Quote:The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under climate change and can lead to thousands of excess deaths.
The BoM Max and Min temperature distributions and their global counterparts demonstrate that not only have the night temperature distributions moved to the hot side they have developed a skew to the hot side—it doesn’t form a nice symmetrical bell curve anymore (by contrast, low temperatures are now more like the classic bell shape—any skew to the cold side has gone.)
Quote:ABSTRACT
Using extreme value statistics, here we show where regional temperature records are statistically likely to be exceeded, and therefore communities might be more at-risk. In 31% of regions examined, the observed daily maximum temperature record is exceptional. Climate models suggest that similar behaviour can occur in any region. In some regions, such as Afghanistan and parts of Central America, this is a particular problem - not only have they the potential for far more extreme heatwaves than experienced, but their population is growing and increasingly exposed because of limited healthcare and energy resources. We urge policy makers in vulnerable regions to consider if heat action plans are sufficient for what might come.
Do the authorities in those two regions have the resources to do anything about extreme heat?
Quote:INTRODUCTION
Record-breaking temperature extremes can cause severe impacts on society and the environment, as was seen in western North America in June 2021. Identifying which regions globally have perhaps been lucky not to have experienced higher temperature extremes so far is important and is the focus of this study. Often, regions are only prepared for events as extreme as they have already experienced, with planning initiated by past disasters. Policymakers and governments need to prepare for events beyond current records – particularly with trends caused by anthropogenic climate change enhancing the probability of extremes.
This is where planting trees on public and helping with big trees on private land, making roads, footpaths, roofs of a lighter color. In Adelaide, heat capital of Australia, BLACK bricks are being used on new units! Black! Lot of roofs are dark too, stupid! Sure there MIGHT be ceiling/wall insulation but you do EVERYTHING to keep residences, offices etc cool in increasingly hot summers!
Quote:RESULTS
WEST America heatwave, June 2021
In June 2021, western North America experienced a record-breaking heatwave. In Lytton, British Columbia, temperatures of 49.6 °C were observed on June 29th, breaking the previous record by almost 5 °C28. The heatwave was associated with an unusual circulation pattern, with a blocking anticyclone leading to a stagnant warm air mass. A rapid attribution study found the event was so far beyond what had been previously observed that it was deemed virtually impossible without climate chang
Blocking weather systems can make extreme weather hang around instead of moving. Usually these are high pressure systems, anticyclones.
The paper includes a table of regions most likely to experience extreme heat. Too large to reproduce here it is at
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37554-1/tables/1VERY surprised Adelaide is not in that table! Perhaps because Adelaide has experienced so many heat wave records already?
Worth reading this paper tho it gets a bit abstruse here and there!
. Still enough can be gleaned from it by a reader of average intelligence and education.
Many critters are in for a rough time. Humans will have it bad—what about unprotected animals in the fields? Can they find shade?
So let's look at these alarming figures. -
Australia, Queensland - up by 0.1C, population up projected 1.66. Nope doesn't seem drastic at all
PNG? In the tropics and according to CO2 theory the least affected area.
" As in30, we use ERA5, a reanalysis dataset, as a proxy for observations10 (see Methods)."
Say what, they don't use observations? Apparently re-analysis can do anything. And although Australia is mentioned in the table posted by JM, not ONE single reference in the paper.
Under "data availability" - "CanESM5 and MIROC6 data are available from the CMIP6 search interface (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/)."
You know CMIP6 group of models that run too hot. (Hausfather, Schmidt)
Clicking on the link takes you back to the main article. Circular reasoning at its finest.
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