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I smell LNP defeat in the air (Read 4697 times)
Bam
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #30 - Oct 18th, 2021 at 8:05pm
 
Dnarever wrote on Oct 18th, 2021 at 7:37pm:
Frank wrote on Oct 17th, 2021 at 8:15pm:
Sooo....
What's good about a Labor government?

Absolutely nothing they are just better than a Liberal government.

The Federal government has never been a Liberal government, it has always been a coalition between the Liberals and the Nationals. We are seeing this week why that Coalition is a bad idea.
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #31 - Oct 18th, 2021 at 9:34pm
 
Dnarever wrote on Oct 18th, 2021 at 7:37pm:
Frank wrote on Oct 17th, 2021 at 8:15pm:
Sooo....
What's good about a Labor government?




Absolutely nothing they are just better than a Liberal government.


They may be better, but they are stuck with a legacy of illegal immigration, carbon tax, a dubious China policies. What I always see on Ozpol around election time is wishful thinking. It so much like religion, it ain't funny.
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #32 - Oct 19th, 2021 at 6:29pm
 
And thank goodness for that.
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #33 - Oct 19th, 2021 at 6:57pm
 
issuevoter wrote on Oct 18th, 2021 at 9:34pm:
Dnarever wrote on Oct 18th, 2021 at 7:37pm:
Frank wrote on Oct 17th, 2021 at 8:15pm:
Sooo....
What's good about a Labor government?




Absolutely nothing they are just better than a Liberal government.


They may be better, but they are stuck with a legacy of illegal immigration, carbon tax, a dubious China policies. What I always see on Ozpol around election time is wishful thinking. It so much like religion, it ain't funny.


legacy of illegal immigration:

Immigration isn't illegal silly ?


Carbon tax:

The fixed carbon price was barely a tax and the only certainty is that whatever comes next is going to cost more than double maybe more than triple as much and not have as much benefit.

Yes with that politically motivated insanity the Liberals may have killed your great grand children - 
.
dubious China policies:

You know it was the Liberals that gave the pacific to China on a platter
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #34 - Oct 20th, 2021 at 11:52am
 
Bam wrote on Oct 18th, 2021 at 5:29pm:
polite_gandalf wrote on Oct 18th, 2021 at 1:46pm:
Dnarever wrote on Oct 5th, 2021 at 6:53pm:
I also hope it is correct but to be honest I don't feel the slightest mood for change in the electorate.


The government currently holds a one seat majority.

I can think of at least 4 or 5 key marginals that are extremely vulnerable for the coalition, and probably only 2 vulnerable labor seats in the whole country.

Add to that the possibility of more 'liberal light' independents challenging wealthy liberal urban seats - who might stand with labor to get meaningful action on climate change.

Morrison and the Coalition are so seriously on the nose in Western Australia that the Coalition could lose government on seat losses in WA alone. The Coalition's losing four seats is enough to change the government, and that many may be lost in WA.

It reminds me of that scene in Downfall (the German movie) where Hitler is confident that Steiner's attack will hold off the invasion and his generals had to tell him that Steiner didn't have enough men to carry out the assault. Morrison will be in the same situation on election night, confident of holding seats in WA, and then the counting reveals the bloodbath.

This is speculation of course, but I have seen polls suggesting a swing against the government of 10% in WA. Such a swing would be devastating to their electoral chances.


I agree, WA is the one to watch. I have strong hopes for labor in Porter's seat - that is if he doesn't decide to quit before then (in which case liberals will have a better chance IMO).

Elsewhere, I think the LNP have maxed out in QLD - where the TPP last election was around 59-41, which is unsustainable, even if they were doing well. Polls are currently  tracking at around 55-45, which is already a significant swing back to labor. There are a couple of marginals that labor would have in sight - including Dutton's seat.

Also, don't discount Victoria - where although labor already has a huge TPP lead, there is potential for even further gains - including not just the second most marginal seat in the country (Chisolm), but at least 2 others as well. Dan Andrew's popularity will server labor well federally.

Then there's Boothby in SA, whose sitting liberal member is quitting, so another real chance there.

The only real threat to labor is in NSW, where at least one seat in western Sydney that they held by the skin of their teeth next election will be under threat. Also Eden-Monaro will have a high profile liberal candidate if Constance gets up in pre-selection. Labor won't have their long-running and popular candidate Mike Kelly anymore either.

Overall I still think a hung parliament is probably most likely, with labor forming government in minority. But still a good chance for labor majority.
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #35 - Oct 20th, 2021 at 4:09pm
 
Who cares? The jurassic Libs and Labs are past their use-by date

Of the billions allocated to Rural Australia just recently, 55% of it went to the major cities ... how jurassic is that?

The National party holds a mega conference and still couldn't make up it's mind which way to go on climate change, after all this time that it's been a prominent issue

Labor? what are they all about these days? Just a dying dinosaur me thinks

When you vote, you're only voting for large bones dug up from under the ground, and trying to bring them back to life
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #36 - Oct 20th, 2021 at 4:22pm
 
Quote:
I smell LNP defeat in the air


deja vu.....which sock said that in 2019?
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #37 - Oct 21st, 2021 at 10:29am
 
polite_gandalf wrote on Oct 20th, 2021 at 11:52am:
Bam wrote on Oct 18th, 2021 at 5:29pm:
I have seen polls suggesting a swing against the government of 10% in WA. Such a swing would be devastating to their electoral chances.


I agree, WA is the one to watch. I have strong hopes for labor in Porter's seat - that is if he doesn't decide to quit before then (in which case liberals will have a better chance IMO).

Elsewhere, I think the LNP have maxed out in QLD - where the TPP last election was around 59-41, which is unsustainable, even if they were doing well. Polls are currently  tracking at around 55-45, which is already a significant swing back to labor. There are a couple of marginals that labor would have in sight - including Dutton's seat.

Also, don't discount Victoria - where although labor already has a huge TPP lead, there is potential for even further gains - including not just the second most marginal seat in the country (Chisolm), but at least 2 others as well. Dan Andrew's popularity will server labor well federally.

Then there's Boothby in SA, whose sitting liberal member is quitting, so another real chance there.

The only real threat to labor is in NSW, where at least one seat in western Sydney that they held by the skin of their teeth next election will be under threat. Also Eden-Monaro will have a high profile liberal candidate if Constance gets up in pre-selection. Labor won't have their long-running and popular candidate Mike Kelly anymore either.

Overall I still think a hung parliament is probably most likely, with labor forming government in minority. But still a good chance for labor majority.

Your analysis is reasonable, but would benefit from a bit more detail.

By my reckoning based on recent polling, about 20 Coalition seats are in play as possible Labor gains. Maybe five Labor seats at most are in play for the Coalition.

Labor needs to gain four seats to have a chance at forming minority government. It was five seats, but recent redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia have brought that number down to four: Victoria gains a new safe Labor seat called Hawke, and Western Australia loses a Coalition seat.

To gain a majority, Labor needs to gain eight seats on the 2019 result (68) and seven seats if we include the notional Labor seat of Hawke.

States are listed in order of number of Coalition seats held.

* Qld: 23 LNP, six ALP, one KAP. Labor can gain seats here. Watch the over-65 vote in particular. The Coalition only held government thanks to a mendacious campaign around franking credits and "retiree taxes",  and that won't be happening again. This time, the threat of the Coalition introducing a "pension card" is causing a fair bit of disquiet amongst our elderly. Polls are tracking a significant swing to Labor amongst the over-65s.

* NSW: ALP 24, LIB 14, NAT 7, UAP 1 (LIB at 2019 election), Ind 1. This state has the best prospects for Coalition gains. They may retake Warringah (Ind), reclaim Hughes (UAP) and may pick up a Labor seat or two. However, this state has some threats to the Coalition from independents, following successes in Indi (Vic), Wentworth and Warringah. Local campaigns to elect independents in Coalition seats are at various stages. Hughes is one seat that could fall to an independent.

* Vic: ALP 21(+1), LIB 12, NAT 3, GRN 1, Ind 1. Labor's strongest state could be the focus of fierce campaigning due to the lengthy lockdowns. Who would get blamed for this: Premier Andrews for imposing long lockdowns, or PM Morrison for quarantine and vaccine failures? A few seats may change hands in either direction, and Victoria may be harder to predict at this stage.

* WA: LIB 11(-1), ALP 5. The Liberals will lose seats here. The only question is how many. On election night, if early counting before polls close in WA suggest that the government needs to hold all its WA seats to have a chance, they are doomed. If the WA result doesn't matter, either the government has gained enough seats elsewhere to cover WA losses, or they've already been hammered in the eastern states. The latter scenario is more likely on current polling.

* SA: ALP 5, LIB 4, CA 1. Not much will happen in South Australia. Labor may gain Boothby, the Libs could gain Mayo (CA).

* Tas: ALP 2, Lib 2, Ind 1. Bass and Braddon (Lib) are in play, as is Lyons (ALP). Tasmania often goes against national trends. With only five seats, Tasmania will not be a focus on election night except if the result is close.

* ACT and NT: All seats in the territories are held by Labor. A good result for the Coalition would be regaining Solomon (a Darwin-based seat). A bad Coalition result would be losing their ACT Senator to the Greens, but that is unlikely.

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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #38 - Oct 21st, 2021 at 10:30am
 
Can someone identify the significant differences between LNP and Labor governments?

To my mind the differences are marginal and have mostly to do with fashionable causes - Labor embraces them quickly while the LNP takes a bit longer. Labor is now a party of the university-educated and the LNP of the working class (which is also sliwer to embrace fashionable causes).

After covid, neither can claim fiscal or economic rectitude. The Americal alliance is a bipartisan position, as are large scale immigration,  net zero,  ever expanding welfare etc.
Laborites sound shrill,  LNPites sound scripted and dull.  Minor parties will never govern so they can say whatever.

Am I waking up hopelessly late?

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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #39 - Oct 25th, 2021 at 4:39pm
 
Frank wrote on Oct 21st, 2021 at 10:30am:
Can someone identify the significant differences between LNP and Labor governments?


Libs reward effort & enterprise whilst the ALP reward the opposite.


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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #40 - Oct 25th, 2021 at 4:59pm
 
Swagman wrote on Oct 25th, 2021 at 4:39pm:
Frank wrote on Oct 21st, 2021 at 10:30am:
Can someone identify the significant differences between LNP and Labor governments?


Libs reward effort & enterprise whilst the ALP reward the opposite.

Allowing companies to skim off millions of Jobkeeper payments forwarding them to shareholders is rewarding effort and enterprise? It’s about time those who support the Liberals faced the truth this particular group of thugs know nothing about free enterprise. Both Bob Menzies and Ayn Rand are rolling in their graves.
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John Smith
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #41 - Oct 25th, 2021 at 6:16pm
 
Swagman wrote on Oct 25th, 2021 at 4:39pm:
Frank wrote on Oct 21st, 2021 at 10:30am:
Can someone identify the significant differences between LNP and Labor governments?


Libs reward effort & enterprise whilst the ALP reward the opposite.





Grin Grin Grin Grin
Grin Grin Grin Grin
Grin Grin Grin Grin


I see you haven't lost your sense of humor
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #42 - Oct 25th, 2021 at 9:05pm
 
John Smith wrote on Oct 25th, 2021 at 6:16pm:
Swagman wrote on Oct 25th, 2021 at 4:39pm:
Frank wrote on Oct 21st, 2021 at 10:30am:
Can someone identify the significant differences between LNP and Labor governments?


Libs reward effort & enterprise whilst the ALP reward the opposite.





Grin Grin Grin Grin
Grin Grin Grin Grin
Grin Grin Grin Grin


I see you haven't lost your sense of humor


Yes I laughed but then thought he may have meant it.
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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #43 - Oct 27th, 2021 at 4:33pm
 
Ayn Marx wrote on Oct 25th, 2021 at 4:59pm:
Allowing companies to skim off millions of Jobkeeper payments forwarding them to shareholders


AKA compensation for closing down markets for the public good and keeping people employed for the economic welfare of individuals and the economy in general.

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Re: I smell LNP defeat in the air
Reply #44 - Oct 27th, 2021 at 5:16pm
 
Swagman wrote on Oct 27th, 2021 at 4:33pm:
Ayn Marx wrote on Oct 25th, 2021 at 4:59pm:
Allowing companies to skim off millions of Jobkeeper payments forwarding them to shareholders


AKA compensation for closing down markets for the public good and keeping people employed for the economic welfare of individuals and the economy in general.


What planet are you living on if you haven’t discovered millions of dollars ended up in the hands of those who least needed the support?
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