Australian Politics Forum - Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time

Jovial Monk

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Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time
Apr 8^th, 2021 at 4:57pm

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For the first time in recorded history, the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, or CO2, was measured at more than 420 parts per million at the Mauna Loa Observatory on the Big Island of Hawaii. It’s a disconcerting milestone in the human-induced warming of the planet, around the halfway point on our path toward doubling preindustrial CO2 levels. . . .

When the station began collecting CO2 measurements in the late 1950s, atmospheric CO2 concentration sat at around 315 parts per million. On Saturday, the daily average was pegged at 421.21 parts per million — the first time in human history that number has been so high. Previously, it had never exceeded 420 parts per million. . . .

“We’re completely certain that the increase in CO2 is warming the planet,” Kate Marvel, a climate scientist at NASA, wrote in an email. “I’m even more certain CO2 causes global heating than I am that smoking causes cancer. The world is already more than 2 [degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution.”

In addition to the temperature increase, a warmer atmosphere supports more instances of drought in some areas and flooding in others, along with stronger hurricanes and typhoons and the potential for more storms to rapidly intensify in dangerous, unpredictable ways. . . .

About half of emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere and induces warming, while more than a quarter is absorbed into the oceans, where it acidifies the water and disrupts marine ecosystems. . . .

There is special significance in reaching and surpassing a concentration of 416 parts per million. It means we’ve passed the midpoint between preindustrial CO2 levels, around 278 parts per million, and a doubling of that figure, or 556 parts per million. . . .

The record of 421 parts per million reached Saturday is just a single point and occurred as CO2 levels are nearing their yearly peak. But the levels over the past two months, of more than 417 parts per million, signal that the annual average concentration is likely to exceed 416 parts per million. . . .

The anticipated doubling of atmospheric CO2, which is likely by the year 2060, has been connected to a predicted three-degree or greater warming of the planet.

A study released last year found that doubling CO2 levels will probably lead to a temperature rise between 4.1 and 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit (2.3 and 4.5 degrees Celsius), ruling out more modest warming scenarios.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/05/atmospheric-co2-concentration-...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyOV7uZWQAsDqj3?format=png[/imgurl[url]https://www.w...

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #1 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 5:12pm And all that on the back of COVID and reduced anthro emissions.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #2 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 5:13pm Slightly less growth in emissions.
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lee

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Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time
Reply #3 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 6:11pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2021 at 5:13pm:

Slightly less growth in emissions.

"The Global Carbon Project, an authoritative group of dozens of international scientists who track emissions, calculated that the world will have put 34 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in the air in 2020.
That’s down from 36.4 billion metric tons in 2019, according a study published yesterday in the journal Earth System Science Data."

https://www.9news.com.au/world/world-carbon-dioxide-emissions-drop-seven-per-cen...

So a reduction is, according to you "slightly less growth in emissions"? A reduction is not a growth. Grin

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #4 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 6:36pm There was a reduction of about 8% in the growth of CO2 in 2020. Otherwise they would not have measured 421 points now, would they? And while that was a blip, readings have been hovering just below 420 for a while.
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lee

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Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time
Reply #5 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 6:50pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2021 at 6:36pm:

There was a reduction of about 8% in the growth of CO2 in 2020.

Exactly. Not a "Slightly less growth in emissions".

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2021 at 6:36pm:

Otherwise they would not have measured 421 points now, would they?

You mean it couldn't possibly be natural Grin

Just how much per annum do you think anthro emissions are? Roll Eyes

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #6 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 7:57pm It was a reduction in the rate of growth. It was not a reduction in emissions. 421m is the new high. Going to keep on warming!
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lee

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Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time
Reply #7 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 9:25pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2021 at 7:57pm:

It was a reduction in the rate of growth. It was not a reduction in emissions.

It was a reduction in emissions petal. lee wrote on Apr 8^th, 2021 at 6:11pm:

calculated that the world will have put 34 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in the air in 2020.
That’s down from 36.4 billion metric tons in 2019

36.4-34 = 2.4 billion tonnes of CO2 LESS emitted. Roll Eyes

.
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2021 at 7:57pm:

421m is the new high.

Damn those natural emissions. Grin

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #8 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 9:31pm It is going to keep on warming, that is the takeaway from 421ppm. Yes, a little bit less (under 7% less) was emitted than the year before. So what?
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Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 40655 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #9 - Apr 8^th, 2021 at 9:32pm Crop yields are through the roof. https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields
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lee

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Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time
Reply #10 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 12:07pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2021 at 9:31pm:

Yes, a little bit less (under 7% less) was emitted than the year before. So what?

Well it goes like this -

If anthro emissions go up and natural emissions stay the same the total goes up.

If anthro emissions stay the same and natural emissions go up the total goes up.

If anthro emissions stay the same and natural emissions fall the total goes down.

If anthro emissions go down and natural emissions go down the total goes down.

If anthro emissions go down and natural emissions go up the total goes up..

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2021 at 9:31pm:

It is going to keep on warming, that is the takeaway from 421ppm.

Evidence? The earth is not a greenhouse. We have both radiative and convective cooling.

Wijngaarden and Happer (2020) have shown that adding more CO2 is like adding a handkerchief to a blanket. The atmosphere is all but saturated for CO2 and H2O

"“Fig. 9 as well as Tables 2 and 4 show that at current concentrations, the forcings from all greenhouse gases are saturated. The saturations of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 are so extreme that the per-molecule forcing is attenuated by four orders of magnitude…”

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #11 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 4:30pm Convective cooling? Nope. Convective redistributing the heat in the atmosphere. Cannot convect or conduct heat to a vacuum.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #12 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 4:59pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 9^th, 2021 at 4:30pm: Cannot convect or conduct heat to a vacuum. And yet the OLR plots suggest otherwise.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #13 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:20pm OLR is niot convection or remotely related to it.
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UnSubRocky

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Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time
Reply #14 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:26pm

The number of cars on the road were reduced so much last year that oil producers had to pay importers to take the oil off their hands. Indians finally got to see the mountain ranges from their formerly polluted cities because there was little to no smog by comparison to previous years. Birds made their way back into cities, no longer spooked by car noises.

But let's just restart the bs that CO2 levels have managed to climb back to a new record. Gotta give the hippies some validation.

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #15 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:45pm Emissions last year, assuming desperate lee’s figures are correct, were 7% less than 2019. Atmospheric CO2 was still increased.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #16 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:50pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:20pm: OLR is niot convection or remotely related to it. And I did not say it was.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #17 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:51pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:45pm: Emissions last year, assuming desperate lee’s figures are correct, were 7% less than 2019. Atmospheric CO2 was still increased. Beware the power of natural emissions.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43644 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #18 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:51pm What you said implied it.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #19 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:57pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:51pm: What you said implied it. You are right for once.
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BigP Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1924 West Auckland Gender:	Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time Reply #20 - Apr 9^th, 2021 at 6:30pm lee wrote on Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:51pm: Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 9^th, 2021 at 5:45pm: Emissions last year, assuming desperate lee’s figures are correct, were 7% less than 2019. Atmospheric CO2 was still increased. Beware the power of natural emissions. Beware of the power of bullsh1t as well
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time
Reply #21 - Apr 11^th, 2021 at 12:07pm

The takeaway from all this: we are halfway to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

A doubling of CO2 will cause 2.5–4.5°K warming. 2°F above pre-industrial has resulted from a 50% increase and that does not include the warming already in the pipleline: there is a 21 year delay between an increase in CO2 and warming. This is due to oceans storing about 9% of the heat.

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lee

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Re: Atmospheric CO2 exceeds 420ppm for first time
Reply #22 - Apr 11^th, 2021 at 1:03pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 11^th, 2021 at 12:07pm:

A doubling of CO2 will cause 2.5–4.5°K warming.

So you disagree with the IPCC? How novel of you. And they merely talk likely ranges you however have absolute certainty. Grin

"While only 40 CMIP6 models currently have the runs needed to calculate ECS, around a third of those have an ECS higher than the upper end of the likely range – 1.5C to 4.5C – provided in the IPCC AR5."

https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explaine...

The decline in estimates of ECS from 2000 to 2015. Source: Scafetta, Mirandola, and Bianchini, 2017.

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 11^th, 2021 at 12:07pm:

2°F above pre-industrial has resulted from a 50% increase and that does not include the warming already in the pipleline: there is a 21 year delay between an increase in CO2 and warming

A v-e-e-e-r-r-r=y s-l-o-w control knob. Grin

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« Last Edit: Apr 11^th, 2021 at 1:09pm by lee »

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