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How did the polls get it so wrong? (Read 2459 times)
minarchist
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How did the polls get it so wrong?
May 19th, 2019 at 5:09am
 
I vote for the Liberal Democrats whenever I get the chance, but like many I thought Labor were going to win. The simple reason is that polling for the last 2 - 3 years on a 2PP basis was almost always in favour of Labor, even by surveys that can be considered to be LNP - leaning.

So how did the polls get it so wrong? Does it have something to do with the scope of the people it surveys - is it too "city-centric" for lack of a better term? Bill Shorten was always runner up in the "Preferred PM" polls, even when Scott Morrison became leader. I'm assuming that this was probably one of the main reasons why the public favoured the LNP on Election Day.
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aquascoot
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #1 - May 19th, 2019 at 6:03am
 
minarchist.

this election, brexit, trump, 

what is going on?

i think it is this.

when people are speaking to a pollster, they are in the logical part of their brain, they are being asked logical questions  and they give logical replies.

but when people are choosing a leader, they THINK they use the logical part of their brain but they actually vote their emotional state and not their logical state.

there is NO DOUBT, that from a logical perspective, the policies of trump, of scomo and of brexit arent really that appealing to fat steve and fat janeen.

steve and janeen and joe lunchbox and mike six-pack are in a durr state and they just have got used to "taking " in life.

they take from the sugary spicy food, they take from the iphone and the netflix, they take from the porn, and they definitely want to TAKE from government.
they want want want
they are so NEEDY.
they dont have a contributory bone in their body!!.

but heres what you need to understand about how their emotional state trips them up.

when you are a taker, you are really looking for a source of energy to leech off of.
i say this all the time.

People are (subconsciously) ATTRACTED to anyone who is in high vibration because they can value leech good emotions off them.

when people walk into a party, the dumbies in the durr state all gravitiate to the one guy who is cracking jokes, laughing and giving off good energy.

now think carefully.

does Bill give off good energy.
does tanya plibosek
does penny wong
does chris bowen.
does sally mcmanus.

their energy is so low, they are stuck in this energy field of "YUK".
from so many years of being either in the unions (toxic complaining and taking) or being public intellectuals (toxic complaining, virtue signalling, call out culture, fake offence and fake moral superiority), they have DEMOLISHED anything that was fun, joyful, expansive and playful about themselves.


contrast thiose guys with hawke who was fun, joyful, playful and expansive and thats the reason the polls get it wrong.

a pollster isnt fun and people wont vibe with a pollster and they give the pollster one set of answers.

but when the party starts, they dont want to be stuck for 4 years talking to bill shorten or hilary clinton when they could be vibing with trump or scomo who have much better energy.

the entertainment fantasy complex has come to politics.
ignore it at your peril.

(one thing you could say about rudd is ...high energy),
one thing you could say about abbott is ...low energy...at least in front of the camera.
learn to raise your vibrational energy or you are screwed
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Zen Kangaroo
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #2 - May 19th, 2019 at 6:25am
 
So, shorter version, people are stupid and easily mislead.
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Even with so much free real estate, I think I'd be more content being the Roo I want to be, not lowering myself down to the sewers with the usual suspects.
 
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Yadda
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #3 - May 19th, 2019 at 6:25am
 
aquascoot wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 6:03am:
minarchist.



......but heres what you need to understand.....

when you are a taker, you are really looking for a source of energy to leech off of.
i say this all the time.

People are (subconsciously) ATTRACTED to anyone who is in high vibration because they can value leech good emotions off them.




That sounds/'vibes' as correct aqua, to me.


Every time i saw him on the TV,    Bill Shorten didn't vibe, or carry himself, as genuine, to me, during the campaign.

In contrast, every time i saw him on the TV,    Scott Morrison, seemed genuine and upbeat, in his 'messaging'.




Anyone heard how Fraser Anning's party went, in the Senate election ?



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"....And he said unto him, If they hear not Moses and the prophets, neither will they be persuaded, though one rose from the dead." Luke 16:31
 
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Baronvonrort
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #4 - May 19th, 2019 at 7:32am
 
Bull Shitten lost every preferred PM poll, perhaps they were the only accurate polls.
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PZ547
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #5 - May 19th, 2019 at 7:34am
 
Quote:
now think carefully.

does Bill give off good energy.
does tanya plibosek
does penny wong
does chris bowen.
does sally McManus



nutshell
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juliar
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #6 - May 19th, 2019 at 7:42am
 
I have long suspected that ScoMo was telling NewsPoll what results he wanted as part of his strategy to frighten the beJesus out of the voters by making them think Labor was going to win and drag Australia down into the SEWERS of SOCIALISM.
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #7 - May 19th, 2019 at 8:39am
 
That reply by Aquascoot about energy being vibrated is particularly true. Unfortunately, Bill doesn't have it, neither does Chris Bowen and a few other high profile Labor people.


Labor have lost their Enthusiasm for life, sure people might be in a tough situation, but are looking for hope and enthusiasm to get them through the day.

ScoMo had it in buckets but the Labor Leadership were too Conservative in their message and delivery.
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juliar
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #8 - May 19th, 2019 at 8:49am
 
The trouble is that Shorty has the charisma of a cadaver or piece of roadkill.

He is a terrible speaker so wooden and boring.

actually the polls got it pretty close with 49 to 51.
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PZ547
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #9 - May 19th, 2019 at 8:53am
 
juliar wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 8:49am:
The trouble is that Shorty has the charisma of a cadaver or piece of roadkill.

He is a terrible speaker so wooden and boring.

actually the polls got it pretty close with 49 to 51.



Grin
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Zen Kangaroo
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #10 - May 19th, 2019 at 9:08am
 
Another 4 years of popularity and lies over good policy.
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Even with so much free real estate, I think I'd be more content being the Roo I want to be, not lowering myself down to the sewers with the usual suspects.
 
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #11 - May 19th, 2019 at 9:45am
 
According to Antony Green (on the ABC last night) it's because people don't use landlines any more. This makes it a lot harder to get a representative sample.

I would add to that that after dealing with email spam all day, people are more likely to just hang up on spam phone calls.
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #12 - May 19th, 2019 at 9:50am
 
freediver wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 9:45am:
According to Antony Green (on the ABC last night) it's because people don't use landlines any more. This makes it a lot harder to get a representative sample.

I would add to that that after dealing with email spam all day, people are more likely to just hang up on spam phone calls.


I hung up on 70% and lied to 30% my view is none of their business.
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #13 - May 19th, 2019 at 9:54am
 
It is possible that the numbers changed in the Last week. News Ltd stepped up their propaganda campaign in the final week or two going. The right media going as far as to revive the shorten rape case in the shadows of the post.

Also the right wing splinter party's attracted votes that went to the Liberals. The sneaky indirect Liberal vote has grown substantially.
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Gordon
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Re: How did the polls get it so wrong?
Reply #14 - May 19th, 2019 at 10:06am
 
Dnarever wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 9:54am:
It is possible that the numbers changed in the Last week. News Ltd stepped up their propaganda campaign in the final week or two going. The right media going as far as to revive the shorten rape case in the shadows of the post.

Also the right wing splinter party's attracted votes that went to the Liberals. The sneaky indirect Liberal vote has grown substantially.


Nope.

6 years of negative polls about Shorten and a mistrust of Labor's tax grab.

Australia didn't like the leader or the policies. Simple.
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