Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Pages: 1 2 3 4 ... 7
Send Topic Print
Hockey Stick Broken. (Read 4394 times)
lee
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics

Posts: 16401
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #15 - Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:29pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:24pm:
Europe makes up a very small part of the world 



And yet make up most of the statistics Did you look at that picture? 10 whole sites in the Southern Hemisphere between 1880 to now.

That is those stations with a complete record since 1880. Wink

Of course you wouldn't see the bias that would introduce. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Bam
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21905
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #16 - Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:34pm
 
Ajax wrote on Aug 28th, 2019 at 6:17pm:


Oh, look. Cherrypicked data!  Grin Grin Grin Let's ignore 98% of the earth's surface and just pretend this other 2% is representative of the whole.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Back to top
 

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics

Posts: 16401
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #17 - Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:47pm
 
Bam wrote on Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:34pm:
Oh, look. Cherrypicked data!     Let's ignore 98% of the earth's surface and just pretend this other 2% is representative of the whole. 



So you prefer to cherrypick the Northern half of the world? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Of course that ignores the papers that show the MWP and LIA also existed in the Southern Hemisphere.

Talk about a cherry pick. You do like your cherry pies. Wink

"Oxygen isotope studies in Greenland, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Tibet, China, New Zealand, and elsewhere, plus tree-ring data from many sites around the world, all confirm the existence of a global MWP. Soon and Baliunas (2003) found that 92% of 112 studies showed physical evidence of the MWP, only 2 showed no evidence, and 21 of 22 studies in the Southern Hemisphere showed evidence of Medieval warming."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/medieval-warm-...
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
The_Barnacle
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 6205
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #18 - Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:51pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:29pm:
The_Barnacle wrote on Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:24pm:
Europe makes up a very small part of the world 



And yet make up most of the statistics Did you look at that picture? 10 whole sites in the Southern Hemisphere between 1880 to now.

That is those stations with a complete record since 1880. Wink



So how many with an incomplete (but still relevant) record?

And thats still 10 more southern hemisphere sites than Europe has  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


Quote:
Europe covers about 10,180,000 square kilometres (3,930,000 sq mi), or 2% of the Earth's surface

Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Back to top
 

The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics

Posts: 16401
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #19 - Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:54pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on Aug 28th, 2019 at 9:51pm:
And thats still 10 more southern hemisphere sites than Europe has


Naturally. Europe doesn't exist in the Southern hemisphere. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
philperth2010
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 19625
Perth
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #20 - Aug 28th, 2019 at 10:05pm
 
Quote:
"Climate deniers like to make it seem like the entire weight of evidence for climate change rests on the hockey stick," explains Mann. "And that's not the case. We could get rid of all these reconstructions, and we could still know that climate change is a threat, and that we're causing it." The basic case for global warming caused by humans rests on basic physics--and, basic thermometer readings from around the globe. The hockey stick, in contrast, is the result of a field of research called paleoclimatology (the study of past climates) that, while fascinating, only provides one thread of evidence among many for what we're doing to the planet.


Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/05/the-hockey-stick-the-most...
Back to top
 

If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them.
Isaac Asimov (1920 - 1992)
 
IP Logged
 
The_Barnacle
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 6205
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #21 - Aug 28th, 2019 at 10:11pm
 
Climate myths: It was warmer during the Medieval period



There are a dozen or so temperature reconstructions for the northern hemisphere that go back beyond 1600, including the so-called “hockey stick” (see Climate myths: The ‘hockey stick’ graph has been proven wrong). These studies suggest there were periods of unusual warmth from around AD 900 to AD 1300, but details vary widely in each reconstruction.

In the southern hemisphere, the picture is even more mixed, with evidence of both warm and cool periods around this time. The Medieval Warm Period may have been mostly a regional phenomenon, with the extremes reflecting a redistribution of heat around the planet rather than a big overall rise in the average global temperature.

What is clear, both from the temperature reconstructions and from independent evidence – such as the extent of the recent melting of mountain glaciers – is that the planet has been warmer in the past few decades than at any time during the medieval period.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11644-climate-myths-it-was-warmer-during-...
Back to top
 

The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Online


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 47366
At my desk.
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #22 - Aug 28th, 2019 at 10:41pm
 
...

Ajax wrote on Aug 28th, 2019 at 6:17pm:
https://i.ibb.co/NWFzr6v/Mannvs-Ball.jpg

For those that are saying these graphs aren’t measuring the same thing, I ask why……?


It's written on the graphs Ajax. That's why. It takes about 3 seconds to see the first hole in this BS.
Back to top
 

I identify as Mail because all I do is SendIT!
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Prime Minister for Canyons
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 26906
Canberra
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #23 - Aug 29th, 2019 at 7:37am
 
Ajax wrote on Aug 28th, 2019 at 6:17pm:
https://i.ibb.co/NWFzr6v/Mannvs-Ball.jpg

For those that are saying these graphs aren’t measuring the same thing, I ask why……?

[/img]



Its pretty damn easy when you look at the y axes of the graphs. One is temperature anomaly, which in this graph wasn't even spelt correctly and the other is measuring average temperature.
Back to top
 

In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Online


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 47366
At my desk.
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #24 - Aug 29th, 2019 at 7:51am
 
It is hardly broken, except in the fevered minds of denialists who are blinded by ideology and a desperation to reject reality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph

...

The original northern hemisphere hockey stick graph of Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999, smoothed curve shown in blue with its uncertainty range in light blue, overlaid with green dots showing the 30-year global average of the PAGES 2k Consortium 2013 reconstruction. The red curve shows measured global mean temperature, according to HadCRUT4 data from 1850 to 2013.

Quote:
A version of the MBH99 graph was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), which also drew on Jones et al. 1998 and three other reconstructions to support the conclusion that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the 1990s was likely to have been the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year during the past 1,000 years.[8] The graph became a focus of dispute for those opposed to the strengthening scientific consensus that late 20th century warmth was exceptional.[9] In 2003, as lobbying over the 1997 Kyoto Protocol intensified, a paper claiming greater medieval warmth was quickly dismissed by scientists in the Soon and Baliunas controversy.[10] Later in 2003, Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick published McIntyre & McKitrick 2003 disputing the data used in MBH98 paper. In 2004 Hans von Storch published criticism of the statistical techniques as tending to underplay variations in earlier parts of the graph, though this was disputed and he later accepted that the effect was very small.[11] In 2005 McIntyre and McKitrick published criticisms of the principal components analysis methodology as used in MBH98 and MBH99. Their analysis was subsequently disputed by published papers including Huybers 2005 and Wahl & Ammann 2007 which pointed to errors in the McIntyre and McKitrick methodology. Political disputes led to the formation of a panel of scientists convened by the United States National Research Council, their North Report in 2006 supported Mann's findings with some qualifications, including agreeing that there were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the result.[12]

More than two dozen reconstructions, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, support the broad consensus shown in the original 1998 hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears.[12][13] The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions, 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer, to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at least the past 1,300 years.[14] Further reconstructions, including Mann et al. 2008 and PAGES 2k Consortium 2013, have supported these general conclusions.


Why do the denialists always get it so badly (and transparently) wrong?
Back to top
 

I identify as Mail because all I do is SendIT!
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Gnads
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 28041
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #25 - Aug 29th, 2019 at 8:13am
 
Here chook chook!
Back to top
 

Henny_Penny.jpg (14 KB | 13 )
Henny_Penny.jpg

"When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid." ~ Ricky Gervais
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Online


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 47366
At my desk.
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #26 - Aug 29th, 2019 at 8:27am
 
When the facts disagree with you, try a cartoon instead.
Back to top
 

I identify as Mail because all I do is SendIT!
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Gnads
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 28041
Gender: male
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #27 - Aug 29th, 2019 at 8:34am
 
ewwwww tetchy tetchy  Grin
Back to top
 

"When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid." ~ Ricky Gervais
 
IP Logged
 
cods
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 88048
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #28 - Aug 29th, 2019 at 8:37am
 
the denialists are not taking time off from work or school to parade through the streets  stopping others from going about their business....

in fact all they mostly do is argue  on forums lie this........

do they stop pollies traveling the world at the drop of a hat......in emission creating aircraft to have meetings in Large Emission creating cities????....

not that I have seen... Undecided


people have a right to challenge scientists my experience is they change their minds 20 years after making a claim......

dont forget we have scientists to thank for the Atom Bomb and WMD..they are not perfect like you want them to be.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Online


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 47366
At my desk.
Re: Hockey Stick Broken.
Reply #29 - Aug 29th, 2019 at 8:47am
 
Science is a search for truth, not perfection.
Back to top
 

I identify as Mail because all I do is SendIT!
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Pages: 1 2 3 4 ... 7
Send Topic Print