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If Putin Wins. (Read 786 times)
UnSubRocky
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #15 - Jun 28th, 2022 at 5:25pm
 
John Smith wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 2:06pm:
If Putin wins China will start to think it can do the same with taiwan


I think China has been thinking of taking over Taiwan ever since Chiang Kai-shek retreated there in 1949. For what little I know of modern issues, China has been reported to want to take Taiwan since the 1990s. No Chinese president needs to be inspired by the round eyes winning against another bunch of round eyes to get motivated to take over Taiwan.
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #16 - Jun 28th, 2022 at 6:29pm
 
issuevoter wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 2:08pm:
random wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 1:36pm:
Can't find the cite for it, but I recall a quote about WWII

"America supplied the $'s, Russia supplied the blood."

20 million Russians died in WWII, they know how to grind on in hard times.  The US lost in Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Iraq and Afghanistan.

If America had been fighting an Iraq style war in Mexico instead of the other side of the world, they would have won that, but they lost.  Ukraine is Russia's Mexico, they will eventually win that war too.

But all the old tricks are being recycled once again. 

Just this last day the old War Crime thing is trotted out about rockets hitting a shopping center.  smacking Americans, two faced kunts they are have done worse.  I recall a gunship strike on an Afghan hospital.

" AFGHANISTAN
Letters of No Apology: Those people are dead because we wanted them dead.- Pentagon spokesman on the killing of 93 people in Chowkar-Karaz, fall of 2001"


No war crime cries about that.  Kunts they are.


This is relativism. If its OK for the US, its OK for Russia. I cannot condone the invasion on those assumptions. Its an immoral point of view.


You totally missed the point.  It's not relativism.  It's hypocrisy that renders the US with no moral mandate to even comment.  They are lying kunts who consistently and repeatedly criticize other countries for actions that do not even rate on the scale of US crimes. 

How smacking dare they say anything about Russia bombing a shopping centre, when they have targeted an entire village, wedding parties and hospitals.  I hope the kunts who did all that all burn in hell with Madeline Albright.
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #17 - Jun 28th, 2022 at 8:48pm
 
Bias_2012 wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 4:37pm:
The best thing to do would be to put Trump back in the Oval Office


Yes. Putin and Xi were very subdued when Trump was in.
Even Crazy Kim lowered his missiles.
Islam listened.
Israel and Saudis listened to each other.

Trump sure did put a spanner in the Media's narrative and corruption of Politics.
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #18 - Jun 28th, 2022 at 8:53pm
 
random wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 6:29pm:
You totally missed the point.  It's not relativism.  It's hypocrisy that renders the US with no moral mandate to even comment.  They are lying kunts who consistently and repeatedly criticize other countries for actions that do not even rate on the scale of US crimes. 

How smacking dare they say anything about Russia bombing a shopping centre, when they have targeted an entire village, wedding parties and hospitals.  I hope the kunts who did all that all burn in hell with Madeline Albright.



Either With Us Or With The Terrorists - Bush





Matthew 12:30

He that is not with me is against me;
and he that gathereth not with me scattereth abroad.
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UnSubRocky
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #19 - Jun 28th, 2022 at 10:29pm
 
tickleandrose wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 3:27pm:
John Smith wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 2:06pm:
If Putin wins China will start to think it can do the same with taiwan


I think it can go both ways.  If Putin wins, then the west will be desperate for win, and so they will likely to commit more in South China sea.    The best case senario that China would hope for, is for the west and Putin to duke out in a protracted war over a few years.  And there by draining the west of popular support for any future war, and its economy. 


Any conflict Russia has with the West will be quick and painful for the Russians. It won't be 41 million Ukrainians that the Russians fight. Much more like 700 million Europeans mostly against the Russians. Anyone with a Russian last name will be ready to call themselves Ukrainian in no time. By the end of it -- and I would say that 6 months would be long enough time for the Russians to lose the war -- Russia will have to sell their oil at a discounted price to pay for the damage they caused. Imagine the emigration from Russia. Every third migrant to Australia will be from Russia in the year 2023.
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UnSubRocky
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #20 - Jun 28th, 2022 at 10:34pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 8:53pm:
random wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 6:29pm:
You totally missed the point.  It's not relativism.  It's hypocrisy that renders the US with no moral mandate to even comment.  They are lying kunts who consistently and repeatedly criticize other countries for actions that do not even rate on the scale of US crimes. 

How smacking dare they say anything about Russia bombing a shopping centre, when they have targeted an entire village, wedding parties and hospitals.  I hope the kunts who did all that all burn in hell with Madeline Albright.



Either With Us Or With The Terrorists - Bush





Matthew 12:30

He that is not with me is against me;
and he that gathereth not with me scattereth abroad.


Yeah, that the decision of one man to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq...err... he meant Ukraine. Iraq, too.


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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #21 - Jun 29th, 2022 at 7:30am
 
UnSubRocky wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 10:29pm:
tickleandrose wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 3:27pm:
John Smith wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 2:06pm:
If Putin wins China will start to think it can do the same with taiwan


I think it can go both ways.  If Putin wins, then the west will be desperate for win, and so they will likely to commit more in South China sea.    The best case senario that China would hope for, is for the west and Putin to duke out in a protracted war over a few years.  And there by draining the west of popular support for any future war, and its economy. 


Any conflict Russia has with the West will be quick and painful for the Russians. It won't be 41 million Ukrainians that the Russians fight. Much more like 700 million Europeans mostly against the Russians. Anyone with a Russian last name will be ready to call themselves Ukrainian in no time. By the end of it -- and I would say that 6 months would be long enough time for the Russians to lose the war -- Russia will have to sell their oil at a discounted price to pay for the damage they caused. Imagine the emigration from Russia. Every third migrant to Australia will be from Russia in the year 2023.


The basic dynamic is the Putin dictatorship states: "If Europe and the US do not let me have Ukraine, I will do something awful to everyone." However, Europe and the USA do not in turn say: "If Russia does not stop their invasion we will do something awful to Russia." The question is how awful? Putin knows this is the question, it is his last card and he played it first. He is not a diplomat or even a politician, he is a thug with a loaded gun at the world's head. So far, NATO has played a cool game, and the proof of this is that Turkey has lifted its veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO. They are taking one step at a time.

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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #22 - Jun 29th, 2022 at 11:30am
 
Yes, I was surprised to hear Turkey had dropped objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #23 - Jun 29th, 2022 at 2:27pm
 
issuevoter wrote on Jun 29th, 2022 at 7:30am:
The basic dynamic is the Putin dictatorship states: "If Europe and the US do not let me have Ukraine, I will do something awful to everyone." However, Europe and the USA do not in turn say: "If Russia does not stop their invasion we will do something awful to Russia." The question is how awful? Putin knows this is the question, it is his last card and he played it first. He is not a diplomat or even a politician, he is a thug with a loaded gun at the world's head. So far, NATO has played a cool game, and the proof of this is that Turkey has lifted its veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO. They are taking one step at a time.


Let us examine the situation for Russia. They have Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Eritrea on their side. For Ukraine, they have much of the European Union, North America, and Australasia on their side. Militarily, the Russians are outmatched 10 to 1. Economically, the Russians are outmatched 40 to 1. That is just an estimate based on what I have known about the economy and military of the world.

What we know about Russia's economy is that they are doing oil exports to the Indians. The Indians want no part of the war Russia has with Ukraine. But, India needs oil pretty badly and will not disrupt their own economy just to support a bunch of white people from dying.

What I *feel* I know about the conflict is that Russia will win before it loses something. It has won enough already and might as well stop there with what they have. Some Ukrainians were happy to break away from Ukraine and become part of Russia. Ukraine is not a rich country. Ukraine has nearly twice the number of people there that Australia has. But, Ukraine has a GDP of about 1/3rd that of Australia. Russia has the slightly higher GDP than Australia, but with 5 times the population. Russia's GDP per capita is $10,000. Ukraine's GDP per capita is around $4000.

It seems that the reluctance of the world to support Ukraine militarily is strategic in the knowledge that Ukraine's economy is not strong with widespread corruption. World support for Ukraine is based on the fact that Ukraine is the weaker country in the conflict. Morally, Ukraine is the victim. But, much of the reluctance in helping fight off Russian invaders seem to come to the idea that maybe Russia will absorb the country into its stronger union and make something more of the region. With some Ukrainians willing to be Russia, there could have been a bloodless solution to the situation.

"If Putin wins"? Perhaps he already has.
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #24 - Jun 29th, 2022 at 8:52pm
 
UnSubRocky wrote on Jun 29th, 2022 at 2:27pm:
issuevoter wrote on Jun 29th, 2022 at 7:30am:
The basic dynamic is the Putin dictatorship states: "If Europe and the US do not let me have Ukraine, I will do something awful to everyone." However, Europe and the USA do not in turn say: "If Russia does not stop their invasion we will do something awful to Russia." The question is how awful? Putin knows this is the question, it is his last card and he played it first. He is not a diplomat or even a politician, he is a thug with a loaded gun at the world's head. So far, NATO has played a cool game, and the proof of this is that Turkey has lifted its veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO. They are taking one step at a time.


Let us examine the situation for Russia. They have Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Eritrea on their side. For Ukraine, they have much of the European Union, North America, and Australasia on their side. Militarily, the Russians are outmatched 10 to 1. Economically, the Russians are outmatched 40 to 1. That is just an estimate based on what I have known about the economy and military of the world.

What we know about Russia's economy is that they are doing oil exports to the Indians. The Indians want no part of the war Russia has with Ukraine. But, India needs oil pretty badly and will not disrupt their own economy just to support a bunch of white people from dying.

What I *feel* I know about the conflict is that Russia will win before it loses something. It has won enough already and might as well stop there with what they have. Some Ukrainians were happy to break away from Ukraine and become part of Russia. Ukraine is not a rich country. Ukraine has nearly twice the number of people there that Australia has. But, Ukraine has a GDP of about 1/3rd that of Australia. Russia has the slightly higher GDP than Australia, but with 5 times the population. Russia's GDP per capita is $10,000. Ukraine's GDP per capita is around $4000.

It seems that the reluctance of the world to support Ukraine militarily is strategic in the knowledge that Ukraine's economy is not strong with widespread corruption. World support for Ukraine is based on the fact that Ukraine is the weaker country in the conflict. Morally, Ukraine is the victim. But, much of the reluctance in helping fight off Russian invaders seem to come to the idea that maybe Russia will absorb the country into its stronger union and make something more of the region. With some Ukrainians willing to be Russia, there could have been a bloodless solution to the situation.

"If Putin wins"? Perhaps he already has.


I appreciate your perspective. However, if Putin really wanted to limit NATO, he lost today, as it appears he will shortly have the alliance on his right flank spreading the Russian military very thinly. I don't think military tactics or strategy are Putin's strong points. He is interested in international power and prestige, and he's pissing them away. Ukraine has corruption and rights problems, but the signs are that having thrown off Moscow's puppet president, the people want European democracy. I believe the only reason NATO isn't giving Ukraine obvious air cover is the Putin/Lavrov threat of nuclear war. It is a fact that the military told the troops and Putin that it would be over in a week. Russia can still win, but they are starting to wonder if it will be worth it.

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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #25 - Jun 29th, 2022 at 9:09pm
 
The threat of nuclear war is a bluff for melodramatic effect.

Russia cannot afford a nuclear exchange and Putin knows that.

The war was a gross miscalculation on Putin's part but it does not ease the need for NATO and its allies to find a face-saving way out for Russia over this mess.

Turkey quickly backed down on its threat to veto Sweden's and Finland's entry into NATO and Putin has played it down stating that Russia has no dispute with either country.

Ultimately Ukraine will be partitioned with the east and the south ceded to Russia and that won't come as a shock to Ukrainians. No Ukrainian seriously believes that Kiev can govern the east and the south anyway.

The rest of Ukraine is a west-leaning region and would be ungovernable by Russia short of a genocide and ethnic-cleansing.

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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #26 - Jun 30th, 2022 at 8:17am
 
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jun 29th, 2022 at 9:09pm:
The threat of nuclear war is a bluff for melodramatic effect.

Russia cannot afford a nuclear exchange and Putin knows that.

The war was a gross miscalculation on Putin's part but it does not ease the need for NATO and its allies to find a face-saving way out for Russia over this mess.

Turkey quickly backed down on its threat to veto Sweden's and Finland's entry into NATO and Putin has played it down stating that Russia has no dispute with either country.

Ultimately Ukraine will be partitioned with the east and the south ceded to Russia and that won't come as a shock to Ukrainians. No Ukrainian seriously believes that Kiev can govern the east and the south anyway.

The rest of Ukraine is a west-leaning region and would be ungovernable by Russia short of a genocide and ethnic-cleansing.



Yesterday, the BBC ran the Finland/Sweden story as breaking news headlines for a few hours, and then dropped as if it wasn't important. I don't believe that was an editorial choice. Putin and Lavrov are famous liars. They are seriously pissed off about Finland. If the threat of nuclear war was just melodrama, it worked, but Ukraine surprised everyone with their early successes without air cover.

It is pretty obvious that Russia planned a massive landing at Odessa. Another of Putin's lies was the the Moskva had a fire on board that was contained. But then she capsized and sank. Now it seems Odessa is upgrading its anti-shipping missile batteries. I wonder if that means the Russian army will have to take Odessa from the north east.

Much of the sophisticated weaponry from the West is still in the training phase in Europe. As the Ukraine military modernises, the war is not going to get easier for Russia with their current tactics. Anyway, I don't see Putin simply saying "this bit of Ukraine will do." He wants the Carpathian high ground and Moldova. He's a little man with a "Napoleon" complex.

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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #27 - Jun 30th, 2022 at 9:03am
 
issuevoter wrote on Jun 30th, 2022 at 8:17am:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jun 29th, 2022 at 9:09pm:
The threat of nuclear war is a bluff for melodramatic effect.

Russia cannot afford a nuclear exchange and Putin knows that.

The war was a gross miscalculation on Putin's part but it does not ease the need for NATO and its allies to find a face-saving way out for Russia over this mess.

Turkey quickly backed down on its threat to veto Sweden's and Finland's entry into NATO and Putin has played it down stating that Russia has no dispute with either country.

Ultimately Ukraine will be partitioned with the east and the south ceded to Russia and that won't come as a shock to Ukrainians. No Ukrainian seriously believes that Kiev can govern the east and the south anyway.

The rest of Ukraine is a west-leaning region and would be ungovernable by Russia short of a genocide and ethnic-cleansing.



Yesterday, the BBC ran the Finland/Sweden story as breaking news headlines for a few hours, and then dropped as if it wasn't important. I don't believe that was an editorial choice. Putin and Lavrov are famous liars. They are seriously pissed off about Finland. If the threat of nuclear war was just melodrama, it worked, but Ukraine surprised everyone with their early successes without air cover.

It is pretty obvious that Russia planned a massive landing at Odessa. Another of Putin's lies was the the Moskva had a fire on board that was contained. But then she capsized and sank. Now it seems Odessa is upgrading its anti-shipping missile batteries. I wonder if that means the Russian army will have to take Odessa from the north east.

Much of the sophisticated weaponry from the West is still in the training phase in Europe. As the Ukraine military modernises, the war is not going to get easier for Russia with their current tactics. Anyway, I don't see Putin simply saying "this bit of Ukraine will do." He wants the Carpathian high ground and Moldova. He's a little man with a "Napoleon" complex.


There's no doubt that western Ukraine's capacity to stare down the Russian military has prompted NATO and its allies to invest in its defence (as the US did with Israel after the 6-day war proved the Israeli military was a serious fighting force).

But eastern Ukraine and the Crimea are east-leaning (Russo-centric) regions and will never be governable peacefully by Kiev. Also, Ukrainian far-right forces are resident there and are, no doubt, as big a problem for Kiev as they are for Russia. The EU would never tolerate a Ukraine with a far-right native force of that size as EU citizens, so western Ukraine must divest itself of these regions to be a viable western European state - that, and the elimination its judicial corruption, among other things.

Of course Putin and his allies are angered by Sweden's and Finland's imminent entry into NATO, but he has clearly acceded that it is inevitable and irreversible short of open war with NATO and the EU.

Putin is a neo-Tsarist whose goal is the reconstituting of Russia's Tsarist empire; but he will have to accept eastern Ukraine - for now.

But this ambition flies in the face of an historical fact - no empire has been reconstituted once it has fallen and has passed into history.
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #28 - Jun 30th, 2022 at 2:29pm
 
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jun 30th, 2022 at 9:03am:
issuevoter wrote on Jun 30th, 2022 at 8:17am:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jun 29th, 2022 at 9:09pm:
The threat of nuclear war is a bluff for melodramatic effect.

Russia cannot afford a nuclear exchange and Putin knows that.

The war was a gross miscalculation on Putin's part but it does not ease the need for NATO and its allies to find a face-saving way out for Russia over this mess.

Turkey quickly backed down on its threat to veto Sweden's and Finland's entry into NATO and Putin has played it down stating that Russia has no dispute with either country.

Ultimately Ukraine will be partitioned with the east and the south ceded to Russia and that won't come as a shock to Ukrainians. No Ukrainian seriously believes that Kiev can govern the east and the south anyway.

The rest of Ukraine is a west-leaning region and would be ungovernable by Russia short of a genocide and ethnic-cleansing.



Yesterday, the BBC ran the Finland/Sweden story as breaking news headlines for a few hours, and then dropped as if it wasn't important. I don't believe that was an editorial choice. Putin and Lavrov are famous liars. They are seriously pissed off about Finland. If the threat of nuclear war was just melodrama, it worked, but Ukraine surprised everyone with their early successes without air cover.

It is pretty obvious that Russia planned a massive landing at Odessa. Another of Putin's lies was the the Moskva had a fire on board that was contained. But then she capsized and sank. Now it seems Odessa is upgrading its anti-shipping missile batteries. I wonder if that means the Russian army will have to take Odessa from the north east.

Much of the sophisticated weaponry from the West is still in the training phase in Europe. As the Ukraine military modernises, the war is not going to get easier for Russia with their current tactics. Anyway, I don't see Putin simply saying "this bit of Ukraine will do." He wants the Carpathian high ground and Moldova. He's a little man with a "Napoleon" complex.


There's no doubt that western Ukraine's capacity to stare down the Russian military has prompted NATO and its allies to invest in its defence (as the US did with Israel after the 6-day war proved the Israeli military was a serious fighting force).

But eastern Ukraine and the Crimea are east-leaning (Russo-centric) regions and will never be governable peacefully by Kiev. Also, Ukrainian far-right forces are resident there and are, no doubt, as big a problem for Kiev as they are for Russia. The EU would never tolerate a Ukraine with a far-right native force of that size as EU citizens, so western Ukraine must divest itself of these regions to be a viable western European state - that, and the elimination its judicial corruption, among other things.

Of course Putin and his allies are angered by Sweden's and Finland's imminent entry into NATO, but he has clearly acceded that it is inevitable and irreversible short of open war with NATO and the EU.

Putin is a neo-Tsarist whose goal is the reconstituting of Russia's Tsarist empire; but he will have to accept eastern Ukraine - for now.

But this ambition flies in the face of an historical fact - no empire has been reconstituted once it has fallen and has passed into history.


Agreed. The other point that a lot of people don't get is that Crimea is not historically Ukraine. Catherine established it as Russian when it was inhabited by loose bands of Tartars. It came under Ukraine with Khrushchev.
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Re: If Putin Wins.
Reply #29 - Jun 30th, 2022 at 2:35pm
 
UnSubRocky wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 10:34pm:
Bobby. wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 8:53pm:
random wrote on Jun 28th, 2022 at 6:29pm:
You totally missed the point.  It's not relativism.  It's hypocrisy that renders the US with no moral mandate to even comment.  They are lying kunts who consistently and repeatedly criticize other countries for actions that do not even rate on the scale of US crimes. 

How smacking dare they say anything about Russia bombing a shopping centre, when they have targeted an entire village, wedding parties and hospitals.  I hope the kunts who did all that all burn in hell with Madeline Albright.



Either With Us Or With The Terrorists - Bush





Matthew 12:30

He that is not with me is against me;
and he that gathereth not with me scattereth abroad.


Yeah, that the decision of one man to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq...err... he meant Ukraine. Iraq, too.





The Bush doctrine still holds true today -
it has never been repudiated by an Australian Prime Minister.
It is still in force.
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