case. And let me add, even the pro-climate change scientists you thought supported your points, didn't.  Roll Eyes

Lee wrote:

Quote:
Oh dear an appeal to authority


Are you deranged? You appealed to them to support your case. I found they didn't. Accept you failed.

Lee wrote:

Quote:
And the greenhouse effect has always been there. The seas have been rising for hundreds of years, And the magical gas CO2 can determine which areas of land get to be drought affected. OK.


The greenhouse effect has been enhanced by anthropogenic CO2 emissions since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. Climate scientists studying this  "magical gas" through time and space know enough to assert that if it keeps increasing: droughts, floods and extreme weather events will increase. Their modelling is constantly improving and directed to being able to reach great specificity in prediction.

Pointing out that the modelling does not satisfy your need for specificity does not negate the theory of AGW and what it entails.


Lee wrote:

Quote:
Oh the holy tree rings. They measure precipitation more than warming.


You've misrepresented the quote. Tree ring data were studied in conjunction with ice cores and corals to reach high degree of confidence about the cooling of the Earth. And this expected cooling is consistent with what we know through Milankovich's theory.And you think you can fob off the study and all the science associated with it  with one unsupported sentence. Do better.  Roll Eyes


Lee wrote:

Quote:
So we never had a MWP or an LIA?


The researchers are talking about a general cooling trend. This does not mean we didn't have or couldn't have had an MWP or LIA.  Roll Eyes

Lee wrote:

Quote:
OOH unprecedented? 1.5C in 100 years is unprecedented?


Sigh. Climate scientists here are talking about limiting the average global temperature rise to no more than 1.5c above the average pre-industrial global temperature.

Lee wrote:

Quote:
So tell us which peer-reviewed paper says that clouds are net positive?


I did not say they were net positive. You brought up the question of clouds. As it stands, clouds can have a positive and negative feedback. Low level clouds such as stratocumulus clouds can have a warming effect by trapping heat radiated from the Earth's surface at night.

The only point you had was the parameterisation of clouds. Because of this uncertainty in climate models, you thought that was enough to discount them completely. And you were given references earlier that falsified your assertion.

Lee wrote:

Quote:
So which extreme weather events are happening faster than predicted


Roll Eyes

Here's a quote from one of them;

" Here we present data from a twelve-year monitoring program, involving 6200 observations of 166 estuaries along >1100 kilometres of the Australian coastline encompassing all estuary morphologies. Estuary temperatures increased by 2.16 °C on average over 12 years, at a rate of 0.2 °C year−1, with waters acidifying at a rate of 0.09 pH units and freshening at 0.086 PSU year−1. The response of estuaries to climate change is dependent on their morphology. Lagoons and rivers are warming and acidifying at the fastest rate because of shallow average depths and limited oceanic exchange. The changes measured are an order of magnitude faster than predicted by global ocean and atmospheric models, indicating that existing global models may not be useful to predict change in estuaries."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15550-z


Lee wrote:

Quote:
You didn't read the paper. What a con.


You glossed over the above paper from which I quoted from.  Roll Eyes

Ok you didn't like:

Quote:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00585-7



Heavens, how did the prestigious scientific journal Nature allow this in?

Climate change is hitting the planet faster than scientists originally thought


I think the only bunkum has been coming from you- pretty clear now.


Lee wrote:

Quote:
Climate change did it? Not fertiliser use. Goodo


Well, blow me down, we have researchers on one hand who analysed this with the use of 12 years of data and 6200 observations and written a paper, and from you we have  a speculation about fertilizer and a sarcastic "Goodo". Sorry, a sarcastic Goodo, and the speculation you thought you warranted it, doesn't pass muster. Where's your proof that it's fertilizer, do provide me with a peer reviewed paper. Chop chop.  Roll Eyes

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Re: Climate Change Debate
Reply #179 - Sep 5th, 2023 at 10:26pm
 
Continued...

Lee wrote:

Quote:
And you didn't find what I posted.


The reason I quoted Cook et al 2013 was because it was fatally flawed


You gave me a reference to a list with 2 pages of listed articles. Why didn't you give an exact reference? It doesn't change the fact that the entire website you used is devoted to collecting and debunking the works of climate denialists you support and providing evidence for AGW. I'm glad you referenced it though. I hope others check your bullshit with it.

To merely cherry pick one paper that you didn't even discuss, nor reference properly and just say it's flawed doesn't amount to squat- like your" Goodo".And one paper out of hundreds of papers debunking denialists doesn't make a summer for you. Roll Eyes

Your AGW denialists are all flawed.  Grin Grin Grin
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