crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 3:17pm:

So no answer to my question then.

As for the evidence of the crumbling economy under Frydendud, if you're only relying on one report you're being naive. There is ample evidence of the moribund Australian economy sliding deeper into the mire. Annual GDP growth is at its lowest level since the GFC and the economy is only growing because we're importing 300,000 people a year. Unemployment is trending up. Wages growth is very weak. Everywhere you look there's signs of economic weakness. And the government hoards its consolidated tax revenue to itself so they can win a surplus pissing contest instead of enacting modest spending measures to maintain the economy, an approach that you have criticised in the past.

You can whine all you like with rubbish attacking the sources but this kind of fallacious argument will not convince anyone.

Defeated angry little Bammy is SO outclassed by the magnificent Croc it is like a cat playing with a mouse.

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 6:53pm:

You do know how conditionals work? If you are not relying on one report, just say so. It's really not that hard.

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 6:53pm:

Did I specifically say you "refuted" any of this? No.

The only actual attribution of your point of view here is your criticisms of budget surpluses, which are well known. You have made several remarks criticising budget surpluses in this thread: Most Want The Surplus Goal Abandoned, for example:

crocodile wrote on Sep 6^th, 2019 at 1:14pm:

crocodile wrote on Sep 7^th, 2019 at 6:06pm:

crocodile wrote on Sep 7^th, 2019 at 6:09pm:


Remarks, incidentally, that I agreed with.

Bam wrote on Sep 7^th, 2019 at 12:33pm:

Bammy and the Greeny Scunge - what a team. Knowledge is not power there. The Croc is playing with them like a cat with a mouse.

Maybe Croc is a secret adviser to ScoMo!!!!

But just think how much worse things would be now if Labor had gotten in and RESTARTED the BOATS and Illegal Invaders are pouring into Australia to go onto WELFARE for LIFE at the taxpayers' expense.

The magnificent Croc lays it into Bammy who is not even a challenge for the mighty Croc.

Will Bammy start a HATE SESSION with the Croc now ?

Thank Heavens Labor did not get in and thank Heavens for the wisdom of the Croc.

Now a look at things thru non Lefty/Greeny eyes who want to make things look as bad as possible.



Don’t look now, but the economy just might be perking up
Stephen Koukoulas Yahoo Finance 23 October 2019


Is the sun rising again on Australia's economy? (Source: Getty, Yahoo Finance)

Every month or so, I undertake a total revamp of my assessment and forecasts for the economy.

With this wipe-the-slate-clean revamp, I take account of the most up to date data, incorporate policy changes and I build in new judgments on the outlook for the global economy.

And so it was last week, when I was revamping my GDP forecasting spreadsheet to assess the risks of recession, the prospects for a booming rebound and all things in between.

It is a lot of fun and helps me to throw forward pre-empt how the economy and, importantly, financial markets will travel. That said, I am not one of those eggheads who lives and dies by what my model is telling me, but such spreadsheet fiddling makes me sit up and take notice of what is happening.

The last update, last week, was one of those times.

Economy to perk up in 2020: Here’s why
Indeed, for the first time in quite a while, I am getting a bit excited about the upside for the economy in 2020. Not a boom, but solid, strong, decent economic growth lies ahead.

In fact, I now put the chances of the economy falling into recession in 2020 or 2021 for that matter at about 0.1 per cent. Never say never, but I am more likely to beat Usain Bolt over 100 metres than the Australian economy is of cascading into recession.

Here’s the how and why of how I reached that conclusion.

Dwelling construction
Let’s start with some bad news.

It is pretty clear that dwelling investment (which makes up around 5 per cent of GDP) is set to fall by around 8 per cent in 2020. This means that by itself, we start my GDP build with a -0.4 percentage points on GDP (5 per cent times minus 8 per cent). That’s said, I am factoring in a housing construction rebound in the second half of 2020 as a supply shortage impacts property developers and house prices. That is a question that should see dwelling investment add to GDP in 2021.

Impact in 2020: -0.4 percentage points

Now the good news.

Private capital expenditure
In terms of private capital expenditure, which accounts for around 12 per cent of real GDP, the Bureau of Statistics expectations survey points to strong growth in 2020. Based on the hard data on expectations, it looks like private capex will rise by 9 per cent as businesses are gearing up for a lift in non-residential construction and strong growth in spending on plant and equipment (note we have a technology boom globally still happening).

Impact in 2020: +1.1 percentage points

Government consumption and investment
Government demand is spilt between consumption and investment – the latter includes some of the infrastructure boom being rolled out. Government consumption accounts for about 19 per cent of GDP while government investment is an additional 5 per cent. Based on government consumption growth of 3.25 per cent (very conservative given the NDIS roll out and more) and public investment growth of 6 per cent, government demand will contribute a hefty 0.9 percentage points to GDP.

Impact in 2020: +1.0 percentage points

Net exports
Net exports are a wild card. Export volumes are growing solidly and there is more upside in the output of gas and iron ore. Global economic growth looks like being firm which will help the export sector.

This will be offset somewhat by weakness on coal export volumes. In terms of services, the recent weakening in tourism and education may moderate. A hugely competitive Aussie dollar (and by that I mean anything under 75 US cents) and exports are likely to grow by around 6 per cent.

This nice addition to GDP will however, in my estimate, be more than completely offset by a surge in imports. That business investment lift, noted above, has a high import concentration, which means that net exports (exports minus imports) is likely to trim a small amount from bottom line GDP.

Impact in 2020: -0.2 percentage points

At this point, when we add up the contributions to GDP, we have growth in 2020 at 1.5 per cent.

Of course, I have not yet covered the biggy for the economy – household consumption.

This non Lefty/Greeny jaundiced view continues overleaf

Things are not nearly as bad as the Lefty/Greeny pessimists try to make out.  Certainly nowhere near as bad as they would be if Labor had got in.



‘Absolutely no surprise’: Leading economist brushes off economic growth downgrade
Anastasia Santoreneos Yahoo Finance 16 October 2019


Australia's economic downgrade is 'no surprise', says leading economist. Source: Getty

Australia’s expected economic growth this year has been downgraded to 1.7 per cent from 2.1 per cent by the International Monetary Fund, but leading economist Stephen Koukoulas isn’t surprised, nor worried.




We’re not headed for a recession
Koukoulas said the IMF was forecasting a pick up, and not an economic crisis in Australia next year.

“I think the IMF reports reflect the gentle upturn in the economy, when we look at things like infrastructure, spending, mining, export volumes - they’re all doing really well, and that’s why we’re not going to have a recession.”

Koukoulas said Australia’s GDP would become strong again.

“Not very strong, but the capital, the mining, the infrastructure, the exports...Not great, but not catastrophic.”

Australian economy still facing headwinds
Responding to IMF’s downgraded forecasts, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said “we do face headwinds”.

"The international challenges are a stark reminder of why we must stick to our economic plan, which will deliver lower taxes so Australians can keep more of what they earn,” he said.



But we will need another rate cut
We will need some more interest rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending, Koukoulas said.

“The RBA addressed this in their minutes yesterday - we might actually get a little bit of movement out of Canberra,” he said.

We’ve had three rate cuts this year, and there will be more to come in November or December, Koukoulas said.

We could also see the budget surplus reduced slightly and some fiscal policy stimulus by the end of the year, Koukoulas said.

“That seems to be increasing in probability.”

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-brushes-off-australia-economic-growt...