ProudKangaroo wrote on Oct 31
st, 2024 at 4:02pm:
The betting markets are only influenced by those who place bets and are very easy to manipulate should you have lots of money and need a metric to point to that shows what the general polling data isn't.
You have to ask yourself, who is placing the bets?
And, if this is the only metric you have telling you what you want to hear, should that worry you?
markets can indeed be wrong but like the share market, a surge is usually based on some sort of information. people dont set out to lose money.
one would think that 99 % of the people who are going to vote have already made up their minds.
it looks like a coin toss. it will be surprising if its a landslide.
trump has possibly won over some crucial votes by being a lot more active in visiting union sites etc
harris thinks that being "not trump" and a "small target" is the way to go.
my feeling is harris is far more likely to win if she comes out and persuades the market she is anti woke
she needs to come out and say that border security, energy security and the nuclear family are core values of hers.
if she does that convincingly, she wins
its astounding to me that she hasnt
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