issuevoter wrote on Jun 29
th, 2022 at 7:30am:
The basic dynamic is the Putin dictatorship states: "If Europe and the US do not let me have Ukraine, I will do something awful to everyone." However, Europe and the USA do not in turn say: "If Russia does not stop their invasion we will do something awful to Russia." The question is how awful? Putin knows this is the question, it is his last card and he played it first. He is not a diplomat or even a politician, he is a thug with a loaded gun at the world's head. So far, NATO has played a cool game, and the proof of this is that Turkey has lifted its veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO. They are taking one step at a time.
Let us examine the situation for Russia. They have Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Eritrea on their side. For Ukraine, they have much of the European Union, North America, and Australasia on their side. Militarily, the Russians are outmatched 10 to 1. Economically, the Russians are outmatched 40 to 1. That is just an estimate based on what I have known about the economy and military of the world.
What we know about Russia's economy is that they are doing oil exports to the Indians. The Indians want no part of the war Russia has with Ukraine. But, India needs oil pretty badly and will not disrupt their own economy just to support a bunch of white people from dying.
What I *feel* I know about the conflict is that Russia will win before it loses something. It has won enough already and might as well stop there with what they have. Some Ukrainians were happy to break away from Ukraine and become part of Russia. Ukraine is not a rich country. Ukraine has nearly twice the number of people there that Australia has. But, Ukraine has a GDP of about 1/3rd that of Australia. Russia has the slightly higher GDP than Australia, but with 5 times the population. Russia's GDP per capita is $10,000. Ukraine's GDP per capita is around $4000.
It seems that the reluctance of the world to support Ukraine militarily is strategic in the knowledge that Ukraine's economy is not strong with widespread corruption. World support for Ukraine is based on the fact that Ukraine is the weaker country in the conflict. Morally, Ukraine is the victim. But, much of the reluctance in helping fight off Russian invaders seem to come to the idea that maybe Russia will absorb the country into its stronger union and make something more of the region. With some Ukrainians willing to be Russia, there could have been a bloodless solution to the situation.
"If Putin wins"? Perhaps he already has.