In March 2016, the Turnbull Liberal government joined forces with the Greens to amend the Commonwealth Electoral Act and abolish Senate Group Voting Tickets (GVTs).
With the change, instead of simply voting 1 above the line and leaving preferences to the party for which they had voted, voters were required to allocate six or more preferences above the line or twelve or more below the line on the ballot paper. Beyond issuing how-to-vote advice, parties had no say over preferences.
It is interesting to consider how this has affected the current Parliament.
The Senate comprises 76 senators, which means the government requires 39 votes to pass its legislation or prevent disallowance of its regulations. Following the May election, Labor has 26 senators, well short of a majority.
However, the Greens now have 12 senators. Thus, if they support the government, only one more vote is needed. The two Jacquie Lambie Network senators, Jacquie Lambie and Tammy Tyrrell, or the new ACT Senator David Pocock, can be expected to support the government. Lambie has a record of voting with Labor while Pocock is known for his left-leaning views.
If the Greens oppose the government, the only way for the government to reach a majority is with the support of the Liberals/Nationals, which have 32 senators.
The Liberals/Nationals, despite their higher headcount, cannot assemble a majority even with the support of all the crossbench (One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts, UAP’s Ralph Babet, plus Lambie, Tyrrell, and Pocock).
In other words, the Greens are kingmakers – no legislation, if opposed by the Liberals/Nationals, can pass without their support.
That the Greens are now in this position is no surprise to anyone except some in the Liberal Party.
The Greens certainly expected it. Notwithstanding the adolescent behaviour of their senators in the chamber, the party has some backroom people who are quite smart. They quickly figured out that supporting the Liberals to pass the legislation would eliminate most of their minor party competitors.
Labor also worked it out.
The party’s leader in the Senate, Senator Penny Wong, summarised the party’s view:
‘Now Senator Di Natale has entered a deal with the Liberals to purge the Senate of the Greens’ competitors and to disenfranchise millions of voters.’Both former senator Bob Day and I personally told the leader of the Liberals in the Senate, Senator Mathias Cormann, that would be the likely outcome.
Bob Day also referred to it in his second reading speech:
‘These changes will result in the Greens obtaining the balance of power permanently.’
https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/08/how-the-liberals-stuffed-up-the-senate/