Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth’s Heating Rate
"We show that independent satellite and in situ observations each yield statistically indistinguishable decadal increases in EEI from mid-2005 to mid-2019 of 0.50 ± 0.47 W m−2 decade−1 (5%–95% confidence interval). This trend is primarily due to an increase in absorbed solar radiation associated with decreased reflection by clouds and sea-ice and a decrease in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) due to increases in trace gases and water vapor. These changes combined exceed a positive trend in OLR due to increasing global mean temperatures."
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL093047Radiative Energy Flux Variation from 2001–2020
"We found the declining outgoing shortwave radiation to be the most important contributor for a positive TOA (top of the atmosphere) net flux of 0.8 W/m2 in this time frame. We compare clear sky with cloudy areas and find that changes in the cloud structure should be the root cause for the shortwave trend. The radiative flux data are compared with ocean heat content data and analyzed in the context of a longer-term climate system enthalpy estimation going back to the year 1750. We also report differences in the trends for the Northern and Southern hemisphere. The radiative data indicate more variability in the North and higher stability in the South. The drop of cloudiness around the millennium by about 1.5% has certainly fostered the positive net radiative flux."
" Based upon recent CERES data, Loeb et al. [16], Wong et al. [17] and Ollila [18] reported an increasing downwelling shortwave (SW) radiation. Loeb et al. reported a decreasing TOA SW trend, mainly caused by a reduction in low cloud cover, and Ollila concluded that this increasing downwelling SW, which is particularly strong since 2014, may be responsible for a new wave of heating after the hiatus.
This finding is in conflict with the assumption that further global warming originates mainly from the LW radiation capture caused by greenhouse gases, i.e., a decline of outgoing LW.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1297/htmGlobal Circulation Models (GCMs) Simulate the Current Temperature Only If the Shortwave Radiation Anomaly of the 2000s Has Been Omitted
"According to graphical presentations on the temperature effect of aerosols by Gillett, the aerosol effect has been slowly declining since 1920 and being about -0.5 °C from 1990 onward. There are research results based on ground stations and satellite observations showing that the global dimming turned into brightening about
1985 to 1990 [8,9,10]. The decisive evidence has come from the shortwave (SW) radiation measurements by the (CERES) satellites since March 2000 [11]. These satellites measure total solar irradiation (TSI) and upwelling SW radiation, and the difference is the downwelling SW radiation [7], Fig. 1. "
"The SW anomaly impacts show that there are natural climate drivers that have rapid and significant temperature impacts exceeding the anthropogenic drivers for the period of 2000-2019. "
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Antero-Ollila/publication/353581425_Global_...