Australian Politics Forum - This person is our finance minister

buzzanddidj Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 14248 Eganstown, via Daylesford, VIC Gender:	Re: This person is our finance minister Reply #45 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 12:28am Sit down Mute the telly Turn up the sound on the PC And have a GOOD LOOK at who tells you how to think
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salad in Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 5941	Re: This person is our finance minister Reply #46 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:12am cods wrote on Apr 11^th, 2011 at 8:58pm: Want to offer a guess as to what the tax will be ? not you as well with this childish colour attention grab salad give it away will you. thank you C'mon cods, no room for a little humour in your life? Can't you recognise burlesque when you see it?
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salad in Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 5941	Re: This person is our finance minister Reply #47 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:16am buzzanddidj wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 12:28am: Sit down Mute the telly Turn up the sound on the PC And have a GOOD LOOK at who tells you how to think I thought it was shock jocks who were DRIVING AND FINANCING the debate. Please make up your mind or stick to the script.
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gizmo_2655

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Re: This person is our finance minister
Reply #48 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:18am

astro_surf wrote on Apr 11^th, 2011 at 10:24pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Apr 11^th, 2011 at 10:01pm:

Astro, predicting the orbit of a planet (either Uranus OR Earth) is entirely different to predicting what the temperature will be in 30, 50 or 100 years time...

The solar system is a gigantic 'clock'......We know where Uranus will be in 200 years because Uranus orbits the Sun in the same way, and at the same speed ALL the time, so predicting it's position is simply arithmetic....you can work it out by counting on your fingers..

And calculating the radiative forcing of a gas is relatively simple too, Svente Arrenhius did it with an abacus 120 years ago.

Quote:

But since there has never been any 'human caused' warming before this time, there's no historical data to indicate the increase rate, a maximum temperature or a duration....it's ALL guess work...

Actually, there has, there is good evidence now suggesting that domesticating animals led to a marked increase in methane that prevented the planet slipping into another glacial period...

But that aside, whether a climatic change is caused by humans or not is irrelevant, the climate responds to a small number of forcings, change the value of one or more and the climate will change correspondingly.

We have very good data on the role CO2 has played in numerous climate changes, we know for instance that the changes in solar radiation that triggered the last interglacial was nowhere near enough to warm the planet to the degree that we enjoyed throughout the Holocene. The only way to explain the degree that the planet 'recovers' from ice ages in the way that it does is if the maths used to calculate the radiative forcing of CO2 is about right.

Quote:

The scientists THINK the warming will continue at 'X' rate, for 'X' years and reach 'X' temperature by year 'Y'....but there's no hard data to back it up, the only way to prove it is in hindsight...

Yes there is, reams of it, from the historical data referred to above, to the satellite data that confirms there is more energy entering the climate system than is coming out of it, to the experimental data that confirms the rate at which CO2 reemits infra-red etc etc etc

And no climate scientist says that it will be X temperature, they say there is a very high chance that if emissions continue at X rate then average temperatures will increase between a range of Y and Z.

Your missing my point about historical data.....I meant previous completed cycles, not just measurements made within a cycle...

Using the Uranus example, we know where it will be in it's orbit because it's almost 3/4 of the way through it's third orbit, since it's discovery.....

But how many 'complete' ACC cycles have there been in history?? How many times has the climate cycle moved from cold to hot and back to cold through human action????

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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philperth2010 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21097 Perth Gender:	Re: This person is our finance minister Reply #49 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:35am If climate change is Crap why is Tony Abbott wasting billions of dollars on a policy that will not work......Perhaps Coalition supporters would like to answer this question???
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gizmo_2655

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Re: This person is our finance minister
Reply #50 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:41am

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:35am:

If climate change is Crap why is Tony Abbott wasting billions of dollars on a policy that will not work......Perhaps Coalition supporters would like to answer this question???

Wink

It's unusual for a politician to make policy about something half the voters believe in?????

Julia Gillard is an atheist, but her stance on abortion and same-sex marriage is in line with the various religions... That's a similar thing..

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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
Bobbythebat

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chicken_lipsforme Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 7090 Townsville NQ Gender:	Re: This person is our finance minister Reply #51 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:45am philperth2010 wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:35am: If climate change is Crap why is Tony Abbott wasting billions of dollars on a policy that will not work......Perhaps Coalition supporters would like to answer this question??? Abbott's a politician, and as such he is simply hedging his bets.
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salad in

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Re: This person is our finance minister
Reply #52 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:46am

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:35am:

If climate change is Crap why is Tony Abbott wasting billions of dollars on a policy that will not work......Perhaps Coalition supporters would like to answer this question???

Wink

I'm no coalition supporter (I regard all Australian politicians as filth) but it's a bit late to be worrying about money isn't it. The guy who turned O'Possum Bay into the capital of Tasmania and claimed about $43,000 from the taxpayers' purse should have been eating prison food. Instead he's in our federal parliament. The same goes for that NP twit who helped himself to taxpayers' dosh.

Don't insult me by turning up now and saying your concerned about the waste of dosh.

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The ALP, the progressive party, the party of ideas, the workers' friend, is the only Australian political party to roast four young Australians in roof cavities. SHAME! SHAME! SHAME!

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cods

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Re: This person is our finance minister
Reply #53 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:47am

philperth2010 wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:35am:

If climate change is Crap why is Tony Abbott wasting billions of dollars on a policy that will not work......Perhaps Coalition supporters would like to answer this question???

Wink

phil how many times do you ask this question...

for one stupid signed an agreement that Australia would lower its emmissions... it was called Kyoto from memory...........

for another it seems to be paramount to many that this is accomplished...call it political call it what you like..

but the Greens have set a PANIC or tsunami in motion and like it or not all countries are caught up in it.....

Australia it seems more than others... well to me anyway...

havent seen any other countries have rallies defending CARBON TAXes have you???

in the mean time heaps out there believe we are the BIGGEST polluters on the planet..so where does that leave anyone???????????????????????..

the fact is the planet is getting warmer we know that..

some like yourself think if we throw money at it it will go away...

we humans have so much power I find it incredible to be honest that we can cure temperature rises.....yet we cant grow another arm or leg......

or cure cancer or aids..or well as the budget will show us they are not important in the scheme of things anyway..

at least phil if Tony has his way we will have lots of trees and we already know that they create oxygen and are food and habitat... what will we have from this BIG NEW TAX.. do you think.??

does anyone know???????? or are we still in the Flannery guess work dept????

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astro_surf

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Re: This person is our finance minister
Reply #54 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 8:14am

gizmo_2655 wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 7:18am:

astro_surf wrote on Apr 11^th, 2011 at 10:24pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Apr 11^th, 2011 at 10:01pm:

Astro, predicting the orbit of a planet (either Uranus OR Earth) is entirely different to predicting what the temperature will be in 30, 50 or 100 years time...

The solar system is a gigantic 'clock'......We know where Uranus will be in 200 years because Uranus orbits the Sun in the same way, and at the same speed ALL the time, so predicting it's position is simply arithmetic....you can work it out by counting on your fingers..

And calculating the radiative forcing of a gas is relatively simple too, Svente Arrenhius did it with an abacus 120 years ago.

Quote:

But since there has never been any 'human caused' warming before this time, there's no historical data to indicate the increase rate, a maximum temperature or a duration....it's ALL guess work...

Actually, there has, there is good evidence now suggesting that domesticating animals led to a marked increase in methane that prevented the planet slipping into another glacial period...

But that aside, whether a climatic change is caused by humans or not is irrelevant, the climate responds to a small number of forcings, change the value of one or more and the climate will change correspondingly.

We have very good data on the role CO2 has played in numerous climate changes, we know for instance that the changes in solar radiation that triggered the last interglacial was nowhere near enough to warm the planet to the degree that we enjoyed throughout the Holocene. The only way to explain the degree that the planet 'recovers' from ice ages in the way that it does is if the maths used to calculate the radiative forcing of CO2 is about right.

Quote:

The scientists THINK the warming will continue at 'X' rate, for 'X' years and reach 'X' temperature by year 'Y'....but there's no hard data to back it up, the only way to prove it is in hindsight...

Yes there is, reams of it, from the historical data referred to above, to the satellite data that confirms there is more energy entering the climate system than is coming out of it, to the experimental data that confirms the rate at which CO2 reemits infra-red etc etc etc

And no climate scientist says that it will be X temperature, they say there is a very high chance that if emissions continue at X rate then average temperatures will increase between a range of Y and Z.

Your missing my point about historical data.....I meant previous completed cycles, not just measurements made within a cycle...

Using the Uranus example, we know where it will be in it's orbit because it's almost 3/4 of the way through it's third orbit, since it's discovery.....

But how many 'complete' ACC cycles have there been in history?? How many times has the climate cycle moved from cold to hot and back to cold through human action????

Behold, the Milankovitch Cycle!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

At least five that have happened over the last 800,000 years. And you're still repeating that red herring about being human induced, it doesn't matter what triggers a rise in CO2, the effects are still the same. I'm pretty sure you guys aresthe only ones missing points when it comes to understanding the earths climate system.

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Andrei.Hicks wrote on Sep 11^th, 2011 at 11:23am:

So tell me, you'd like to see more and more craphouse coloured people in Australia right?&&Yeah good idea moron.&&

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gizmo_2655

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Re: This person is our finance minister
Reply #55 - Apr 12^th, 2011 at 8:26am

astro_surf wrote on Apr 12^th, 2011 at 8:14am: