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Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG (Read 444 times)
Laugh till you cry
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Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Aug 12th, 2019 at 3:01pm
 
Thingz is crook. Its only immigration that is producing a positive effect in the economy.

...

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-house-price-falls-economic-impact-2...

Quote:
The charts that prove Australia's house price downturn really is BIG (and why some are concerned about what it may mean for the economy)

DAVID SCUTT
APR 9, 2019, 10:03 AM

Australian home prices have been falling since late 2017. Many suspect the downswing will last for quite a while yet.
The current downturn is now one of the largest on record, only surpassed by a handful of periods in the late 1800s and the first half of the 20th century.
It also rivals or has exceeded some of the declines seen in overseas markets during the GFC.
The family home is the largest store of wealth for most Australian families.
Coupled with weak household incomes growth, there’s no shortage of economists out there who believe it will weigh on household spending, potentially dragging on economic growth and inflation and putting upward pressure on unemployment. That explains why so many believe the RBA will cut rates again.
The RBA acknowledged earlier this month that weak incomes growth and falling home prices was impacting on spending levels.
No matter which way you look at it – be it from an historical perspective locally or compared to declines seen offshore during the global financial crisis — there’s now little doubt that the downturn in Australian home prices is getting pretty big.

It’s now one of the largest on record in Australia, only surpassed by a handful of periods in the late 1800s and the first half of the 20th century.

While the declines have not been uniform in nature, including in some specific markets where prices have not actually fallen at all, it’s now safe to call this national downturn the largest in modern history.

These excellent charts from the National Australia Bank show just how large it’s been compared to periods in the past, both from a domestic and international perspective.

At 8%, the average capital city price decline has only been surpassed on six separate occasions in Australia since the late 19th century. ...
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #1 - Aug 12th, 2019 at 3:33pm
 
And yet real estate agents are talking up the market.  Smiley
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Gordon
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #2 - Aug 12th, 2019 at 4:14pm
 
Where’s the data on volume which would help compare now to previous downturns, and are we lumping in new and off the plan apartment sales (which are tanking) with houses ?
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #3 - Aug 12th, 2019 at 4:19pm
 
Gordon wrote on Aug 12th, 2019 at 4:14pm:
Where’s the data on volume which would help compare now to previous downturns, and are we lumping in new and off the plan apartment sales (which are tanking) with houses ?


I sense fear and panic.

A house price downturn has a wider effect because it signals a loss of wealth to property owners. Especially those who have recently purchased a SUV.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #4 - Aug 12th, 2019 at 4:23pm
 
Laugh till you cry wrote on Aug 12th, 2019 at 4:19pm:
Gordon wrote on Aug 12th, 2019 at 4:14pm:
Where’s the data on volume which would help compare now to previous downturns, and are we lumping in new and off the plan apartment sales (which are tanking) with houses ?


I sense fear and panic.

A house price downturn has a wider effect because it signals a loss of wealth to property owners. Especially those who have recently purchased a SUV.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


So you don’t have any data on volumes.
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #5 - Aug 12th, 2019 at 11:33pm
 
People gotta run out of money sometime, banks are raising the bar on loans, and we are edging towards war with China, meaning that the Chinese government will no longer give interest free or low interest loans to its citizens to buy our country out from under us.

It's a daily event nowadays - the stock market rises on commodities/resources to China, then next day the market falls due to China stopping the flow... economic warfare at its best.  Then the Chinese government manipulates the currency market by valuing and devaluing its money....*

No downturn here - the people in the Big Smoke are still selling as quickly as they can and looking for the sea-change.


*
told yez before - I like Chinese - it's their government that sucks - ask the Honkers when the tanks roll in..... also those medium range non-nuclear missiles are just the thing to take out those artificial islands the Chinese government is building to expand its control over the Asian-Pacific Basin...... they'll be arriving here at a midnight drear - I'm beginning to warm to Hastie ......
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #6 - Aug 12th, 2019 at 11:38pm
 
Corrections are inevitable and a part of any financial cycle. I dont worry too much because I never sell in a correction.
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #7 - Aug 12th, 2019 at 11:59pm
 
Gordon wrote on Aug 12th, 2019 at 4:14pm:
Where’s the data on volume which would help compare now to previous downturns, and are we lumping in new and off the plan apartment sales (which are tanking) with houses ?


that is quite a good article

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-house-price-falls-economic-impact-2...

yes, volume of sales is important and is not seen.

Real estate declines are not transparent.
volume is a good indicator

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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #8 - Aug 13th, 2019 at 12:00am
 
rhino wrote on Aug 12th, 2019 at 11:38pm:
Corrections are inevitable and a part of any financial cycle. I dont worry too much because I never sell in a correction.



well, you must be worth quite a few billion then.
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #9 - Aug 13th, 2019 at 4:59pm
 
fell 8% .... whoopdedoo ... it's gone up an average of 100% over the last decade across the country. It's gonna take a lot more than one bad year before you twits waiting for a bubble burst can jump for joy
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #10 - Aug 13th, 2019 at 5:09pm
 
John Smith wrote on Aug 13th, 2019 at 4:59pm:
fell 8% .... whoopdedoo ... it's gone up an average of 100% over the last decade across the country. It's gonna take a lot more than one bad year before you twits waiting for a bubble burst can jump for joy


400% around here over the last two decades.
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #11 - Aug 13th, 2019 at 5:37pm
 
Setanta wrote on Aug 13th, 2019 at 5:09pm:
John Smith wrote on Aug 13th, 2019 at 4:59pm:
fell 8% .... whoopdedoo ... it's gone up an average of 100% over the last decade across the country. It's gonna take a lot more than one bad year before you twits waiting for a bubble burst can jump for joy


400% around here over the last two decades.


How's the market up your way doing?

New apartments in Sydney are in huge oversupply and the conga line of Chinese buyers has stopped, so it's a bloodbath.

Some houses in areas there are/were very in demand by Chinese buyers have taken a hit, but only by 15%, and that's the worst of it. Some areas that were a little under the radar during the boom are rising.

Apart from apartments, the drops in housing prices need to be framed against very low turnover volume, so as John said, whoopdedoo.

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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #12 - Aug 13th, 2019 at 8:39pm
 
Gordon wrote on Aug 13th, 2019 at 5:37pm:
Setanta wrote on Aug 13th, 2019 at 5:09pm:
John Smith wrote on Aug 13th, 2019 at 4:59pm:
fell 8% .... whoopdedoo ... it's gone up an average of 100% over the last decade across the country. It's gonna take a lot more than one bad year before you twits waiting for a bubble burst can jump for joy


400% around here over the last two decades.


How's the market up your way doing?

New apartments in Sydney are in huge oversupply and the conga line of Chinese buyers has stopped, so it's a bloodbath.

Some houses in areas there are/were very in demand by Chinese buyers have taken a hit, but only by 15%, and that's the worst of it. Some areas that were a little under the radar during the boom are rising.

Apart from apartments, the drops in housing prices need to be framed against very low turnover volume, so as John said, whoopdedoo.



Haven't been looking at prices recently but houses aren't staying on the market long. Picked up some furniture from one around the corner a couple of weeks ago, it was on the market for four days before being sold.
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #13 - Aug 13th, 2019 at 11:00pm
 
Gordon wrote on Aug 12th, 2019 at 4:14pm:
Where’s the data on volume which would help compare now to previous downturns, and are we lumping in new and off the plan apartment sales (which are tanking) with houses ?


One can still pick up a cheap ex-toilet block in Harris Park, dear. They say you can fit 4 Curries to a stall. With a few capital works - plumbing, urinals, etc - that's gold.

Money for stool, innit.
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Re: Charts prove Oz house price downturn really is BIG
Reply #14 - Aug 13th, 2019 at 11:12pm
 
We gained over 15% pa on our last place - and this one keeps on rising....

Solar panels are estimated to have added $40k, and, as usual, we just keep on improving it... better everything.... just in the blood, I think.  From bank estimates, it's gone up around .. well .. a heap in four months.... and growing...   Cool ... at least 10-12% in four months including the solar....

Wait until we've been here two years and the estate goes in opposite... and the bypass so the traffic goes around and not past .......and I finish my man cave and my gardens and stuff .... water tank etc for the plants ... solar hot water.....  batteries for the solar power ..... that's the big one on cost effectiveness... right next to the high school ..... five minutes from shops and water at the back....

It's called work..... you gotta give some to get some .... and I've given my bit and still do....

Not bad for an old bastard who's in hospital tomorrow..... back Saturday, youse lot.... but I'm taking the laptop with me... and a book.....
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« Last Edit: Aug 13th, 2019 at 11:25pm by Ye Grappler »  

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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