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3rd largest current account deficit? (Read 14623 times)
enviro
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #15 - Mar 6th, 2007 at 6:18pm
 
Here's a question Sense

Does this mean the Euro Dollar could possibly replace the US Dollar by being more 'wanted' as you suggest and if so the US would collapse and probably take the rest of the world with them? Shocked
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sense(Guest)
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #16 - Mar 6th, 2007 at 6:28pm
 
enviro - I don't think it is an issue of one currency replacing another. CBs everywhere hold both Euros and US$. Both will continue. But a devaluation of the US$ is no bad thing from the US point of view. I'm sure they'd welcome it. Especially their exporters. There are plenty of US haters about predicting the collapse of the US - its just wishful thinking on their part. We need a strong US and we should support them.
And one more point. Your post said "Euro dollar". I think you mean the Euro. Eurodollars are something else entirely. They are units which track the US$ but are not issued by the US Fed - a bit technical.
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enviro
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #17 - Mar 6th, 2007 at 6:43pm
 
Quote:
enviro - I don't think it is an issue of one currency replacing another. CBs everywhere hold both Euros and US$. Both will continue. But a devaluation of the US$ is no bad thing from the US point of view. I'm sure they'd welcome it. Especially their exporters. There are plenty of US haters about predicting the collapse of the US - its just wishful thinking on their part. We need a strong US and we should support them.
And one more point. Your post said "Euro dollar". I think you mean the Euro. Eurodollars are something else entirely. They are units which track the US$ but are not issued by the US Fed - a bit technical.

Huh

What about if arab nations were to exchange their US dollars for all Euros wouldn't this cause a large murmer in the US economy and, like the stock market, cause a bullrun?
Roll Eyes
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AUShole
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #18 - Mar 6th, 2007 at 7:31pm
 
Sense,

I accept the exchange rate example was not well thought out. Guess I wont be an economics teacher!

Yes, I have worked for exporters, but none of them were in raw materials. They were all manufacturers, and the trades were predominantly in AUD.

Many Australian economists consider the high CAD a problem because of our propensity for high debt levels. Are you saying they are all wrong? How does that reconcile with the OECD information you quoted?

How does your argument on resource exports work, if there are capacity constraints in the economy?

Are you saying it is NOT a problem with Australia having the third highest CAD in the world, and the worst in Australia's history? That was the subject of the thread.

If a high CAD is not a problem, why is it getting so much attention?

I have no answers for these questions. Maybe someone else does!
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freediver
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #19 - Mar 6th, 2007 at 7:34pm
 
If a high CAD is not a problem, why measure it?

Think of it as a 'work for the dole' scheme for economists.
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #20 - Mar 6th, 2007 at 8:49pm
 
enviro - The Arab nations are in no position to do as you suggest. The so-called US dollars held by the Arab nations are for the most part in US Treasury Bonds. These can't be cashed with the US. They will be redeemed on the due date which for some of them is 30 years in the future. When the US issued them they knew full well when they were to be redeemed and they have and always will meet their commitments. The Arabs can sell them of course to someone else but this doesn't involve the US. And of course the US bonds pay rather more interest than Euro Bonds so why would they want to sell them? This is all alot of nonsense spread by the US and Jew haters to be found on every forum. I'm fed up of it. I'll not be discussing it further. It's a non-issue.
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enviro
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Hi Sense
Reply #21 - Mar 6th, 2007 at 9:03pm
 
You've got a thing about jew haters. Personally I don't know any jewish people so it is a bit hard for me to judge the Jews. Because I am a christian I would never be able to understand why the Jews never accepted Jesus as the son of God. In Australia we accept any religion that does not conflict with the governing laws of this country. You and Aus Nat should be able to have some great debates having opposite beliefs. I'm sure this is why your on the forum anyway, for a bit of brain stimulation that is.

Thanks for the info too as I was unaware of how these treasury bonds worked. I didn't know that the US borrowed all this money for 30 years. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of who they owe money to.
Smiley
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #22 - Mar 7th, 2007 at 10:56am
 
With any issue where the public doesn't understand the fundamentals, you always get cranks and scaremongerers saying it will cause some sort of disaster, be it science, economics, engineering, whatever.
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High $A tough for exporters: Costello
Reply #23 - Mar 21st, 2007 at 7:23pm
 
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/High-A-tough-for-exporters-Costello/2007/03/21/1174153142945.html

Treasurer Peter Costello said a high Australian dollar does make it difficult for the country's exporters, but he would not be drawn on the outlook for interest rates.

"The fact that the dollar is high does make it hard for Australian exporters. It's doubly difficult is you are an agricultural producer because you are also dealing with drought conditions," Mr Costello told reporters.

"But as you know we have a floating exchange rate. It moves in relation to trade flows, the global economy and interest rates. There are a lot of factors that go to putting the exchange rate to where it is."

"But the reality is the government's policy is to allow that to trade in an open market."

The Australian dollar struck a fresh 10-year high above 80 US cents this week, amid speculation that the central bank will need to raise interest rates again, possibly in the next few months, to head off inflation pressures.

Asked whether the market was overreacting to the prospect of another interest rate rise, Mr Costello said: "I won't be commenting on future movements in interest rates."
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #24 - Mar 21st, 2007 at 7:34pm
 
AUShole wrote on Mar 3rd, 2007 at 2:21pm:
Wikipedia is a good reference point, but you shouldn't rely on it as fact.

Just like any encyclopaedia, so as such, it is a good encyclopaedia, good enough anyway given it is free and it is a wiki. Most questionable pages are flagged as either poorly referenced, or containing bias if that is the case.

AUShole wrote on Mar 3rd, 2007 at 2:21pm:
The biggest problem with wikipedia is that it is not accepted by academics. The review process is performed by people who are not recognised as experts in their field. This is why it cannot be directly quoted for research purposes.

Much of it is put together by experts, well often anyway. It is not recognised by academics as a credible source but no encyclopaedia should be! I would consider my lecturers questionable if they accepted encyclopaedia references in my assignments.
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #25 - Mar 21st, 2007 at 8:17pm
 
Enviro had a point about the euro.  There has been some speculation that one of the reasons we invaded Iraq, collected their bounty of $23 billion, recycled it through the US treasury then flooded Iraq with American dollars is because Iraq was  changing to the euro.

Iran wants to open a new trading centre "Oil Bourse" to compete with two western oil trading centres.  They will be using euros and apparently if this happens and Iran starts trading oil with euros - this will cause the fragile US economy to collapse. This is another reason why it's possible Iran will be attacked shortly under the guise of their increasing nuclear capacity.

Quote:
The Iranians are about to commit an "offense" far greater than Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro of Iraq’s oil exports in the fall of 2000. Numerous articles have revealed Pentagon planning for operations against Iran as early as 2005. While the publicly stated reasons will be over Iran's nuclear ambitions, there are unspoken macroeconomic drivers explaining the Real Reasons regarding the 2nd stage of petrodollar warfare - Iran's upcoming euro-based oil Bourse.

In 2005-2006, The Tehran government has a developed a plan to begin competing with New York's NYMEX and London's IPE with respect to international oil trades - using a euro-denominated international oil-trading mechanism. This means that without some form of US intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade. Given U.S. debt levels and the stated neoconservative project for U.S. global domination, Tehran's objective constitutes an obvious encroachment on U.S. dollar supremacy in the international oil market

http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html



At the moment I believe, most of the foreign debt for the US and Australia is held by Japan and China - and it can be called in at any time.

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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #26 - Mar 25th, 2007 at 10:02am
 
Were these speculations from a credible source?
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #27 - Mar 25th, 2007 at 11:32am
 
Of course Freediver.  Go google it yourself and have a look at all the articles.  It may appear to be  a conspiracy to the neo conservative supporters - but these articles are based on occurrences in the Middle East caused by the US foreign policy.

Until Bush, Cheney and their associates are tried for war crimes, misleading congress and the public about Iraq, condoning the torture of prisoners, authorised but illegal wiretaps and violations of treaties this will remain speculation.
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #28 - Mar 30th, 2007 at 6:14am
 
It's not so much that it is a conspiracy, it's that it doesn't make sense. Some of the claims may be factually or logically true, but they seem to be implying it will have fallout. It won't. It's like it's the opposite of a conspiracy. A plot to bake some bread.
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Re: 3rd largest current account deficit?
Reply #29 - Apr 1st, 2007 at 4:20pm
 
Quote:
A plot to bake some bread.


LOTS of bread!  Grin
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