Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2024 at 12:50pm:

“It's not a question of reefs dying or reefs disappearing, it's reef ecosystems transforming into a new configuration,” says marine biologist Terry Hughes, from James Cook University in Townsville, Australia.

This is the very same Terry Hughes who declared great patches of it "dead".

"Two-thirds of the corals in the northern part of the Great Barrier Reef have died in the reef’s worst-ever bleaching event, according to our latest underwater surveys."

Terry Hughes

Distinguished Professor, James Cook University, James Cook University

https://theconversation.com/how-much-coral-has-died-in-the-great-barrier-reefs-worst-bleaching-event-69494

Now apparently it has only changed symbionts. Something that is entirely natural; unless you really believe Terry Hughes. ::)

Poor JM has been fooled more than once by Terry Hughes. It reminds me of a quote... something about being fooled once. ;)

Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters.

JM likes to show the aperture for CO2 in his climate function. ;)

Now if CO2 is increasing, why is OLWR (Outgoing Long Wave Radiation) going up? Because according to the theory CO2 traps the OLWR and should therefore reduce the amount of OLWR.

https://i.postimg.cc/PrfJY0jT/ceres-olr-copy-topaz.png

Not seeing it. ::)

Monk is a conman and grifter.
He sells hair tonic down at his local backwater Tasmanian markets. So far, he still has bumfluff for a beard.

OLWR -

Outgoing Longwave Radiation   -   Climate Model

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/1/10/1520-0442_1988_001_0998_aeolrc_2_0_co_2.xml

Poor JM -


Jovial Monk wrote on May 14^th, 2024 at 6:58pm:

For the other easily duped idiot posting in “Environment” lees would do well to read: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/10/1539

From his paper -

" The OLR has been rising since 1985, and correlates well with the rising global temperature. An observational estimate of the derivative of the OLR with respect to temperature of 2.93 +/− 0.3 W/m2K is obtained. "

So now CO2 doesn't trap OLR. It is the clouds. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course JM doesn't say how it both traps and increases OLWR.

And it even includes the precise graphic. ;)

"This substantial warm bias is identified at global scales over land (Allan et al., 2022) and may be linked to a positive energy imbalance of about 1 W·m−2 in the model's pre-industrial spin-up experiment and underestimation of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the pre-industrial control experiment compared to observations (Tatebe et al., 2019).

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.8169

Warm biases? Underestimation of OLR pre-industrial? But the science is settled. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

"For this figure I’ve picked off a few model simulations from the CMIP5 archive (just one realization per model), computed annual means and then used a 7 yr triangular smoother to knock down ENSO noise, and plotted the global mean short and long wave TOA fluxes as perturbations from the start of this smoothed series. The longwave (L) and shortwave (S) perturbations are both considered positive when directed into the system, so N = L +S is the net heating.  The only external forcing agent that is changing here is CO2, which (in isolation from the effects of the changing climate on the radiative fluxes) acts to heat the system by decreasing the outgoing longwave radiation (increasing L). But in most of these models, L is actually decreasing over time, cooling the atmosphere-ocean system.  It  is an increase in the net incoming shortwave (S) that appears to be heating the system —  in all but one case.  This qualitative result is common in GCMs.  I have encountered several confusing discussions of this behavior recently, motivating this post."

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/blog_held/46-how-can-outgoing-longwave-increase-as-co2-increases/

Or another one -

"The greenhouse effect is well-established. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, reduce the amount of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to space; thus, energy accumulates in the climate system, and the planet warms."

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1412190111

What about all the cities and the activity and lights that light up the night-side like fires.
Is the warming being affected or increased by the night side of the planet, when it should be the cooling side?

Jovial Monk wrote on May 30^th, 2024 at 4:14pm:

Nice warm day? Quote: New Delhi recorded its highest temperature ever measured on Wednesday — 126 degrees Fahrenheit, or 52.3 degrees Celsius — Ouch! [quote]In New Delhi, where walking out of the house felt like walking into an oven, officials feared that the electricity grid was being overwhelmed and that the city’s water supply might need rationing. The past 12 months have been the planet’s hottest ever recorded, and cities like Miami are experiencing extreme heat even before the arrival of summer. Scientists said this week that the average person on Earth had experienced 26 more days of abnormally high temperatures in the past year than would have been the case without human-induced climate change.

India is not alone. Note that there is no El Nino boosting temperatures. This is AGW.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/world/asia/india-delhi-hottest-day-ever.html

[/quote]

So there is no such thing as UHI? ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/delhi-population

Or this?

"Record 52.9 degrees Celsius in Delhi's Mungeshpur was 'error in sensor': IMD"

https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/national/heat-wave-intensifies-in-north-central-india-record-529-degrees-celsius-in-delhis-mungeshpur-was-error-in-sensor-imd

or this?

"The Safdarjung weather observatory, which serves as the marker for the entire city, registered a maximum temperature of 46.8 degree Celsius on Wednesday, the highest in 80 years. It was six degrees higher than the normal expected at this time of the year, and the highest that the station has recorded since 1944. But it was substantially lower than the temperature at Mungeshpur, located on the northern outskirts of Delhi, bordering Haryana."

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/at-52-3-degrees-celsius-delhi-records-highest-ever-temperature-9359221/

or this? -

"Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade, new study shows "

https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074

And then -


Jovial Monk wrote on May 30^th, 2024 at 4:51pm:

He then mentions some other readings, higher than the one I mentioned, one of which was wrong, apparently. What relevance this foofaraw has to anything I don’t know.

The 52.3C as reported by Aljazeer was at Mungeshpur, so perhaps the NY times was wrong. ;)

"People in northern India are struggling with an unrelenting, weeks-long heatwave, with temperature in India’s capital soaring to a national record-high of 52.3 degrees Celsius (126.1 Fahrenheit), the government’s weather bureau said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heatwave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the New Delhi suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, smashing the previous national record in the desert of Rajasthan by more than one degree Celsius."

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/5/29/photos-north-india-swelters-as-new-delhi-records-highest-ever-temperature-of-49-9c


Never let a good crisis go to waste. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

And the IMD is still blaming the AWS. ;)

So poor JM doesn't understand about faulty AWS. Apparently it means it is ok at 52.3 but not ok at 52.9. ;)

"Union Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju addressed the anomaly in a post on X, stating that the recorded temperature of 52.3 degrees Celsius in Delhi is "very unlikely" and is not yet official. He indicated that senior IMD officials are verifying the data.

"It is not official yet. Temperature of 52.3 °C in Delhi is very unlikely. Our senior officials in IMD have been asked to verify the news report. The official position will be stated soon," Kiren Rijiju said in the post."

https://www.indiatvnews.com/delhi/imd-clarifies-record-52-degrees-celsius-delhi-weather-update-mungeshpur-as-sensor-error-kiren-rijiju-maximum-temperature-2024-05-29-934107

But good enough for JM's purposes. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 3^rd, 2024 at 7:53am:

More UHI  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Quote: Scott Duncan@ScottDuncanWX·13h Record heatwave unfolding in the Middle East. Iraq 🇮🇶 records its first 50°C (122°F) in the month of May and Kuwait 🇰🇼 breaks its May national record with 50.6°C (123°F).

So let's see -

Iraq (actually Basra) supposedly recorded 50C in May. On May 31. Actually not.

31 May made 49C.

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/iraq/basra/historic

Past two weeks. Oh dear. ::)

Poor JM. He can't even verify the blogs he uses. ;D ;D ;D ;D

They said it, it must be true. ;)

Monk is a drunk who plays 'spin the bottle' with himself when making predictions.  ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 14^th, 2024 at 2:08am:

Models doing well predicting temperatures: Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h HOW GOOD ARE THE CLIMATE MODELS? In blue is the average of 40 of the top climate models. The lighter shading shows the range of results. Here is plotted the result for July 2023 - the models seem to be underestimating the surface temperature but its well within the uncertainties.

So if you only pick the top 40 all's good. Until maybe next year and we will have another Top 40. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course we can't check the Top 40 is sacrosanct and cannot be named. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 18^th, 2024 at 12:38pm:

Another thing that will happen as AGW heats the globe: more hail falls and bigger hailstones.

Well the BBC says "maybe".

"Rising global temperatures might be causing hailstorms to become more violent, with larger chunks of ice and more intense downpours"

...

"As the planet continues to warm, areas where hailstorms are favoured are likely to shift," says Brimelow. "An area now where sufficient moisture is a limiting factor may become more moist and consequently, hailstorm frequency may increase."

"A combination of observations of changes already taking place and climate modelling has led researchers to conclude that hailstorms will become more frequent in Australia and Europe, but there will be a decrease in East Asia and North America. But they also found that hailstorms will become generally more intense."


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220314-how-big-can-hailstones-grow

From the linked study -

"Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070)."

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321.epdf?sharing_token=GY5rAiZioi7yjDIIa8KovNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MQIvlxB_BBeg8RsbqAJFOekWYPIS7qDOULUz8eSzKaDATBO0Ii5NUvpSivWQL0XqbMFhjGitbBleO2_dNz7_IwmHwOCQjgrtQ6uDAbplPprTaqmQ56F6-9OZxCZQxJ3YedHwNyhPwuuph4NxzllaRL5afKnLy-4-EDFDH_4ZTbjhMl_ELRPuJS7JvsuWfR4C03_TIjDw7bnGZp2BQ3PHv2QSyz_LqZpfz7-mE-B_JqwQ%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.bbc.com

direct -

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321

Ah "Novel" modelling. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk lives too close to Antarctica.
he lives in the roaring 40s -  (he is at -43 degrees latitude )-
the vast circumpolar currents and winds that encircle the world in the Southern ocean.
Nowhere else in the world comes close to the harsh climate of the roaring 40s.
He lives there with a tropical dog called Socks.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 18^th, 2024 at 4:48pm:

lees has a sneer at “models” but that is meaningless.

Poor JM. The models have not been calibrated, verified or validated. "but they are good, believe me" ;D ;D ;D ;D

So after saying stuff about how useless I was he now thanks me. ;)


"Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #35 - Today at 4:02pm Quote
Quote:
The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change


Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.


https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321


BBC article—worth reading in full:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220314-how-big-can-hailstones-grow

Thanks to lees for finding these interesting article supporting my post on hail."

But he still agrees with the "novel modelling approach". ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 3:06pm:

We are starting to see “atmospheric rivers” and those result in the dumping of HUGE amounts of rain—a warming planet with warming oceans sees more evaporation followed inevitably by precipitation.

"atmospheric river, any long, narrow, and concentrated horizontal corridor of moisture in Earth’s troposphere. Such formations transport vast amounts of water vapor—at flow rates more than double that of the Amazon River—and heat from tropical regions near the Equator toward the middle and higher latitudes. They serve as the primary source of horizontal water transport in the midlatitudes, providing more than half of the precipitation to coastal areas in parts of Europe, North America, South America, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia and facilitating the movement of more than 90 percent of the world’s moisture from the tropics to the poles. Most atmospheric rivers can be found in the North Pacific, Atlantic, southeastern Pacific, and South Atlantic oceans away from the tropics, and they produce moderate amounts of rain and snow. However, some atmospheric rivers are responsible for extreme precipitation and flooding events that may last up to several days in some regions. An average of four to five atmospheric rivers are active in Earth’s atmosphere at any given time."

https://www.britannica.com/science/atmospheric-river

But somehow we are just starting to see them. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

atmospheric rivers?

Climate alarmist talk.

How about heavy rain.  ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 4:21pm:

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/ranking-atmospheric-rivers-new-study-finds-world-o...

"A new study using NASA data shows that a recently developed rating system can provide a consistent global benchmark for tracking these “rivers in the sky.” "

...

"In the new study, scientists built a database of global atmospheric river events from 1980 to 2020, using a computer algorithm to automatically identify tens of thousands of the events in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), a NASA re-analysis of historical atmospheric observations."

So they re-analysed weather, with a model, and found, surprise, surprise, it is worse than we thought. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 4:24pm:

Maybe that is why the El Nino last summer was such a wet, cool El Nino?

And nothing to do with huge amounts of water projected by a certain volcano. What goes up, must come down. ;)

Thanks Lee -

Monk doesn't know.    ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 30^th, 2024 at 10:07am:

Jesus, just as AGW is starting to kick our arses, the US does something really really stupid: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine

What poor JM doesn't understand it only removes the power of unelected bureaucrats the power to "interpret" legislation. It can still be legislated. Power that should never have been given to bureaucrats. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 30^th, 2024 at 8:19pm:

Quote: Abstract The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), yet estimates of air-sea CO2 flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO2 gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO2 gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO2 (Pco2)–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi4355

Poor JM - Models all the way down. Models are NOT data. ;)

Lack of real science posts there backed by links etc to authoritative websites (Nature etc journals, ABC, BBC, NASA/NOAA/Copernicus etc etc) means OzPol is sinking in the SEO rankings so people looking for a discussion board see other boards long before OzPol pops up in the listings on page 13 or so.

THAT is why OzPol is headed down the gurgler—an idiot is in charge of an important MRB.[/quote]

Now the BBC and ABC are authoritative. They only repeat, which doesn't make them authorities on anything. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 4:48pm:

“Certainly a pretty anomalous event that we’re expecting here, which looks like it will continue through at least midweek,” Asherman said.

Now even anomalous events are proof of AGW. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Bobby. wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2024 at 1:21pm:

Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters.

Says the fan of Humpty!!!!

Aussie wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:23pm:

Bobby. wrote on Apr 23rd, 2024 at 1:21pm: Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters. Says the fan of Humpty!!!!

Have you got a problem Aussie?

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 12:20pm:

Hurricane Beryl became a Cat 5 storm 2 weeks earlier than any other Cat 5 on record. Now in the southern US:

As Joe Bastardi wrote in December - If the water temperature in July is similar to August's water temperature don't be surprised by an early Cat 5.

As noted Beryl arrived as a Cat 1, not a Cat 5. It rapidly degraded to a tropical storm. And we have better tracking now than in the past. ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 24^th, 2024 at 2:48pm:

The little puke ruining Environment and OzPol shows his abysmal ignorance. Did not know about global average temperature. What a fucking clown!

Poor JM. Doesn't know that Copernicus uses models and not real world temperatures. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course, he also doesn't know about intrinsic properties. ;)

And now JM thinks a baby scarcity is an environmental problem, not economic or anything else.

You would think fewer babies might actually be good for the environment. Less disposable nappies, less land fill. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 7:18am:

I believe it was fear of AGW. World is warming, evidence exists that for the last 10 years the warming has accelerated.

Of course the "accelerated warming" is at the poles. But the Arctic still refuses to enter Al Gore's death spiral, and still exists. ;)

And SST's -


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 5:27pm:

Sea temperatures not cooling either: Quote: Zack Labe @ZLabe Despite El Niño fading, the mean global sea surface temperature averaged over the last three months was the highest on record relative to any other April to June period... Data from @NOAA ERSSTv5: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html

The funny thing about the SSt's. -

"Monthly values for 1854/01- 2024/06"

They don't really know average SST's accurately back then.

More -


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2024 at 7:46am:

Here we show that the January–March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum.

So back to 1900 they use Reynolds ESTIMATED SST's. Estimations are not science, they are best guesses and  can never be data. And then - "The Coral Sea and GBR have experienced a strong warming trend since 1900 (Fig. 1f). January–March SSTAs averaged over the GBR are strongly correlated (ρ = 0.84, P ≪ 0.01) with those in the broader Coral Sea (Fig. 1f), including when the long-term warming trend is removed from both time series (ρ = 0.69, P < 0.01; Supplementary Fig. 4). "

That is before the IPCC say CO2 had any effect. So natural warming started after the LIA. Woopee doo. ::)

And also "The January–March mean SSTs averaged over the five mass bleaching years during the period 2016–2024 are 0.77 °C higher than the 1961–90 January–March averages in both the Coral Sea and the GBR."4

So corals with over 400 million years of climate cycles are sensitive to that small change. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

And then he talks about CMIP6 - you know those models that are running way too hot. ;)

When Monk farts in his bed, he thinks its Global Warming in his dreams.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 10^th, 2024 at 2:18pm:

Lees uses WUWT or NoTricksZone to get his fix of AGW denial. Since AGW is real and since the globe SHOULD be cooling from natural forcings poor lees doesn’t really get far.

That's his level of debate. Won't look at the actual papers, just relies on blogs like DeSMOG BLOG. No criticism of anything he posts on his shite site, all's good. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 10^th, 2024 at 3:01pm:

Do NOT reply lees, you are BANNED from here, remember?

Sorry but I have replied, just not in your nonsense, anti-science, model-led site. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

And more -


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 10^th, 2024 at 3:01pm:

(Locked the thread to prevent the idiot lees from replying—and copping a forum–wide ban. A little ThankYou would have been nice but was beyond lees.)

He has such delusions of competence. ;D ;D ;D ;D

And when did he add the modification?

Last Edit: Today at 1:31pm by Jovial Monk »

Well after I wrote. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 11^th, 2024 at 3:33pm:

Temperatures are increasing in line with predictions from the models.

Except in the Antarctic. So AGW is not Global. ;)

""Record cold temperatures were observed in our Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) network as well as other locations around the region," said Matthew A. Lazzara of the Antarctic Meteorological Research and Data Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison).

"These phases were marked by new record low temperatures recorded at both staffed and automatic weather stations, spanning East Antarctica, the Ross Ice Shelf, and West Antarctica to the Antarctic Peninsula."

"The highest point, Kunlun Station, recorded its lowest temperature ever observed at -79.4°C, which was about 5°C lower than the monthly average," added Prof. Minghu Ding from State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. "Interestingly, at the same time, record-breaking high temperatures were occurring in South America, which is relatively close to Antarctica." "

https://phys.org/news/2024-06-antarctic-cold-shatter-global-late.html

So if High Temperatures are symptoms of AGW is the reverse true? Or are high temperatures proof of AGW, whilst cold temperatures are merely weather? ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 12^th, 2024 at 8:31am:

Before recent heating—and this was discussed but the idiot has forgotten it I guess—it was said that because of the 280ppm CO2 in the air Earth had an average temperature of +15°C instead of the -18°C it would have without any GHGs.

So according to NOAA "Prior to the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels were consistently around 280 ppm for almost 6,000 years of human civilization."

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-than-pre-industrial-levels




So +15°C for 6,000 years. So if CO2 were the driver of climate change, wouldn't that mean temperatures were stable? But that would mean the Minoan, Roman and MWP were figments of the imagination. When humanity soared. When they were mining in the Alsps, only now being revealed. When elephants crossed the Alps.

Or of course it was natural, and that means it could be some or all natural. ;)


Of course with HadCRuT they can tell the global temperature back to 1850 to 7 decimal places. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem5/data/CRUTEM.5.0.2.0/diagnostics/CRUTEM.5.0.2.0.summary_series.global.monthly.csv

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 13^th, 2024 at 5:12pm:

How close are we to tipping points? —HM can the oceans warm before coral reefs die world wide? Lots of people rely on reefs for food, income, employment. —ditto with land ice sheets? The New York Times considers: Quote: Right now, every moment of every day, we humans are reconfiguring Earth’s climate bit by bit. Hotter summers and wetter storms. Higher seas and fiercer wildfires. The steady, upward turn of the dial on a host of threats to our homes, our societies and the environment around us.

Seeing as the IPCC sees no tipping points. No increase in global rainfall, Higher seas? They have been rising for 2,000 years.

Fiercer wildfires? What else do you expect when you don't reduce fuel loads? The total are burnt is actually less.

But for what the IPCC Physical Science Basis actually says see page 90 of chapter 12 with the explanations at the bottom. There is NO CLIMATE CRISIS. Tipping points would infer there is.

So the highest SST's in 400 years for the GBR, as fare back as they could go. And they KNOW ocean temperatures back that far?

400 years ago? The LIA? Ocean temperatures are warmer than the LIA? Be still my beating heart.

https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-024-07672-x/MediaObjects/41586_2024_7672_Fig2_HTML.png

Strangely the GBR historical shows similar temperatures to current, and all based on estimations.

"Highest ocean heat in four centuries places Great Barrier Reef in danger"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07672-x#Sec3

UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 23^rd, 2024 at 12:17pm:

Don't be overly pedantic, Monk. Weather forecasts change daily. Sometimes weather forecasts change hourly. Climate forecasts change within the month. The Bureau makes concessions that variations in weather patterns happen. So, they update their climate models every 2 weeks. You can read about it on their website. UnSubRocky's weather predictions: November should see above-average rainfall. December onwards will be a heavy rainfall season where I live.

Monk is very pedantic - he only sees the world from his tiny peanut brain.
He needs to stop stealing my environment topics.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 8:27pm:

Here we use 0.1° global ocean model simulations to explore whether drift connections exist between more northern, temperate landmasses and the Antarctic coastline.

Models all the way down. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 7:26am:

A shocking new study has made startling revelations about the rise in global temperatures. A team of scientists analysed Pacific Ocean sediments and found that the world can witness up to 14 degrees rise in temperatures, far more than what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted.

From the underlying paper - which didn't even get a guernsey -

https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs43247-024-01531-3/MediaObjects/43247_2024_1531_Fig2_HTML.png

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01531-3#Sec2

So precisely ONE model predicted 25C rise.  Two models post-1975 show a 1.3C rise and historical show a 5C rise. And they use CMIP6/PMIP4. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Hi lee -

25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 1:52pm:

As I knew would happen lees has “refuted” the above paper. No doubt there were lots of  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin and some  Wink among the crap lees would have posted.

He can't even critique what was posted. Just too funny. ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 13^th, 2024 at 9:03pm:

PubPeer comments: Quote: One possibility is that what the analysis has found is a correlation between temperature and short-term variations in atmospheric CO2.

I hate to tell you JM, possibilities are NOT refutation. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Now "lee" is doing half-court three-pointers.

Bobby. wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 3:03pm:

Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Monk missed a decimal point.

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:48pm:

Bobby. wrote on Aug 30th, 2024 at 3:03pm: Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.   ::) Monk missed a decimal point.

Yet he reckons he's a scientist.    ::)

Bobby. wrote on Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:58pm:

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 14th, 2024 at 3:48pm: Bobby. wrote on Aug 30th, 2024 at 3:03pm: Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.   ::) Monk missed a decimal point. Yet he reckons he's a scientist.    ::)

He knows stuff that you miss. And you guys know stuff that he misses.

Monk has referenced an article which contains a falsehood:

https://www.wionews.com/science/earth-can-get-hotter-by-25-degrees-shocking-new-climate-study-predicts-753877


Quote:

Earth can get hotter by 25 degrees, shocking new climate study predicts New ZealandEdited By: Anamica SinghUpdated: Aug 28, 2024, 09:39 AM IST

The actual paper is here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9

It says:


Quote:

Defining the relationship between the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature is essential for understanding present environmental changes and modelling future climate trends. Geologic data can provide critical context, as well as possible analo gues, for our future. For example, as compared to today’s global annual temperatures of 14.5°C1, the middle Miocene (ca. 15 million years ago; Ma)was 18.4°C2–4, equivalent to that predicted for the year 2100 using the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario5,6. Thus, studying the past 15 million years (Myr) may provide a series of climate analogues relevant for possible near-future climates.

The actual rise is 4 degrees.

I did a search on the .pdf and there is nothing to back up the claim that
"Earth can get hotter by 25 degrees"


There is another site that also runs with the false story:
https://scitechdaily.com/earths-temperature-could-increase-by-25-degrees-startling-new-research-reveals-that-co2-has-more-impact-than-previously-thought/


Quote:

Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees: Startling New Research Reveals That CO2 Has More Impact Than Previously Thought By Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchAugust 27, 2024

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2024 at 6:23am:

In the Abstract: Quote: we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively.

Note: Nowhere do they say that these modelled sensitivities are additive. Indeed how could they when the CO2 is modelled in both.   Quite apart from which "13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively" would mean 21.1 °C, not 25 °C per doubling.

And...

"For example, as compared to today’s global annual temperatures of 14.5 °C1, the middle Miocene (ca. 15 million years ago; Ma) was 18.4 °C2,3,4, equivalent to that predicted for the year 2100 using the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario5,6. "

RCP8.5? Oh noes. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Has anyone ever read "Chaos Theory"? JM subscribes to the plausibility of 'absolute chaos' in relation to carbon levels doubling in the near future. He is simply wrong.

Without control, chaos implodes.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 18^th, 2024 at 7:11am:

Re: Record flooding in Europe https://x.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1835397563396096240

Except Scott Duncan doesn't describe the floods as "Records".

Flooding disaster unfolding right now in Central Europe."

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 20^th, 2024 at 10:06am:

The danger of microplastics is real and increasing.

from The Conversation -

"The scientific evidence is now more than sufficient: collective global action is urgently needed to tackle microplastics – and the problem has never been more pressing."

...

"More data is needed on microplastics in human foods such as land-animal products, cereals, grains, fruits, vegetables, beverages, spices, and oils and fats.

The concentrations of microplastics in foods vary widely – which means exposure levels in humans around the world also varies. However, some estimates, such as humans ingesting a credit card’s worth of plastic every week, are gross overstatements. "

It means send more money. ;)

Not bad, lee.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 27^th, 2024 at 9:02pm:

Helene’s Cat 4 landfall gives the U.S. a record eight Cat 4 or Cat 5 Atlantic hurricane landfalls in the past eight years (2017-2024), seven of them being continental U.S. landfalls. That’s as many Cat 4 and 5 landfalls as occurred in the prior 57 years.

And? ::)


Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 27^th, 2024 at 9:02pm:

Despite numbers of hurricanes being less than predicted does not mean that hurricane numbers are decreasing:

Actually the prediction was that they would be more intense.

"There’s now evidence that the unnatural effects of human-caused global warming are already making hurricanes stronger and more destructive."

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/

And they didn't have named storms before 1950. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2024 at 1:59pm:

Deaths, damage from Helene: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/27/weather/hurricane-helene-florida Not 4" but 4' of flooding.

Now flooding has a lot to do with runoff. Runoff is impacted by poor drainage. And subsidence. But not Climate. ::)

Ft Myers and Naples have subsidence problems.

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 10^th, 2024 at 12:00am:

Quote: 'An existential threat affecting billions' Three-quarters of Earth's land became permanently drier in last 3 decades Climate change is causing unprecedented drying across the Earth — and five billion people could be affected by 2100, a new UN report has warned. Climate change has made three-quarters of the Earth's land permanently drier in the last three decades, a landmark United Nations (UN) report has warned. 77.6% of Earth's land has become drier in the last three decades compared to the 30 years prior, with drylands expanding by an area larger than India to cover 40.6% of the land on Earth, except for Antarctica. And the findings, released in a new report by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification ((UNCCD), warn that if the trend continues, up to five billion people could live in drylands by the century's end — causing soils to deplete, water resources to dwindle, and vital ecosystems to collapse. "For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe," Ibrahim Thiaw, the UNCCD executive secretary, said in a statement. "Droughts end. When an area's climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth." https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/an-existential-threat-affecting-billions-three-quarters-of-earths-land-became-permanently-drier-in-last-three-decades Related: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/precipitation-the-source-of-all-fresh-water-can-no-longer-be-relied-upon-global-water-cycle-pushed-out-of-balance-for-1st-time-in-human-history Maybe I could have posted this in Environment but why change a trend of discussing anything but the environment there? Besides which the mentally deficient Mod there has me banned on some bullshit reason.

So let's have a look. By the UN, not scientists.

Ibrahim Thiaw, the UNCCD executive secretary - So where did he get his "data"? "n high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia."

Oh dear.

Barron Orr - offers no proof of his claims.

The second link has ONE hit fro desertification, but curiously offers no link to a study.

https://watercommission.org/

Poor JM the fact free zone. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 18^th, 2024 at 7:23pm:

Another post that could have been made in the [NotThe]Environment board BUT the little puke has me banned for a bullshit reason. Quote: Farming has always been gambling with dirt – but the odds are getting longer Rainfall patterns are changing, crops are ripening earlier and the normal rhythms of farming have fallen off – exactly as climate scientists warned The BoM/CSIRO State of the Climate 2024 Report echoes this. Southern Australis is drying, northern Australia is getting wetter. And this year is the hottest year on record. [quote]In the last 30 years though, summer has meant harvest and the battle to get the crop off in a reasonable state for the best possible price. It has meant never knowing whether the wheat would be in the bin before Christmas Day. It used to be a fairly good rule of thumb that the canola was ready in the last week of November and the wheat was ready to strip in the first week of December. Life is not without hurdles and ours always include summer storms, machinery breakdowns and labour challenges, but those dates were fairly constant. Over the years, the crops have ripened faster. This year, the canola was early and even the wheat was ready in November. That early start was interrupted by some of the biggest rainfalls of 2024, close to 110mm or more than four inches in the old money falling in a week.

The lower the rainfall is in a region the more irregular rainfall becomes—longer dry stretches, fiercer downpours. I learned this in third year high school, guess the little puke ruining Environment dropped out before learning that, not that he ever learned much.


Quote:

I had pegged 2024 as a dry year but, after adding up the rainfall, it turns out the annual fall was pretty close to the average for this district. It just fell in summer more than winter and in greater extremes, a bit like climate scientists had predicted.

Wheat, canola etc are not grown in summer.

"Key statistics

    369 million hectares of agricultural land, down 5% from 2020-21
    36 million tonnes of wheat produced, up 14%
    7 million tonnes of canola production, up 43%
    70 million sheep and lambs on farms at 30 June 2022, up 3%
    22 million beef cattle at 30 June 2022, up 1%

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/agriculture/agricultural-commodities-australia/latest-release


Quote:

I don’t mean to be glib but this year has been mostly hotter and wetter except where it has been drier, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. We started with an El Niño declared from September 2023 which caused a stampede of stock headed for the saleyards at a lower price as the summer approached. Prepare for drought, they cried. I was one of them. There is nothing worse than feeding animals through a drought. And certainly south-western Victoria is in trouble with drought, as is South Australia. Elsewhere, it rained. And rained. There were floods throughout the country, including in parts of Western Australia which received half a year’s rainfall in 24 hours. I had to laugh at the rather guarded wisdom from Seth Westra, a professor of hydrology and climate risk at the University of Adelaide. “If you follow the advice, on average, you’ll probably be ahead,” he told the Rural Network in January. “But there’ll be times when you’re not. That’s where trying to hedge against different eventualities is really the way to manage.”

Heads I win, tails you lose.


Quote:

The dry weather amped up the protein in crops like wheat, enough to make the most sluggish sourdough bloom. Apparently, there was a silver lining on those dry skies. Higher protein wheat means a high price for the farmer. Then, late in our harvest, that aforementioned rain fell. A wet crop cannot be harvested until it dries out. It also often loses quality, and therefore price premium, fast. Modern cropping requires big investments in seed, fertiliser, sprays and labour. Those costs have been rising as farmers have pushed for greater production, to boost incomes and stay ahead of the climate change.

That big investment is why ruzzians will be hungry next year.

[quote]Throwing a high investment at raising a food crop becomes an even riskier venture in an ever-more unpredictable climate. If you win the bet, you can win big. If you lose, not only do you forgo a potential income, but you have lost the money already spent.

While more than half of Australia’s landmass is managed by farmers, most of that is used for grazing because much of the country is not suitable for cropping. Only one-fifth of Australian farms are classified as broadacre cropping farms. At the same time, there is rising demand for protein around the world.

Though the total number of farm businesses has been falling across all enterprises over the longer term, it is no surprise that the number of specialist beef producers increased in all states except South Australia and the Northern Territory.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/17/farming-has-always-been-gambling-with-dirt-but-the-odds-are-getting-longer

So the Guardian can't do simple research. Who knew? That's what comes of not going to data.

Poor JM the Guardian’s true friend. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course longer growing seasons are better than shorter growing seasons, but JM won't have a bar of that.

So tell us about the shorter growing seasons during the LIA, JM. ;)

lee wrote on Dec 19^th, 2024 at 12:24pm:

Of course longer growing seasons are better than shorter growing seasons, but JM won't have a bar of that. So tell us about the shorter growing seasons during the LIA, JM. ;)

Monk can't post here - he's banned:

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1612043899/15#15

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2024 at 9:29am:

Seems lees had to comment on the above. Bit OCD but that is lees. He should get psych help.

Poor JM, just can't seem to get the idea of refutation, rather than drive-by's.

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 26^th, 2024 at 4:25pm:

Record high heat for two years and we get a bushfire. Amazing thing is only one bushfire happening now. AGW deniers share responsibility for trying to stop action against AGW.

Wow. Record high heat for two years? Just how much is this record worth ? According to UAH the warmest was August 2024, with the anomaly +1.75C above 1979. But it is the "hot" this December wot dunnit. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

"The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 23 months (record highs are in red). Note the tropics have cooled by 0.72 deg. C in the last 8 months, consistent with the onset of La Nina conditions."
YEAR      MO      GLOBE      NHEM.      SHEM.      TROPIC      USA48      ARCTIC      AUST
2023      Jan      -0.06      +0.07      -0.19        -0.41          +0.14      -0.10        -0.45
2023      Feb      +0.07      +0.13      +0.01      -0.13       +0.64      -0.26      +0.11
2023      Mar      +0.18      +0.22      +0.14      -0.17      -1.36      +0.15      +0.58
2023      Apr      +0.12      +0.04      +0.20      -0.09      -0.40      +0.47      +0.41
2023      May      +0.28      +0.16      +0.41      +0.32      +0.37      +0.52      +0.10
2023      June      +0.30      +0.33      +0.28      +0.51      -0.55      +0.29      +0.20
2023      July      +0.56      +0.59      +0.54      +0.83      +0.28      +0.79      +1.42
2023      Aug      +0.61      +0.77      +0.45      +0.78      +0.71      +1.49      +1.30
2023      Sep      +0.80      +0.84      +0.76      +0.82      +0.25      +1.11      +1.17
2023      Oct      +0.79      +0.85      +0.72      +0.85      +0.83      +0.81      +0.57
2023      Nov      +0.77      +0.87      +0.67      +0.87      +0.50      +1.08      +0.29
2023      Dec      +0.75      +0.92      +0.57      +1.01      +1.22      +0.31      +0.70
2024      Jan      +0.80      +1.02      +0.58      +1.20      -0.19      +0.40      +1.12
2024      Feb      +0.88      +0.95      +0.81      +1.17      +1.31      +0.86      +1.16
2024      Mar      +0.88      +0.96      +0.80      +1.26      +0.22      +1.05      +1.34
2024      Apr      +0.94      +1.12      +0.77      +1.15      +0.86      +0.88      +0.54
2024      May      +0.78      +0.77      +0.78      +1.20      +0.05      +0.22      +0.53
2024      June      +0.69      +0.78      +0.60      +0.85      +1.37      +0.64      +0.91
2024      July      +0.74      +0.86      +0.62      +0.97      +0.44      +0.56      -0.06
2024      Aug      +0.76      +0.82      +0.70      +0.75      +0.41      +0.88      +1.75
2024      Sep      +0.81      +1.04      +0.58      +0.82      +1.32      +1.48      +0.98
2024      Oct      +0.75      +0.89      +0.61      +0.64      +1.90      +0.81      +1.09
2024      Nov      +0.64      +0.88      +0.41      +0.54      +1.12      +0.79      +1.00

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/12/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-november-2024-0-64-deg-c/

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 1^st, 2025 at 10:36pm:

Scientists counted 49 ways Australia is destroying the ecosystems we hold dear – but there is hope

I bet they didn't include ripping up the ecological system to plant solar and wind farms.  Saving the environment by destroying it. :'(

Nope. No mention of renewables.

lee wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2025 at 12:48pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 1st, 2025 at 10:36pm: Scientists counted 49 ways Australia is destroying the ecosystems we hold dear – but there is hope I bet they didn't include ripping up the ecological system to plant solar and wind farms.  Saving the environment by destroying it. :'( Nope. No mention of renewables.

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 4^th, 2025 at 4:59pm:

2024 was WAY hotter than previous years: https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Ranked-annual-global-LT-averages-through-2024-2048x1536.jpg

Poor JM. Averages are just  that. Some higher some lower. Was it daytime or nighttime temperatures that caused the average to be warmer?

BTW - Since scientists don't know what caused the warmer temperatures, why are you so sure it is CO2 wotdunnit. As per your "pointy end of AGW" for November. ;)

Monk's weather report consists of him poking his finger up his bum to feel which direction the wind is blowing.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 8^th, 2025 at 6:23am:

Heh, some AGW deniers that comment in the UAH6 comments section are desperate for a La Niña to end the two-year spike of record high global temperatures.

But it was only days ago that poor JM conceded =


Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 4^th, 2025 at 4:19pm:

Finally the extreme heat seems to be giving way to cooler conditions. Scientists do not know why there was such a long period of extreme heat.

Now it is AGW. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk has no idea about climate or anything, except how to copy, steal and troll other boards and topics in his fake Board.

[quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1736370962/0#0 date=1736370962]This is in the NH winter.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/08/us/california-wildfire-la-palisades

[quote]Scramble to Fight Fires With Strained Resources

Nothing in the story about Santa Ana winds, sometimes known as Devil's wind, which causes drying, and no, the lowlands of California are not snow covered. Grasses are known as 1 hour fuel fires.

https://www.noble.org/regenerative-agriculture/prescribed-burn/fuel-loading-fuel-moisture-are-important-components-of-prescribed-fire/

Monk wrote in his MRB -


Quote:

Earth breaches 1.5 °C climate limit for the first time: what does it mean? The threshold has been exceeded for only one year so far, but humanity is nearing the end of what many thought was a ‘safe zone’ as climate change worsens. It’s official: Earth’s average temperature climbed more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2024. Climate scientists announced the breach today, signalling that the world has failed, at least temporarily, to avoid crossing the threshold set by governments to avert the worst impacts of global warming. For the time being, it’s just one metric and one year, but researchers say that it nonetheless serves as a stark reminder that the world is moving into dangerous territory — perhaps more quickly than previously thought.

Look at the UAH chart to end Dec 2024:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_December_2024_v6.1_20x9-2048x922.jpg


Quote:

last year, Earth’s temperature hit 1.55 °C above the average for 1850–1900 — considered to be a ‘pre-industrial’ period before humans began pouring large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Unexpectedly, the 2024 figure also shows a statistically significant increase over that for 2023, when heat records were set. Climate scientists are investigating whether the two-year temperature surge is a blip or whether it marks a change in Earth’s climate system that means global warming is speeding up.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00010-9

It may be that the extreme heat is retreating a bit, but AGW is still at work. Why temperatures spiked so much for so long is still not known. Temperatures, once the spike in temperatures is over temperatures will resume their over 0.2°C per decade climb and sooner or later we will be back, then past, the temperatures at the top of the spike.

This could have been posted in “Environment” but the incompetent Mod of that unhappy board has me permanently banned on a lie of abuse. He should be made Mod of Toolshed, he can just about manage that.

I missed this one -


Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 8^th, 2025 at 6:23am:

The Bureau of Meteorology has not declared a La Niña and instead notes that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently “neutral”“ (neither El Niño nor La Niña), albeit with some indices drifting close to La Niña thresholds. Any unofficial declaration of a La Niña is jumping the gun.

"The most recent value of the Niño3.4 SST index in the central Pacific Ocean to 5 January is −0.83 °C, which meets the La Niña threshold of −0.8 °C."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=nino34&period=weekly#tabs=Overview

Bobby. wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 8:50pm:

The threshold has been exceeded for only one year so far, but humanity is nearing the end of what many thought was a ‘safe zone’ as climate change worsens.

Of course he doesn't define "many". Many were the government delegates at Paris 2015 that decided on an aspirational goal of 1.5C. Nothing at all to do with a"safe zone" as was the Nordhaus (economist) 2C prior. So both neither to do with climate science. Climate seance perhaps. ;)

Hi lee,
so you're saying it's actually cooler?

Bobby. wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:49pm:

Hi lee, so you're saying it's actually cooler?

??

SST's in the Pacific Nino 3.4 zone yes.

lee wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:55pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 11th, 2025 at 9:49pm: Hi lee, so you're saying it's actually cooler? ?? SST's in the Pacific Nino 3.4 zone yes.

OK thanks so Monk doesn't know.    ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 12^th, 2025 at 8:07am:

During 2024, 24% of the Earth’s surface had a locally record warm annual average, including 32% of land areas and 21% of ocean areas. These areas coincided with a number of major population centers. We estimate that 3.3 billion people — 40% of Earth’s population — experienced a locally record warm annual average in 2024. This includes 2/3 of the population of China, and a majority of the populations of Brazil, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mexico, 1/3 of the United States, and much of South and Central America, and Eastern Europe. None of the Earth’s surface had a record cold annual average in 2024.

"locally record warm annual average"? Seems like a long winded way of saying no local absolute temperature records.



And "(n)one of the Earth’s surface had a record cold annual average in 2024"? Wow they expect a record cold average in one year? Especially after the earth warmed from local average temperatures?

Poor JM seems to be going senile. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 1:35pm:

Quote: However, the warming spike in 2023/2024 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we were to assume that global warming was continuing at the same rate as during the 50-year period 1970-2019, then the 2023/2024 excursion would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, with only a roughly 1-in-100 chance of occurring solely due to natural variability. https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Exceptional-Warming-1024x564.png

And since we don't know all the permutations for climate, which is why they use parameterisations, their guess of 1 in 100 years doesn't stack up. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

"Moved: 'BEST global temperature chart'
The contents of this Topic have been moved to this Topic by Jovial Monk"

It seems JM is getting shy. I am not allowed access. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 4:52pm:

Fires like those in LA could hit Sydney or Melbourne. How prepared are we? | David Bowman for the Conversation Read more

Now even arsonists are climate. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 4:13pm:

That is the time we are living in. The study that graphic came from says we are hotter now than any time in the last 120,000 years. Major studies have been done going back into geologic time—CO2 causes warming. Read up about the Permian–Triassic extinction that allowed the rise of reptiles, i.e. dinosaurs.

So now the Roman warm period is no more, the Holocene optimum is no more, the MWP is no more, Minoan etc. And Greenland isn't GLOBAL. ;)

And poor JM refuses to look at the sulphur dioxide during the Permian–Triassic extinction.  But he knows it was CO2, 'coz he just knows stuff. ;)

https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Land-and-Ocean-Time-Series-1024x564.png

Of course it should be remembered that there was no great data for the ocean prior to the Argo buoys, according to Phil Jones, CRU. As most SH ocean temperatures were 'mostly made up".

SST's? They measure the top "few millimetres" when they used buckets. How to tell that the bucket only went down that far? How about rough weather? Go outside and grab the rail with one hand swing the bucket with the other, pull it up one handed, and you still have that problem of a "few millimetres".

Ant then ships intake in the ships engine rooms. Stokers without shirts shovelling coal because of the heat and the water would not be affected?

Just too funny. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 17^th, 2025 at 5:46pm:

Quote: Energy Imbalance and Cloud Cover In order to understand the high rates of warming in 2023 and 2024 it is useful to examine Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). The energy imbalance is the difference between how much energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and how much subsequently escapes back into space as thermal radiation. It is a direct measure of how much extra energy is being trapped in the Earth system as a result of changes in greenhouse gases and other factors. As long as the energy imbalance is positive, we can expect the Earth to continue warming. In the decades since satellites began reliably measuring Earth’s energy imbalance, the values observed in 2023 are the largest on record. This imbalance has subsequently reduced somewhat in 2024. https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2024-EEI-1024x564.png [quote]Spatially, the recent change in Earth’s energy imbalance is concentrated over the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, Europe, and the Southern Ocean. The change in the Southern Ocean is primarily related to record low sea ice cover in recent years. The changes in other ocean basins may be directly related to the reduction in marine sulfur aerosol emissions, which would be expected to allow more sunlight to reach the Earth’s surface.

[/quote]

https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2024-EEI-1024x564.png

Strangely there is nothing in the post about cloud cover.

"he IPCC’s theory on GHG caused GW is that: in the upper atmosphere GHGs absorb LW radiation and reflect some of the heat back to earth, like a blanket, in a process called radiative forcing, RF.  The RF theory does not need a change in incoming SW radiation and RF would result in a decrease in TOA LW radiation.   The IPCC’s RF theory has it’s roots in the assumption that the earths albedo does not change, from the beginning of the IPCC there was no data that said that was not true.  Within the last 20 years Dübal and Vahrenholt (5), Loeb et al shows (18), and Goode et al (17) have all shown the albedo does change and it is correlated to global temperature.  These studies do not match the IPCC’s RF theory – no or little GHG GW is going on in the 20 years of CERES data.  Mapping of cloud cover in Loeb et al shows (18), and Figure 5, location based cloud cover changes inconsistent with uniform distribution of GHGs.  Another theory is needed."
...
There is one more source of low RH hot air.  Globally the change since 1880 from virgin land to crop/pasture was about 6% of the earths land mass with a slightly higher (cooler) change in albedo (3); but, with unexpected lower moisture and hotter air than the virgin land.  The most notable of these changes was the deforestation of the Amazonian rain forest to make crop and pasture land (4).  Costa et al (4) showed that despite an increase in albedo from rain forest to crop/pasture the temperature increase, the RH deceased, the cloud cover decreased, and the rain decreased.  This is a classic example of psychometric temperature and RH behavior.  Combining the UHI and crop/pasture land changes we get 9% of the earth’s land mass producing more hot low RH air than 1700-1880."

https://www.climatedepot.com/2022/04/16/where-have-all-the-clouds-gone-and-why-care-global-cloud-cover-decline-over-past-40-years/

But what about Sulphur dioxide (SO2)? SO2 is a "GHG", that has a cooling effect. It is also reducing. Reducing SO2 mean less nucleii for the formation of clouds, which increases cloud albedo. That is why there have been calls from scientists to increase SO2.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-27460-7_11

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:35pm:

Quote: Pristine ancient forest frozen in time in Rocky Mountains A melting ice patch in the Rocky Mountains uncovered an ancient forest, and these trees have stories to tell about dynamic landscapes and climate change.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:35pm:

Idiots tell me this shows it was warmer in the MWP. Nope, warmer now than at any time in the Holocene Optimum. Globe is warming up so ice retreats north exposing the remains of old forests etc. With time where the ice was the tundra thaws and bacteria then weeds then trees grow in the new soil and the treeline marches north (or south down here of course.) Quote: Beartooth Plateau, which sits at an altitude of over 10,000 feet (3,000 meters), is a barren, tundra-like landscape. But it hasn't always been that way; an ancient forest lies beneath layers of ice. Cooling temperatures about 5,500 years ago quickly encased this whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forest in ice, preserving the trees in nearly perfect condition. Now, as ice patches frozen for millennia melt due to climate change, researchers are finding clues about what this ancient landscape was once like, and how it was preserved. They detailed their findings Dec. 30, 2024, in the journal PNAS. "No one had any idea that these patches of ice had been around for thousands of years," David McWethy, an associate professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at Montana State University and co-author of the study, told Live Science. "Things looked dramatically different than they do today." This ancient forest of whitebark pines thrived for centuries at much higher elevations than the same tree species that can be found in the region today. This is because the global climate went through a warm period between the end of the last ice age, about 10,000 years ago, and the time when these whitebark pines died over 5,000 years ago. A long time for these trees to be buried!

Strangely enough the end of the Holocene was about 5,500 years ago. Not that poor JM will admit it. ;)

lee wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:52pm:

Strangely enough the end of the Holocene was about 5,500 years ago. Not that poor JM will admit it. ;)

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 11^th, 2025 at 5:11am:

This is the strongest ocean current. Original paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb31c Article derived from the paper: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03032025/global-warming-will-weaken-antarctic-circumpolar-current Quote: Fresh water from melting Antarctic ice is projected to weaken the world’s most powerful ocean current by 20 percent in the next quarter century, an international team of scientists concluded in a study published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters. A weakening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current [ACC]—one of Earth’s strongest climate engines—would have dire consequences, including “more climate variability, with greater extremes in certain regions, and accelerated global warming,” said lead author Bishakhdatta Gayen, an associate professor of fluid mechanics at the University of Melbourne. As sea and land ice melts the fresh, cold water floats on top of warmer but salty and so heavier ocean water, preventing the “overturning” part of the Global Overturning Meridional Circulation. [quote]The ACC is the only ocean current to flow around the entire planet unimpeded, carrying more than 100 times more water than all the world’s rivers combined. It reaches 100 to 200 miles wide and as deep as three miles as it circles Antarctica from west to east, mixing water from the planet’s largest ocean basins—the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic.

So a substantial current and so if the ACC changes it will have a big impact on the other oceans—the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic—it passes through.


NB: The troll “Bobby” aka “Booby” aka “Goober” told me Tasmania was IN the ACC. Then the clown posted a map showing the ACC was over 1000Kms SOUTH of Tasmania. LOL, what an idiot!



Quote:

The ACC streams off the shore of southern Australia and southern Africa and flows through the channel between the southern tip of South America and the Antarctica Peninsula, forming the “main mechanism for the exchange of heat, carbon dioxide, chemicals and biology across these ocean basins,” the researchers wrote. “Without that mixing, if the redistribution stops, you can start getting hot spots or cold spots,” Gayen said. If the ocean becomes more stagnant, the likelihood of marine heatwaves and associated impacts like toxic algal blooms increases. As ocean regions warm, they also expand so a weaker ACC could accelerate sea level rise, he added. In the Southern Hemisphere, the ocean off the coast of eastern Australia is currently about 3 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average, and the record ocean temperature has resulted in severe coral reef damage in the region during the last few months. In recent years, there have been record-breaking ocean heat waves in the Tasman Sea and the South Pacific around New Zealand.

For “Bobby:” the Tasman sea is off Australia’s SE coast to the islands of New Zealand.


https://insideclimatenews.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/ACC.jpg


Quote:

Gayen said that a 2023 paper in the journal Nature Climate Change documented how freshwater from melting ice has already been weakening the overturning, or vertical circulation, of Antarctic shelf waters, which also reduces oxygen in the deep ocean. “Analyzing it for the Southern Ocean, we found such a remarkable outcome, that the ACC will slow down 20 percent in the next 30 years,” he said. “This is a very rich model in terms of resolving eddies,” he added, which is important because the full effects of the thousands of loops and swirls along the edges of the ACC across thousands of miles of ocean have not been accurately represented by climate models. Co-author Taimoor Sohail, a postdoctoral research associate at the School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Science at the University of Melbourne, said previous studies show that a growing north-south temperature gradient in the Southern Ocean would speed up the ACC. The new study, along with other recent research, strongly suggests that the salinity changes caused by freshwater from melting ice “far outweigh” temperature effects on the ACC. Gayen said one of the big uncertainties is exactly how much ice is melting. Some recent research estimates the thawing is producing 28.8 trillion gallons of meltwater per year. “We don’t really know much about East Antarctica,” he said. “But one thing is clear, there is a connection between melting and an ACC slowdown.”

[/quote]

From the methods section -

"The primary tool used in this analysis is the ACCESS-OM2-01 ocean-sea ice model (from [32, 36]). ACCESS-OM2-01 has a 0.1-degree horizontal resolution and has 75 vertical levels. "

A model may be good when its projections match observations. But fear porn is not ok. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

A 0.1º degree resolution is about 60 sq Km. Good enough for government work. ;)

More: "Our results show that, by 2050, the strength of the ACC declines by ∼20% for a high-emissions scenario."

WE don't have a high emissions scenbario and the IPCC agrees. RCP8.5, SSP 8.5. ;)

Monk is a lonely old homosexual.
Lee is an intellectual.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 20^th, 2025 at 7:06am:

Quote: Albanese to rush through new laws to protect Tasmania’s salmon industry from legal challenge Labor will push the contentious bill through parliament next week despite concerns about the extinction of the Maugean skate Anthony Albanese plans to rush through contentious legislation next week to protect Tasmania’s salmon industry from a legal challenge over the industry’s impact on an endangered fish species. The future of the salmon industry on the state’s west coast has become a sharp political issue centred on whether it can coexist with the Maugean skate, a ray-like species found only in Macquarie Harbour’s brackish estuarine waters. After lobbying by industry leaders and Tasmanian MPs, Albanese wrote to the state’s three salmon companies last month promising the government would change the law to ensure there were “appropriate environmental laws” to “continue sustainable salmon farming” in the harbour. Maugean skates have been hatched in a captive breeding program in Tasmania Scientists say Tasmania’s Maugean skate could become extinct – so why are local leaders still backing the salmon industry? Read more He had expected that would be a commitment for the next term of parliament. But with the election campaign delayed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred, the prime minister plans to introduce a bill on Tuesday that could abruptly end a long-running legal review by the environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, into whether an expansion of the industry in the harbour in 2012 was properly approved. The bill – an amendment to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act – has been listed to be introduced in the lower house next Tuesday, 25 March, when parliament will largely be focused on the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, delivering the federal budget. It is expected in the Senate the following day. With the Greens and several crossbench senators opposed, it will need the support of the Coalition to pass. Peter Dutton has previously told the industry he would guarantee its future and legislate if elected prime minister. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/19/albanese-to-rush-through-new-laws-to-protect-tasmanias-salmon-industry-from-legal-threat

JM back to his favourite sauce. (No not that ;)). The Guardian home of the scientifically minded. ;D ;D ;D ;D

"For the first time in nearly a decade, scientists have recorded an increased presence of young Maugean skates – a ray of hope for the survival of the endangered species.

The research by the University of Tasmania’s Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies offers a promising sign for the Maugean skate, a species endemic to the unique environment of Macquarie Harbour."

https://www.utas.edu.au/about/news-and-stories/articles/2024/signs-of-hope-for-endangered-maugean-skate

Sep 24

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 20^th, 2025 at 10:38pm:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pFeJ0JWFPk&ab_channel=WeatherIQ The State of the Climate Reports 2018–2024 have all mentioned the drying of the southern half of Australia and the increasing rainfal in the north. The graph in the very short youtube illustrates this VERY clearly! AGW is real!

Strangely AGW is only from 2018 according to JM. That must make the year 2000 pre-AGW,

"Most yearly precipitation      240.0 cm      2000"

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/townsville

Of course it could just be that it didn't fit the narrative. You know monsoons, tropical lows - nothing to do with precipitation. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2025 at 7:18pm:

From spaceweather.com where I am still tracking the sun. Quote: NEW EVIDENCE THAT COSMIC RAYS SPARK LIGHTNING: Every second, almost 50 bolts of lightning zig-zag across the skies of Earth. Despite centuries of study, however, researchers still aren't sure how the bolts get started. Electric fields in thunderclouds are often too weak to ignite a powerful discharge.

Svensmark anyone? ;)

Monk is in foetal position reliving his baby memories.

Cosmic Rays is a very broad range of anything hitting the planet.
Considering the mass movement of cloud and gas moving on Jupiter, I would say molecular friction is the base cause it has lightning everywhere constantly.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 31^st, 2025 at 11:17pm:

[quote]Winter sea ice cover in the Arctic was the lowest it’s ever been at its annual peak on March 22, 2025, according to NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder. At 5.53 million square miles (14.33 million square kilometers), the maximum extent fell below the prior low of 5.56 million square miles (14.41 million square kilometers) in 2017.

So 80,000 square km out of 14.41 million km is a calamity. That's 5.5%. ;)

But -

"The uncertainties in SIA and SIE investigated here stem from uncertainties in the underlying SIC fields. Passive microwave SIC estimates in regions of consolidated ice have typically smaller uncertainties (2 % to 8 % SIC) than estimates from low to intermediate SIC areas with uncertainties in the order of 20 % SIC or more (Kern et al., 2019, 2022; Alekseeva et al., 2019; Meier, 2005). "

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2473/2024/

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2025 at 12:13am:

Even now idiots in the areas experiencing unusual cold will be posting on Twitter etc “Cold—grand solar minimum!” “Little Ice Age!” and crap like that.

At least he stopped short of blaming it on AGW. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://www.noticer.news/stuart-bonds-hunter-renewable-energy/


Aussie coal miner exposes renewable energy madness in viral speech

“Can you tell me why we would load trains, millions of millions of tonnes of coal on 100-carriage trains, shipped all the way over to China, and then they burn it for cheap electricity, turn it into wind turbines, and ship them back,” he told the forum.

“And then we’re going to build them all throughout our community, you will need 1,000 of these things spinning 24 hours a day to replace one 2000 megawatt coal-fired power station.

“So by the time you build them you will be rebuilding them – they don’t last 20 years. If you think that this, and the infrastructure, and the tens of thousands of kilometres of transmission lines, is going to make your life cheaper, well, I’ve got a bridge to sell you in New York.”

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 14^th, 2025 at 10:14am:

[quote] Beyond the immediate losses inflicted by severe weather and flooding, a decline in output is likely as crops fail and extreme heat strains supply chains.

And yet the data from the FAO show increased outputs from crops due to CO2. But NEVER question the narrative. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on Apr 14^th, 2025 at 5:25pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 14th, 2025 at 10:14am: [quote] Beyond the immediate losses inflicted by severe weather and flooding, a decline in output is likely as crops fail and extreme heat strains supply chains. And yet the data from the FAO show increased outputs from crops due to CO2. But NEVER question the narrative. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk doesn't know -

all he has is a fake degree he bought on the internet for $30.    ::)

https://m3.gab.com/media_attachments/43/a6/be/43a6befa95531a53e4ba5d149733c165.jpg

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 15^th, 2025 at 9:21am:

Quote: Rural Human Rights Defenders Face Serious and Growing Risks, UN Report Reveals BY KATIE SURMA “They’re doing this work very bravely, without any support.” For the people defending human rights and the environment in rural places, the isolation of their communities makes violence, surveillance and harassment more likely. https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=b001e1c2a0&e=6ebd90addc

Strangely there is no attribution to anyone anywhere. But its a climate crisis. ;)


Quote:

A Year After a Fatal Explosion, Alabama Extends Deadline for Coal Companies to Monitor Methane Gas Above Mines BY LEE HEDGEPETH Following federal intervention last year, state officials had given coal operators 90 days to submit methane monitoring plans. At the request of the Alabama Mining Association, regulators have now given them six more months.

https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=bb1a4f1a30&e=6ebd90addc

"Burton is a resident of Oak Grove, a rural community in western Jefferson County, about 45 miles southwest of Birmingham, that sits above an expanding longwall coal mine. The impacts of the aggressive form of mining—cracking roads, damaging foundations, causing land subsidence and triggering the escape of potentially explosive methane gas—have plagued the community for years. That culminated in a home explosion atop the mine in March 2024 that that killed grandfather W.M. Griffice and seriously injured his grandson."

So potentially explosive becomes "it exploded". ;)


Quote:

American Farmers and the USDA Had Finally Embraced Their Role in the Climate Crisis. Then Came the Federal Funding Freeze BY GEORGINA GUSTIN Critics say the Trump administration’s halt to billions in conservation spending could cause long-term damage and slow hard-won progress.

https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=ccfbafeda1&e=6ebd90addc

"“When we have the dry, hot summers or lack of rainfall, our crops can sustain the dry spells better. We don’t have huge yield decreases,” Burk said. “And when it rains and we have the freak storms, like it seems to do so much now, we don’t have the ponding and all the runoff.”

An added bonus: He needs less fertilizer, a major operating expense."

Wow A farmer found the benefit of CO2 fertilisation. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 15^th, 2025 at 9:40am:

Poor lees! He SO wanted a La Nina to cool things down a bit so he could tell himself AGW wasn’t real

And the lies continue. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2025 at 8:06pm:

Quote: Australia’s next government may be Great Barrier Reef’s last chance after sixth mass bleaching, conservationist says

'Another last chance for GBR. Despite temperatures being warmer in the past, when corals flourished. ;D ;D ;D ;D

He even manages to invoke the "Climate Crises". ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 26^th, 2025 at 11:38am:

Quote: Building the world’s biggest plane to help catch the wind Radia, a Colorado-based company, wants to build enormous aircraft to transport giant wind turbine blades. It’s betting that politics won’t get in the way. For almost a decade, Radia, a company based in Boulder, Colo., has been working on developing what would be the world’s largest plane, one that it said would have a dozen times the cargo volume of a Boeing 747. Radia’s WindRunner aircraft would solve a crucial problem for the wind power industry. Giant wind turbine blades are more efficient, but often can’t be easily shipped across aging roads and bridges. Covers Trumpy not liking wind—not a problem for long. [quote]A potential boost for wind power Larger wind turbines have a key advantage: They can operate at lower speeds and, as a result, can be deployed in more areas across the country, Lundstrom said. Longer blades can also catch more wind, he said. “The entire country benefits from cheaper energy,” Lundstrom said. That includes a number of red states that could disproportionately benefit from wind power, he said. The N.B.A.’s Hidden Game: Arranging Courtside Celebrities Moving larger wind turbines is so tough that some developers have had to build roads specifically for wind projects. Tunnels are too narrow, bridges are too low and roads can be too tight to make turns when transporting these massive parts, Lundstrom said. To help with this, the WindRunner would have the ability to land on dirt. And that size problem is also expected to only get worse: Some wind turbine blades today can span around 230 feet, but they’re expected to grow to more than 330 feet in the coming years, according to Radia. Radia’s goal is for the WindRunner to be rolled out before the end of the decade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/25/climate/radia-the-worlds-biggest-plane.html[/quote]


Of course, what he doesn't say is that giant wind turbines require giant mountings, much more concrete (CO2 anyone), much more separation due to wind shadow, much more mining, much more land clearing (environment anyone)? ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 28^th, 2025 at 8:12pm:

From deniers, according to the Guardian. Is IS getting a bit hard to, you know, deny AGW when it is so bloody hot for so long and ice cover is at a minimum. Whoever said that deniers don’t talk against AGW hasn’t looked here

From that harbinger of TRUTH, the Guardian. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

In the same thread about loss of power in the Iberian Peninsula -


Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 29^th, 2025 at 11:45am:

It was something to do with the European grid, powered in part by French nuclear power.

Of course the nuclear did not go down. ;)

And just days after PV magazine posted about Spain achieving 100% renewables in a weekday.

"Spain hits first weekday of 100% renewable power on national grid

Spain’s grid ran entirely on renewable energy for the first time on April 16, with wind, solar, and hydro meeting all peninsular electricity demand during a weekday. Five days later, solar set a new record, generating 20,120 MW of instantaneous power – covering 78.6% of demand and 61.5% of the grid mix."

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/04/22/spain-hits-first-weekday-of-100-renewable-power-on-national-grid/

Renewables are good, until they ain't. ;)

"The network lost 15 gigawatts of electricity generation in five seconds at around midday local time, the Spanish energy ministry said, without explaining the reason for the loss."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-29/spain-portugal-power-outage-how-it-happened/105227080

No explanation as yet.

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 30^th, 2025 at 9:19am:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2025-close-behind-2024-as-the-hottest-start-to-a-year/ Another hot year, despite a weak La Nina in the first two months, but not a record breaker:

Now these are so-called average temperatures, from a mere 2 data points per day, that is the median not the average. Now if you took records hourly, you could possibly find the true average. Does the temperature, spike and the average is less than the two point  anomaly really sit at the middle of the two temperatures? We don't know, but it is always worse than we thought. ;)

lee wrote on Apr 30^th, 2025 at 3:58pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 30th, 2025 at 9:19am: https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2025-close-behind-2024-as-the-hottest-start-to-a-year/ Another hot year, despite a weak La Nina in the first two months, but not a record breaker: Now these are so-called average temperatures, from a mere 2 data points per day, that is the median not the average. Now if you took records hourly, you could possibly find the true average. Does the temperature, spike and the average is less than the two point  anomaly really sit at the middle of the two temperatures? We don't know, but it is always worse than we thought. ;)

Don't listen to Monk -
he's a high school dropout who projects that failure on to me.

Monk couldn't even identify or tell us any rock and mineral stories on this thread:

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1735199488/60


He says he has a BSc which makes him a trained geologist.   ::)

RE: Moon to get Hammered

Jovial Monk wrote on May 1^st, 2025 at 5:45pm:

By an asteroid. Quote: 'City-killer' asteroid that might hit moon has 'unexpected' shape, astronomers say The once-dubbed "city-killer" asteroid 2024 YR4 has surprised scientists with its 'unusual' shape as it rapidly rotates through space on a trajectory that could see it hit the moon. If it does hit the moon won’t do any real damage. Be spectacular tho! https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-that-might-hit-moon-has-unexpected-shape-astronomers-say

So in the final sentence he admits it is supposition. Just like his climate thing. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on May 1^st, 2025 at 6:13pm:

RE: Moon to get Hammered Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2025 at 5:45pm: By an asteroid. Quote: 'City-killer' asteroid that might hit moon has 'unexpected' shape, astronomers say The once-dubbed "city-killer" asteroid 2024 YR4 has surprised scientists with its 'unusual' shape as it rapidly rotates through space on a trajectory that could see it hit the moon. If it does hit the moon won’t do any real damage. Be spectacular tho! https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-that-might-hit-moon-has-unexpected-shape-astronomers-say So in the final sentence he admits it is supposition. Just like his climate thing. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk doesn't know.    ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 5:23am:

"Warmer air holds more water. It's fundamental," Becker said.

Actually that is not true. Warmer air MAY hold more water, but it is not a given. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation has not been overturned.  ;)

You would think a Professor of Atmospheric Science would know that.

"Dr. Emily Becker is a Research Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science and the Associate Director of UM’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS). "

https://people.miami.edu/profile/e0c37d67e44050fe43c1563befb82dc1

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 12:29pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on May 6th, 2025 at 5:23am: "Warmer air holds more water. It's fundamental," Becker said. Actually that is not true. Warmer air MAY hold more water, but it is not a given. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation has not been overturned.  ;) You would think a Professor of Atmospheric Science would know that. "Dr. Emily Becker is a Research Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science and the Associate Director of UM’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS). " https://people.miami.edu/profile/e0c37d67e44050fe43c1563befb82dc1

Hi Lee -
I don't follow you there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius%E2%80%93Clapeyron_relation

Clausius–Clapeyron relation


Kelvin and his brother James Thomson confirmed the relation experimentally in 1849–50,
and it was historically important as a very early successful application of theoretical thermodynamics.
[5] Its relevance to meteorology and climatology is the increase of the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere
by about 7% for every 1 °C (1.8 °F) rise in temperature.

The Atmosphere CAN hold more water. It doesn't mean it MUST, but could.

A reference -
https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/646/

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 5:27pm:

The Atmosphere CAN hold more water. It doesn't mean it MUST, but could. A reference - https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/646/

Does that link prove your point?    :-/

"You may have heard a phrase such as “warm air can have more moisture than cold air”. "

"The other version of the equation is used to determine what could be the maximum amount of moisture in the air for a given temperature."

It is not deterministic.

Another -

"By the end of this section, you should be able to discuss why the idea that warm air holds more water vapor than cold air is a fallacy, and discuss how water drops grow in terms of condensation rates and evaporation rates."

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/node/2223

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 5:55pm:

"You may have heard a phrase such as “warm air can have more moisture than cold air”. " "The other version of the equation is used to determine what could be the maximum amount of moisture in the air for a given temperature." It is not deterministic. Another - "By the end of this section, you should be able to discuss why the idea that warm air holds more water vapor than cold air is a fallacy, and discuss how water drops grow in terms of condensation rates and evaporation rates." https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/node/2223

OK - maybe in future you could confine your criticisms of Monk
to only his most humiliating examples?

I would have thought that a scientist, like Monk, would know that. He spreads his imaginings. ::)

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 6:29pm:

I would have thought that a scientist, like Monk, would know that. He spreads his imaginings. ::)

His scientific credentials are in doubt.

Monk couldn't even identify or tell us any rock and mineral stories on this thread:

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1735199488/60


He says he has a BSc which makes him a trained geologist.   ::)

https://goodnewsplanet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/310683B6-110F-4285-9901-16E575E5F424.jpeg

Super Nova wrote on May 7^th, 2025 at 2:22pm:

https://goodnewsplanet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/310683B6-110F-4285-9901-16E575E5F424.jpeg

No politics here. ::)

https://www.businesstoday.in/science/story/from-loss-to-surprise-gain-after-decades-of-melting-east-antarcticas-key-glaciers-show-rare-recovery-474640-2025-05-04


From loss to surprise gain:
After decades of melting, East Antarctica’s key glaciers show rare recovery

Between 2021 and 2023, the Antarctic Ice Sheet gained mass — for the first time in decades. This anomaly, driven by unusual precipitation patterns, is reshaping how scientists understand the icy continent’s role in the climate crisis

Business Today Desk

Updated May 4, 2025


Then, between 2021 and 2023, the trend took a surprising turn.
Antarctica saw a net gain of 107.79 gigatons of ice per year — marking a rare period of recovery.
This gain was especially pronounced in four East Antarctic glacier basins — Totten, Moscow, Denman and Vincennes Bay — which had previously been losing mass due to reduced surface accumulation and faster ice discharge. These glaciers, once indicators of accelerating loss, shifted course and began accumulating ice again.

Even though they said this NASA has said SLR was 5.9mm, something that the long term tide gauges don't show. It is only an artefact of successive satellite flights, each with its own parameters.

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/nasa-sea-level-rise-to-2025.png?

Both NOAA and University of Colorado disagree with NASA.

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/colorado-sea-level-rise-to-2025.png

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/trend-sea-level-five-satellites.png

There is a seasonal change of 5.9mm, but that is not acceleration.

https://m3.gab.com/media_attachments/37/c1/ae/37c1ae07e55a7519a29170687e522ae7.jpg

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 10^th, 2025 at 3:28pm:

One of the major sources in the decrease in the rate of CO2 emissions could well be China which has invested heavily in nuclear and other clean energy. Again, will discuss this in more detail later.

Yes, He's back.


So if you rely on nameplate figures, they are doing well. But the devil is in the supply side detail, which is scarce. ;)

Nowhere can you find capacity factor figures. ;)

Of course then we need to look at what China is doing overseas. Particularly in oil and gas.

"A report released earlier this year showed that in 2024, China’s foreign oil and gas investments hit an all-time high of $24.3 billion, mostly focused in the Middle East. Total Chinese investments in the region hit $39 billion last year, Chinese think tank Green Finance & Development Center, which produced the report, said."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-and-Beyond-Chinas-Expanding-Global-Footprint.html

As for coal - "The country began building 94.5 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-power capacity and resumed 3.3GW of suspended projects in 2024, the highest level of construction in the past 10 years, according to the two thinktanks."

https://www.carbonbrief.org/chinas-construction-of-new-coal-power-plants-reached-10-year-high-in-2024/

But wishes exceed data apparently.

You know he's just an alcoholic pot smoking bum

More from the Arch bedwetter.  About coral bleaching, whether it can recover from mass bleachings and then a curious graphic. Conflating SST increase with marine heatwaves, two entirely different things.

I will even resize it for him.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/ocean_heat.png

And then of course notice the 'y' axis, in zettajoules to scare the unwary muppets.

And why?

The graphic talks about Ocean Heat Content, not even surface temperature or close to, where corals live.

It takes about 2600 Zj to raise the top TWO km of ocean by 1ºC, so that would make 300Zjor about 0.115ºC. Scary huh? ;)

And then of course we know that they didn't have global coverage before Argo, about year 2000, so the knowledge in 1960 was rather less. And even now with 4000 Argo floats, the data points are still scarce.

Just colour me shocked that a person who claims to be a scientist doesn't know that.

Of course AIMS has their scary prediction attached to the 23-24 report after saying how good '24 was.

https://www.aims.gov.au/monitoring-great-barrier-reef/gbr-condition-summary-2023-24

Edit: "As well as degrees Celsius, ocean heat content can be measured as energy, in gigajoules (GJ) or watts (W)."

https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2023/ocean-heat-content

Edit 2: "he temperatures in the Argo profiles are accurate to ± 0.002°C and pressures are accurate to ± 2.4dbar."

https://argo.ucsd.edu/faq/

Which begs the question - if it reads in °C why convert to Zj?

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 31^st, 2025 at 11:12pm:

And just to show AGW really is happening: Quote: The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through June 2025) now stands at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans). https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/07/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-june-2025-0-48-deg-c/

https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2025_v6.1_20x9-2048x922.jpg



And nothing there linking it to CO2. Except JM's mind. ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 4^th, 2025 at 6:08pm:

Polar bear populations are interesting. Heading for extinction then killing them was outlawed and the population of polar bears recovered. Since then, however, the population is declining slowly. The population is scattered in several different areas with the biggest population in the thick ice off the north coast of the Canadian Antarctic Archipelago. Problem is—the thick ice off the CAA is disappearing. Polar bears are heading for extinction. Increasingly they will leave the sea ice and move onto land, merging with the grizzly bear population.

But strangely there have been low periods before.

https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0277379124002051-gr3.jpg


https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379124002051

And then they take the mean.

Have a look at those historical lows in a sparse database.

or

"Western Hudson Bay sea ice breakup for polar bears like the 1980s for 3 of the last 5 yrs"

https://polarbearscience.com/2024/08/13/western-hudson-bay-sea-ice-breakup-for-polar-bears-like-the-1980s-for-3-of-the-last-5-yrs/

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 11^th, 2025 at 7:53am:

This spectacular incompetence was underlined when the moron “moderating” the “Environment MRB” posted a weak “cute” YouTube instead of covering the NSW floods and the FIVE DEATHS by drowning caused by these floods. Discussion of whether these floods are becoming more frequent etc—forget about it!

Of course, he posts but as he doesn't actually make a claim, it is hard to see just what he believes.

"There have been several flood events in the state’s history in which
more than twenty people have died."

https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/hazard-and-risk-update20220928.pdf

So more flood deaths when the population wasn't as high? ::)

Jasin wrote on Jul 10^th, 2025 at 7:22pm:

You know he's just an alcoholic pot smoking bum

No alcoholics I know are pot smokers. And vice versa.

UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 12^th, 2025 at 12:43am:

Jasin wrote on Jul 10th, 2025 at 7:22pm: You know he's just an alcoholic pot smoking bum No alcoholics I know are pot smokers. And vice versa.

Well good news Subby. Monk admitted he has a few plants.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 13^th, 2025 at 11:10am:

I had a look at the so–called Environment board. It is full of posts calling me gay, pot smoker etc. What is missing? Any mention of the Environment! In particular—there is ZERO mention of the algal bloom off SA’s coasts, Spencers and St Vincent gulfs. Now this bloom is not some esoteric event happening thousands of kilometres away, the bloom, the dead fish etc found on Adelaide suburban beaches have been the subject of nightly news programs! Yet not a mention on our supposed Environment board! Not a skerrick of info. Obviously, putting a high school dropout in charge of a scientific board, which Environment should be, is a very, very bad idea! The lack of scientific papers on the environment and ecology has destroyed the Search Engine Optimisation standing of OzPolitics. Bobby is the reason this forum is headed down the plug hole. Sure the lousy management, the clearly ideologically driven bans of those not sharing FD’s politics, the allowance of abuse, of misogyny, homophobia, of attacks on family have all driven the more intelligent members away. But the drop in SEO rankings because an uneducated idiot is in charge of Environment is the main reason OzPolitic is sinking.

So he rants and raves about the board, but carefully doesn't say what is causing the alagal bloom.  Is it Climate Change/AGW? He doesn't say but that is generally his mantra. Is it manmade? is it natural?

"Scientists believe a mix of three factors created the perfect storm:

    A marine heatwave, with ocean temperatures around 2.5°C above average since September 2024
    Nutrient-rich water from the 2022–23 River Murray flood entering the sea
    A rare cold-water upwelling last summer, which brought even more nutrients to the surface."

https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/goodliving/posts/2025/07/sa-algal-bloom-faqs

Hmm. All natural events.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/images/small/noaahighres.png

"Southern Ocean marine heatwaves: variability, hotspots and teleconnections"

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10872-025-00769-5

The image is linked in the paper. But there doesn't appear to be anything near SA. One red dot on the WA border.

As per the NOAA data 0.25x0.25 grid is 633Km². Good enough for government work. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 13^th, 2025 at 4:34pm:

Was the 2.5°C marine heatwave caused by AGW? One of my quoted articles said it most likely was but the question being discussed was why the bloom happened.

Now all he need is to show how CO2 warms the oceans. The only thing that can warm the ocean is the Sun.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 15^th, 2025 at 8:36pm:

I guess I need to make another environmental post because the high school dropout ruining the Environment board doesn’t have a clue. [quote]Spain wildfires are ‘clear warning’ of climate emergency, minister says Environment minister says blazes, in which two people have died, are proof of country’s vulnerability to global heating The heatwave-fuelled wildfires that have killed two people in Spain over recent days, devouring thousands of hectares of land and forcing thousands of people from their homes, are a “clear warning” of the impact of the climate emergency, the country’s environment minister has said. Speaking on Wednesday morning, as firefighters in Spain, Greece and other Mediterranean countries continued to battle dozens of blazes, Sara Aagesen said the 14 wildfires still burning across seven Spanish regions were further proof of the country’s particular vulnerability to global heating. Aagesen said that while some of the fires appeared to have been started deliberately, the deadly blazes were a clear indicator of the climate emergency and of the need for better preparation and prevention. “The fires are one of the parts of the impact of that climate change, which is why we have to do all we can when it comes to prevention,” she told Cadena Ser radio. “Our country is especially vulnerable to climate change. We have resources now but, given that the scientific evidence and the general expectation point to it having an ever greater impact, we need to work to reinforce and professionalise those resources.” The Spanish government on Wednesday said it has asked the European Union for its help, in particular for two water-bombing planes. “We officially asked tonight” for the assistance, interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska told Cadena Ser.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/13/spain-wildfires-climate-crisis-heatwave

Meanwhile -

"Spain’s devastating summer wildfires have taken a grim turn, with police arresting four people, including a firefighter, accused of arson.

The arrests come as dozens of serious fires continue to rage across Castile and León and Galicia, killing at least three people and forcing thousands from their homes."

https://euroweeklynews.com/2025/08/13/locals-and-a-firefighter-arrested-for-starting-spain-fires/

Arson? The good ol' Guardian wouldn't doctor the news would it? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jasin wrote on Aug 12^th, 2025 at 12:51am:

UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 12th, 2025 at 12:43am: Jasin wrote on Jul 10th, 2025 at 7:22pm: You know he's just an alcoholic pot smoking bum No alcoholics I know are pot smokers. And vice versa. Well good news Subby. Monk admitted he has a few plants.

So, which is it? He smokes up? Or he drinks? Cannot be both.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 21^st, 2025 at 11:15am:

A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss.

But of course we know nothing of Antarctic sea-ice extent from centuries past. And their graphic goes back to 1980. Ah, the models. And nothing about the size of the error bars on the paleo proxies. ;)

https://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-025-09349-5/MediaObjects/41586_2025_9349_Fig1_HTML.png

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Reconstruction of sea ice 1900-1999.
https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-025-09349-5/MediaObjects/41586_2025_9349_Fig10_ESM.jpg

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2025 at 7:29pm:

Bit more on the bloom and algal blooms generally: Seems the SA bloom “pulsates” with weather driving it away only for the bloom to return. Quote: Climate change Anderson stresses that South Australia’s experience is not unique, but he also warns that the climate crisis is already having a “huge effect” on the likelihood of more blooms. He says there is a dangerous bloom on Alaska’s coast, which is a pristine, cold environment. “I have a member of my staff on a vessel up in the Alaskan Arctic,” he says. “The reason we’re up there is because the waters up there have warmed so much that toxic [algae] is moving into those waters. “Throughout the world we’re seeing that kind of … range shift. There are areas that are getting warmer and more receptive [to blooms] but then there’s some areas that are getting too warm and the species can’t survive any more.” The CSIRO has long-term forecasts to predict marine heatwaves, which cause coral bleaching and fish kills as well as algal blooms and other disruptions to ecosystems. “Marine heatwave forecasting tells you how you might be loading the dice for a range of ecological impacts,” CSIRO chief research scientist, Dr Alistair Hobday, told the latest briefing. “Marine heatwaves are a stress test for the future as well because what we Even Alaska is experiencing blooms in what was a pristine cold sea that has warmed due to AGW. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/aug/25/were-trying-to-call-on-everybody-that-we-can-south-australia-scrambles-to-fight-its-pulsating-algal-bloom

Wow. Arctic Oceans are home to algal blooms due to AGW.

Algal blooms in the Chutki Sea, like phtyoplankton, home to the poor poley. bear.

UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 18^th, 2025 at 8:25pm:

Jasin wrote on Aug 12th, 2025 at 12:51am: UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 12th, 2025 at 12:43am: Jasin wrote on Jul 10th, 2025 at 7:22pm: You know he's just an alcoholic pot smoking bum No alcoholics I know are pot smokers. And vice versa. Well good news Subby. Monk admitted he has a few plants. So, which is it? He smokes up? Or he drinks? Cannot be both.

Not true, you just don't do both on the same day.

Out of pot, hit the piss.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 1^st, 2025 at 10:22am:

Galileo’s achievements cont’d Quote: • Showed that the set of perfect squares 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81,     100… has as many members in it as the set of whole numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,   6, 7, 8 9, 10… even though, at first sight, the set of whole numbers appears   to contain more members. Article goes on to mention Galileo’s trouble with the idiotic church. You can read all about it, even watch a movie IIRC. https://www.famousscientists.org/galileo-galilei/

This is the same "idiotic" church that engendered a lot of science. It is like blaming the current CO2 hypothesis on all current scientists. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 5^th, 2025 at 8:37am:

Quote: "In 2019, after the last fish kill, which was cleaned up, the river was dead — effectively dead — for three years," Mr Shipton, the co-founder of the Friends of Anglesea River group, said. "After a big rain event in 2022, which punched a hole in the sand bank at the river mouth, we had a tidal river for a few months and that allowed a lot of fish to come in." But he said there was no knowing how long the latest incident could last. Acidification, liberated sulphur all are suspected causes. Does it have anything to do with a now-closed coal mine that pumped groundwater from the mine into the river? Seems keeping the connection to the sea open is the way to keep the river healthy, with pollutants, acid, sulphur etc draining out to the sea. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-04/anglesea-river-fish-kill-event-water-envi...

Bad news. But somehow, but suspected causes are just that,

More form the story, not mentioned above -

"There is broad consensus that the exact cause of the deaths is one — or a combination — of three key issues: high acidity in the water, aluminium toxicity, or a chemical process called flocculation.

"There's a couple of things happening in the estuary that are affecting fish," Dr Clarke explains.

"One is those low pH — or acidic — water conditions, and they can directly affect fish by impacting their skin and gills."

So both high and low pH, don't they test the water?

"We're also seeing something called flocculation, which is where the particles suspended in the water can clump together and that can smother the gills of fish and impact their ability to breathe."

No mention of causes of flocculation. Not very scintific of them.

"And then it's also possible that things like metal toxicity could be impacting the fish, and some of those chemical processes in the water use up oxygen.

"That's oxygen that the fish need to survive as well."

Maybe. perhaps they need to research.

Look at what the high school drop out just posted:



Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 6^th, 2025 at 8:11pm:

We need someone with intelligence and some knowledge of science. We need this desperately to try to save OzPolitic! Over the last few days I have covered four major environmental issues: 1. The NSW floods 2 months ago 2. The Adelaide/SA algal bloom killing marine life 3. The death of the Anglesea River 4. The report by the NSW EPA on levels of lead in childrens brains near lead mines and how cosy the EPA/Mining companies relationship was. There are more issues. They do not get covered in the so–called Environment MRB! The mod there is clueless, dumb and uneducated. Environment should be one board publishing links to authoritative scientific/media/government sites so raising our SEO rankings helping us attract more decent, intelligent members. Post rates are declining. over 1000 less posts Jul–Aug this year than in Jul–Aug last year. Over 20 less posts per day. Lately we rarely have over 300 posts per day, lately we see under 200 posts per day. Other things need doing—switch to something better than YABB, reduce the immense front page etc. But we need lots of good links and we are not getting those in anywhere near enough numbers.

Monk,
I am here to moderate this forum -
posters will post what they are interested in reading about.
I do introduce topics from time to time.

Stop reading and copying my posts from here - you plagiarist -
get your own material.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 6^th, 2025 at 10:02pm:

Quote: Key Atlantic current could start collapsing as early as 2055, new study finds The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation brings heat to the Northern Hemisphere and regulates the climate globally, but research suggests it could weaken significantly in the coming decades. The so–called Little Ice Age, predominantly a North Atlantic event, may have been started by a similar failure of the Gulf Stream. [quote]The currents are those that form the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which loops around the Atlantic Ocean like a giant conveyor belt, bringing heat to the Northern Hemisphere before traveling south again along the seabed. Depending on how much carbon humans emit in the next few decades, the AMOC could reach a tipping point and start to collapse as early as 2055, with dramatic consequences for several regions, researchers found. This scary prediction, based on a scenario where carbon emissions double between now and 2050, is considered unlikely — but the outcome of a much more likely scenario where emissions hover around current levels for the next 25 years isn't much better, according to the study. Even if we keep global warming this century to 4.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2.7 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels — a "middle of the road" scenario, according to the latest U.N. climate report — the AMOC will start to collapse in 2063, the results suggest. "The chance of tipping is much larger than previously thought," Sybren Drijfhout, a professor of physical oceanography at the University of Southampton in the U.K. and Utrecht University in the Netherlands, told Live Science in an email. Overall, the chance of the AMOC collapsing this century is about 50-50, Drijfhout, who was not involved in the new research but recently led a similar study published in the journal Environment Research Letters, estimates.

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/key-atlantic-current-could-start-collapsing-as-early-as-2055-new-study-finds

Original article:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022651[/quote]

So it is postulated it led to the Little Ice Age, which according to Michael E Mann, never existed, and which wasn't caused by AGW, but this time it could be? So what caused it last time? The story is all goobledegook and is models all the way down. Those same mosdels that have never een verified or validated. The hubris it burns. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Models are not physics based. Parameterisation is not physics.

lee wrote on Sep 6^th, 2025 at 10:45pm:

So it is postulated it led to the Little Ice Age, which according to Michael E Mann, never existed, and which wasn't caused by AGW, but this time it could be? So what caused it last time? The story is all goobledegook and is models all the way down. Those same mosdels that have never een verified or validated. The hubris it burns. ;D ;D ;D ;D Models are not physics based. Parameterisation is not physics.

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 7^th, 2025 at 6:12pm:

Where is Karnal? Quote: 25th Aug, 2025 at 4:29pm Looks like a long ban—at the expense of post count. JohnSmith—banned even earlier. OzPolitic can no longer afford long bans like this!

Strangely his bans aren't part of his angst. ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on Sep 7^th, 2025 at 6:34pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 7th, 2025 at 6:12pm: Where is Karnal? Quote: 25th Aug, 2025 at 4:29pm Looks like a long ban—at the expense of post count. JohnSmith—banned even earlier. OzPolitic can no longer afford long bans like this! Strangely his bans aren't part of his angst. ;D ;D ;D ;D

No one bans as many posters as Monk -  what a hypocrite.  ::)

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1611732194/0


List of banned posters from Monk's MRB:

Leroy,
Aussie,
Setanta,
JaSin,
Bobby,
Gordon,
Baron,
Lee.

According to JM, Board bans are somehow completely different. Like they are a pseudo ban. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 8^th, 2025 at 11:14am:

Quote: Why have cloudbursts killed hundreds in Pakistan and India this monsoon season? So far, this monsoon season has seen four major cloudbursts, including in India's Uttarakhand and Pakistan's Buner. [quote]Cloudbursts—massive, sudden downpours of rain.

Quote:

a cloudburst means more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rainfall in one hour, over a small area.

Hmmmm

Quote:

This year, the monsoon, which originates in the Bay of Bengal and then sweeps westwards across northern India to Pakistan every summer, has brought deadly cloudbursts. Weather studies say cloudbursts typically occur in South Asia when warm, monsoon winds, laden with moisture, meet the cold mountain air in the north of India and Pakistan, causing condensation. With a warming planet, the monsoon has hotter air, which can carry more moisture. India’s weather department data shows cloudbursts are most common in the Himalayan regions of Indian Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Fahad Saeed, a senior climate scientist at Berlin-based Climate Analytics, said that in the mountains of northern Pakistan, the warm monsoon system coming from the east was meeting colder air coming from the west, from the subtropical jet stream — a high-altitude weather system that originates in the Mediterranean. Global warming is pushing this jet stream further south in summer, he said, where it can now combine with the lower-level clouds of the monsoon in Pakistan, forming a tower of clouds which then generates intense rain. Similar intense rainfall, though triggered by different local factors, takes place around the world, such as the floods in Texas in July, when more than 300 mm of rain fell in less than an hour, sending a wall of water down the Guadalupe River.

More:

Quote:

Why is the region being hit so badly by cloudbursts? This monsoon season has so far seen at least four major deadly cloudbursts, including in Uttarakhand, India, where video captured the moment when village buildings were swept down a mountain, and in Buner, in the Hindu Kush mountain range in Pakistan, where more than 200 people died after at least 150 mm of rain fell within an hour. S.D. Sanap, a scientist with the India Meteorological Department’s Pune office, said such cloudburst events were becoming more frequent in the western Himalayas, which run across India and into Pakistan, but pinning the rise on a single cause was not easy. The cloudburst events on both sides of the border were triggered the same way: very moist monsoon air, upslope winds, and storms that stalled over valleys, said Moetasim Ashfaq, a weather expert based in the US. If a cloudburst happens over flat land, the rainfall spreads over a wide area, so the impact is less severe, said Pradeep Dangol, a senior hydrology research associate at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, based in Nepal. But in steep mountain valleys, the rain is concentrated into narrow streams and slopes, with the potential to trigger flash floods and landslides, he said.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1932076

Pretty clear then that AGW is the driver of meteorological events and conditions that can cause cloudbursts and melting of glaciers/icesheets.[/quote]

"Punjab is facing its worst floods since 1988, with over 1,300 villages submerged. Rough estimates suggest the scale of agricultural damage could be staggering — approximately 3 lakh acres (120,000 hectares) of paddy and other crops submerged just before harvest."

...

"Northwest India, including Punjab, reported 265 mm of rainfall in August — the highest for the region since 2001 and the 13th highest since 1901. Between June 1 and August 30, Punjab received 443 mm—already exceeding the total average for the entire monsoon season (June–September), which is around 440 mm."

https://www.news18.com/explainers/why-punjab-is-facing-its-worst-floods-since-1988-the-damage-causes-history-explained-ws-kl-9542935.html

Oh only since 1998, but less than 1901. I guess AGW was rampant in 1901 also. ;)

Punjab population 1988 - 19,100,000
Punjab population  2023 - 31,700,000

More hard surfaces - houses, roads - cause more run-off. more run-off causes floods.

AGW? seems unlikely. ;)

lee wrote on Sep 7^th, 2025 at 8:04pm:

According to JM, Board bans are somehow completely different. Like they are a pseudo ban. ;)

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 8^th, 2025 at 6:15pm:

The problem with AGW isn’t just warmer days and nights. It means: 1. Glaciers and ice sheets melt raising sea levels 2. The top layers of sea water warm and as they warm they expand increasing sea level rise 3. Dries vegetation more so making the possibility and scale of wildfires. We don’t have an Environment board so we have not read here about fierce fires in California, Portugal, France, Greece etc. 4. Interferes with agricultural practices and yield. 5. Thaws out the tundra releasing methane which increases AGW. 6. More moisture and more warmth in the atmosphere causes fiercer storms and rainfall. Here in Critters and Gardens, in the absence of an Environment board, you can read how half a billion people have been displaced by cloudbursts and melting glaciers in Pakistan and India.

1. Sea levels have been rising since the last ice age. The technology is not fite for purpose. The satellite era measuring instruments have a native accuracy of of about 2.5cm. No way to calculate, accurately, the SLR.

2. The top layer of the sea water that is warmed is about 1-2mm.

"The sea-surface microlayer (SML) is the boundary interface between the atmosphere and ocean, covering about 70% of the Earth’s surface. Gases, heat, and particles entering (or leaving) the ocean need to pass the microlayer. Its thickness is equivalent to a human hair, but can grow to a thicker biofilm in the presence of surface-blooming cyanobacteria."

https://schmidtocean.org/cruise-log-post/skimming-the-surface/

3. The fires that are mentioned are largely arson attacks. not AGW.
NASA says that less land is being burned overall.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-in-fires

4. Agricultural yields have been increasing, although some years are better than others, and always have been. Statista, FAO, World review etc.

5. Methane is measured in dry air in a lab, nowhere else. Its effect is compared to CO2 on an equal weight ratio. However the methane is measured in ppb (parts per billion) and CO2 in PPM (parts per Million) ], nowhere even near the same weight.

6. The IPCC says there is mixed evidence of more rainfall and fiercer storms, floods etc.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter12.pdf

Page 90

Quote:

[quote] Super Nova wrote on Aug 29th, 2025 at 11:24pm: UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 18th, 2025 at 8:25pm: No alcoholics I know are pot smokers. And vice versa. Well good news Subby. Monk admitted he has a few plants. So, which is it? He smokes up? Or he drinks? Cannot be both.

Not true, you just don't do both on the same day.

Out of pot, hit the piss.
[/quote]

Very few pot smokers drink alcohol, and vice versa. I recall a staff party where a young guy went and smoked pot out with the adults. He went back in and started drinking alcohol. Not even an hour later, he was throwing up in the beer garden and just about passed out.

The druggos I know do not drink. They are reluctant to be part of the drinking crew at parties.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 9^th, 2025 at 10:28am:

Just at a nice time we have a column discussing whether raw data not adjusted data would show less warming. It shows more. The column discusses a lot of changes over time: at sea changing from buckets of sea water being hauled up and the temperature of the sea level water being taken, to changes in land like time of observation and mercury thermometers being changed for electronic thermistor types. A good, fairly detailed description easy to read. BTW—raw data show MORE warming! https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-raw-temperature-deal

So from the linked paper -

"Reality is more mundane: we’ve changed the way we’ve measured temperatures a number of times over the past 250 years, scientists are trying to account for these changes, and the corrections we make to the record only have a modest impact on global temperatures."

HMM, trying to account over different systems. That can only mean thet don't know, otherwise it would be "have accounted for". Of course we don't know the accuracy of all those early temperature instruments, handmade, each with their own biases.

"Let's dive into how ocean temperature measurements have changed over time as an example. Prior to the early-to-mid 1900s, sailors used to toss buckets over the side of wooden ships, pull those buckets up, and stick a thermometer in to measure sea surface temperature. But it turns out that evaporation cools water as the bucket is being pulled up, so the deck height of the ship and whether the bucket was made of wood or canvas could change the resulting temperature measurements by a few tenths of a degree C."

Actually it is woese than that. The SST is a few mm thick, how did a sailor know when the bucket got to the correct depth?

"Once wooden ships with sails were replaced by modern vessels, temperature measurements were taken in the engine room intakes (where water is pulled in to cool the engine). These were more accurate than bucket-based measurements but – engine rooms being warm – tended to be slightly warmer than actual sea surface temperatures. In recent decades, ship-based measurements have largely been replaced by autonomous buoys that float around the ocean taking measurements, and send their data up to satellites."

The first part is true, the second about satellites not so much. The accuracy of the senso=rs is about 2.5C, good enough for government work. Multiple readings will still have the same inaccuracies +/-, you can't average them out.


"If you ignore changes in instrumentation and just slap everything together into a single record, you end up with a biased result: spurious warming when we switched from buckets to ship engine room measurements in the mid-20th century, and spurious cooling over the last few decades as we transitioned to buoy measurements. It's easy to prove this, as records from just one type of instrument show broad agreement with each other (and other independent data from satellites or Argo floats)"

Broad agreement doesn't give certainty and the ARGO floats only came into being about 1998, they are floating - so they are not measuring the same water, they measure in degrees C, and yet the likes of Zeke then do a lot of computation to get to zettajoules, which is only a small fraction of One degree C.

"A shift from liquid in glass thermometers to electronic thermistors in the 1980s-2000s introduced a cooling bias of about 0.5C in max temperature readings due differences in instrumentation that shows up clearly in side-by-side comparisons, as well as a slight warming bias (~0.1C to 0.2C) in minimum temperatures likely associated with a move closer to buildings in some cases for power hookups."

Not quite true. The electronic thermistors have a much faster response time than liquid-in-glass. They try to overcome that by dampening the readings and according to the WMO handbook should only be read a limited number of times per minute. Of course, many of these at airports are located near taxiways etc. And people who have walked across the tarmac to or from the terminal can attest to the warmth of a turning jet hundreds of metres away.


"One of the most effective ways that researchers have used to detect and correct for biases in land stations (which, unlike ocean records, have the advantage of being stationary) is through neighbor comparisons."

Sometimes up to 100's of kilometres away. And anybody who has driven in Australia can attest to the differing temperatures much closer than that. But again good enough for government work.

Well I am going to call it quits there, there are too many uncertainties to believe this tripe. ;)

“People underestimate the power of models. Observational evidence is not very useful.” – John Mitchell, UK MET, circa 2011

lee wrote on Sep 9^th, 2025 at 2:43pm:

“People underestimate the power of models. Observational evidence is not very useful.” – John Mitchell, UK MET, circa 2011

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

I offer to undo his ban in this Environment MRB if
he does the same for me with his Cats and Critters MRB and his Polanimal forum.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 9^th, 2025 at 3:35pm:

We REALLY should have an environment board. It would post and link to lots of articles, scientific papers, ABC/BBC programs, NYT, Guardian and so on articles. This would raise our SEO or at least slow its fall. Five people drown in NSW floods and the hapless idiot modding what is, in name only, our Environment board, posts, not about the floods, the drownings, any link to AGW causing more rain etc etc. No, the moron posts some completely bland, boring, meaningless YouTube about some allegedly funny animal. Because we do not get all these posts citing authoritative papers and articles our SEO rankings, according to FD himself, are plunging and post count with it. the "science" untiul he does not. Weather Attribution Time to do something.

And now the Guardian, NYT etc are authoritive sources? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

AGW causing more rain? Not according to the IPCC AR6 The Scientific Basis Chapter 12, Table 12.12 Page 90. JM likes to use  the "science" until he does not. Weather Attribution Models are not science. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 9^th, 2025 at 11:38pm:

Heatwaves can accelerate aging: https://www.the-scientist.com/heat-waves-could-speed-up-aging-73310

Form the "paper"

"To do so, Cui Guo, an environmental epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, and her colleagues analyzed data from more than 24,000 adults in Taiwan, over a period of 15 years (2008–2022). They obtained results of various medical tests, such as inflammation, cholesterol, diverse organ functions, and blood pressure, among others, to calculate each individual’s biological age. They compared this to the adults’ chronological age to obtain their biological age acceleration. The team also acquired a history of heat wave exposures in the two years before a person’s medical screening visit, which included measures such as sum of temperatures across all heat wave days, total number of heat wave events, and duration of each spell.

Guo and her colleagues observed that people who experienced higher cumulative temperatures also displayed a corresponding increase in biological age acceleration. With each interquartile range increase in the cumulative heat exposure, aging accelerated by 0.023–0.031 years. "

So they looked at a period of 15 years of people naturally growing older, and found people could have a biological age 11 days more. Strangely they did not report more deaths,

Does that mean that people can live longer with higher temperatures?

But we saw with COVID how accurate epidemiologists were. ;)

[quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1757377186/3#3 date=1757479531]Is lee setting himself up to be the new Environment mod after Booby gets the flick? He has posted three new threads just recently.

Of course, lee would be a bigger disaster than Booby. In fact, lee shares blame for the failure of Environment and OzPol. Any thread on the consequences of AGW appears and lee hoses it down and kills it. The guy hates change and so hates talk of AGW and its consequences.

But at least lee recognises that Booby can’t last as Environment mod for much longer.[/quote]


But what of course he doesn't say is I use science to beclown him. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 10^th, 2025 at 3:20pm:

lee must have seen my warning. His post in the so–called Environment board, that he uses science to refute the scientific papers I quote and link, is laughable.

Poor JM considers NYT, BBC, ABC The Guardian etc as scientific papers. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Any scientific papers he does look at, he does not scrutinise. Merely accepts them as true.  A scientist is a sceptic. ;)

lee wrote on Sep 10^th, 2025 at 5:47pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 10th, 2025 at 3:20pm: lee must have seen my warning. His post in the so–called Environment board, that he uses science to refute the scientific papers I quote and link, is laughable. Poor JM considers NYT, BBC, ABC The Guardian etc as scientific papers. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk doesn't know.    ::)

I offer to undo his ban in this Environment MRB if
he does the same for me with his Cats and Critters MRB and his Polanimal forum.

Good to see him reading me. ;)

Still bleating about the guardian and the ABC.

But he explains it as I don't read the papers. Strange, when I point out their deficiencies, apparently without reading. I must be way smarter than I assumed. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 11^th, 2025 at 9:31am:

In a paper published in June in Geophysical Research Letters, scientists analyzed 24 years of satellite data on global cloud coverage and how much of the sun’s energy clouds reflect away. It reports a troubling decrease in highly reflective clouds in the regions of our planet where such clouds mostly form: the stormy mid-latitude zones of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and the tropical stormy regions around the Equator. Cloud cover in these regions appears to be shrinking by about 0.9 percent to 1.3 percent per decade.

Yes. The various Clean Air Acts are doing their job. Not that you would rtead about it in the "authorative" New York Times. ;)

Things like low sulphur bunker fuel in ship, less particulates.

"Science | AAAS

› content › article › paradox-cleaner-air-now-adding-global-warming
In a paradox, cleaner air is now adding to global warming/"

Strangely the search engine doesn't seem to find the paper.

Quote:

“It still occurs only on one island. If a severe cyclone went through that one site and felled a whole lot of its important trees, and blew the bats off their roosts into the ocean, it could be gone in a second.” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/15/scientists-fear-this-cute-and-chonky-flying-fox-could-be-one-cyclone-away-from-extinction

So it would take -
1. A severe cyclone has to go through that site, not impossible, and
2. It has to go through that one site, also not impossible, and
3.It has to fell "a whole lot" of important trees, becoming less likely, and
4. It has to blow all the bats off their roosts, leaving no breeding pairs, now into the region of hyperbole. ::)

But from the Guardian, one of JM's "authoritative" sources, which seems to accept anything that might be regarded as science. No plea about AGW though, ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2025 at 11:24am:

Quote: An Annual Blast of Pacific Cold Water Did Not Occur, Alarming Scientists [/size] [size=12]The cold water upwell, which is vital to marine life, did not materialize for the first time on record. Researchers are trying to figure out why. According to the article Each year between January and April, a blob of cold water rises from the depths of the Gulf of Panama to the surface, playing an essential role in supporting marine life in the region. But this year, it never arrived. “It came as a surprise,” said Ralf Schiebel, a paleoceanographer at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry who studies the region. “We’ve never seen something like this before.” The blob is as much as 10 degrees Celsius colder than the surface water.  In Fahrenheit terms, the water would be 18 degrees colder than the surface water. That cold water is also rich in nutrients from decomposing matter that falls to the ocean floor, providing food for local fisheries and wildlife. Dr. Schiebel was one of the scientists who recently documented the lack of this yearly upwelling in a paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and identified a likely culprit: The lack of strong trade winds, which typically blow across Panama and kick off the dry season in January. When the trade winds reach the Gulf of Panama they push hot surface water away from the coast, which makes room for cold water to rise from the deep. Steven Paton, one of the paper’s co-authors, runs a large environmental monitoring program at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. The record he helps maintain shows the upwelling has taken place annually for at least 40 years. With that data and other long term records, “we can very clearly say something very unusual happened that we need to pay attention to,” he said. As AGW keeps warming the world and its oceans we are going to see more unprecedented events. That is simple logic—you can’t change a system and expect it to work as usual. A complex system of high and low pressure control trade winds: [quote]Trade winds, like the ones that drive the cold upwelling in the Gulf of Panama, typically form when air moves from high pressure to low pressure systems. But this year Panama saw only a quarter of the usual dry season trade winds and when they did emerge, it was only for a short period of time. The Bermuda-Azores High is a high pressure system that moves around the Atlantic Ocean, affecting seasonal weather patterns across Europe, Africa and the Americas. A separate, low pressure system, known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone, wraps around the Equator and moves south of Panama in winter. This southward movement, in combination with the difference in pressure from these two systems, causes the force that drives Panama’s dry season trade winds. La Niña, the cool phase of an oscillating cycle of water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, may have shifted the position of the low pressure system. Hot ocean surface temperatures may have also affected the strength of the two atmospheric systems. But the impact of these factors is unclear until more research is done, the researchers said.

Original paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2512056122#supplementary-materials

Article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/climate/pacific-cold-water-upwelling.html

Why the HELL doesn’t the high school dropout cover stuff like this in what is supposed to be the Environment board but isn’t? This lack of information and links is what is driving the OzPol SEO ranking down.[/quote]

Now a one off event, so far, is a symptom of AGW. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
And for the first time in 40 years, does not sound like for the first time on record. But maybe records don't go back that far.  Which doesn't of itself make it alarming.  Neither does really small print. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Size 12 usually looks like this, size 6 like this. ;D ;D ;D ;D

But researchers don't understand why nut JM does.  ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2025 at 8:21pm:

Quote: Warning of climate breakdown and soaring heat deaths a ‘wake up call’ for Australia, PM says National climate risk assessment report finds heat-related deaths would surge Quote: 450% in Sydney if global heating surpasses 3C

"Heat, cold, and temperature variability (TV) could increase mortality in Australia.
•
Mortality risk from any temperature exposure did not increase or decrease over time.
•
Cold posed the greatest mortality risk and cased the largest mortality burden.
•
TV posed the lowest mortality risk but cased more mortality burden than heat.
•
Heat, cold, and TV together accounted for about 6.0% of all deaths."

...
"There was no clear temporal pattern in mortality risk associated with any temperature exposure in Australia. Heat, cold and temperature variability together resulted in 42,414 deaths during the study period, accounting for about 6.0% of all deaths. Most of attributable deaths were due to cold (61.4%), and noticeably, contribution from temperature variability (28.0%) was greater than that from heat (10.6%).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969718340774

Proof that JM and Albo wouldn't know the difference between their arse and their albo. ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_62230_SLI.png

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 21^st, 2025 at 11:23pm:

Quote: NASA satellites spot brand-new island in Alaska formed by melting glacier Satellite images reveal a new island in Alaska's Alsek Lake, formed as retreating glaciers reshape the landscape. AGW is melting sea ice and land based glaciers and ice sheets. This is undeniable. [quote]NASA satellite imagery has revealed a new island off Alaska's coast that emerged after long-standing glacial ice melted, isolating a small mountain that was once part of the mainland. The island sits in Alsek Lake, where the Alsek Glacier has been steadily thinning and flooding the region with meltwater. Two Landsat images — captured on July 5, 1984 by the TM (Thematic Mapper) on Landsat 5 and on Aug. 6, 2025 by the OLI-2 (Operational Land Imager-2) on Landsat 9 — show the transformation in striking detail, according to a statement from NASA. Alsek Glacier once wrapped around a small mountain known as Prow Knob. Over the past four decades, both arms of the glacier have retreated more than 3 miles (5 kilometers), carving out a proglacial lake in the process. The recent imagery confirms the glacier has now completely separated from Prow Knob, which is surrounded by water and officially an island, according to the statement.

https://www.space.com/science/climate-change/nasa-satellites-spot-brand-new-island-in-alaska-formed-by-melting-glacier-photos

[/quote]


Ah, it is AGW everyone knows glaciers etc are static. ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2025 at 3:56pm:

Ah, it is AGW everyone knows glaciers etc are static. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk doesn't know.     ::)

quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1758632781/0#0 date=1758632781]
Quote:

Dangerous climate change threatens Northern Australia’s big ‘food bowl’ dreams Australia’s worrying future under climate change was laid bare last week when the first National Climate Risk Assessment was released. It revealed extreme heat, fires, floods, droughts and coastal inundation already threatens lives and livelihoods – and will wreak further havoc in coming decades. Much media attention focused on the effects in the continent’s south, where most Australians live. But the assessment found Northern Australia will be hardest hit on many fronts, including extreme heat. This has major implications. Big plans are afoot to turn Northern Australia into Asia’s “food bowl”, as part of broader development for the region. It would involve building large-scale irrigation, dam and water infrastructure to increase agricultural production, create jobs and boost local economies. But any discussion about transforming Northern Australia must confront the climate hazards threatening the region’s prosperity.

I have not had a detailed, in depth look at the National Climate Risk Assessment but I will and report here. We know from State of the Climate reports that the north will get hotter and wetter.



Quote:

What’s the food bowl idea? Northern Australia comprises roughly 53% of Australia’s land mass. Turning the region into a food bowl would involve irrigating savannas and other ecosystems across northern parts of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland. The concept dates back decades, but gained momentum in 2015 when the Abbott government released a national white paper on developing Northern Australia.

But AGW is going to potentially cause major problems to this concept—read the rest of the article.

https://theconversation.com/dangerous-climate-change-threatens-northern-australias-big-food-bowl-dreams-265727[/quote]

Ah the models. Bow down before the models.

Interesting fact - Cyclone intensity is a function of the differences bewtween the high and low pressure. In a warming world the difference NARROWS, so would mean the intensity would drop. Sea Surface Temperatures have been cited as a possible intensifier, but SST's are limited to about 30C, before convective cooling.


Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 24^th, 2025 at 7:45am:

Tropical cyclones Ragasa and Yasi represent one dangerous threat to a northern Australian food bowl. Ragasa being significantly stronger than Yasi indicates AGW is making tropical cyclones stronger.

True supposition. Haiyan was stronger than Ragasa. So according to JM that means no AGW. ;)


Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 24^th, 2025 at 6:09am:

It was worse than Yasi, HUGE gusts!

Ragasa - Wind gusts 295Km/h

Haiyan - wind gusts 379Km/h

;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 26^th, 2025 at 7:57am:

Quote: China has announced its first target to cut emissions in real terms. What does it mean for Australia? With China accounting for nearly a third of the world’s total emissions, any cuts it achieves will make a substantial difference for the world – and for fossil fuel exports OUR fossil fuel exports—coal and LNG! Quote: Anything China does on energy and climate change is very big news. Its plans ripple around the world, whether that’s in changing the demand for fossil fuels or affecting the impacts on the planet from global heating. On Thursday, Australia woke to the news that China’s president, Xi Jinping, had told the United Nations that for the first time his country was setting a target to cut – in absolute terms – its greenhouse gas emissions. In a video address, Xi said China’s emissions would fall by 7% to 10% from their peak. When that peak happens he didn’t say, but some analysts think it may have already passed. Sat beside a Chines flag and before a backdrop depicting a mountain range, Chinese president Xi Jinping delivers a video message, dressed in a dark blue suit and wearing a grey tie Anthony Albanese had a lukewarm response to Xi’s announcement, saying it was “good that there is progress being made”, but “of course [Australia] would like there to be more”. China’s emissions are about 29% of the global total – more than twice that of the United States, the world’s second-biggest emitter.

From the Guardian of course.


"I have a plan, I can't tell you when it will happen, but trust me." ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Quote:

China’s emissions are about 29% of the global total – more than twice that of the United States, the world’s second-biggest emitter.

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 26^th, 2025 at 1:09pm:

According to the Saturday Paper the environmental threat to Australia is horrific with the government not releasing the report on this. True? Dunno, guess so.

So the Climate Risk Assessment report wasn't about the environment. Oh dear. ;D ;D ;D

And the New York Times -


Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 4^th, 2025 at 12:42am:

The new study found: Quote: Based on those 242 wildfires, the researchers found the number of disastrous wildfires had increased more than fourfold from 1980 to 2023. Nearly half of the fires, 43 percent, were in the last 10 years of the record. Additionally, there were 43 wildfire disasters that cost more than $1 billion in that same period. (The Trump administration said in May it would stop tracking billion-dollar disasters that occur in the United States.) The findings contrast with those of the 2016 paper, now not even a decade old. But Cristina Santín, a wildfire scientist with the Spanish National Research Council and an author of that earlier paper, was not surprised that the new study had found a different answer from hers. She was glad to see an updated look at trends in damaging wildfires. “This is proof that things are getting worse,” Dr. Santín said. “We need to adapt to live with fire. This is our reality, and it’s not going anywhere.” The disastrous fires were largely clustered in the western part of North America, southern Europe and southern Australia, and mostly in affluent areas with high property values — but not exclusively. Wildfire disasters also struck in the tropics and the far north, mostly driven by unusually strong droughts, and in more rural regions like Nepal that don’t often get Western media coverage. They hit every continent except Antarctica. They found that the fires were closely associated with “fire weather,” which includes strong, dry winds, high temperatures and drought. Other research has found that fire weather is on the rise as a result of climate change. “It’s clear that these events are driven by extreme weather,” Dr. Cunningham said. Climate change isn’t solely responsible for all the disastrous wildfires in the study, he stressed, but “it sets the stage” for them. “Climate change is creating more opportunities for a catastrophic fire,” he said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/climate/wildfire-damage-increasing.html

And then NASA has  a reduction in area burned 2003 to 2015.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-in-fires

or -

"However, some observers have noted that globally, the amount of area burned by wildfires each year has gone down over the last few decades.

If you look at statistics from the Global Wildfire Information System shown in the chart here, since the early 2000s, there has been a noticeable decline in the annual extent of land affected by wildfires.

https://ourworldindata.org/wildfires

And of course comparing wildfires to cost? Population increases, housing increases, goods owned increases and cost are expected to go down? ::)

And what wasn't included in  that report by JM.v-

"Cunningham et al. examined data about the global distribution, frequency, and associated climate conditions of the most lethal and costly wildfire disasters from 1980 to 2023, finding that disaster risk was highest in regions near relatively affluent, populated areas, and that the frequency of economically disastrous wildfires increased sharply after 2015

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 21^st, 2025 at 2:38pm:

Quote: Picture a map of the world. The vast subcontinent of India spans roughly 3.2 million square kilometres. An area larger than that burned in wildfires across the globe in the past year alone. From thousands of bushfires in Australia, to the deadly Los Angeles wildfires, to record-breaking blazes ravaging the Amazon and Congo, our planet has been burning. Is this devastation attributable to climate change? Scientists from around the world worked together to find out. They used satellite imagery and computer models to confirm the answer, and have now published their findings in a landmark study. That answer? Yes. The climate crisis is fuelling Earth’s extreme wildfires. But the scientists also want you to know – it’s not too late to act. Quote is from The Conversation email. On to the article. Link: https://theconversation.com/the-climate-crisis-is-fuelling-extreme-fires-across-the-planet-267626 [quote]Human-caused climate change increased the area burned by wildfires, called bushfires in Australia, by a magnitude of 30 in some regions in the world. Our snapshot offers important new evidence of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme fires. And it serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions. The evidence is clear – climate change is making fires worse.Human-caused climate change increased the area burned by wildfires, called bushfires in Australia, by a magnitude of 30 in some regions in the world. Our snapshot offers important new evidence of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme fires. And it serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions. The evidence is clear – climate change is making fires worse.

You can just picture lee, can’t you? Quivering, ready to jump into action. Will his fatuous “More from JM” thread in what is supposed to be the Environment MRB go over 13 pages of fatuous crap? Who cares?

The article is based on this report:
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/5377/2025/


[/quote]


From Copernicus -

"During the 2024–2025 fire season, fire-related carbon (C) emissions totalled 2.2 Pg C, 9 % above average and the sixth highest on record since 2003, despite below-average global burned area (BA)."

What's that not the highest yearly area burned?

"Our attribution analyses show that climate change made extreme fire weather in Northeast Amazonia 30–70 times more likely, increasing BA roughly 4-fold compared to a scenario without climate change. In the Pantanal–Chiquitano, fire weather was 4–5 times more likely, with 35-fold increases in BA."


Oh Their "attribution analyses"? Oh dear.

"Our models project that events on the scale of 2024–2025 will become up to 57 %, 34 %, and 50 % more frequent than in the modern era in Northeast Amazonia, the Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, respectively, under a medium–high scenario (SSP370) by 2100."

There are only 232 mentions of models in the paper. ;D ;D ;D ;D

poor  JM gets his knockers knickers in a twist again, over the models. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 21^st, 2025 at 4:49pm:

Of course, I doubt the bonehead even read the very lengthy Abstract to the paper I cited.

Poor JM. obviously didn't read what I wrote based on the paper ;D ;D ;D ;D

Models all the way down. ;)

lee wrote on Oct 21^st, 2025 at 4:56pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 21st, 2025 at 4:49pm: Of course, I doubt the bonehead even read the very lengthy Abstract to the paper I cited. Poor JM. obviously didn't read what I wrote based on the paper ;D ;D ;D ;D Models all the way down. ;)

Monk doesn't know.    ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2025 at 12:09pm:

We evaluated the causes and predictability of four extreme wildfire episodes from the 2024–2025 fire season, including in Northeast Amazonia (January–March 2024), the Pantanal–Chiquitano border regions of Brazil and Bolivia (August–September 2024), Southern California (January 2025), and the Congo Basin (July–August 2024).

Meanwhile -

"Brazil Intensifies Efforts to Identify Arsonists Behind Pantanal Fires "

So the fires were not caused by weather extremes but arsonists. It seems if it is published, JM will accept all, without checking.

Arson is a major cause of wildfires, and yet apparently it was not considered. Indeed, it doesn't rate a mention in the "peer-reviewed" paper. How strange is that. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2025 at 2:37pm:

Desperate lee didn’t read the abstract or the paper or even the The Conversation article. The clown just comments on what I post. Guess reading science makes his head hurt.

Poor JM. He just doesn't get it. My comments come from his Copernicus paper.

It must be really sad for him to bluster like this. As if those who want can't go to the paper and do word searches and do word searches for "models" for "arson" etc.

They even use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways, with SSP 5.85 making its usual appearance. Socio-Economic Pathways are used in loss calculations, that's where the Economic comes in, it has no part in wildfires increase or decrease. If more people move to a fire prone area their economic footprint expands in that area. people buy things. They, hopefully, pay insurance, insurance goes up, the cost goes up. Nothing to with the fires. ::)..That's what happens when you only look through the AGW lens. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 29^th, 2025 at 1:05pm:

Quote: Rising heat kills one person a minute worldwide, major report reveals Biggest analysis of its kind finds millions are dying each year because of failure to tackle climate crisis Rising global heat is now killing one person a minute around the world, a major report on the health impact of the climate crisis has revealed. It says the world’s addiction to fossil fuels also causes toxic air pollution, wildfires and the spread of diseases such as dengue fever, and millions each year are dying owing to the failure to tackle global heating. The report, the most comprehensive to date, says the damage to health will get worse with leaders such as Donald Trump ripping up climate policies and oil companies continuing to exploit new reserves. Governments gave out $2.5bn a day in direct subsidies to fossil fuels companies in 2023, the researchers found, while people lost about the same amount because of high temperatures preventing them from working on farms and building sites. Reduced coal burning has saved about 400 lives a day in the last decade, the report says, and renewable energy production is rising fast. But the experts say a healthy future is impossible if fossil fuels continue to be financed at current rates.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01919-1/abstract

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/29/rising-heat-kills-one-person-a-minute-worldwide-lancet-countdown

Actually the study is paywalled. The text comes from The Guardian.

This is the limit of the Lancet article -

"Driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, climate change is increasingly claiming lives and harming people's health worldwide. Mean annual temperatures exceeded 1·5°C above those of pre-industrial times for the first time in 2024. Despite ever more urgent calls to tackle climate change, greenhouse gas emissions rose to record levels that same year. Climate change is increasingly destabilising the planetary systems and environmental conditions on which human life depends."

What is carefully NOT said in the post is the reduced number of people dying from cold.

"Non-optimal temperatures are now considered among the leading risk factors of mortality worldwide.1 A global analysis showed that 9·4% of all deaths can be attributed to both cold and hot non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to about 5 million deaths.2 In most epidemiological studies, excess cold deaths far outnumber heat deaths. In that same global analysis, of the 9·4% attributable temperature-related deaths, 8·5% (range 6·2–10·5%) were cold-related and only 0·9% (range 0·6–1·4%) were heat-related,2 which corresponds to approximately 4·6 million deaths from cold and about 489 000 from heat, a ratio of roughly 9:1 of cold versus heat. This pattern is also consistent in regional studies.3–5 In this Comment we summarise why this pattern emerges and address what this implies for future temperatures and related mortality under climate change."

...

"The bottom line, however, is not whether heat or cold is more dangerous, but how we can save the most lives, especially as the climate continues to change. Nowadays, given the current climate trends and limited success in climate mitigation, the current epidemiological literature strongly suggests that an urgent focus on heat-related deaths is well justified. "

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(25)00054-3/fulltext

So ten time more deaths from cold. Sounds like a warming world win, to me.

BTW - 3 references to be from the world weather attribution group. 

4 references to the Guardian. So much for peer-review.  ;)

I see that social loser is calling you a liar in C&C Board.
No-one reads his posts on this Forum, beyond his enemies that he makes.
He just doesn't relate to this Forum anymore.

Jasin wrote on Oct 30^th, 2025 at 4:06pm:

I see that social loser is calling you a liar in C&C Board. No-one reads his posts on this Forum, beyond his enemies that he makes. He just doesn't relate to this Forum anymore.

It's ASPD:

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1617167598/1380#1384

It's the result of him being, as Gordon has revealed, that he is a lonely old homosexual and as I like to point out - with the brain of a redneck.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 31^st, 2025 at 8:03am:

[quote]An E.P.A. Plan to Kill a Major Climate Rule Is Worrying Business Leaders Some carmakers and energy executives say the plan would trigger costly litigation and spur individual states to create a patchwork of tighter rules. The Environmental Protection Agency is promising to erase a scientific finding that underpins climate regulations nationwide. But some business leaders said they are wary that the move could lead to a costly legal quagmire. The rule, known as the “endangerment finding,” is the conclusion by the E.P.A. that greenhouse gases endanger public health and therefore must be regulated by the federal government. Lee Zeldin, the E.P.A. administrator, has said the agency would repeal the finding, claiming that the burden to industries of cutting greenhouse gas emissions is more harmful than a warming planet. And yet carmakers, electric utilities and even the oil and gas industry have asked the E.P.A. to tread carefully. If the federal government were to stop regulating greenhouse gases, it could clear the way for states and municipalities to sue companies for damages from climate change. And it could spur individual states to come up with their own pollution limits, creating a patchwork of regulations. Environmental groups have also promised to sue the E.P.A. if it repeals the finding, leading to more uncertainty for businesses. “This is something that the vast majority of industry didn’t ask for and doesn’t want,” said Zach Friedman, the senior director of federal policy at Ceres, a nonprofit group that submitted a letter from 59 companies and investors opposing the E.P.A. plan. Brigit Hirsch, a spokeswoman for the E.P.A., said in a statement that rescinding the endangerment finding would “unlock regulatory clarity like never before” and said the finding had led to heavy costs, particularly for the auto industry. “We live in a democracy, and as such private companies are welcome to make decisions as they see fit,” she said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/25/climate/endangerment-finding-auto-energy-lawsuits.html

So nothing about the Endangerment Ruling at all. It is based on the falsified Linear No Threshold junk science. It is also based on the worthless climate models.

The Endangerment Ruling, being looked at by among others quantum physicists, climatologists, and statisticians looks not at the earth observatory stations, subject to gross mismanagement, but the troposphere where the models predict the tropospheric hotspot. The satellites find no evidence of a tropospheric hotspot, so therefore the climate models are debunked. Observations trump theory. ;)


With the number of papers being withdrawn expanding, it needs statisticians on the paper reviews. ;)

Jasin wrote on Oct 30^th, 2025 at 8:33pm:

It's the result of him being, as Gordon has revealed, that he is a lonely old homosexual and as I like to point out - with the brain of a redneck.

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Monk's education was from reading trivial pursuit cards, watching Sale of the Century and Xmas bangers.

Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 31^st, 2025 at 5:03pm:

Paint me cool: scientists reveal roof coating that can reduce surface temperatures up to 6C on hot days

They have been on the market for years.

So not new. ::)

And quoting the Guardian about the new, improved heatwave deaths, with no mention of lower deaths by cold. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 6^th, 2025 at 8:00pm:

Well, we knew it was. UAH6 to end October 2025: Quote: The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2025 was +0.53 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, unchanged from the September, 2025 value. The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through October 2025) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans). https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/11/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-october-2025-0-53-deg-c/

https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2025_v6.1_20x9-1536x691.jpg


Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 6^th, 2025 at 8:20pm:

Of course, we knew AGW was continuing, extreme heat continues as do wildfires.

So let's see. AGW is so bad it is cooler than 1998. 28 years. ;)

And of course wildfires continue, so do arsonists. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jasin wrote on Oct 31^st, 2025 at 3:36pm:

Monk's education was from reading trivial pursuit cards, watching Sale of the Century and Xmas bangers.

Monk doesn't know -

he was a high school drop out.

Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 9^th, 2025 at 12:12pm:

While sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to be very high, throughout the month of October daily temperatures were tracking close to those of October 2015, the fourth warmest month on record. The average SST for 60°S–60°N for October 2025 was 20.54°C, 0.34°C above the 1991-2020 average, placing it third highest on record for October, 0.24°C and 0.14°C lower than the values of 2023 and 2024, respectively, and just 0.02°C above October 2015.

https://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/Copernica_Oct_2025_sea_surface_temps.jpg

What JM doesn't say is the increased SST's since the Hunga Tonga eruption and subsequent decline as postulated at the time. ;)

AGW the only lens through which we must look. ;D ;D ;D

Only 3 weeks till summer and we have snow on Mt Macedon and Mt Baw Baw -
both close to Melbourne:


https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/central/mount-macedon

Central for Tuesday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers,
most likely in the morning and afternoon with possible small hail.
Snow falling above 800 metres. (Mt Macedon altitude 1,010 meters)
Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.


https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/w-and-s-gippsland/baw-baw

West and South Gippsland for Tuesday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers,
most likely in the morning and afternoon with possible small hail.
Snow falling above 800 metres.
Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 25 to 35 km/h before dawn
then tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Close to Monk's place?

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/tas/lower-derwent/mount-wellington


Mount Wellington Weather

Tomorrow

Snow tending to rain

-3 ° C     to    +3 ° C

South East for Tuesday. Partly cloudy. High chance of showers.
Snow falling above 400 metres, rising to 600 metres during the afternoon.
The chance of a thunderstorm in the early afternoon.
Possible small hail. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h tending
NW/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early morning then becoming NW 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.

Well - how about that?

Less than 3 weeks till summer and we have snow.

Where's all the global warming that Monk was trying to scare us with?

Melbourne and Hobart are cold and wet.
Monk has a tropical dog - the poor thing.  ::)

You can't blame JM for that. According to AGW theory, any temperature increase is proof of AGW, any decrease or snow is just weather. ;)

lee wrote on Nov 10^th, 2025 at 8:03pm:

You can't blame JM for that. According to AGW theory, any temperature increase is proof of AGW, any decrease or snow is just weather. ;)

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Bobby. wrote on Nov 10^th, 2025 at 6:29pm:

Only 3 weeks till summer and we have snow on Mt Macedon and Mt Baw Baw - both close to Melbourne: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/central/mount-macedon Central for Tuesday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon with possible small hail. Snow falling above 800 metres. (Mt Macedon altitude 1,010 meters) Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/w-and-s-gippsland/baw-baw West and South Gippsland for Tuesday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon with possible small hail. Snow falling above 800 metres. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 25 to 35 km/h before dawn then tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

Bobby. wrote on Nov 10^th, 2025 at 6:39pm:

Close to Monk's place? https://www.weatherzone.com.au/tas/lower-derwent/mount-wellington Mount Wellington Weather Tomorrow Snow tending to rain -3 ° C     to    +3 ° C South East for Tuesday. Partly cloudy. High chance of showers. Snow falling above 400 metres, rising to 600 metres during the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the early afternoon. Possible small hail. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h tending NW/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early morning then becoming NW 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.

Well - how about that?

Less than 3 weeks till summer and we have snow.

Where's all the global warming that Monk was trying to scare us with?

Melbourne and Hobart are cold and wet.
Monk has a tropical dog - the poor thing.    ::)

It snowed in Sydney once. Just two weeks from Xmas. I saw it. 1 foot thick.

Jasin wrote on Nov 10^th, 2025 at 8:41pm:

It snowed in Sydney once. Just two weeks from Xmas. I saw it. 1 foot thick.

Are you sure?


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-11/the-day-it-snowed-in-sydney/9743600

New South Wales' central west this morning woke to a dusting of snow — the first of 2018 — and while the white stuff seldom falls in Sydney, it has happened once before.

As the Harbour City shivered through its first taste of the cold weather last night and this morning, newspaper clippings from more than 180 years ago reveal today is, well, nothing.

Sunny Sydney and the sands of Bondi Beach have, in fact, once — and only once — been covered in snow.

During the "icy winter" of 1836, the thousands of convicts held in Hyde Park — and the British settlers in the then 48-year-old colonial outpost called Sydney — awoke to snow "nearly an inch deep" on June 28.

Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 11^th, 2025 at 9:51am:

The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than then anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown.

Suspected future losses are now a sign of AGW. ;)


Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 11^th, 2025 at 9:55am:

The amount of sea ice surrounding Antarctica has declined precipitously over the past decade.

"More so than the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extents are extremely variable, both seasonally and from year to year. In the past decade there have been record and near-record high extents, as well as record and near-record lows. The overall long-term trend (since 1979) is nearly flat."

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-climate-antarctic-sea-ice-extent  Dated 2025


Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 11^th, 2025 at 10:09am:

In this same model, the addition of meltwater to the surface ocean drives a projected 42% decline in Antarctic Bottom Water formation by 2050 in a high-warming scenario. ... "This evidence suggests that a rapid and substantial slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is already underway, with observations suggesting that modelled rates of future decline may be underestimated. " The result from models is not evidence of anything. Observations count. ;) [quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1762818687/3#3 date=1762820175]It is well recognized that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is prone to tipping dynamics.

Actually tipping points are an hypothesis, backed by nothing. Else the warmer periods that the earth has had would have tipped it. ;)

But I see the names Abrams and England attached. Alarmists writ large. ;D ;D ;D ;D