US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984.

The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on.

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2.

Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 11:10am:

US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984. The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on. The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2. Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year.

Biden is not compos mentis. That is unprecedented and not covered by any of the 13 points.



Thatcher’s husband, Denis, also played a decisive role in coaxing his wife to step down. “ He (Denis) said, ‘You’ve done enough, old girl. You’ve done your share. For God’s sake, don’t go on any longer’.”

Britain’s first female prime ­minister, and its longest serving prime minister of the 20th century, stood down with her dignity and legacy intact.

Are senior and influential Democrats telling Joe Biden that he should make way for someone else for the good of the party and nation? Where are Biden’s candid friends?

Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss.

His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is:

“He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people.

“Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 3:57pm:

Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss. His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is: “He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people. “Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

There is a huge issue with her mental sharpness.

She didn't even make it to the primaries in 2020. She is a liability, like all diversity hires.

Biden's prime-time-aired interview is his first major attempt to prove his competency and see off Democrat pressure to stand down.

The only thing that stands between him and his second term, if Lichtman's near-perfect prediction method holds up, is losing Biden supporters, the never Trumpers and the independents due to questions over his competency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8LoAsHz-Mc

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 11:10am:

US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984. The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on. The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2. Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year.

I find it hard to see biden winning

Frank wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 2:36pm:

Biden is not compos mentis. That is unprecedented and not covered by any of the 13 points.

I'd say Key 12, (charismatic incumbent), would factor in mental competency.

Mental incompetence may evoke sympathy or pity, but it will detract from any charisma the person may have otherwise had.

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 5:36pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6th, 2024 at 11:10am: US historian Allan Lichtman's 13 true/false statements have successfully predicted every presidential election bar one since 1984. The one he got wrong was Al Gore - which, given the circumstances, he gets a pass on. The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House To date, Lichtman has Biden at 7 of the 8 points needed to win, with the possibility of another 2. Lichtman gives his final assessment in August of an election year. I find it hard to see biden winning

Biden's challenge is not to prove that he is not old and is not showing any signs of age - other than that he doesn't have dementia - to keep the never-Trumpers and independents on side.

Only Trump will drain the swamp -
this time he'll get rid of the Deep State -
those en-elected rulers in the 3 letter agencies:
FBI,
DOJ,
CIA,
DHS,
CID,
DOE,
NSA,
NRO,
DOD.

https://wiki.c2.com/?ThreeLetterAgencies

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 3:57pm:

Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss. His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is: “He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people. “Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

He also says that, were Biden to resign, the Dems would lose the all-important key - incumbency.

Most of his other keys are in line, especially the economy. Foreign policy is questionable. Many Dems can't stomach Gaza. I'd say he's lost that key, but do you know?

Biden is no longer running against a charismatic leader - Trump. He's aged and fossilized, as Aquascoot and others here have pointed out.

If Biden drops out, the Dems lose - according to Lichtman's model.

If his model is right, Sleepy Joe needs to hang in there. It's the only thing that will save the American republic from you-know-who.

Lichtman's model leaves out the all-important issue of vibe. There is a palpable sense in the US that Biden is too old and senile to win.

But there was once a vibe for Hillary too. In 2016, everybody was just waiting for her to be sworn in. Lichtman said otherwise, and prevailed.

Trump $1.45 .... Biden $2.90  .... Harris $5.40 ....... that other young Democrat White Horse governor bloke about $2.30 ... Anyone Else Evens....

I only watch American politics for the laughs....

"My fellow Armenians - I do a cognitive test every day .... and what's more... I KNOW about it!"

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 12:21am:

Lichtman's model leaves out the all-important issue of vibe. There is a palpable sense in the US that Biden is too old and senile to win. But there was once a vibe for Hillary too. In 2016, everybody was just waiting for her to be sworn in. Lichtman said otherwise, and prevailed.

Well - Hillary threw herself on the feminist sword by going too hard to try for the women's vote - back-fired - most women aren't ratbag feminists.... she should have learned from Julia Gillard when she was about to be deposed - "I'm going to show everyone my real self!".... and blew it big time - sounded hysterical....

I actually think she was better than that - but being as I'm an anti-feminist and am heartily sick and tired of sheilas, sheilas, sheilas BS all the time.... I won't say that in public....  when ya wanna talk to me about racist, separatist, supremacist and divisive issues that yer tryin' ta get movin' against other people ... ya'd better use terms like Equality and Reality, Pilgrim - an' MEAN 'em when ya use 'em .... that other kinda talk don't go too well in these parts.... an' I got a real problem with one man tellin' another man what he can and can't do in his own country on Open Range ....

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 12:21am:

Lichtman's model leaves out the all-important issue of vibe. There is a palpable sense in the US that Biden is too old and senile to win. But there was once a vibe for Hillary too. In 2016, everybody was just waiting for her to be sworn in. Lichtman said otherwise, and prevailed.

And with Clinton, the vibe was red hot for her.

Seems like the only ones calling a Trump victory were Lichtman and Mike Moore.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 12:17am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6th, 2024 at 3:57pm: Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss. His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is: “He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people. “Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key." He also says that, were Biden to resign, the Dems would lose the all-important key - incumbency.

Lichtman says the opposite.

If Harris became president through Biden's resignation, the Dems would hold the incumbency key.

Whatever the Dems do now will show that they and Big Media have been cynical swindlers for years.

Biden didn't just have a bad night. Biden has been like this for years. Yet they all protected and shielded him and lied about his decline. 

In other dementia care news:
Elderly Surgeon Assures Patients He’s Still Lucid Between 10 A.M. and 4 P.M.

TOPEKA, KS — After several reports emerged of Dr. Don Williams showing signs of cognitive impairment, the surgeon assured his patient population that he is still reliably lucid between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.

"Don't you worry," said Dr. Williams to a patient being prepped for surgery. "I'm still totally coherent about 25% of the time. I'm the man for the job."

Surprisingly, Dr. Williams' reassurances did little to quell the patient's fears. "Um, don't you have to operate before 10 a.m. sometimes?" asked the patient, Landry Smith. "Wait a minute, isn't my surgery scheduled to start at 9 a.m.?!?" cried Smith. However, Dr. Williams just laughed and walked out of the room.

A terrified Smith called for a nurse, demanding to know why Dr. Williams was still allowed to operate. "What on earth are you talking about?" replied the nurse. "Dr. Williams is at the absolute top of his game. I have worked with him every day for the last four years and he is literally the best surgeon on the planet."

"Are you nuts?" responded Smith. "Be quiet for just one second, and listen to him talk!" The nurse did as requested, and the two listened as Dr. Williams explained to a toaster that he was about to remove its gallbladder through its nose. "You honestly think he should be doing my surgery?" asked Smith.

"Of course not. He's obviously got terrible dementia," said the nurse calmly. "Crazy how I never put that together after watching him butcher patient after patient the past four years. He's got to retire immediately!"

Despite the sudden calls from nursing staff for Dr. Williams to retire due to his mental decline, he has thus far steadfastly refused. "Nothing but the Lord Almighty could make me stop operating on people," said Dr. Williams. "I know my mind and my surgical skills aren't so good anymore. Heck, I know I hallucinate in the OR and forget where I am. That's not going to stop me from cutting on people, not after all I did to claw my way to the top of the surgical department. I can still do this. They will have to pry the scalpel out of my cold, dead hands."

At publishing time, the hospital had decided to just let Dr. Williams keep butchering patients as he had brought in a lot of donations to the hospital and it would be a lot of hassle to make him quit.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 10:06am:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 12:17am: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6th, 2024 at 3:57pm: Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss. His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is: “He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people. “Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key." He also says that, were Biden to resign, the Dems would lose the all-important key - incumbency. Lichtman says the opposite. If Harris became president through Biden's resignation, the Dems would hold the incumbency key.

Incumbency describes the prez, Meister, not the party. He said Sleepy shouldn't resign for this reason in an interview.

Frank wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 10:18am:

Whatever the Dems do now will show that they and Big Media have been cynical swindlers for years. Biden didn't just have a bad night. Biden has been like this for years. Yet they all protected and shielded him and lied about his decline.  In other dementia care news: Elderly Surgeon Assures Patients He’s Still Lucid Between 10 A.M. and 4 P.M. TOPEKA, KS — After several reports emerged of Dr. Don Williams showing signs of cognitive impairment, the surgeon assured his patient population that he is still reliably lucid between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. "Don't you worry," said Dr. Williams to a patient being prepped for surgery. "I'm still totally coherent about 25% of the time. I'm the man for the job." Surprisingly, Dr. Williams' reassurances did little to quell the patient's fears. "Um, don't you have to operate before 10 a.m. sometimes?" asked the patient, Landry Smith. "Wait a minute, isn't my surgery scheduled to start at 9 a.m.?!?" cried Smith. However, Dr. Williams just laughed and walked out of the room. A terrified Smith called for a nurse, demanding to know why Dr. Williams was still allowed to operate. "What on earth are you talking about?" replied the nurse. "Dr. Williams is at the absolute top of his game. I have worked with him every day for the last four years and he is literally the best surgeon on the planet." "Are you nuts?" responded Smith. "Be quiet for just one second, and listen to him talk!" The nurse did as requested, and the two listened as Dr. Williams explained to a toaster that he was about to remove its gallbladder through its nose. "You honestly think he should be doing my surgery?" asked Smith. "Of course not. He's obviously got terrible dementia," said the nurse calmly. "Crazy how I never put that together after watching him butcher patient after patient the past four years. He's got to retire immediately!" Despite the sudden calls from nursing staff for Dr. Williams to retire due to his mental decline, he has thus far steadfastly refused. "Nothing but the Lord Almighty could make me stop operating on people," said Dr. Williams. "I know my mind and my surgical skills aren't so good anymore. Heck, I know I hallucinate in the OR and forget where I am. That's not going to stop me from cutting on people, not after all I did to claw my way to the top of the surgical department. I can still do this. They will have to pry the scalpel out of my cold, dead hands." At publishing time, the hospital had decided to just let Dr. Williams keep butchering patients as he had brought in a lot of donations to the hospital and it would be a lot of hassle to make him quit.

That sums Biden up very well.
He has the life of all of us in his hands.
Putin has his finger on the red button.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 2:23pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 10:06am: Big Donger wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 12:17am: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6th, 2024 at 3:57pm: Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss. His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is: “He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people. “Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key." He also says that, were Biden to resign, the Dems would lose the all-important key - incumbency. Lichtman says the opposite. If Harris became president through Biden's resignation, the Dems would hold the incumbency key. Incumbency describes the prez, Meister, not the party. He said Sleepy shouldn't resign for this reason in an interview.

Harris would be the incumbent Democrat president.

Sure, Lictman believes Biden should hold his ground.

His "Plan B" if Biden relents to pressure not to run:

“He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people.

“Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

Bobby. wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 2:27pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 10:18am: Whatever the Dems do now will show "Are you nuts?" responded Smith. "Be quiet for just one second, and listen to him talk!" The nurse did as requested, and the two listened as Dr. Williams explained to a toaster that he was about to remove its gallbladder through its nose. "You honestly think he should be doing my surgery?" asked Smith. "Of course not. He's obviously got terrible dementia," said the nurse calmly. "Crazy how I never put that together after watching him butcher patient after patient the past four years. He's got to retire immediately!" Despite the sudden calls from nursing staff for Dr. Williams to retire due to his mental decline, he has thus far steadfastly refused. "Nothing but the Lord Almighty could make me stop operating on people," said Dr. Williams. "I know my mind and my surgical skills aren't so good anymore. Heck, I know I hallucinate in the OR and forget where I am. That's not going to stop me from cutting on people, not after all I did to claw my way to the top of the surgical department. I can still do this. They will have to pry the scalpel out of my cold, dead hands." At publishing time, the hospital had decided to just let Dr. Williams keep butchering patients as he had brought in a lot of donations to the hospital and it would be a lot of hassle to make him quit. That sums Biden up very well. He has the life of all of us in his hands. Putin has his finger on the red button.

Are you suggesting DL, who fawns and preens over Putin, is up to the task?

DL, who got up before the world and said all the US intelligence agencies were wrong and that Vladimir Putin was telling the truth?

DL, who refuses to call the invasion of Ukraine a war crime and who's initial response was to call it "very smart" and the act of a peacemaker?

DL, who deliberately withheld Congressional military aid to Ukraine to defend its citizens?

DL, who berated Congress to overturn the sanctions on Russia after its 2016 election interference and who, even before he became prez, had his senior campaign team meet with a Russian agent to discuss overturning the Magnitsky Act, the economic sanctions on Vlad's friends the oligarchs?

I'm sorry, Bobby, your proposal has no facts. All you can do is hurl out glib, hyperbolic slogans and dumb, photoshopped memes. You think these hide the fact that you have no truth to justify your case.

On the contrary, dear, they magnify it. Every time you post one of your hysterical one-liners, we know.

That guy's been farmed, they say. He's a complete whack job. He's had a full lobotomy, look at him.

Now now, we say, that's just Bobby the bat. He's one of us.

He's a total nutter, they say. He's telling you Trump's gonna save America from Putin, what a dickhead. Read his posts for Christ's sake, guys like this are a threat to everybody.

I know, we say, but it takes all types. That's our rich multicultural tapestry, no? Different strokes for different folks, all that.

He's trying to get a dictator into power by telling you he'll do the exact opposite of what he's already said he'd do, it's insane. This is how guys like Putin come to power in the first place - because of brainwashed dupes like this.

Yes, but we must be open and flexible in our views. I do feel...

Oh, fuck off. Being open and flexible with cunts like that gets you nowhere. They tell you a dozen lies in one rant, then chase you around for a spelling mistake. The lies, the projection, the whataboutism, the moral equivalency, it's ludicrous.

True, but...

No buts. If Bobby comes at you with the usual krap, call it what it is. Don't minimize it or excuse him. He's had a decent education for fuck's sake, he's been nurtured and cultivated and well taken care of - the best money can by. Even now he gets a pension. Bobby's the product of an affluent liberal democracy, and look at him. He's trying to cash it all in for Putin's Russia.

No no, I think he likes Trump.

Exactly. Putin's Russia.

So what should I say?

Ask him if he's ever been cheated. What's he gonna say - no? No chance of that. Not only has Bobby been farmed, he's been fingered, fucked and fisted, he knows that. Put that to him.

Oh, okay. Bobby? Ever get the feeling you've been, er...

Fisted.

Fisted?

Good, then give him the options.

Right. Oh, and Bobby, a simple yes or no will suffice.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 3:20pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 2:23pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 10:06am: Big Donger wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 12:17am: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6th, 2024 at 3:57pm: Lichtman's 2024 assessment for Biden so far is not to just withdraw his candidacy as, given there is no concensus on a replacement, the instability it would cause within the Democratic party would guarantee a loss. His 'Plan B' as he calls it, if Biden cannot see off Democratic pressure for him not to run is: “He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people. “Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key." He also says that, were Biden to resign, the Dems would lose the all-important key - incumbency. Lichtman says the opposite. If Harris became president through Biden's resignation, the Dems would hold the incumbency key. Incumbency describes the prez, Meister, not the party. He said Sleepy shouldn't resign for this reason in an interview. Harris would be the incumbent Democrat president. Sure, Lictman believes Biden should hold his ground. His "Plan B" if Biden relents to pressure not to run: “He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people. “Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key."

She's not the incumbent. No one's going to value the incumbency of a two-month president.

There's some precedent in the case of Nixon, who resigned to avoid impeachment. This put Gerald Ford in power, but when his election happened, he'd served as prez for two years.

He could have won, but there was a definite "it's-time" factor, something the Lichtman model doesn't take into account. Also, Ford pardoned Nixon. Many voters turfed him for that alone.

I doubt many voted for Carter, they merely turfed the guy who was so close to Nixon, Watergate and the oil shocks that were prevailing at the time

Those shocks lost Ford the economy key, and on and on. But his incumbency was definitely a benefit, in as much as his proximity to Nixon was not.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 3:22pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 2:27pm: Frank wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 10:18am: Whatever the Dems do now will show "Are you nuts?" responded Smith. "Be quiet for just one second, and listen to him talk!" The nurse did as requested, and the two listened as Dr. Williams explained to a toaster that he was about to remove its gallbladder through its nose. "You honestly think he should be doing my surgery?" asked Smith. "Of course not. He's obviously got terrible dementia," said the nurse calmly. "Crazy how I never put that together after watching him butcher patient after patient the past four years. He's got to retire immediately!" Despite the sudden calls from nursing staff for Dr. Williams to retire due to his mental decline, he has thus far steadfastly refused. "Nothing but the Lord Almighty could make me stop operating on people," said Dr. Williams. "I know my mind and my surgical skills aren't so good anymore. Heck, I know I hallucinate in the OR and forget where I am. That's not going to stop me from cutting on people, not after all I did to claw my way to the top of the surgical department. I can still do this. They will have to pry the scalpel out of my cold, dead hands." At publishing time, the hospital had decided to just let Dr. Williams keep butchering patients as he had brought in a lot of donations to the hospital and it would be a lot of hassle to make him quit. That sums Biden up very well. He has the life of all of us in his hands. Putin has his finger on the red button. Are you suggesting DL, who fawns and preens over Putin, is up to the task? DL, who got up before the world and said all the US intelligence agencies were wrong and that Vladimir Putin was telling the truth? DL, who refuses to call the invasion of Ukraine a war crime and who's initial response was to call it "very smart" and the act of a peacemaker? DL, who deliberately withheld Congressional military aid to Ukraine to defend its citizens? DL, who berated Congress to overturn the sanctions on Russia after its 2016 election interference and who, even before he became prez, had his senior campaign team meet with a Russian agent to discuss overturning the Magnitsky Act, the economic sanctions on Vlad's friends the oligarchs? I'm sorry, Bobby, your proposal has no facts. All you can do is hurl out glib, hyperbolic slogans and dumb, photoshopped memes. You think these hide the fact that you have no truth to justify your case. On the contrary, dear, they magnify it. Every time you post one of your hysterical one-liners, we know. That guy's been farmed, they say. He's a complete whack job. He's had a full lobotomy, look at him. Now now, we say, that's just Bobby the bat. He's one of us. He's a total nutter, they say. He's telling you Trump's gonna save America from Putin, what a dickhead. Read his posts for Christ's sake, guys like this are a threat to everybody. I know, we say, but it takes all types. That's our rich multicultural tapestry, no? Different strokes for different folks, all that. He's trying to get a dictator into power by telling you he'll do the exact opposite of what he's already said he'd do, it's insane. This is how guys like Putin come to power in the first place - because of brainwashed dupes like this. Yes, but we must be open and flexible in our views. I do feel... Oh, fuck off. Being open and flexible with cunts like that gets you nowhere. They tell you a dozen lies in one rant, then chase you around for a spelling mistake. The lies, the projection, the whataboutism, the moral equivalency, it's ludicrous. True, but... No buts. If Bobby comes at you with the usual krap, call it what it is. Don't minimize it or excuse him. He's had a decent education for fuck's sake, he's been nurtured and cultivated and well taken care of - the best money can by. Even now he gets a pension. Bobby's the product of an affluent liberal democracy, and look at him. He's trying to cash it all in for Putin's Russia. No no, I think he likes Trump. Exactly. Putin's Russia. So what should I say? Ask him if he's ever been cheated. What's he gonna say - no? No chance of that. Not only has Bobby been farmed, he's been fingered, fucked and fisted, he knows that. Put that to him. Oh, okay. Bobby? Ever get the feeling you've been, er... Fisted. Fisted? Good, then give him the options. Right. Oh, and Bobby, a simple yes or no will suffice.

I'm sorry, Bobby paki, your proposal has no facts. All you can do is hurl out glib, hyperbolic slogans and dumb, photoshopped memes. You think these hide the fact that you have no truth to justify your case, just grimacing idiocies.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 3:50pm:

Those shocks lost Ford the economy key, and on and on. But his incumbency was definitely a benefit, in as much as his proximity to Nixon was not.

No doubt Ford could not shake off the ghost of Nixon and remained unforgiven for pardoning him.

Nor could he wear down the stigma of being 'only' an unelected 'caretaker president'.

He probably lost the charismatic key-12 as well - something Harris would likely not hold as well.

But, in his apology to the American people for Nixon's pardoning, Ford told them that the country needed to move on from Watergate and heal - on that the American people took his advice and moved on from the last remaining vestige of Nixon - his 'father confessor'.

Harris would not have to apologise for Biden.

Frank wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 4:21pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 3:22pm: Bobby. wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 2:27pm: Frank wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 10:18am: Whatever the Dems do now will show "Are you nuts?" responded Smith. "Be quiet for just one second, and listen to him talk!" The nurse did as requested, and the two listened as Dr. Williams explained to a toaster that he was about to remove its gallbladder through its nose. "You honestly think he should be doing my surgery?" asked Smith. "Of course not. He's obviously got terrible dementia," said the nurse calmly. "Crazy how I never put that together after watching him butcher patient after patient the past four years. He's got to retire immediately!" Despite the sudden calls from nursing staff for Dr. Williams to retire due to his mental decline, he has thus far steadfastly refused. "Nothing but the Lord Almighty could make me stop operating on people," said Dr. Williams. "I know my mind and my surgical skills aren't so good anymore. Heck, I know I hallucinate in the OR and forget where I am. That's not going to stop me from cutting on people, not after all I did to claw my way to the top of the surgical department. I can still do this. They will have to pry the scalpel out of my cold, dead hands." At publishing time, the hospital had decided to just let Dr. Williams keep butchering patients as he had brought in a lot of donations to the hospital and it would be a lot of hassle to make him quit. That sums Biden up very well. He has the life of all of us in his hands. Putin has his finger on the red button. Are you suggesting DL, who fawns and preens over Putin, is up to the task? DL, who got up before the world and said all the US intelligence agencies were wrong and that Vladimir Putin was telling the truth? DL, who refuses to call the invasion of Ukraine a war crime and who's initial response was to call it "very smart" and the act of a peacemaker? DL, who deliberately withheld Congressional military aid to Ukraine to defend its citizens? DL, who berated Congress to overturn the sanctions on Russia after its 2016 election interference and who, even before he became prez, had his senior campaign team meet with a Russian agent to discuss overturning the Magnitsky Act, the economic sanctions on Vlad's friends the oligarchs? I'm sorry, Bobby, your proposal has no facts. All you can do is hurl out glib, hyperbolic slogans and dumb, photoshopped memes. You think these hide the fact that you have no truth to justify your case. On the contrary, dear, they magnify it. Every time you post one of your hysterical one-liners, we know. That guy's been farmed, they say. He's a complete whack job. He's had a full lobotomy, look at him. Now now, we say, that's just Bobby the bat. He's one of us. He's a total nutter, they say. He's telling you Trump's gonna save America from Putin, what a dickhead. Read his posts for Christ's sake, guys like this are a threat to everybody. I know, we say, but it takes all types. That's our rich multicultural tapestry, no? Different strokes for different folks, all that. He's trying to get a dictator into power by telling you he'll do the exact opposite of what he's already said he'd do, it's insane. This is how guys like Putin come to power in the first place - because of brainwashed dupes like this. Yes, but we must be open and flexible in our views. I do feel... Oh, fuck off. Being open and flexible with cunts like that gets you nowhere. They tell you a dozen lies in one rant, then chase you around for a spelling mistake. The lies, the projection, the whataboutism, the moral equivalency, it's ludicrous. True, but... No buts. If Bobby comes at you with the usual krap, call it what it is. Don't minimize it or excuse him. He's had a decent education for fuck's sake, he's been nurtured and cultivated and well taken care of - the best money can by. Even now he gets a pension. Bobby's the product of an affluent liberal democracy, and look at him. He's trying to cash it all in for Putin's Russia. No no, I think he likes Trump. Exactly. Putin's Russia. So what should I say? Ask him if he's ever been cheated. What's he gonna say - no? No chance of that. Not only has Bobby been farmed, he's been fingered, fucked and fisted, he knows that. Put that to him. Oh, okay. Bobby? Ever get the feeling you've been, er... Fisted. Fisted? Good, then give him the options. Right. Oh, and Bobby, a simple yes or no will suffice. I'm sorry, Bobby paki, your proposal has no facts. All you can do is hurl out glib, hyperbolic slogans and dumb, photoshopped memes. You think these hide the fact that you have no truth to justify your case, just grimacing idiocies.

You see? These cunts are so dumb, they think you'll buy their own tactics projected onto you. 

Yes, I think I'm starting to realize.

Good. So give it to the old boy.

Okay. Old boy, have you ever had the feeling that you might have been a little fist...

Fisted? Not him. He's so tight it'd take a jackhammer to get it in.

Sorry, I'm confused.

Good, now you're curious. Use it. What killed the old boy off? Probably fell out of a window drunk, but who knows? Put it to him.

Ever get the feeling you've been defenestrated?

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 4:30pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 3:50pm: Those shocks lost Ford the economy key, and on and on. But his incumbency was definitely a benefit, in as much as his proximity to Nixon was not. No doubt Ford could not shake off the ghost of Nixon and remained unforgiven for pardoning him. Nor could he wear down the stigma of being 'only' an unelected 'caretaker president'. He probably lost the charismatic key-12 as well - something Harris would likely not hold as well. But, in his apology to the American people for Nixon's pardoning, Ford told them that the country needed to move on from Watergate and heal - on that the American people took his advice and moved on from the last remaining vestige of Nixon - his 'father confessor'. Harris would not have to apologise for Biden.

Harris is polling worse than Biden. Put her in if Biden is impeached or dies, not by choice.

Biden has left this too late. He should have transition planned much better but he didn't, so they're stuck with him. Only Biden can make this choice, but Harris would be a disaster in an election.

He's right. They'll have forgotten this debate in a month. But the question of his age is not going away.

Of the five unelected presidents - vice presidents who became intra-term presidents and successfully stood for election as president in their own right - only one lost: Gerald Ford.

The four winners were Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman and Lyndon B Johnson.

Harris would have that going for her as an intra-term incumbent president.

However, the four winners ascended to the presidency due to the natural death/assassination of their president.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 4:54pm:

Harris is polling worse than Biden. Put her in if Biden is impeached or dies, not by choice.

Truman was an unpopular nobody in 1945 but went on to win in his own right despite all those predictions that he would lose huge.

He mocked those predictions:

https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/1948-election.jpg

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 5:01pm:

Of the five unelected presidents - vice presidents who became intra-term presidents and successfully stood for election as president in their own right - only one lost: Gerald Ford. The four winners were Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman and Lyndon B Johnson. Harris would have that going for her as an intra-term incumbent president. However, the four winners ascended to the presidency due to the natural death/assassination of their president.

Ah. Unfortunately for Karmala, that option is not open to her yet.

Bobby. wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 2:27pm:

Putin has his finger on the red button.

Trump has his finger on Putin's prostate.

https://images.nightcafe.studio/jobs/wIAn2gOcYOsuLTihM4xq/wIAn2gOcYOsuLTihM4xq--1--hwlqj.jpg

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 5:01pm:

Of the five unelected presidents - vice presidents who became intra-term presidents and successfully stood for election as president in their own right - only one lost: Gerald Ford. The four winners were Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman and Lyndon B Johnson. Harris would have that going for her as an intra-term incumbent president. However, the four winners ascended to the presidency due to the natural death/assassination of their president.

Harris is unelectable. Even Democrats gave her only 1 percent in the primaries. She is a ridiculous diversity hire nobody. A cackling fool

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 6:18pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 2:27pm: Putin has his finger on the red button. Trump has his finger on Putin's prostate. https://images.nightcafe.studio/jobs/wIAn2gOcYOsuLTihM4xq/wIAn2gOcYOsuLTihM4xq--1--hwlqj.jpg

Miam Miam, no?

Frank wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 6:21pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 5:01pm: Of the five unelected presidents - vice presidents who became intra-term presidents and successfully stood for election as president in their own right - only one lost: Gerald Ford. The four winners were Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman and Lyndon B Johnson. Harris would have that going for her as an intra-term incumbent president. However, the four winners ascended to the presidency due to the natural death/assassination of their president. Harris is unelectable. Even Democrats gave her only 1 percent in the primaries. She is a ridiculous diversity hire nobody. A cackling fool

You know nothing about Karmala, dear. Your opinions are right off the shelf, all that sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Still, if it keeps the lid on, all good, eh?

We'd hate to have you walking around in that state.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 8:33pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 6:18pm: Bobby. wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 2:27pm: Putin has his finger on the red button. Trump has his finger on Putin's prostate. https://images.nightcafe.studio/jobs/wIAn2gOcYOsuLTihM4xq/wIAn2gOcYOsuLTihM4xq--1--hwlqj.jpg Miam Miam, no?

That is your level, grimacing paki turds.  That is the outer limit of your intellect, your emotions, your understanding and place in the world AS YOU SEE IT.

Hideous f***wittery.  Inexhaustible, relentless grimacing f***wittery.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 8:36pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 6:21pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 5:01pm: Of the five unelected presidents - vice presidents who became intra-term presidents and successfully stood for election as president in their own right - only one lost: Gerald Ford. The four winners were Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman and Lyndon B Johnson. Harris would have that going for her as an intra-term incumbent president. However, the four winners ascended to the presidency due to the natural death/assassination of their president. Harris is unelectable. Even Democrats gave her only 1 percent in the primaries. She is a ridiculous diversity hire nobody. A cackling fool You know nothing about Karmala, dear. Your opinions are right off the shelf, all that sound and fury, signifying nothing. Still, if it keeps the lid on, all good, eh? We'd hate to have you walking around in that state.

;D ;D ;D

Oh?! She has some HIDDEN qualities, does she, grimacing paki tapdancer, qualities you can see??

The media's current Biden-out orgy could well be a catharsis tactic in his defence - burn out the anxiety energy as fast as possible, betting that the general public's interest in the debate debacle will blow over even faster than it otherwise would if the media floods the news cycle with it.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 8:46pm:

The media's current Biden-out orgy could well be a catharsis tactic in his defence - burn out the anxiety energy as fast as possible, betting that the general public's interest in the debate debacle will blow over even faster than it otherwise would if the media floods the news cycle with it.

Yeah - but he IS gaga. Burn that out.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img641/9394/yawnr.gif

Frank wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 8:43pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 8:36pm: Frank wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 6:21pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 7th, 2024 at 5:01pm: Of the five unelected presidents - vice presidents who became intra-term presidents and successfully stood for election as president in their own right - only one lost: Gerald Ford. The four winners were Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman and Lyndon B Johnson. Harris would have that going for her as an intra-term incumbent president. However, the four winners ascended to the presidency due to the natural death/assassination of their president. Harris is unelectable. Even Democrats gave her only 1 percent in the primaries. She is a ridiculous diversity hire nobody. A cackling fool You know nothing about Karmala, dear. Your opinions are right off the shelf, all that sound and fury, signifying nothing. Still, if it keeps the lid on, all good, eh? We'd hate to have you walking around in that state. ;D ;D ;D Oh?! She has some HIDDEN qualities, does she, grimacing paki tapdancer, qualities you can see??

Old boy, the VP has a ceremonial role with daily duties you know absolutely nothing about. Far beyond your edited Sky News videos, Karmala, Mike and Sleepy Joe before them, do things you have absolutely no understanding of.

So leave the coffin lid on. We'd rather you stayed, how to put this, deeply interred.

But if you feel the need to get about like a zombie, posting the views of Bronwyn Bishop, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones, be our guest.

Keep busy living, old boy, or keep busy dying. Do Rest In Peace.

Sleepy Joe's memory loss and slurred speech won't improve the further he goes on, only get worse if anything

Bias_2012 wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 11:28pm:

Sleepy Joe's memory loss and slurred speech won't improve the further he goes on, only get worse if anything

Diaper Don's raping and criminal convictions won't improve the further he goes on, only get worse if anything.

the dems appear goners

harris actually polls worse then biden,

michelle obama is the only one who could beat trump and she aint running

the democratic party and the main stream media have taken the word "incompetance' to a whole new level.

as we say in self help

"what you resist, persists"

trump would have wilted on the vine if they hust had the discipline to ignore him

they didnt

now they pay the price

worth studying

The Law of Attraction and how it works!
According to Law of Attraction, so many us subconsciously sabotage our own goodness by focusing on the things we don’t want or like about our life experiences. But if you have a sound understanding of the law, then you know that it does not discriminate against the things that you focus on.

This means that even when you are focused on something that you do not wish to happen, you can subconsciously be drawing it into your experience. Yes, YOU could be attracting the very things that you resist. And what you resist, persist.

When you push against something that you do not like, that very action isn’t what’s going to make it go away. In fact, Law of Attractions says that doing this will only amplify more of what you don’t want.

If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks

The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined.

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 5:20am:

The Law of Attraction and how it works! According to Law of Attraction, so many us subconsciously sabotage our own goodness by focusing on the things we don’t want or like about our life experiences. But if you have a sound understanding of the law, then you know that it does not discriminate against the things that you focus on. This means that even when you are focused on something that you do not wish to happen, you can subconsciously be drawing it into your experience. Yes, YOU could be attracting the very things that you resist. And what you resist, persist. When you push against something that you do not like, that very action isn’t what’s going to make it go away. In fact, Law of Attractions says that doing this will only amplify more of what you don’t want. If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined.

Did you plagiarize that load of horseshit from Oprah Winfrey's reading list?

There with "The Secret" was it?

What an almost incomprehesible broad sweep, paying absolutely no mind to the actual realities of every day lives.

And, as with all of Horse Boys guru worshiping self help garbage, it preaches to people with very little ground to move and who live the the utter luxury of not even needing to travel that far.

Trite and meaningless at least toxic, highly damaging, simplistic, reductive and dehumanising at worst.

Pop-psychological elitism.

Like all religions, pop psychologies are subject to the arc of opposites - they're all both sublime and ridiculous at the same time.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 8:23am:

Like all religions, pop psychologies are subject to the arc of opposites - they're all both sublime and ridiculous at the same time.

That sounds like pop psychology mascarading as insight.

The 'arc of opposites' (aka dialectics) inheres in everything.

Frank wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 8:38am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 8:23am: Like all religions, pop psychologies are subject to the arc of opposites - they're all both sublime and ridiculous at the same time. That sounds like pop psychology mascarading as insight. The 'arc of opposites' (aka dialectics) inheres in everything.

Does the Law of Attraction work for you?

mothra wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 7:52am:

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: The Law of Attraction and how it works! According to Law of Attraction, so many us subconsciously sabotage our own goodness by focusing on the things we don’t want or like about our life experiences. But if you have a sound understanding of the law, then you know that it does not discriminate against the things that you focus on. This means that even when you are focused on something that you do not wish to happen, you can subconsciously be drawing it into your experience. Yes, YOU could be attracting the very things that you resist. And what you resist, persist. When you push against something that you do not like, that very action isn’t what’s going to make it go away. In fact, Law of Attractions says that doing this will only amplify more of what you don’t want. If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Did you plagiarize that load of horseshit from Oprah Winfrey's reading list? There with "The Secret" was it? What an almost incomprehesible broad sweep, paying absolutely no mind to the actual realities of every day lives. And, as with all of Horse Boys guru worshiping self help garbage, it preaches to people with very little ground to move and who live the the utter luxury of not even needing to travel that far. Trite and meaningless at least toxic, highly damaging, simplistic, reductive and dehumanising at worst. Pop-psychological elitism.

Not at all. Phenomenology and Gestalt psychology.

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 5:20am:

If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined.

Depending on what you're capable of, I guess.

If the Law of Attraction only works if you believe in it, or, more to the point, only if you already have the wherewithal to attain what you want,  then it's not a law in the way gravity is a law.

Lichtman speaks about his keys to the Whitehouse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXXu50lbdC8

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 11:33am:

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Depending on what you're capable of, I guess. If the Law of Attraction only works if you believe in it, or, more to the point, only if you already have the wherewithal to attain what you want,  then it's not a law in the way gravity is a law.

i agree these arent laws

but lets look at it this way

most people who are struggling in life see every situation as a win /lose

they think that we tax the rich and make them poorer and give that to the poor.
a winner and a loser
or we take from white and give to blacks
a winner and a loser

steven coveys "contruct the win/win" is not comprehendable to them.

now lets look at how the world really operates

when you are doing really well, you dont 'want' anything
so you are a bit carefree

thats very attractive to people

being care free and joking around makes you seem a natural winner

we are drawn to such people

who jokes around more , trump or biden?
probably trump
he's fairly loose and likes to clown

do the left seem lose and like to clown around?

no, they seem deadly serious
mothra is deadly serious

she sees oprah winfreys high vibration style as  (and i quote)

Trite and meaningless at least toxic, highly damaging, simplistic, reductive and dehumanising at worst.

thats taking yourself way too seriously.

and people are repulsed by that

the truth is oprah is in high vibration energy and people are drawn to it
is it crap?
quite possibly.

but are people more likely to have a positive happy life if they listen to oprah or should they listen to humourless, serious, angry lefties like mothra?

thats the paradox.

the people who most need to tap into the abundance of the universe and the flow state of source energy are told by serious dour lefties that being a victim is the path forward

its not and its time they were called out for it

oprah herself was raped at 14 by a family member and in a mental institution by 16.
broken

and it was a sartori experience of spirituality that let her change that paradigm.

in my opinion if oprah ran for president, she would win

not because the law of attraction and law of abundance are true, but because real social dynamics favour their assumption as true in the real world

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:35pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 11:33am: aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Depending on what you're capable of, I guess. If the Law of Attraction only works if you believe in it, or, more to the point, only if you already have the wherewithal to attain what you want,  then it's not a law in the way gravity is a law. i agree these arent laws

You could look at it like this.

To attain what you want requires specific opportunities - paths, if you like, that lead to the desired outcome.

Take the attitude that 'Opportunity = preparation + readiness'.

Define:

Opportunity as recognition of a doable path to attain what you want.

Prepartation as the work/achievements that need to be completed to be capable of taking the path.

Readiness as the psychological state to be capable of seeing the path forward.

Believe that only when you are prepared and ready to recognise and take an opportunity, you will likely attain what you want.

It's not a law, it's a strategy.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:47pm:

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 12:35pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 11:33am: aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Depending on what you're capable of, I guess. If the Law of Attraction only works if you believe in it, or, more to the point, only if you already have the wherewithal to attain what you want,  then it's not a law in the way gravity is a law. i agree these arent laws You could look at it like this. To attain what you want requires specific opportunities - paths, if you like, that lead to the desired outcome. Take the attitude that 'Opportunity = preparation + readiness'. Define: Opportunity as recognition of a doable path to attain what you want. Prepartation as the work/achievements that need to be completed to be capable of taking the path. Readiness as the psychological state to be capable of seeing the path forward. Believe that only when you are prepared and ready to recognise and take an opportunity, you will likely attain what you want. It's not a law, it's a strategy.

now you sound like steven covey ;)

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 1:36pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 12:47pm: aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 12:35pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 11:33am: aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Depending on what you're capable of, I guess. If the Law of Attraction only works if you believe in it, or, more to the point, only if you already have the wherewithal to attain what you want,  then it's not a law in the way gravity is a law. i agree these arent laws You could look at it like this. To attain what you want requires specific opportunities - paths, if you like, that lead to the desired outcome. Take the attitude that 'Opportunity = preparation + readiness'. Define: Opportunity as recognition of a doable path to attain what you want. Prepartation as the work/achievements that need to be completed to be capable of taking the path. Readiness as the psychological state to be capable of seeing the path forward. Believe that only when you are prepared and ready to recognise and take an opportunity, you will likely attain what you want. It's not a law, it's a strategy. now you sound like steven covey ;)

Yep, well...nihil novi sub sole!

Doubt is ubiquitous. The best we can do is develop strategies that we believe can minimise the chances of incurring poor outcomes, maximise our chances of achieving good ones, all the while accepting that we can't eliminate uncertainty and doubt.

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:35pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 11:33am: aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Depending on what you're capable of, I guess. If the Law of Attraction only works if you believe in it, or, more to the point, only if you already have the wherewithal to attain what you want,  then it's not a law in the way gravity is a law. i agree these arent laws but lets look at it this way most people who are struggling in life see every situation as a win /lose they think that we tax the rich and make them poorer and give that to the poor. a winner and a loser or we take from white and give to blacks a winner and a loser steven coveys "contruct the win/win" is not comprehendable to them. now lets look at how the world really operates when you are doing really well, you dont 'want' anything so you are a bit carefree thats very attractive to people being care free and joking around makes you seem a natural winner we are drawn to such people who jokes around more , trump or biden? probably trump he's fairly loose and likes to clown do the left seem lose and like to clown around? no, they seem deadly serious mothra is deadly serious she sees oprah winfreys high vibration style as  (and i quote) Trite and meaningless at least toxic, highly damaging, simplistic, reductive and dehumanising at worst. thats taking yourself way too seriously. and people are repulsed by that the truth is oprah is in high vibration energy and people are drawn to it is it crap? quite possibly. but are people more likely to have a positive happy life if they listen to oprah or should they listen to humourless, serious, angry lefties like mothra? thats the paradox. the people who most need to tap into the abundance of the universe and the flow state of source energy are told by serious dour lefties that being a victim is the path forward its not and its time they were called out for it oprah herself was raped at 14 by a family member and in a mental institution by 16. broken and it was a sartori experience of spirituality that let her change that paradigm. in my opinion if oprah ran for president, she would win not because the law of attraction and law of abundance are true, but because real social dynamics favour their assumption as true in the real world

Rule of law, innit.

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:35pm:

oprah herself was raped at 14 by a family member ...

She's not on the Trump family tree, is she?

When Oprah was six, her grandmother became ill, and Oprah was sent to live at her mother's home in Milwaukee, where she was made to sleep on the porch by the boarding house owner. Her years with her mother also exposed her to even more horrifying trauma. As she has recalled, at just nine years old, Oprah was raped by her 19-year-old cousin. As time went on, a family friend and an uncle would also abuse the vulnerable young girl

and so it went on

pregnant at 14

the baby died

severe post natal depression


sent to live with her father




and her father said this


her father, a former military member, knew that his daughter now had more options than she would have had if she had been a teen mom. "When that child died, my father said to me, 'This is your second chance. This is your opportunity to seize this moment and make something of your life,'"

Read More: https://www.thelist.com/346339/the-tragic-story-of-oprahs-childhood/

if she had gone to a leftie social worker. she would have been treated with pity and been kept in the hell of victim identification

thank god, a strong masculine role model was able to guide her on the "narrow road to success" ;)

Both Biden and Trump now have a huge interest in promoting the view that Vice-President Kamala Harris would be a disastrous candidate. That there is so little faith in Harris being able to beat Trump is one of the strongest arguments for those who back Biden staying in the race. But it’s also a very strong argument for Trump. Because Biden, 81 now and 82 by inauguration day, and obviously declining mentally, has virtually zero chance of making it through another four-year presidential term.

Not only that, Biden chose Harris as Vice-President partly because of her political mediocrity and lack of star power. It’s true she ticked all kinds of identity politics boxes, but Biden ruthlessly calculated that no one would ever want to ditch him for her. Which is why the Democrats are in such a mess now.

Sheridan



Bidet/Trump unity ticket on Mrs 'arris.  :D

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 5:10pm:

When Oprah was six, her grandmother became ill, and Oprah was sent to live at her mother's home in Milwaukee, where she was made to sleep on the porch by the boarding house owner. Her years with her mother also exposed her to even more horrifying trauma. As she has recalled, at just nine years old, Oprah was raped by her 19-year-old cousin. As time went on, a family friend and an uncle would also abuse the vulnerable young girl and so it went on pregnant at 14 the baby died severe post natal depression sent to live with her father and her father said this her father, a former military member, knew that his daughter now had more options than she would have had if she had been a teen mom. "When that child died, my father said to me, 'This is your second chance. This is your opportunity to seize this moment and make something of your life,'" Read More: https://www.thelist.com/346339/the-tragic-story-of-oprahs-childhood/ if she had gone to a leftie social worker. she would have been treated with pity and been kept in the hell of victim identification thank god, a strong masculine role model was able to guide her on the "narrow road to success" ;)

Excuse I, are you saying Oprah didn't have a social worker?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 12:58pm:

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:10pm: When Oprah was six, her grandmother became ill, and Oprah was sent to live at her mother's home in Milwaukee, where she was made to sleep on the porch by the boarding house owner. Her years with her mother also exposed her to even more horrifying trauma. As she has recalled, at just nine years old, Oprah was raped by her 19-year-old cousin. As time went on, a family friend and an uncle would also abuse the vulnerable young girl and so it went on pregnant at 14 the baby died severe post natal depression sent to live with her father and her father said this her father, a former military member, knew that his daughter now had more options than she would have had if she had been a teen mom. "When that child died, my father said to me, 'This is your second chance. This is your opportunity to seize this moment and make something of your life,'" Read More: https://www.thelist.com/346339/the-tragic-story-of-oprahs-childhood/ if she had gone to a leftie social worker. she would have been treated with pity and been kept in the hell of victim identification thank god, a strong masculine role model was able to guide her on the "narrow road to success" ;) Excuse I, are you saying Oprah didn't have a social worker? A simple yes or no will suffice.

social workers have mortgages , just like everyone else.

i farm cattle to pay my mortgage

social workers farm people who arent doing well to pay their mortgage

they dont want everyone thriving or they starve

in general, people do what makes them cash and then back rationalise it

you think big pharma wants everyone healthy so they cant sell  any more drugs?
you think solicitors want healthy marriages so they cant feast off the divorce
you think NDIS service providors want everyone doing well so they have to shut down
you think a public servant on 200 k working on the homelessness issue wants everyone housed so they can go to the job network
you think raytheon want world peace so they cant sell rockets

you are very naive fisk

I see. So did Oprah have a social worker on her case or not?

If you don't want to answer, just say ee.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 2:53pm:

I see. So did Oprah have a social worker on her case or not? If you don't want to answer, just say ee.

are you arguing that oprah's success is due to some civil servant who sent ther to live with her ex-military dad ;D ;D.

if social workers want to get a medal for the success stories(rare) are they willing to cop the flak for what goes on in south central LA, chicago and alice springs  ::) ::)

aquascoot wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 4:30pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 9th, 2024 at 2:53pm: I see. So did Oprah have a social worker on her case or not? If you don't want to answer, just say ee. are you arguing that oprah's success is due to some civil servant who sent ther to live with her ex-military dad ;D ;D. if social workers want to get a medal for the success stories(rare) are they willing to cop the flak for what goes on in south central LA, chicago and alice springs  ::) ::)

No, I'm just asking if she had a social worker. You seemed pretty sure before.

Are you now saying, yes, she may have had one, but that has nothing to do with your claim that she most certainly did not?

Or are you saying no, she most certainly did not have one, she learned feminist self-empowerment all on her own?

Select your final answer please.

You can add Culture Wars and Bronwyn Bishop's analysis once you've established that, okay?

White House Whistleblower Believes Joe Biden Blackmailed Obama With Homosexuality

130,638 views

Jul 9, 2024

The Alex Jones Show

Mike McCormick joins Alex Jones live to detail the covert crimes and
infighting he witnessed while working in the White House
during the Obama-Biden administration.

https://madmaxworld.tv/watch?id=668c47a4a8a8b85feddd35f3

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EB2oa7PXkAAtQ_k.jpg

Bobby. wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 8:38pm:

White House Whistleblower Believes Joe Biden Blackmailed Obama With Homosexuality 130,638 views Jul 9, 2024 The Alex Jones Show Mike McCormick joins Alex Jones live to detail the covert crimes and infighting he witnessed while working in the White House during the Obama-Biden administration. https://madmaxworld.tv/watch?id=668c47a4a8a8b85feddd35f3

I see. And do you believe that, Bobby?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 10:11pm:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EB2oa7PXkAAtQ_k.jpg

I'm not so sure Russia's listening, Greggery. Perhaps Congress would like to release the Epstein files in full, unredacted.

Or not. We'll have to wait and see what happens, no?

mothra wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 7:52am:

aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: The Law of Attraction and how it works! According to Law of Attraction, so many us subconsciously sabotage our own goodness by focusing on the things we don’t want or like about our life experiences. But if you have a sound understanding of the law, then you know that it does not discriminate against the things that you focus on. This means that even when you are focused on something that you do not wish to happen, you can subconsciously be drawing it into your experience. Yes, YOU could be attracting the very things that you resist. And what you resist, persist. When you push against something that you do not like, that very action isn’t what’s going to make it go away. In fact, Law of Attractions says that doing this will only amplify more of what you don’t want. If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Did you plagiarize that load of horseshit from Oprah Winfrey's reading list? There with "The Secret" was it? What an almost incomprehesible broad sweep, paying absolutely no mind to the actual realities of every day lives. And, as with all of Horse Boys guru worshiping self help garbage, it preaches to people with very little ground to move and who live the the utter luxury of not even needing to travel that far. Trite and meaningless at least toxic, highly damaging, simplistic, reductive and dehumanising at worst. Pop-psychological elitism.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img641/9394/yawnr.gif

Frank wrote on Jul 11^th, 2024 at 8:27pm:

mothra wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 7:52am: aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: The Law of Attraction and how it works! According to Law of Attraction, so many us subconsciously sabotage our own goodness by focusing on the things we don’t want or like about our life experiences. But if you have a sound understanding of the law, then you know that it does not discriminate against the things that you focus on. This means that even when you are focused on something that you do not wish to happen, you can subconsciously be drawing it into your experience. Yes, YOU could be attracting the very things that you resist. And what you resist, persist. When you push against something that you do not like, that very action isn’t what’s going to make it go away. In fact, Law of Attractions says that doing this will only amplify more of what you don’t want. If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Did you plagiarize that load of horseshit from Oprah Winfrey's reading list? There with "The Secret" was it? What an almost incomprehesible broad sweep, paying absolutely no mind to the actual realities of every day lives. And, as with all of Horse Boys guru worshiping self help garbage, it preaches to people with very little ground to move and who live the the utter luxury of not even needing to travel that far. Trite and meaningless at least toxic, highly damaging, simplistic, reductive and dehumanising at worst. Pop-psychological elitism. https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img641/9394/yawnr.gif

This is your, "in depth analysis", is it, Soren?  Tsk, tsk, tsk...  ::) ::)

Big Donger wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 11:17pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 9th, 2024 at 10:11pm: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EB2oa7PXkAAtQ_k.jpg I'm not so sure Russia's listening, Greggery. Perhaps Congress would like to release the Epstein files in full, unredacted. Or not. We'll have to wait and see what happens, no?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJorAVgHy7Y

Brian Ross wrote on Jul 12^th, 2024 at 12:16pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 11th, 2024 at 8:27pm: mothra wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 7:52am: aquascoot wrote on Jul 8th, 2024 at 5:20am: The Law of Attraction and how it works! According to Law of Attraction, so many us subconsciously sabotage our own goodness by focusing on the things we don’t want or like about our life experiences. But if you have a sound understanding of the law, then you know that it does not discriminate against the things that you focus on. This means that even when you are focused on something that you do not wish to happen, you can subconsciously be drawing it into your experience. Yes, YOU could be attracting the very things that you resist. And what you resist, persist. When you push against something that you do not like, that very action isn’t what’s going to make it go away. In fact, Law of Attractions says that doing this will only amplify more of what you don’t want. If you focus upon whatever you want, you will attract whatever you want. If you focus upon the lack of what you want, you will attract more of the lack.- Abraham Hicks The Law of Attraction also works in the same way as the law of gravity and motion combined. Did you plagiarize that load of horseshit from Oprah Winfrey's reading list? There with "The Secret" was it? What an almost incomprehesible broad sweep, paying absolutely no mind to the actual realities of every day lives. And, as with all of Horse Boys guru worshiping self help garbage, it preaches to people with very little ground to move and who live the the utter luxury of not even needing to travel that far. Trite and meaningless at least toxic, highly damaging, simplistic, reductive and dehumanising at worst. Pop-psychological elitism. https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img641/9394/yawnr.gif This is your, "in depth analysis", is it, Soren?  Tsk, tsk, tsk...  ::) ::)

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img641/9394/yawnr.gif

Big Donger wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 10:41pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jul 9th, 2024 at 8:38pm: White House Whistleblower Believes Joe Biden Blackmailed Obama With Homosexuality 130,638 views Jul 9, 2024 The Alex Jones Show Mike McCormick joins Alex Jones live to detail the covert crimes and infighting he witnessed while working in the White House during the Obama-Biden administration. https://madmaxworld.tv/watch?id=668c47a4a8a8b85feddd35f3 I see. And do you believe that, Bobby? A simple yes or no will suffice.

Yes - it's true.


https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/147/871/675/original/d81bf071c9cf8732.jpeg

From history:

The loss of the incumbency key:

Democrat Vice President Hubert Humphrey lost to Nixon when Johnson bowed out in 1968.

By 1968, Johnson's legacy and popularity were destroyed by Vietnam.

Republican Vice President George H W Bush won against Michael Dukakis after Reagan's second term ended in 1988.

By 1988, Reagan's popularity endured.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 22^nd, 2024 at 9:45am:

From history: The loss of the incumbency key: Democrat Vice President Hubert Humphrey lost to Nixon when Johnson bowed out in 1968. By 1968, Johnson's legacy and popularity were destroyed by Vietnam. Republican Vice President George H W Bush won against Michael Dukakis after Reagan's second term ended in 1988. By 1988, Reagan's popularity endured.

That's three keys now.

It'll be interesting to see what Lichtman has to say today.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 22^nd, 2024 at 10:35am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 22nd, 2024 at 9:45am: From history: The loss of the incumbency key: Democrat Vice President Hubert Humphrey lost to Nixon when Johnson bowed out in 1968. By 1968, Johnson's legacy and popularity were destroyed by Vietnam. Republican Vice President George H W Bush won against Michael Dukakis after Reagan's second term ended in 1988. By 1988, Reagan's popularity endured. That's three keys now. It'll be interesting to see what Lichtman has to say today.

Here we go:  https://www.fox5dc.com/video/1488768

So far the Democrats are indicating that there will not be any infighting over Harris and another candidate so, although the incumbency key is lost, they're on track to keep the contest key.

While Allan Lichtman has not made a final call on the 2024 election, (he'll do that in late August), he has tentatively predicted a Harris win by 8-5 or 9-4.

.

If Harris wins at all it will be due to the "Gen-Z" vote who cannot tolerate orange F A T T Y. 

Marla wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 9:18am:

If Harris wins at all it will be due to the "Gen-Z" vote who cannot tolerate orange F A T T Y.

Understandable.

Hard to tolerate rapists who steal money from kids' cancer charities.

We'll go through them one by one, shall we?

The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Red wave failed in 22.

2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. No contest at all.

Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

3. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent. campaign Kennedy's no Ross Perot, but he's taking numbers off Trump, not Harris.
.
4. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Booming.

5. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Read GDP grew 2.8% in the last quarter, 1.4% before that.

Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (I'm not sure).

No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (Social unrest is being driven by the incumbent party's challenger.)

6. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Hillary had her emails hacked and was investigated by the FBI. Karmala faces no such problems.

No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (Afghanistan withdrawal).

Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (Hardly).

Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Trump is the very definition of charismatic - a former TV celebrity who just missed a bullet).

That's 6 keys. Without any scandals before November, that's enough to win.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 11:58am:

We'll go through them one by one, shall we? The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows: 1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Red wave failed in 22. 2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. No contest at all. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 3. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent. campaign Kennedy's no Ross Perot, but he's taking numbers off Trump, not Harris. . 4. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Booming. 5. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Read GDP grew 2.8% in the last quarter, 1.4% before that. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (I'm not sure). No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (Social unrest is being driven by the incumbent party's challenger.) 6. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Hillary had her emails hacked and was investigated by the FBI. Karmala faces no such problems. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (Afghanistan withdrawal). Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (Hardly). Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Trump is the very definition of charismatic - a former TV celebrity who just missed a bullet). That's 6 keys. Without any scandals before November, that's enough to win.

The party in power needs 8 or more keys to hold the Whitehouse.

A loss of 6 or more keys will ensure the incumbent party will lose the election - 8-5 is the lowest bar to hold the Whitehouse.

Key 1 - Loss. The incumbent party must win more seats in the mid-terms than the previous mid-term.

Key 3 - Loss - Biden, the incumbent, is not seeking re-election.

Key 10 - Loss - Afghanistan and withdrawal was a failure.

Key 11 - likely loss - Ceasefire in Gaza has not been achieved.

Key 12 - Loss - Candidate needs to be highly charismatic (e.g. FDR. JFK, Ronald Reagan)

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 11:58am:

We'll go through them one by one, shall we? The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows: 1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Red wave failed in 22. 2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. No contest at all. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 3. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent. campaign Kennedy's no Ross Perot, but he's taking numbers off Trump, not Harris. . 4. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Booming. 5. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Read GDP grew 2.8% in the last quarter, 1.4% before that. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (I'm not sure). No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (Social unrest is being driven by the incumbent party's challenger.) 6. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Hillary had her emails hacked and was investigated by the FBI. Karmala faces no such problems. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (Afghanistan withdrawal). Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (Hardly). Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Trump is the very definition of charismatic - a former TV celebrity who just missed a bullet). That's 6 keys. Without any scandals before November, that's enough to win.

4 and 5 are disputable. Inflation is a big issue.

None of the 13 point cover the UN pp recedented flood of illegal immigrants, a very significant issue.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 11:58am:

We'll go through them one by one, shall we? The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows: 1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Red wave failed in 22. 2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. No contest at all. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 3. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent. campaign Kennedy's no Ross Perot, but he's taking numbers off Trump, not Harris. . 4. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Booming. 5. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Read GDP grew 2.8% in the last quarter, 1.4% before that. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (I'm not sure). No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (Social unrest is being driven by the incumbent party's challenger.) 6. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Hillary had her emails hacked and was investigated by the FBI. Karmala faces no such problems. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (Afghanistan withdrawal). Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (Hardly). Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Trump is the very definition of charismatic - a former TV celebrity who just missed a bullet). That's 6 keys. Without any scandals before November, that's enough to win.

4 and 5 are disputable. Inflation is a big issue. Housing affordability, ditto.

None of the 13 point cover the unprecedented flood of illegal immigrants, a very significant issue.


To a significant degree, the US is NO LONGER the country it was 40 years ago when Tichman devised his method.

To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 12:33pm:

To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 1:46pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.

NOT an election you dumbarse ::)

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 1:46pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.

WTF are you talking about?   ::)

To be clear, Biden is the incumbent president who is not seeking reelection, which Lichtman goes to lengths to point out is the point of key 4.

Harris has not succeeded him nor has Biden been ousted, nor has he resigned (which, incidentally, Lichtman recommended he do, which would have automatically led to Harris being sworn in as president - thereby preserving key 4).

Currently, Biden is at the same status as Truman and Johnson before him - both incumbent presidents who did not seek a second term.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 2:30pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him. WTF are you talking about?   ::)

11 of the 13 keys refer to the fate of the incumbent party holding the presidency, not the incumbent president - with keys 12 and 13 only, referring to the incumbent president (key 12) and his/her other-party rival (key 13).

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 12:30pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 11:58am: We'll go through them one by one, shall we? The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows: 1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Red wave failed in 22. 2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. No contest at all. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 3. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent. campaign Kennedy's no Ross Perot, but he's taking numbers off Trump, not Harris. . 4. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Booming. 5. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Read GDP grew 2.8% in the last quarter, 1.4% before that. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (I'm not sure). No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (Social unrest is being driven by the incumbent party's challenger.) 6. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Hillary had her emails hacked and was investigated by the FBI. Karmala faces no such problems. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (Afghanistan withdrawal). Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (Hardly). Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Trump is the very definition of charismatic - a former TV celebrity who just missed a bullet). That's 6 keys. Without any scandals before November, that's enough to win. 4 and 5 are disputable. Inflation is a big issue. Housing affordability, ditto. None of the 13 point cover the unprecedented flood of illegal immigrants, a very significant issue. To a significant degree, the US is NO LONGER the country it was 40 years ago when Tichman devised his method.

A 0.6% drop in goods prices in the last two months, old boy. That's deflation.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-rises-moderately-june-2024-07-26/

Wall Street's currently booming on the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates. Our own Reserve Bank's taking notice. The US economy could not be in any better shape for an election.

The US currently has one of the best-performing economies in the OECD, and that's on the Dems. Sleepy Joe's Jobs/Infrastructure and Chips Acts got things moving.

The border is one issue, so thanks for the reminder. It's your DL's last remaining hope - a single-issue election on immigration. Your DL's selling it as a foreign/military failure - an invasion, trying to steal a key.

But I'm curious. When has a US presidential candidate ever won an election on one issue?

Carter Watergate? Reagan Iran hostage crisis? Clinton economy stupid?

Noooo. All of those campaigns were won for a host of different reasons, but do you know?

DL has no solution. Karmala just has to point that out. The Biden administration's been working on a 2500 a week limit. Anybody else - back to where they came from.

DL's promising a massive border force with a network of concentration camps. No worries, how's he going to fund it? Sleepy Joe went to Congress with a request to fund more patrols and judges. Noooo, Mike said, back to where you came from.

DL says he'll just use the po-lice. Talk to Arizona and Texas. Ask them to give him hundreds of cops to chase the illegals. Easy-peasy.

Oh, and ignore the other half of the border with California and New Mexico - they're run by the leftards. Greg can bus his illegals over to them. 

If I was Karmala, I'd be pointing all this out. Bust his ditzy bubble. You're right. The US is most certainly not the country it was 40 years ago. It's currently dealing with the damage your DL's done in nine short years.

How does it feeeel?

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 2:30pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him. WTF are you talking about?   ::)

He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere.

Cunning, no?

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 2:58pm:

The border is one issue, so thanks for the reminder. It's your DL's last remaining hope - a single-issue election on immigration. Your DL's selling it as a foreign/military failure - an invasion, trying to steal a key.

What Trump is attempting to do is to foment social unrest over immigration such that key 8 - no social unrest - falls. His backup plan is abortion, but he is failing with that.

However, for the "no social unrest" key to fall, the unrest needs to be on a Vietnam protests level, or a George Floyd/BLM level - which is highly unlikely.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 3:15pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him. WTF are you talking about?   ::) He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere. Cunning, no?

However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3).

They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 3:41pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him. WTF are you talking about?   ::) He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere. Cunning, no? However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3). They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.

Given the energy injected into the Democratic campaign by the Harris support, Biden is now the lamest of lame-duck presidents since Johnson.

His resignation, propelling Harrus into the presidency, could be on the cards, although at the risk of it appearing too much of a political tactic, as opposed to a selfless gesture for the good of the nation.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 3:41pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him. WTF are you talking about?   ::) He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere. Cunning, no? However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3). They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.

Not so sure about that.

Harris is not the nominee yet. Just the VP. It's not for Biden or Obama to anoint her, it is for the party convention.

If Biden is not fit to run he's not fit to be pre (hasn't been since day 1).

Kackela owns all his failings since 2020 with no positives of her own.

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 5:15pm:

If Biden is not fit to run ...

He didn't say he's not fit to run.

Maybe you should watch his speech again.

Social unrest? Yes, Meister, I'm guessing Lichtman was referring to Vietnam/civil rights-era levels of unrest. That's what did LBJ in.

Nixon campaigned on social unrest. The unrest amplified over his time in office to the stage where the White House was under constant siege by protesters and police.

The George Floyd riots were over in a few days, totally separate to BLM protests - no deaths or violence at any of the marches held around the world, excluding those that faced counter-protests and attacks by white nationalists.

Aside from the odd community reaction to police killing blacks, the only civil violence in recent times has been protests over Gaza, confined to college campuses. You've gotta love Trump's cynical response to that, promising to send in the military when he knows from his experience in Portland how unconstitutional that would be. Remember when he threatened to send the military in to guard a sole federal building?

Social unrest during Biden's time in office pales in comparison to the far-right violence of the Trump era. Check it out:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States

Much of that unrest was directly inflamed by the words of the president himself. One was organized by his own team and incited by the president's own instructions - an attack ruled to have caused the deaths of six people; the first invasion of the US Capitol since the War of 1812.

Nobody does social unrest better than Trump, and all Karmala has to do is remind the voters. It's easy to forget that Trump mobilized his unrest at the peak of a global pandemic, well before vaccines had been rolled out, when health officials were desperately trying to keep gatherings to a minimum.

The death toll of Jan 6 excludes deaths caused by covid, at its deadliest at the time, with over 40,000 deaths a week. Not only did Trump rally protesters against the advice of his own health officials, he discouraged social distancing and the wearing of masks.

Imagine, leaders like Boris Johnson were exposed for failing to follow their own covid regulations. Johnson was brought down for hosting a staff birthday party in his office.

Trump, by contrast, mobilized thousands of maskless protesters and told them to march to the Capitol, where government employees, congresspeople and senators were following strict instructions to prevent infecting the nation's lawmakers.

Social unrest hardly captures what Trump did on Jan 6, Meister, but now he's running again. No wonder he's refusing to debate his political opponent. In any other country, he'd be safely locked away - for social unrest.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 3:41pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him. WTF are you talking about?   ::) He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere. Cunning, no? However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3). They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.

True, but maybe Lichtman needs to add a new key: the candidate opposing the incumbent is under 80. 

Biden's only problem was his age. Americans expect an energetic leader who can remember the name of the foreign leader they're addressing.

As long as Karmala doesn't get Nancy Pelosi mixed up with Nikki Haley, call the Apple CEO Tim Apple or call our own PM Malcolm Turntable, she should be right.

That's a lot of names, no?

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 5:15pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:41pm: Big Donger wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm: To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860. To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him. WTF are you talking about?   ::) He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere. Cunning, no? However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3). They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2. Not so sure about that. Harris is not the nominee yet. Just the VP. It's not for Biden or Obama to anoint her, it is for the party convention. If Biden is not fit to run he's not fit to be pre (hasn't been since day 1). Kackela owns all his failings since 2020 with no positives of her own.

Biden's fit to govern, dear. He's proven that since Day 1.

Your DL, on the other hand, promises to become a dictator on Day 1.

No, I'm not making it up, he said so himself. He later went on to dig himself in, saying how mean and nasty he'd be on Day 1.

You know, he plans to hand energy policy over to big oil, launch a nationwide manhunt of all illegals, throw Ukraine under the bus, lock the leftards up and terminate all rules, laws and articles, including those in the Constitution.

He only said Day 1. I'm sure he'd be pretty nice after that.

You?

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 5:16pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm: If Biden is not fit to run ... He didn't say he's not fit to run.

True.

Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said.

Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years.

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 6:01pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm: If Biden is not fit to run ... He didn't say he's not fit to run. True. Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said. Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years.

So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border?

I'm curious.

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 6:01pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm: If Biden is not fit to run ... He didn't say he's not fit to run. True. Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said. Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years.

You sound hurt, dear boy. You always say Soros when you're in pain.

Is it your safe word?

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 6:03pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm: If Biden is not fit to run ... He didn't say he's not fit to run. True. Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said. Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years. So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border? I'm curious.

He is a moth eaten sock puppet.  'Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like. He was 'sharp as a tack' until he had to have a camera on him for 90 minutes. Then the jig was up, the emperor-puppet had no clothes and so he was thrown over-board.

He has never been in charge except what ice cream he had. If that. He was managed, coddled, shielded, talked up to a ridiculous extent - until he was unceremoniously defenestrated.
A puppet all along.

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 6:16pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:03pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm: If Biden is not fit to run ... He didn't say he's not fit to run. True. Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said. Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years. So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border? I'm curious. He is a moth eaten sock puppet.  'Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like. He was 'sharp as a tack' until he had to have a camera on him for 90 minutes. Then the jig was up, the emperor-puppet had no clothes and so he was thrown over-board. He has never been in charge except what ice cream he had. If that. He was managed, coddled, shielded, talked up to a ridiculous extent - until he was unceremoniously defenestrated. A puppet all along.

So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border?

Big Donger wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 5:37pm:

True, but maybe Lichtman needs to add a new key: the candidate opposing the incumbent is under 80.  \

That's something Lichtman gets swamped with every 4 years!

'You've gotta change your keys... we've never had an old man (Reagan!)/ black candidate/ woman before so...'

Lictman's 13 keys have been retrospectively tested and predictive since Lincoln's 1860 election to 2020 with a 100% success rate... through slavery, Civil War, reconstruction, Jim Crow, women's suffrage, prohibition, depression, world wars, Cold War, Vietnam, Watergate, 70s recession, old candidate, military adventurism, recessions, black candidate...

Why would he change his keys mid-flight for 2024?

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 6:52pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:16pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:03pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm: If Biden is not fit to run ... He didn't say he's not fit to run. True. Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said. Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years. So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border? I'm curious. He is a moth eaten sock puppet.  'Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like. He was 'sharp as a tack' until he had to have a camera on him for 90 minutes. Then the jig was up, the emperor-puppet had no clothes and so he was thrown over-board. He has never been in charge except what ice cream he had. If that. He was managed, coddled, shielded, talked up to a ridiculous extent - until he was unceremoniously defenestrated. A puppet all along. So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border?

Look, moronic creep, look with all your eyes. Look.

It is highlighted for you, moron.

Quote:

Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 6:16pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:03pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm: If Biden is not fit to run ... He didn't say he's not fit to run. True. Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said. Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years. So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border? I'm curious. He is a moth eaten sock puppet.  'Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like. He was 'sharp as a tack' until he had to have a camera on him for 90 minutes. Then the jig was up, the emperor-puppet had no clothes and so he was thrown over-board. He has never been in charge except what ice cream he had. If that. He was managed, coddled, shielded, talked up to a ridiculous extent - until he was unceremoniously defenestrated. A puppet all along.

All good. Should we include this in your concession speech on November 5?

You can congratulate Karmala on her victory, praise the American people for their decision and offer your thoughts and prayers to the next president of the United States of America.

After that, you can inform everyone that Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse, call it what you like, etc, etc, defenestration, feeling a little sore in the bottom, etc, so unfair.

I mean, we can change a few words around on the night, but are you okay with the gist of that?

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 8:03pm:

Quote: Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like

Good idea. Use it as a quote.

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, as the late old boy said, “Biden” is a mere road sign. I think we can safely agree that no truer word has been uttered, no? Remember, we were out to win this erection and frankly we did win this erection, if you factor in our loss, rigged, witch hunt, so unfair, etc.

So let me conclude by saying that Karmala is one hell of a gal, even if she is a Mulatto or whatever the polite term for half-breeds is in these enlightened times. Either way, she is now our prez and we congratulate her on her victory.

God bless the USA, ja? 

With Lichtman's tentative prediction leaning toward a Harris win by 8-5, 2 keys (currently likely losses) could convert to wins:

Key 10 - No foreign or military failure - which could convert to a win with a ceasefire deal in Gaza

and

Key 11 - Major foreign or military success - which could also convert to a win with a ceasefire deal in Gaza or a major breakthrough in the status of the Ukraine war in US foreign policy favour.

On the other side of the ledger, key 4 (no 3rd party candidate) and key 8 (no social unrest) although unlikely, could convert to losses.

Key 4 would require RFK jr to poll at 10% or more (currently highly unlikely)

and

Key 8 - if the pro-Palestinian protests reach the level of Vietnam or BLM - currently unlikely.

The border issue currently does not figure as an issue that will have any effect on turning any key either way.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 12:16am:

Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 8:03pm: Quote: Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like Good idea. Use it as a quote. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, as the late old boy said, “Biden” is a mere road sign. I think we can safely agree that no truer word has been uttered, no? Remember, we were out to win this erection and frankly we did win this erection, if you factor in our loss, rigged, witch hunt, so unfair, etc. So let me conclude by saying that Karmala is one hell of a gal, even if she is a Mulatto or whatever the polite term for half-breeds is in these enlightened times. Either way, she is now our prez and we congratulate her on her victory. God bless the USA, ja?

Kackela has been the Liar-in-Chief.

The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins—is because of a lie. The reason the Democrats are going to scramble to whip a majority of their 3,936 delegates into line behind Vice President Kamala Harris—the reason the most basic elements of the Democratic (and democratic) process are being so dramatically challenged—is because of the lie that everyone around Joe Biden told themselves and then told the public.

By now, there is no denying that that’s exactly what happened.

Once the reality of Biden’s deteriorating condition became plain on that CNN debate stage, the question was only who was going to admit what they knew and when.
...

Now we are faced with the fact the very same people who last month insisted that Biden was at the top of his game have now shoved him into some Delaware basement and are sporting “Harris ’24” sweatshirts. How are we supposed to believe anything they say?

https://www.thefp.com/p/bari-weiss-the-era-of-the-noble-lie

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 8:37am:

. The border issue currently does not figure as an issue that will have any effect on turning any key either way.

Which doesn't mean that it is not a huge, even decisive issue for this election.

It is unprecedented, that's why the 13 points have no angle on it.

Frank wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 1:43pm:

The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ...

... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention.

Jesus, you're bad at this   ::)

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 1:58pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::)

I don't know how he can be such a cheerleader for the American elections, and yet at the same time be so clueless as to how they work. :D :D :D

Surely he doesn't just rely on bitchute for his information? :o

John Smith wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 2:07pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:58pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::) I don't know how he can be such a cheerleader for the American elections, and yet at the same time be so clueless as to how they work. :D :D :D Surely he doesn't just rely on bitchute for his information? :o

It's astounding how ignorant some of these people are.

The nominees are chosen at the party conventions.

The GOP had their convention a couple of weeks ago, and they subsequently chose their nominee.

The Democrats haven't had their convention yet, so obviously they haven't chosen their nominee yet.

This is basic stuff.  I don't know why it's so difficult for some people to understand.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 1:58pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::)

No. Biden was the nominee, had all the delegates. Agreed to two debates, showed up for the first, chickened out of the second.

They lied about him shamelessly, led by Krackela, until they no longer could get away with the lie.

The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins—is because of a lie. The reason the Democrats are going to scramble to whip a majority of their 3,936 delegates into line behind Vice President Kamala Harris—the reason the most basic elements of the Democratic (and democratic) process are being so dramatically challenged—is because of the lie that everyone around Joe Biden told themselves and then told the public.

By now, there is no denying that that’s exactly what happened.

Once the reality of Biden’s deteriorating condition became plain on that CNN debate stage, the question was only who was going to admit what they knew and when.
...

Now we are faced with the fact the very same people who last month insisted that Biden was at the top of his game have now shoved him into some Delaware basement and are sporting “Harris ’24” sweatshirts. How are we supposed to believe anything they say?

Frank wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 2:33pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:58pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::) No. Biden was the nominee, ...

Nope.

The nominee isn't chosen until August.

Joe was the presumptive nominee, but that's no guarantee of being the actual candidate.

Similarly, Kamala isn't the nominee yet - she's the presumptive nominee.

She still has to face a vote at the convention.

Lichtman’s keys have been retroactively and forward predictive through every US social and political trauma since 1860.

When it comes to the border issue… this has been a thing since the border states were taken from Mexico and Spain in the 19th century. It’s not for no reason that so many cities’ and regions’ names in the area are in Spanish!

For 150 years, southern border crossings bothered virtually no one.

What has turned the issue seriously bad is the US obsession with cocaine and the resultant interest in South American cartels controlling the border regions, combined with much of South America’s countries destabilised by decades of US involvement in crushing socialist movements and installing, then supporting, psychopathic dictatorships.

Every Yank knows this - it’s a problem created by Yanks.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 2:39pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 2:33pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:58pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::) No. Biden was the nominee, ... Nope. The nominee isn't chosen until August. Joe was the presumptive nominee, but that's no guarantee of being the actual candidate. Similarly, Kamala isn't the nominee yet - she's the presumptive nominee. She still has to face a vote at the convention.

That’s correct.

Biden and the Democrats are aware of Lichtman’s keys and are ensuring they keep the ‘no contest key’ by their unprecedented support of Harris such that her formal nomination in August is, well… merely a formality; as Biden’s would have been had he not bowed out due to old age.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 2:44pm:

Lichtman’s keys have been retroactively and forward predictive through every US social and political trauma since 1860. When it comes to the border issue… this has been a thing since the border states were taken from Mexico and Spain in the 19th century. It’s not for no reason that so many cities’ and regions’ names in the area are in Spanish! For 150 years, southern border crossings bothered virtually no one. What has turned the issue seriously bad is the US obsession with cocaine and the resultant interest in South American cartels controlling the border regions, combined with much of South America’s countries destabilised by decades of US involvement in crushing socialist movements and installing, then supporting, psychopathic dictatorships. Every Yank knows this - it’s a problem created by Yanks.

The demographic transformation of the US and much of the  Western world by barely controlled third world immigration is unprecedented.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 2:49pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 2:39pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 2:33pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:58pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::) No. Biden was the nominee, ... Nope. The nominee isn't chosen until August. Joe was the presumptive nominee, but that's no guarantee of being the actual candidate. Similarly, Kamala isn't the nominee yet - she's the presumptive nominee. She still has to face a vote at the convention. That’s correct. Biden and the Democrats are aware of Lichtman’s keys and are ensuring they keep the ‘no contest key’ by their unprecedented support of Harris such that her formal nomination in August is, well… merely a formality; as Biden’s would have been had he not bowed out due to old age.

Why did Biden and the Dem machine agree to TWO debates, the second on 10 September, then, if there was no Dam candidate? Of course there wa as, Biden. Had all delegates committed.

They have been lying about him for years, right up until the end of the fire t debate. Then, as they already knew Biden would bomb, ther ed was an instant chorus calling for him to step aside. Jill dug his heels in for weeks, lying more about jetlag and a cold and whatnot.
It is all theatre and we are only at the end of the second act.

https://www.heraldnews.com/gcdn/authoring/2014/10/04/NHER/ghows-WL-05e7ddd0-0685-4417-affb-46e56a90c596-ee106a55.jpeg

Frank wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 1:43pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 12:16am: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 8:03pm: Quote: Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like Good idea. Use it as a quote. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, as the late old boy said, “Biden” is a mere road sign. I think we can safely agree that no truer word has been uttered, no? Remember, we were out to win this erection and frankly we did win this erection, if you factor in our loss, rigged, witch hunt, so unfair, etc. So let me conclude by saying that Karmala is one hell of a gal, even if she is a Mulatto or whatever the polite term for half-breeds is in these enlightened times. Either way, she is now our prez and we congratulate her on her victory. God bless the USA, ja?  Kackela has been the Liar-in-Chief. The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins—is because of a lie. The reason the Democrats are going to scramble to whip a majority of their 3,936 delegates into line behind Vice President Kamala Harris—the reason the most basic elements of the Democratic (and democratic) process are being so dramatically challenged—is because of the lie that everyone around Joe Biden told themselves and then told the public. By now, there is no denying that that’s exactly what happened. Once the reality of Biden’s deteriorating condition became plain on that CNN debate stage, the question was only who was going to admit what they knew and when. ... Now we are faced with the fact the very same people who last month insisted that Biden was at the top of his game have now shoved him into some Delaware basement and are sporting “Harris ’24” sweatshirts. How are we supposed to believe anything they say? https://www.thefp.com/p/bari-weiss-the-era-of-the-noble-lie

Just so, dear boy. So when the results come in on November 5, you can scream all this in your shriekiest voice. Lies! Cheats! Witch hunts! How very dare they!

The erection can be called off and your DL sworn in. After all, you've always been a proud supporter of democracy, no?

Rule of law, innit.

Frank wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 2:33pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:58pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::) No. Biden was the nominee, had all the delegates. Agreed to two debates, showed up for the first, chickened out of the second. They lied about him shamelessly, led by Krackela, until they no longer could get away with the lie. The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins—is because of a lie. The reason the Democrats are going to scramble to whip a majority of their 3,936 delegates into line behind Vice President Kamala Harris—the reason the most basic elements of the Democratic (and democratic) process are being so dramatically challenged—is because of the lie that everyone around Joe Biden told themselves and then told the public. By now, there is no denying that that’s exactly what happened. Once the reality of Biden’s deteriorating condition became plain on that CNN debate stage, the question was only who was going to admit what they knew and when. ... Now we are faced with the fact the very same people who last month insisted that Biden was at the top of his game have now shoved him into some Delaware basement and are sporting “Harris ’24” sweatshirts. How are we supposed to believe anything they say?

Oh? All we seem to remember is everybody telling you that no matter how decrepit Sleepy Joe is/isn't, he's proven to be a far better prez than your DL, in every possible way.

Remember, every time the truth came out about your DL cheating US friends and allies or asking if Finland was a part of Russia or dissing US veterans as suckers and losers or proposing moats be built alongside his big, beautiful wall to be filled with alligators and poisonous snakes, etc, etc, etc, you were more than keen to hear lies.

Noooo! You said, I simply can't beat it! No more!

Good to hear you're back into truth again, dear boy.

How long do you think that'll last?

Big Donger wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 4:15pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: Big Donger wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 12:16am: Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 8:03pm: Quote: Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like Good idea. Use it as a quote. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, as the late old boy said, “Biden” is a mere road sign. I think we can safely agree that no truer word has been uttered, no? Remember, we were out to win this erection and frankly we did win this erection, if you factor in our loss, rigged, witch hunt, so unfair, etc. So let me conclude by saying that Karmala is one hell of a gal, even if she is a Mulatto or whatever the polite term for half-breeds is in these enlightened times. Either way, she is now our prez and we congratulate her on her victory. God bless the USA, ja?  Kackela has been the Liar-in-Chief. The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins—is because of a lie. The reason the Democrats are going to scramble to whip a majority of their 3,936 delegates into line behind Vice President Kamala Harris—the reason the most basic elements of the Democratic (and democratic) process are being so dramatically challenged—is because of the lie that everyone around Joe Biden told themselves and then told the public. By now, there is no denying that that’s exactly what happened. Once the reality of Biden’s deteriorating condition became plain on that CNN debate stage, the question was only who was going to admit what they knew and when. ... Now we are faced with the fact the very same people who last month insisted that Biden was at the top of his game have now shoved him into some Delaware basement and are sporting “Harris ’24” sweatshirts. How are we supposed to believe anything they say? https://www.thefp.com/p/bari-weiss-the-era-of-the-noble-lie Just so, dear boy. So when the results come in on November 5, you can scream all this in your shriekiest voice. Lies! Cheats! Witch hunts! How very dare they! The erection can be called off and your DL sworn in. After all, you've always been a proud supporter of democracy, no? Rule of law, innit.

Why have they been lying for months, years (how long?) about Biden's obvious cognitive decline?

Please explain, paki,  instead of tapdancing and grimacing once again like a bloody idiot.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 4:40pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 2:33pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:58pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::) No. Biden was the nominee, had all the delegates. Agreed to two debates, showed up for the first, chickened out of the second. They lied about him shamelessly, led by Krackela, until they no longer could get away with the lie. The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins—is because of a lie. The reason the Democrats are going to scramble to whip a majority of their 3,936 delegates into line behind Vice President Kamala Harris—the reason the most basic elements of the Democratic (and democratic) process are being so dramatically challenged—is because of the lie that everyone around Joe Biden told themselves and then told the public. By now, there is no denying that that’s exactly what happened. Once the reality of Biden’s deteriorating condition became plain on that CNN debate stage, the question was only who was going to admit what they knew and when. ... Now we are faced with the fact the very same people who last month insisted that Biden was at the top of his game have now shoved him into some Delaware basement and are sporting “Harris ’24” sweatshirts. How are we supposed to believe anything they say? Oh? All we seem to remember is everybody telling you that no matter how decrepit Sleepy Joe is/isn't, he's proven to be a far better prez than your DL, in every possible way.

"All we seem to remember"? "Everybody telling you"?

Who? You and lying creep? The Dem machine? Big Media? Kackela?  Curly Karine? Who? All the people who have been lying about Biden all along?


Handsome boy Clooney wrote in the NYT after the debate farce that Biden was exactly like that weeks before, when he was hosting a fundraiser for the sock puppet. Whoever was priming Biden for a week before the debate already knew that he would bomb. Hence the instant Greek chorus calling for him to step aside. Biden has been incoherent for years, yet they propped him up and lied about him.
Now they are changing the puppet, from Moth eaten to Kackela sock puppet.

They could have done it the hard way, as Nancy whispered in Biden's ear, but they did it the easy way. Still, the lies and deceptions continue.

Why? That's a hard one, old boy. I dare say we'll need a thorough investigation. We should have the results in by next year.

Now, we're still awaiting the results of your DL's cognitive test. What happened to them, do you think?

Hacked and put on Wikileaks by Russia Russia Russia? Couriered through to Tucker on a USB? Stored securely on the ballroom stage at Mar a Lago?

I'm sure if the FBI ask nicely enough, he'll hand them over, but do you know? They have to say please.

And they have to call him sir.

You?

Big Donger wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 5:21pm:

Why? That's a hard one, old boy. I dare say we'll need a thorough investigation. We should have the results in by next year. Now, we're still awaiting the results of your DL's cognitive test. What happened to them, do you think? Hacked and put on Wikileaks by Russia Russia Russia? Couriered through to Tucker on a USB? Stored securely on the ballroom stage at Mar a Lago? I'm sure if the FBI ask nicely enough, he'll hand them over, but do you know? They have to say please. And they have to call him sir. You?

You don't need a cognitive test from Fauci to see that Biden has been ganga for years, declining steadily. Everyone has seen it, even as the Dems and their cheer squad have plucked out their lying eyes and tried to do the same to everyone. Right up to the minute when the debate ended and the lie could not be sustained.
Jill and Joe still tried to handle on because they alone believed the lying propaganda.

Your instant switch to "what about Trumps cognitive test" is stup I is and dishonest, as you well know, but you just can't help yourself. You act exactly like people caught out lying: "Look over there! Birdy num-num".
Pathetic.

Frank wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 5:19pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 4:40pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 2:33pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:58pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::) No. Biden was the nominee, had all the delegates. Agreed to two debates, showed up for the first, chickened out of the second. They lied about him shamelessly, led by Krackela, until they no longer could get away with the lie. The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins—is because of a lie. The reason the Democrats are going to scramble to whip a majority of their 3,936 delegates into line behind Vice President Kamala Harris—the reason the most basic elements of the Democratic (and democratic) process are being so dramatically challenged—is because of the lie that everyone around Joe Biden told themselves and then told the public. By now, there is no denying that that’s exactly what happened. Once the reality of Biden’s deteriorating condition became plain on that CNN debate stage, the question was only who was going to admit what they knew and when. ... Now we are faced with the fact the very same people who last month insisted that Biden was at the top of his game have now shoved him into some Delaware basement and are sporting “Harris ’24” sweatshirts. How are we supposed to believe anything they say? Oh? All we seem to remember is everybody telling you that no matter how decrepit Sleepy Joe is/isn't, he's proven to be a far better prez than your DL, in every possible way. "All we seem to remember"? "Everybody telling you"? Who? You and lying creep? The Dem machine? Big Media? Kackela?  Curly Karine? Who? All the people who have been lying about Biden all along? Handsome boy Clooney wrote in the NYT after the debate farce that Biden was exactly like that weeks before, when he was hosting a fundraiser for the sock puppet. Whoever was priming Biden for a week before the debate already knew that he would bomb. Hence the instant Greek chorus calling for him to step aside. Biden has been incoherent for years, yet they propped him up and lied about him. Now they are changing the puppet, from Moth eaten to Kackela sock puppet. They could have done it the hard way, as Nancy whispered in Biden's ear, but they did it the easy way. Still, the lies and deceptions continue.

Typical. So what are they lying about now, dear chap?

Karmala's birthplace in Kingston, Jamaica? Her secret life as a Voodoo High Priestess? Her senior leadership role in a San Francisco paedophile ring?

Please be specific. We prefer to flesh out the more pertinent facts on this site, dear.

We'll need to wait and see what happens, no?

Frank wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 5:36pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 5:21pm: Why? That's a hard one, old boy. I dare say we'll need a thorough investigation. We should have the results in by next year. Now, we're still awaiting the results of your DL's cognitive test. What happened to them, do you think? Hacked and put on Wikileaks by Russia Russia Russia? Couriered through to Tucker on a USB? Stored securely on the ballroom stage at Mar a Lago? I'm sure if the FBI ask nicely enough, he'll hand them over, but do you know? They have to say please. And they have to call him sir. You? You don't need a cognitive test from Fauci to see that Biden has been ganga for years, declining steadily. Everyone has seen it, even as the Dems and their cheer squad have plucked out their lying eyes and tried to do the same to everyone. Right up to the minute when the debate ended and the lie could not be sustained. Jill and Joe still tried to handle on because they alone believed the lying propaganda. Your instant switch to "what about Trumps cognitive test" is stup I is and dishonest, as you well know, but you just can't help yourself. You act exactly like people caught out lying: "Look over there! Birdy num-num". Pathetic.

Good point, old boy, I stand corrected. Your link is most compelling, after all.

No, we don't need to see the big fella's dementia test - the debate says it all, no? The Dems have been lying all along. Here's what the big fella pointed out in the debate:

It's perfectly legal to pay off porn stars and Playboy models using legal expenses. People do it all the time.

Food costs have doubled, tripled and quadrupled - bacon is now selling at $20 a rasher, can you imagine?

The Dems are currently aborting babies in the eighth month, ninth month and, in many cases, well into infancy and early childhood.

They're emptying out their prisons, mental hospitals and insane asylums, busing them to the southern border, taking off their straightjackets and pointing them in the direction of America.

He listed a few other facts I haven't gone into, dear boy, but you're right.

People often play look-over-there when they're caught out lying.

What were you saying about Fauci again?

Frank wrote on Jul 28^th, 2024 at 3:59pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 2:49pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 2:39pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 2:33pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:58pm: Frank wrote on Jul 28th, 2024 at 1:43pm: The reason there is no Democratic presidential nominee right now—27 days before the party’s convention in Chicago begins ... ... is because the Democratic nominee isn't chosen until the party's Convention. Jesus, you're bad at this   ::) No. Biden was the nominee, ... Nope. The nominee isn't chosen until August. Joe was the presumptive nominee, but that's no guarantee of being the actual candidate. Similarly, Kamala isn't the nominee yet - she's the presumptive nominee. She still has to face a vote at the convention. That’s correct. Biden and the Democrats are aware of Lichtman’s keys and are ensuring they keep the ‘no contest key’ by their unprecedented support of Harris such that her formal nomination in August is, well… merely a formality; as Biden’s would have been had he not bowed out due to old age. Why did Biden and the Dem machine agree to TWO debates, the second on 10 September, then, ...

Because they knew there would be a presumptive nominee on 10 September.

Next question.

One thing to remember about keys 8, 10 and 11...

10 and 11 refer to military actions / foreign policy failure where the US is involved with a foreign power/war. They do not refer to or rely on domestic issues - e.g. Gaza, the Ukraine war.

Key 8 (no social unrest) refers to domestic issues only - e.g. BLM, the border issue. However, sometimes keys 10 and 11 can trigger significant social unrest - e.g. potentially, pro-Palestine/anti-Israel protests.

The Republicans and the Democrats currently both staunchly support Israel, so there is no room for Trump to hype pro-Palestine protests as a social unrest issue - hence his heavy focus on the southern border, and illegal immigration in general.

Of course, given his narcissistic obsession with catastrophising every issue, Trump will continue to overplay his hand on this- like conflating the current border issue with the Mariel boatlift of 1980.

Neither he nor Vance will risk touching on the root cause of the worst aspect of the southern border issue - Americans' obsession with cocaine.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 29^th, 2024 at 10:21am:

The Republicans and the Democrats currently both staunchly support Israel, so there is no room for Trump to hype pro-Palestine protests as a social unrest issue - hence his heavy focus on the southern border, and illegal immigration in general. Of course, given his narcissistic obsession with catastrophising every issue, Trump will continue to overplay his hand on this- like conflating the current border issue with the Mariel boatlift of 1980. Neither he nor Vance will risk touching on the root cause of the worst aspect of the southern border issue - Americans' obsession with cocaine.

Fentanyl.  Child trafficking. Crime. Job losses. millions of illegals.

Not cocaine alone.

The US is not like it was in the 60s or 80s

Frank wrote on Jul 29^th, 2024 at 11:31am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 29th, 2024 at 10:21am: The Republicans and the Democrats currently both staunchly support Israel, so there is no room for Trump to hype pro-Palestine protests as a social unrest issue - hence his heavy focus on the southern border, and illegal immigration in general. Of course, given his narcissistic obsession with catastrophising every issue, Trump will continue to overplay his hand on this- like conflating the current border issue with the Mariel boatlift of 1980. Neither he nor Vance will risk touching on the root cause of the worst aspect of the southern border issue - Americans' obsession with cocaine. ... Child trafficking. ...

Speaking of which: https://abcnews.go.com/US/rep-matt-gaetz-subpoenaed-defamation-suit-woman-allegedly/story?id=108098265

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 29^th, 2024 at 10:21am:

Neither he nor Vance will risk touching on the root cause of the worst aspect of the southern border issue - Americans' obsession with cocaine.

Although neither party is ready for it, the legalisation or decriminalisation of cocaine use, combined with its domestic cultivation and controlled distribution, would go a long way towards ending overnight the most serious criminal element of the border issue.

According to Lichtman's keys, the most popular incumbent presidents (losing 3 or fewer keys) are:

Theodore Roosevelt - 0
Franklin D. Roosevelt - 1,2,2
Dwight D. Eisenhower - 1
Ronald Reagan -2
Abraham Lincoln -3
Ulysses S. Grant - 3
William McKinley -3
William Howard Taft -3
Woodrow Wilson -3
Herbert Hoover -3
Lyndon B. Johnson -3
George H. W. Bush -3
Barack Obama -3

Trump's speech in St Cloud. Minnesota is in keeping with expectations -

He voiced support for Israel.

Ranted about abortion and, of course, post-birth abortions - which he now calls executions - claiming Harris supports it.

Continued to conflate the border issue with, a teenage comical distortion, of the 1980 Mariel boatlift - thousands of patients from mental asylums from South American mental asylums making their way like zombies to the US border.

And, as weirdly hilarious as it can get: his obsession with crowd size, which is as genuinely a comedy act worthy as that of Borat at a Khasakhstani porn star competition ranting about the size of his khram.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 6:42am:

Trump's speech in St Cloud. Minnesota is in keeping with expectations - He voiced support for Israel. Ranted about abortion and, of course, post-birth abortions - which he now calls executions - claiming Harris supports it. Continued to conflate the border issue with, a teenage comical distortion, of the 1980 Mariel boatlift - thousands of patients from mental asylums from South American mental asylums making their way like zombies to the US border. And, as weirdly hilarious as it can get: his obsession with crowd size, which is as genuinely a comedy act worthy as that of Borat at a Khasakhstani porn star competition ranting about the size of his khram.

Any word on batteries, boats, windmills, and sharks?

Frank wrote on Jul 29^th, 2024 at 11:31am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 29th, 2024 at 10:21am: The Republicans and the Democrats currently both staunchly support Israel, so there is no room for Trump to hype pro-Palestine protests as a social unrest issue - hence his heavy focus on the southern border, and illegal immigration in general. Of course, given his narcissistic obsession with catastrophising every issue, Trump will continue to overplay his hand on this- like conflating the current border issue with the Mariel boatlift of 1980. Neither he nor Vance will risk touching on the root cause of the worst aspect of the southern border issue - Americans' obsession with cocaine. Fentanyl.  Child trafficking. Crime. Job losses. millions of illegals. Not cocaine alone. The US is not like it was in the 60s or 80s

We've been through all this countless times, old boy. The majority of fentanyl comes in through legal means - rednecks driving it in through San Ysidro.

Asylum seekers have a lower rate of offending to US citizens. Your crime problem is a load of old boots.

The US unemployment rate is 4.1% - lower than the long-term average of 5.6%. Not sure how many jobs are lost to illegals, but I'd say it's a pretty krappy job if it only pays cash and doesn't provide insurance. During covid, farmers were screaming out for the border to open up to get migrant labour back again, so in many jobs there's a labour shortage.

That leaves child trafficking, which I'm curious about. So, given you already know the above and you're just telling fibs, we'd like to know more about your kiddie trafficking problem.

In the words of your prophet, please explain?

Big Donger wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 1:24pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 29th, 2024 at 11:31am: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 29th, 2024 at 10:21am: The Republicans and the Democrats currently both staunchly support Israel, so there is no room for Trump to hype pro-Palestine protests as a social unrest issue - hence his heavy focus on the southern border, and illegal immigration in general. Of course, given his narcissistic obsession with catastrophising every issue, Trump will continue to overplay his hand on this- like conflating the current border issue with the Mariel boatlift of 1980. Neither he nor Vance will risk touching on the root cause of the worst aspect of the southern border issue - Americans' obsession with cocaine. Fentanyl.  Child trafficking. Crime. Job losses. millions of illegals. Not cocaine alone. The US is not like it was in the 60s or 80s We've been through all this countless times, old boy. The majority of fentanyl comes in through legal means - rednecks driving it in through San Ysidro. Asylum seekers have a lower rate of offending to US citizens. Your crime problem is a load of old boots. The US unemployment rate is 4.1% - lower than the long-term average of 5.6%. Not sure how many jobs are lost to illegals, but I'd say it's a pretty krappy job if it only pays cash and doesn't provide insurance. During covid, farmers were screaming out for the border to open up to get migrant labour back again, so in many jobs there's a labour shortage. That leaves child trafficking, which I'm curious about. So, given you already know the above and you're just telling fibs, we'd like to know more about your kiddie trafficking problem. In the words of your prophet, please explain?

Is he talking about this?

https://media.snopes.com/2021/05/mattgaetzvoteno.png

Ah.

While the old boy froths away over illegals, the investigation into Matt Gaetz continues.

What's the matter, dear boy? Cat got your tongue?

While many clutch their pearls or lose their bottle over Trump's rants, what they're not getting is that Trump's schtick is primarily a comedy stand-up act.

Trump made an oblique reference to this in his latest Minnesota speech.

He is effectively an amalgam of Borat and George Costanza.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 7:58pm:

While many clutch their pearls or lose their bottle over Trump's rants, what they're not getting is that Trump's schtick is primarily a comedy stand-up act. Trump made an oblique reference to this in his latest Minnesota speech. He is effectively an amalgam of Borat and George Costanza.

What about the raping and the 34 criminal charges?

Big Donger wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 6:35pm:

Ah. While the old boy froths away over illegals, the investigation into Matt Gaetz continues. What's the matter, dear boy? Cat got your tongue?

ONE Goetz versus 20 MILLION illegals.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 7:58pm:

While many clutch their pearls or lose their bottle over Trump's rants, what they're not getting is that Trump's schtick is primarily a comedy stand-up act. Trump made an oblique reference to this in his latest Minnesota speech. He is effectively an amalgam of Borat and George Costanza.

In his mind, I'd bet Trump is trying to channel the comedic charisma of Muhammed Ali during his lead-up interviews.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 1:24pm:

Frank wrote on Jul 29th, 2024 at 11:31am: MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 29th, 2024 at 10:21am: The Republicans and the Democrats currently both staunchly support Israel, so there is no room for Trump to hype pro-Palestine protests as a social unrest issue - hence his heavy focus on the southern border, and illegal immigration in general. Of course, given his narcissistic obsession with catastrophising every issue, Trump will continue to overplay his hand on this- like conflating the current border issue with the Mariel boatlift of 1980. Neither he nor Vance will risk touching on the root cause of the worst aspect of the southern border issue - Americans' obsession with cocaine. Fentanyl.  Child trafficking. Crime. Job losses. millions of illegals. Not cocaine alone. The US is not like it was in the 60s or 80s We've been through all this countless times, old boy. The majority of fentanyl comes in through legal means - rednecks driving it in through San Ysidro. Asylum seekers have a lower rate of offending to US citizens. Your crime problem is a load of old boots. The US unemployment rate is 4.1% - lower than the long-term average of 5.6%. Not sure how many jobs are lost to illegals, but I'd say it's a pretty krappy job if it only pays cash and doesn't provide insurance. During covid, farmers were screaming out for the border to open up to get migrant labour back again, so in many jobs there's a labour shortage. That leaves child trafficking, which I'm curious about. So, given you already know the above and you're just telling fibs, we'd like to know more about your kiddie trafficking problem. In the words of your prophet, please explain?

Less than half of them work.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/may/13/center-for-immigration-studies-just-46-of-new-immi/

Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it?

What's the matter, old boy, cat got your tongue?

Can't even be bothered Googling your Heritage Foundation's report on trafficking kiddies?

The keys remain at 8-5.

Harris is still tentatively predicted to win and is increasingly more likely to win by a landslide.

Trump's 20 million illegals story is, of course, total horseshit. There aren't even 20 million illegal immigrants estimated to be in the United States after an accumulation of them over decades.

He will not succeed in turning the 'no social unrest' key with the border issue - hence his claims that a Harris administration plans to let all illegal immigrants who commit capital crimes out of jail.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 8:45pm:

Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it?

He seems somewhat confused, again.

Says they're taking all the jobs, yet now claims they haven't got jobs.

Oh dear.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 8:45pm:

Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it? What's the matter, old boy, cat got your tongue? Can't even be bothered Googling your Heritage Foundation's report on trafficking kiddies?

Well, as even the dumbest, dimmest 12 year old would instantly realise, illegal immigrants are cheaper to employ than locals as you have to pay taxes and social s security etc for the latter, not th ed former. So a job for an illegal is no job for a local, who can then go on the dole.

Frank wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 4:50pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 30th, 2024 at 8:45pm: Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it? What's the matter, old boy, cat got your tongue? Can't even be bothered Googling your Heritage Foundation's report on trafficking kiddies? Well, as even the dumbest, dimmest 12 year old would instantly realise, illegal immigrants are cheaper to employ than locals as you have to pay taxes and social security etc for the latter, not the former. So a job for an illegal is no job for a local, who can then go on the dole.

But this is too hard for grinning pakis and creepy pervs.

Why?

Frank wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 4:50pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 30th, 2024 at 8:45pm: Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it? What's the matter, old boy, cat got your tongue? Can't even be bothered Googling your Heritage Foundation's report on trafficking kiddies? Well, as even the dumbest, dimmest 12 year old would instantly realise, illegal immigrants are cheaper to employ than locals as you have to pay taxes and social s security etc for the latter, not th ed former. So a job for an illegal is no job for a local, who can then go on the dole.

How many illegal immigrants currently working at Mar-a-Lago?

I'm curious.

Boiling down Lichtman's 13 keys - three major themes determine how Americans will vote in any given election:

1 The perceived unity, strength and integrity of the incumbent party,
2. The perceived strength of the US economy, and
3. The perceived strength and success of the US military.

A minor theme is the tendency to grant two terms to any party in power.

The jousting between candidates and media scuttlebutt is all just theatrics for public entertainment.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 3:39pm:

The keys remain at 8-5. Harris is still tentatively predicted to win and is increasingly more likely to win by a landslide. Trump's 20 million illegals story is, of course, total horseshit. There aren't even 20 million illegal immigrants estimated to be in the United States after an accumulation of them over decades. He will not succeed in turning the 'no social unrest' key with the border issue - hence his claims that a Harris administration plans to let all illegal immigrants who commit capital crimes out of jail.

Ee-gad, she plans to do that?

Well, two can play at that game, Meister. Mr Trump plans to let the Proud Boys and Jan 6 hostages out of jail on Day 1.

Fair's fair, no? Personally, I can't see what's wrong with a bit of social unrest. It works for the leftards, who just put a bulls eye on Mr Trump. I think we all know what happened next, Meister.

They all do it, no?

VENGEANCE !!!

Frank wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 4:50pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 30th, 2024 at 8:45pm: Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it? What's the matter, old boy, cat got your tongue? Can't even be bothered Googling your Heritage Foundation's report on trafficking kiddies? Well, as even the dumbest, dimmest 12 year old would instantly realise, illegal immigrants are cheaper to employ than locals as you have to pay taxes and social s security etc for the latter, not th ed former. So a job for an illegal is no job for a local, who can then go on the dole.

I see. So if the big fella gets rid of the illegals, that means the locals have to go get illegal jobs, saving state unemployment insurers a packet.

A win-win, no?

Still, I wonder if the dumbest, dimmest 12 year olds would be willing to work in jobs without health, personal injury or unemployment insurance. And I wonder if they know that workers employed in illegal jobs aren't even eligible for the dole.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_insurance_in_the_United_States

It does make one wonder, dear boy, but if I were you, I'd try to get my story straight. You want to stop illegal immigration to save all those poor, huddled masses being exploited by meanie illegal employers. Or you want to stop illegal immigration so the cheapskates can target locals instead.

Or, as an alternative, you could scrap all that and just get real. You don't care about working conditions or unemployment at all. You want to stop illegal immigration because they're tinted.

Up for it?

With Biden clearly using his last 3 months working towards holding key 11 (Major foreign or military success), the question about Democrats' electoral success is: will they win in a landslide, or will there also be a complete rout of the Republican party?

If Biden delivers on key 11, making the keys 9-4 in the Democrats' favour, or even pull off holding key 10 (No foreign or military failure), making it 10-3, they could win every state.

Whatever the outcome of keys 10 and 11, and beyond the near certainty that they will hold 8 of the keys, the Democrats still have a secret weapon working in their favour: Donald Trump himself.

Biden's recent major foreign successes:

El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world.

American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 8:20am:

Biden's recent major foreign successes: El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world. American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey.

Apparently, the prisoner exchange was the largest since the Cold War.

Lichtman has suggested that if this remains in the public mind, it will turn key-11 in favour of the Democrats, lifting the key count to 9-4.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 3:00pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2nd, 2024 at 8:20am: Biden's recent major foreign successes: El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world. American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey. Apparently, the prisoner exchange was the largest since the Cold War. Lichtman has suggested that if this remains in the public mind, it will turn key-11 in favour of the Democrats, lifting the key count to 9-4.

Yep.

Some great work by Biden.

5 and 6 are in trouble:

YouGov Poll: 63% Say Economy Is Going Badly Under Biden-Harris Admin

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 3:00pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2nd, 2024 at 8:20am: Biden's recent major foreign successes: El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world. American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey. Apparently, the prisoner exchange was the largest since the Cold War. Lichtman has suggested that if this remains in the public mind, it will turn key-11 in favour of the Democrats, lifting the key count to 9-4.

Not a major foreign policy success. Barely registered, now forgotten. Iran attacking Israel is far, far bigger an issue and a massive foreign policy failure.

It pays to understand a golden rule of Lichtman's keys: Polls do not turn keys except in one instance: Key 4 - the 'No Third Party' key.

Given there is no other way to determine the threat to the incumbent party by a third party except after an election, polls are the only tool to assess any possible threat.

Lichtman channels Eisenhower's Industrial-Military - (Congressional) Complex speech with his Pollster-Media-Political 'Iron Triangle'.

Pollsters are paid enormously well during an election cycle so they have a vested financial interest in the people's fixation on them for the duration of an election process. The media is also similarly invested.

Politicians rely on polls and the media to hone their message or to influence their perceived political efficacy, and so they tend to encourage popular fixation on polls.

Determining whether or not the US economy is in recession is not determined by polls, it is determined by the National Board of Economic Research (NBER).

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 7^th, 2024 at 1:12pm:

It pays to understand a golden rule of Lichtman's keys: Polls do not turn keys except in one instance: Key 4 - the 'No Third Party' key. Given there is no other way to determine the threat to the incumbent party by a third party except after an election, polls are the only tool to assess any possible threat. Lichtman channels Eisenhower's Industrial-Military - (Congressional) Complex speech with his Pollster-Media-Political 'Iron Triangle'. Pollsters are paid enormously well during an election cycle so they have a vested financial interest in the people's fixation on them for the duration of an election process. The media is also similarly invested. Politicians rely on polls and the media to hone their message or to influence their perceived political efficacy, and so they tend to encourage popular fixation on polls.

The long and the short of it: the economy is not a positive for Kackela the Mamela.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:07pm:

Determining whether or not the US economy is in recession is not determined by polls, it is determined by the National Board of Economic Research (NBER).

No - it's determined by how people see it and live it, regardless of what the NBER or the Ministry of Truth say.

greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 4:22pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2nd, 2024 at 3:00pm: MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2nd, 2024 at 8:20am: Biden's recent major foreign successes: El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world. American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey. Apparently, the prisoner exchange was the largest since the Cold War. Lichtman has suggested that if this remains in the public mind, it will turn key-11 in favour of the Democrats, lifting the key count to 9-4. Yep. Some great work by Biden.

crap

the US gave back murderers , spies and a guy who used fake credit cards to rip off 160 million (repatriated to russia)

russia gave back a couple of journalists

biden has been a foreign policy failure

got america into 2 wars

gave iran money and removed sanctions


trump , on the other hand, killed sulimani and no wars started on his watch

and harris will be a warmonger as well, no doubt, being a paid for democrat  ::) ::)

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:07pm:

Determining whether or not the US economy is in recession is not determined by polls, it is determined by the National Board of Economic Research (NBER).

Exactly.

Polls and emotions aren't a consideration when it comes to the keys.

When does the professor give his prediction, by the way?