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Will the Earth start cooling...? (Read 1821 times)
Jasin
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #15 - Dec 16th, 2019 at 6:19pm
 
Ajax wrote on Dec 15th, 2019 at 11:05am:
Minimum sun spot activity and volcanos erupting are but some of the conditions required to cool the Earth.

Time will tell.


https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/myownPapers-d/Summer_of_1816.pdf



The Prehistoric Atmosphere and Climate of the Dinosaur ages was one that was x3 times as thick with Oxygen which allowed Dinosaurs to become so big and carry such weight like 'swimming'. Not only that - the sky was always 'Hazy' from the Volcanic (and bushfires) activity, which gave the planet a nice constant 30C at the Equator and 10C at the Poles.

Due to Humanity's trashing of this planet like a teenager on Ice and with a Gun in his hand.
The Planet is trying to stabilise the situation before it really gets out of hand.  Wink
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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random
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #16 - Dec 16th, 2019 at 6:53pm
 
Ajax wrote on Dec 15th, 2019 at 11:44am:
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 15th, 2019 at 11:15am:
Ajax wrote on Dec 15th, 2019 at 11:05am:
Will the Earth start cooling...?

Minimum sun spot activity and volcanos erupting are but some of the conditions required to cool the Earth.



No

Sunspot minimum happens every 11 years or so. Effect is negligible

There has not been any increase in volcanic activity

CO2 levels are continuing to rise  Wink


If you really are concerned about the environment so much leave CO2 to the side for the moment, since none of the computer model predictions have come true.




Ajax is a shill.  Either that or he is seriously fuked in the head.

You choose.

The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly
https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/03/15/the-first-climate-model-...

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So many farkwits, so little time.
 
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lee
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #17 - Dec 17th, 2019 at 12:26pm
 
random wrote on Dec 16th, 2019 at 6:53pm:
The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly
https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/03/15/the-first-climate-model-...



So let's look at what the letter to Science magazine actually said.

From the letter -

"Seven older models missed the mark by as much as 0.1°C per decade. But the accuracy of five of those forecasts improved enough to match observations when the scientists adjusted a key input to the models: how much climate-changing pollution humans have emitted over the years."

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-climate-models-correctl...

Wow. so they adjusted the inputs and they performed better.

It wasn't CO2 it was ...pollution that caused the models to run hot.  Grin Grin Grin
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The_Barnacle
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #18 - Dec 18th, 2019 at 8:36pm
 
You seem to have forgotten to post this bit lee

Quote:
Hausfather found that most of this overshoot was caused not by a flaw in the model’s basic physics, however. Instead, it arose because pollution levels changed in ways Hansen didn’t predict. For example, the model overestimated the amount of methane—a potent greenhouse gas—that would go into the atmosphere in future years. It also didn’t foresee a precipitous drop in planet-warming refrigerants like some Freon compounds after international regulations from the Montreal Protocol became effective in 1989.


lets also not forget that while lee is quibbling over decimal places, the fact is that the models predicted warming and that's exactly what's being observed
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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
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lee
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #19 - Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:04pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 8:36pm:
You seem to have forgotten to post this bit lee



I also left out one of Hausfather's Tweets. I will include it now.

"Our implied TCR approach effectively accounts for mismatches between forcing mismatches between models and observations without the need to dig through punch cards and FORTRAN 77 code.."

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1202379211224150017

So what they did was parametrise the parameters and declared them good. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 8:36pm:
lets also not forget that while lee is quibbling over decimal places, the fact is that the models predicted warming and that's exactly what's being observed


Of course we could look at 1998 to 2019. According to NOAA it has warmed 0.5C globally. And Gavin Schmidt, Director of NASA GISS says they can estimate global temperatures to +/-0.5C.

So statistically speaking no difference. Wink
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The_Barnacle
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #20 - Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:10pm
 
lee wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:04pm:
Of course we could look at 1998 to 2019. According to NOAA it has warmed 0.5C globally. And Gavin Schmidt, Director of NASA GISS says they can estimate global temperatures to +/-0.5C.

So statistically speaking no difference. Wink


and why did you choose 1998 to 2019?  Wink
You do know that cherry picking data is a classic strategy of deniers   Grin
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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
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lee
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #21 - Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:21pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:10pm:
You do know that cherry picking data is a classic strategy of deniers



I also went back to 1969 ( the 50 years for the climate models). The change 0.7C. Now that's yuge. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin 

0.2C above their 0.5C uncertainty. And I doubt that their 0.5C uncertainty extends back that far. Wink
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The_Barnacle
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #22 - Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:29pm
 
lee wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:21pm:
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:10pm:
You do know that cherry picking data is a classic strategy of deniers



I also went back to 1969 ( the 50 years for the climate models). The change 0.7C. Now that's yuge. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin 

0.2C above their 0.5C uncertainty. And I doubt that their 0.5C uncertainty extends back that far. Wink


So how much has it got to warm before you are worried?
Scientists say that we should keep to no more than 1.5C. Even with your figures that's only a few decades away

Anyway, I've had my fun. You've once again shown what a pathetic debater you are  Grin


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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
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lee
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #23 - Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:52pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:29pm:
Scientists say that we should keep to no more than 1.5C



First it as 2C and not from climate scientists. Then when thta didn't engender enough panic they dropped it to 1.5C. And seeing as most temperature change is (according to CO2 theory) at night even that wouldn't do anything drastic.

People live in the tropics quite comfortably. Wink

The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:29pm:
Anyway, I've had my fun. You've once again shown what a pathetic debater you are



And yet you lost. Why is that? You so quickly stopped pontificating about the 50 years of models.Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Pho Huc
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #24 - Dec 19th, 2019 at 11:05am
 
lee wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:52pm:
The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:29pm:
Scientists say that we should keep to no more than 1.5C



First it as 2C and not from climate scientists. Then when thta didn't engender enough panic they dropped it to 1.5C. And seeing as most temperature change is (according to CO2 theory) at night even that wouldn't do anything drastic.

People live in the tropics quite comfortably. Wink

The_Barnacle wrote on Dec 18th, 2019 at 9:29pm:
Anyway, I've had my fun. You've once again shown what a pathetic debater you are



And yet you lost. Why is that? You so quickly stopped pontificating about the 50 years of models.Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


There are two explanations for why Lee lives on this site. A: It's his job to run disinformation. B:He has literally no life. Either explanation means his stated opinions are pretty meaningless.
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The law locks up the man who steals the goose from the common, but leaves the greater criminal loose who steals the common from the goose (convict saying)
 
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lee
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #25 - Dec 19th, 2019 at 1:07pm
 
Pho Huc wrote on Dec 19th, 2019 at 11:05am:
There are two explanations for why Lee lives on this site. A: It's his job to run disinformation. B:He has literally no life. Either explanation means his stated opinions are pretty meaningless.



Poor petal. And so recently taking me to task for going off topic.

perhaps you can come up with a valid argument? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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random
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #26 - Dec 19th, 2019 at 7:21pm
 
lee wrote on Dec 19th, 2019 at 1:07pm:
Pho Huc wrote on Dec 19th, 2019 at 11:05am:
There are two explanations for why Lee lives on this site. A: It's his job to run disinformation. B:He has literally no life. Either explanation means his stated opinions are pretty meaningless.



Poor petal. And so recently taking me to task for going off topic.

perhaps you can come up with a valid argument? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


I see what you did there, that's so awesome.

You call him out then no matter what he says you say it shite, unsubstantiated, not settled.

No wonder you got the gig bro, I'm jealous, I want in on the denial gravy train.

PM me, I can help the cause heeps.
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So many farkwits, so little time.
 
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lee
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #27 - Dec 19th, 2019 at 7:47pm
 
This is what random looks like
...
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random
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #28 - Dec 19th, 2019 at 7:52pm
 
lee wrote on Dec 19th, 2019 at 7:47pm:


...
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So many farkwits, so little time.
 
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lee
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Re: Will the Earth start cooling...?
Reply #29 - Dec 19th, 2019 at 7:56pm
 
Still delusions of competence. Grin Grin Grin Grin
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