polite_gandalf wrote on Oct 20
th, 2021 at 11:52am:
Bam wrote on Oct 18
th, 2021 at 5:29pm:
I have seen polls suggesting a swing against the government of 10% in WA. Such a swing would be devastating to their electoral chances.
I agree, WA is the one to watch. I have strong hopes for labor in Porter's seat - that is if he doesn't decide to quit before then (in which case liberals will have a better chance IMO).
Elsewhere, I think the LNP have maxed out in QLD - where the TPP last election was around 59-41, which is unsustainable, even if they were doing well. Polls are currently tracking at around 55-45, which is already a significant swing back to labor. There are a couple of marginals that labor would have in sight - including Dutton's seat.
Also, don't discount Victoria - where although labor already has a huge TPP lead, there is potential for even further gains - including not just the second most marginal seat in the country (Chisolm), but at least 2 others as well. Dan Andrew's popularity will server labor well federally.
Then there's Boothby in SA, whose sitting liberal member is quitting, so another real chance there.
The only real threat to labor is in NSW, where at least one seat in western Sydney that they held by the skin of their teeth next election will be under threat. Also Eden-Monaro will have a high profile liberal candidate if Constance gets up in pre-selection. Labor won't have their long-running and popular candidate Mike Kelly anymore either.
Overall I still think a hung parliament is probably most likely, with labor forming government in minority. But still a good chance for labor majority.
Your analysis is reasonable, but would benefit from a bit more detail.
By my reckoning based on recent polling, about 20 Coalition seats are in play as possible Labor gains. Maybe five Labor seats at most are in play for the Coalition.
Labor needs to gain four seats to have a chance at forming minority government. It was five seats, but recent redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia have brought that number down to four: Victoria gains a new safe Labor seat called Hawke, and Western Australia loses a Coalition seat.
To gain a majority, Labor needs to gain eight seats on the 2019 result (68) and seven seats if we include the notional Labor seat of Hawke.
States are listed in order of number of Coalition seats held.
* Qld: 23 LNP, six ALP, one KAP. Labor can gain seats here. Watch the over-65 vote in particular. The Coalition only held government thanks to a mendacious campaign around franking credits and "retiree taxes", and that won't be happening again. This time, the threat of the Coalition introducing a "pension card" is causing a fair bit of disquiet amongst our elderly. Polls are tracking a significant swing to Labor amongst the over-65s.
* NSW: ALP 24, LIB 14, NAT 7, UAP 1 (LIB at 2019 election), Ind 1. This state has the best prospects for Coalition gains. They may retake Warringah (Ind), reclaim Hughes (UAP) and may pick up a Labor seat or two. However, this state has some threats to the Coalition from independents, following successes in Indi (Vic), Wentworth and Warringah. Local campaigns to elect independents in Coalition seats are at various stages. Hughes is one seat that could fall to an independent.
* Vic: ALP 21(+1), LIB 12, NAT 3, GRN 1, Ind 1. Labor's strongest state could be the focus of fierce campaigning due to the lengthy lockdowns. Who would get blamed for this: Premier Andrews for imposing long lockdowns, or PM Morrison for quarantine and vaccine failures? A few seats may change hands in either direction, and Victoria may be harder to predict at this stage.
* WA: LIB 11(-1), ALP 5. The Liberals will lose seats here. The only question is how many. On election night, if early counting before polls close in WA suggest that the government needs to hold all its WA seats to have a chance, they are doomed. If the WA result doesn't matter, either the government has gained enough seats elsewhere to cover WA losses, or they've already been hammered in the eastern states. The latter scenario is more likely on current polling.
* SA: ALP 5, LIB 4, CA 1. Not much will happen in South Australia. Labor may gain Boothby, the Libs could gain Mayo (CA).
* Tas: ALP 2, Lib 2, Ind 1. Bass and Braddon (Lib) are in play, as is Lyons (ALP). Tasmania often goes against national trends. With only five seats, Tasmania will not be a focus on election night except if the result is close.
* ACT and NT: All seats in the territories are held by Labor. A good result for the Coalition would be regaining Solomon (a Darwin-based seat). A bad Coalition result would be losing their ACT Senator to the Greens, but that is unlikely.