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UAE’s ambitions backfire in U.S.-Iran tensions (Read 402 times)
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UAE’s ambitions backfire in U.S.-Iran tensions
Aug 12th, 2019 at 12:11pm
 
UAE is extremely vulnerable with 90% expat population who would flee in case of intense conflict.

UAE economy would collapse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the-uaes-ambitions-backfire-as-it-finds-its...

Quote:
The UAE’s ambitions backfire as it finds itself on the front line of U.S.-Iran tensions

By Liz Sly August 11 at 7:12 PM

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — One of America’s staunchest allies in the Middle East and a driving force behind President Trump’s hard-line approach to Iran is breaking ranks with Washington, calling into question how reliable an ally it would be in the event of a war between the United States and Iran.

In the weeks since the United States dispatched naval reinforcements to the Persian Gulf to deter Iranian threats to shipping, the government of the United Arab Emirates has sent a coast guard delegation to Tehran to discuss maritime security, putting it at odds with Washington’s goal of isolating Iran. After limpet mines exploded on tankers off the UAE’s coast in June, the UAE stood apart from the United States and Saudi Arabia and declined to blame Iran.

It also announced a drawdown of troops from Yemen, where, alongside Saudi Arabia, it has been battling Iranian-backed Houthis for control of the country. That opened the door this past weekend to a takeover by UAE-backed separatist militias of the U.S.-supported government in the city of Aden, a further divergence from U.S. policy.

Former U.S. defense secretary Jim Mattis once nicknamed the UAE “Little Sparta” because of its stalwart support for U.S. military ventures around the world, including in Somalia and Afghanistan. Much of the recent war against the Islamic State was launched from the U.S. air base located at al-Dhafra in the UAE, an integral part of America’s security footprint in the Middle East.

But as its relationship with Washington puts the UAE on the front line of a potential war, the Emiratis are shifting gears, calling for de-escalation with Iran and distancing themselves from the Trump administration’s bellicose rhetoric.

“The UAE does not want war. The most important thing is security and stability and bringing peace to this part of the world,” said an Emirati official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive foreign policy issues.

Whether the United States could count on Emirati support should the current tensions lead to war with Iran may now be in doubt, diplomats and analysts say.

“The UAE is increasingly tilting away from U.S. objectives,” said Theodore Karasik of the Washington-based Gulf State Analytics. “Is it the weak link in the Trump policy of maximum pressure? It may be.”

This is not the first time UAE policies have diverged from those of Washington. The small but fabulously wealthy country has over the past decade steadily expanded its reach across the Middle East in pursuit of an agenda driven largely by the staunch opposition of its powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed, to all forms of political Islam.   

The UAE sponsored the 2013 coup in Egypt that overthrew country’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, whose Muslim Brotherhood government was supported by the United States. It has backed the renegade warlord Khalifa Hifter against the U.S.- and U.N.-backed government in Libya, which is aligned with Islamist militias. It spearheaded a blockade alongside Saudi Arabia against Qatar, an ally of the United States that has promoted Islamist movements in the region.

Abu Dhabi has also embarked on an influence campaign in Washington that has given the UAE a potent voice in the White House, helping shape Middle East policy at the highest levels. The UAE was a vocal critic of the 2015 nuclear pact signed by the United States and other world powers with Iran, and it supported Trump’s decision to walk away from the deal last year.

The UAE never intended the U.S. withdrawal from the deal to lead to confrontations such as those that have taken place in the Persian Gulf, Emirati officials say. Rather, they say, the UAE continues to hope, in line with Washington’s declared policy, that the tough sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration will bring Iran back to the negotiating table.

Instead, Iran has pushed back, embarking on a campaign of threats and harassment against shipping in the Persian Gulf that has drawn U.S. and British naval reinforcements to the area — and appears to have caught the UAE off guard.


The UAE’s location, economy and reputation as a safe haven for foreigners make it uniquely susceptible to the fallout from even a low-level confrontation, perhaps more than any other country in the region, analysts say. The Strait of Hormuz, where war is most likely to break out, envelops the Emirati coastline and the UAE depends on the waterway for the trade on which its economy has soared.

To build the skyscrapers and service the hotels that have attracted tourists and business executives less welcome in many other parts of the Middle East, the country has recruited foreigners from around the world. Expatriates account for about 90 percent of the UAE’s population, and they sustain almost all of its vital infrastructure, including hospitals, the police and the armed forces.

The entire country could be brought to a halt if foreigners were to become frightened and leave ...
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Re: UAE’s ambitions backfire in U.S.-Iran tensions
Reply #1 - Aug 12th, 2019 at 12:20pm
 
It has already affected Middle East Airlines as Iran has no interest in allowing overflight if it cannot be paid for those flights. That is apart from the risk of accidental or intentional aircraft shootdown by missiles.

So far, the USA is the only country to have shot down a civilian airliner in the Middle East.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/06/22/airlines-warned-threat-of-civ...

Quote:
More Passenger Flights Reroute Due To 'Real Threat' Of Iran Missile Attack (Updated)
Zak Doffman

In a chilling coincidence, the same week investigators charged three Russians and a Ukrainian with the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014—killing 298 passengers and crew, an airline industry advisory group has warned operators of the risks of a repeat incident over Iran.

OPS Group warned that the downing of a U.S. drone by Iran "represents an escalation in the current situation that crosses a threshold" for airlines overflying the area or "using airports like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah, Muscat, and Fujairah." OPS drew parallels with MH17: "We should remember the build-up to that shoot down took several months, and there are the warning signs here that we must pay close attention to. In the lead up to MH17, 16 military aircraft were shot down before MH17 became the 17th."

As has been widely reported, the FAA has instructed U.S. operators not to overfly Iranian airspace due to "heightened military activity" and the "inadvertent" risk to civil aviation. On Thursday the FAA issued its warning, tweeting a few hours later that "flights are not permitted in the overwater area of the Tehran Flight Information Region until further notice, due to heightened military activities and increased political tensions."


Although the FAA ban only applies to U.S. airlines, more carriers are lining up to follow suit. British Airways, KLM, Qantas and Lufthansa all confirmed they will adhere to the advice, following the shooting down of a U.S. drone on June 19. The FAA reported that "there were numerous civil aviation aircraft operating in the area at the time of the intercept," with the nearest just 45 nautical miles away.

For aircraft traversing the Middle East, this is an issue that can be overcome. But for the large Gulf carriers with hubs in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and Qatar, this could become very painful indeed. Abu Dhabi-based Etihad told AP "we will decide what further action is required after carefully evaluating the FAA directive to U.S. carriers." This was echoed by Dubai-based Emirates, which has taken "precautionary measures including rerouting all flights away from areas of possible conflict," as reported by Gulf News. 
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