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Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster (Read 2831 times)
juliar
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #75 - Jul 6th, 2020 at 9:54am
 
How true - anything Labor is riddled with corruption.
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Jasin
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #76 - Jul 6th, 2020 at 10:09am
 
It depends on McBain now. Will she just be a Gillard, using Eden-Monaro to service her own personal agenda and self-promotion?
Or will she turn out like Clover Moore and make Eden-Monaro its own little Kingdom of worth and toil?
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Captain Nemo
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #77 - Jul 6th, 2020 at 10:41am
 
It is a win ...

BUT

A by-election would normally see a swing against the government of between 3% and 4%.

This result is a small swing to the government. In a by-election!  Shocked

Last year, the winning margin was 1,685 votes.

This year ... in a by-election! ... the margin is currently 742 votes.

i.e. Labor went backwardsShocked That's with the donkey vote and leakage from the Nats!  Cheesy

On first preferences ... Labor is -3.20% Libs are +1.28%  Huh

"Mr. 26%*" has nothing to crow about.  Wink





* Albo's current Preferred PM rating.
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The 2025 election could be a shocker.
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macman
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #78 - Jul 6th, 2020 at 10:53am
 
As can be seen by Liars desperate non stop posting of garbage, the libs are in panic mode as they realise the cat is out of the bag. Scummo has no more cash to splash and he's got nothing else. Albo is moving in for the kill.  Grin Grin Grin
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juliar
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #79 - Jul 6th, 2020 at 12:20pm
 
The Big Mac is talking about Labor's panic over the very near miss. Albo is already past tense.

The Lib won on first votes. Only after the Shooters shot themselves in the foot did the Labor failure crawl across the line.
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John Smith
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #80 - Jul 6th, 2020 at 2:59pm
 
I see Juliar made bail Roll Eyes
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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.
 
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juliar
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #81 - Jul 6th, 2020 at 7:21pm
 
The forlorn Socialists are trying to take out their frustration on me for pointing out what a disaster Eden Monaro is for Labor where their crummy candidate was beaten on the first pass.

Now the dumb Eden Monaro residents can rue their stupidity as the Labor failure will and can do nothing for them and appears to have even blocked the distribution of relief funds to the bushfire victims as no doubt the plan was to distribute funds to the Socialists first.

And all the while the slimy GetUp! is lurking in the swamp.
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Bam
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #82 - Jul 7th, 2020 at 11:24am
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Jul 6th, 2020 at 10:41am:
It is a win ...

BUT

A by-election would normally see a swing against the government of between 3% and 4%.

This result is a small swing to the government. In a by-election!  Shocked

Last year, the winning margin was 1,685 votes.

This year ... in a by-election! ... the margin is currently 742 votes.

i.e. Labor went backwardsShocked That's with the donkey vote and leakage from the Nats!  Cheesy

On first preferences ... Labor is -3.20% Libs are +1.28%  Huh

"Mr. 26%*" has nothing to crow about.  Wink





* Albo's current Preferred PM rating.

Don't try electoral analysis. You're rubbish at it.

Again - since you seem to be a little slow understanding this - Mike Kelly's personal vote was about 3%. His personal vote was good enough in 2016 to win Eden-Monaro for an opposition party for the first time since 1969 and he retained it in 2019. Losing that personal vote explains almost the entire drop in Labor's vote.

Secondly, the election is being run at a time of great convenience for the government: at the height of the pandemic (where Morrison has succeeded in claiming some credit for the work of others) and not during the aftermath (the consequent economic issues). If you're smart, you would have noticed how the timing of some of the less popular decisions have been conveniently timed to fall after the by-election.

Thirdly, elections in Australia are not run using first past the post, it uses preferential voting. Citing primary votes is irrelevant without any objective analysis of preferences.

Fourthly, you're ignoring the reasonable quality of both major party candidates. Both locals, both polled well in their respective localities.

Lastly, you've not given any consideration to the field. In particular, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party did not run during the election but got around 5% of the vote this time. Their preferences split evenly. Palmer's party did not run this time, they did in 2016 (when they received 2.8% of the vote). What was the effect on the major parties' primary votes of these candidates? What about the other 11 candidates?

All in all, it was not a very good analysis. I could pick more holes in it, but what I have posted will do.
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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
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Bam
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #83 - Jul 7th, 2020 at 11:32am
 
John Smith wrote on Jul 6th, 2020 at 2:59pm:
I see Juliar made bail Roll Eyes

Maybe the Mafia or some illicit drug lord came through with the cash for the Libs again.
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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
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Captain Nemo
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Re: Eden-Monaro: Labor caught with unauthorised poster
Reply #84 - Jul 7th, 2020 at 12:01pm
 
BTW ...

I notice that the postal votes were still going in favour of the Libs by about 6% ... better than normal for Labor, but even after Labor put in a massive effort this time, they just can't seem to get those pesky postals to run in their favour.  Shocked
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The 2025 election could be a shocker.
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