Bobby. wrote on Oct 9
th, 2022 at 6:17am:
aquascoot wrote on Oct 9
th, 2022 at 5:58am:
without russian oil, gas and wheat, probably your unleaded will hit 4 dollars a litre.
your electricity bill will double.
food prices will double
this years crop will fail (russia supplies over 1/2 the worlds fertiliser and 90 % of the potash which is essential to grow rice) and next year we should see a famine
global trade will be shut down to a fairly large extent
opec will see this as a way to hike prices.
blackouts will become the norm
germany will cease manufacturing and their will be huge hikes in car prices.
europe will be in deep depression
china will be in depression
africa will be in rebellion
australias terms of trade will collapse
inflation will run at 10 % and as rates rise banks will start to fail and the government will have to print a trillion to bail them out, making inflation worse and the pension all but subsistence.
super accounts will tank.
but its all good, ukraine is winning back their rubble and can live amongst the rubble for a decade as no one will have cash to bail them out.
and aussies can face the blowtorch of pain, food shortages, mortgage defaults, petrol rationing, blackouts, crop failures and civil unrest.
should be a great time for the apex gang and people who can live in the bush and have learnt resilience.
the inner city elite are about to get tooled
this years crop will fail?
I don't think so.
If anything farmers have over fertilised the soil with chemicals -
that's why we have blue green algae problems in all our river systems and dams -
too much fertiliser runoff.
Plants are adaptable -
their roots will grow deeper to find nutrients.
It wouldn't hurt at all to not use fertiliser for a few years.
After 2 years the world could be in trouble - so let's say 2024 or 2025.
Abrutal invasion in Eastern Europe, a chemical industry facing an unprecedented crisis and climate change threatening to slash crop yields across the globe.
There’s a perfect storm that’s threatening food supplies to millions of people with a whole continent facing widespread hunger.
It didn’t start when the cold war winds returned to Europe, but Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made it a whole lot worse.
Agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia account for 12 per cent of the calories traded globally. Combined, they produce about a third of the world’s wheat.
“Wheat is a staple product in the diets of so many,” Rabobank grains analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon says, “20 per cent of the world’s calories come from wheat and in some parts of Africa and the Middle East it’s much higher.”
However, the invasion itself is only one catalyst of a crisis stretching around the globe to affect crops and trade routes far from the battle fields.
If the world’s food supply chain was a pool, the Ukraine war is just one stone breaking the surface. The concentric ripples are colliding with other waves from other challenges, changing their path and deepening the emergency.
High gas prices alone would have been enough to send fertiliser prices up.
However, this perfect storm had far greater reach, and had been brewing long before Putin’s troops hit Ukrainian soil.
There are three primary nutrients that make up most commercial fertilisers: nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium.
One of the most commonly used fertilisers in grain production is known as DAP — a chemical that comprises nitrogen and phosphate — and its cost hit 15-year heights this year.
Driving that price spike was extreme weather that led to plant shutdowns in New Orleans, where storms lashed one of the biggest US producers of phosphate.
That company also owned facilities across the Atlantic, where those surging natural gas prices prompted the temporary closure of two plants in the UK.
That caused a crisis in carbon dioxide supplies, which — in turn — had major implications for the food, medical and nuclear sectors, meaning everything from soft drink supplies to humane animal slaughter were at risk.
Potash is a potassium-rich salt and also commonly used as a fertiliser. One of the world’s largest producers is Belarus, a close ally of Russia.
However, access to that compound became much harder when the US and Europe imposed sanctions on a major potash producer, after the Belarusian government ordered a plane to land in Minsk so it could detain opposition activist and journalist Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend in 2021.
Further east, China was slashing production to curb emissions, while also limiting exports to retain what was produced onshore.
Those most at risk of having fertiliser cut off were those least able to do anything about it and likely to feel its harshest effects.
You just need to look to Sri Lanka to see the consequence of suddenly being cut off from fertiliser.
That country has just ousted its president and prime minister amid a worsening economic crisis, driven in part by a rush into organic farming that saw chemical fertilisers banned.
Six months after abandoning traditional farming practices, the country that was once self-sufficient in rice production had to import more than $600 million of foreign rice, while low crop yields virtually destroyed exports of tea and rubber.
source
ABC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-28/russia-ukraine-food-shortage-fertiliser-c...
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