Gosh another ICE AGE!!!! The Lunatic Extremist Greenies will be coughing up fur balls and frothing at the mouth.
They want people to believe in their nonsense about the World Ending and that their UN One World Socialist "Govt" in a Sustainable World is the ONLY SOLUTION that can save the world!!!Brrr! Whatever happened to Global warming ???
Will earth enter a mini ice age in 2030?Kirsten Hacker, PhD Accelerator Physics, University of Hamburg (2010) Updated Nov 4
There was a lot of pop-sci press discrediting Zharakova, the physicist who ended up on the front-page for her model of solar cycles and her prediction that we will have a cold spell centered around 2030, but the bad press came primarily from people who had an agenda: climate change fanatics and people whose solar models disagreed with hers.First of all, Zharakova is a professor, she collaborates with researchers from other institutes, and she has published her work in peer-reviewed journals. Her publication generated hype because she suggested that we would have a 50-year cold spell similar to the Dalton Minimum or the Maunder Minimum, times when agriculture was poor and the river Thames froze solid. These time periods were not good, but the human race survived, of course.
Her hypothesis is that the sun can be modeled as a two-layer system in which oscillations from those layers combine to form our sunspot cycles. The equation she uses is astoundingly simple but it fits the data over both long and short timescales very well. Researchers who develop more complicated models are understandably skeptical of her result since it would mean that their work was not necessary.
Her equation is a sum over a bunch of functions with the form Acos(wt+phi) * cos(Bcos(wt+phi)). She made a more complicated function by adding a term for a quadrupolar mode as well and that improved the fit, but, of course, adding more adjustable parameters always improves a fit.
Zharakova has a talk on youtube, but she doesn’t have pop-sci presentation skills, so it is easy to tune out simply because the style is not terribly ‘commercial’. If you skip ahead to around 25 minutes in, you get to the meat of the presentation. She basically did Fourier analysis of a segment of recent sunspot data and compared that to longer-term and short-term data.
She modeled the sun as having two layers with different oscillation frequencies which mix and it is rather surprising that her fit matches data over both 1000 years and over the past 35 years. It suggests that the oscillations in the sun are quite repeatable and understandable. Other experts insist that it is much more complicated and chaotic (nonlinear) than that.
Video: About this.
It might be more complicated, but that doesn’t mean that the simple model is wrong. Call it a first order approximation, but if it has predictive power over 1000 years and over 35 years, that is pretty darn good.
In any case, the model makes a testable prediction. If the sunspots are less frequent over the coming 20 years, she was right!
In response to human-caused climate change proponents, she did not claim expertise in the carbon-cycle, but she said that there is evidence that when the sun’s magnetic field is as weak as it is during a solar minimum, the earth tends to get colder not because the solar output is so greatly reduced, but because the charged particles from the solar wind influence cloud formation.
Another possibility is that a weak solar magnetic field corresponds to increased heat from the core of the Earth making it into the oceans and increasing evaporation (clouds).
She correctly points out that carbon-cycle based climate models do not incorporate the influence of magnetic fields on their models.
This is what I know about these issues:
How does earth's magnetic field protect us against solar wind?
https://www.quora.com/Planetary-Science-How-does-earths-magnetic-field-protect-u...Why is the magnetic field near the Arctic acting weird?
https://www.quora.com/Why-is-the-magnetic-field-near-the-Arctic-acting-weird/ans...https://www.quora.com/Will-earth-enter-a-mini-ice-age-in-2030